Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.505/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat ahead of WASDE; Cattle and Beef Prices Running Red-Hot
Corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded higher overnight on growing optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though markets could not hold those gains. The talks in London made solid progress and negotiations are reportedly on track with the Geneva agreement that is allowing broader trade...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 June 2025 The grain market continued the transition from old crop to new crop meaning that the bearish trend is now across the board for all grains. The biggest bear was registered in the wheat belt which is located close to the export terminals as export dema...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $0.4 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Grain markets in the MENA region are quiet due to the Musim Eid holidays that extends through 9 June. The FAO forecast Egypt to have above average grain crops in 2025, much of which is due to improved availability of high yi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearish chart conditions driving the sentiment. The index fund roll ticked off its second of five days on Monday, so spreads and volumes patterns...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 9 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.5/short ton, down $0.2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.3 percentage points over the past week and reached 43.8 percent of the estimated area nationwide. Progress remains slow due to high grain moisture and inaccessible soils in some regions. Still, harvest pace is 8 points ahead of last year &mda...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s recent strikes against Ukraine and poor progress in peace talks between the two countries in Istanbul have added “war risk” premia back into several markets, including wheat. Farmers in Spain and France were protesting, again, agricultural im...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bearish the major ag markets, last week with steady net selling across the grains and oilseed complex. Funds expanded their net short position across all ags by roughly 4.7 times last week and now hold a meaningful pos...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.7/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Export Sale
Export Sales and Shipments for May 23-29, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 49,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025. Export shipments of 540,100 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Indonesia (81,100 M...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $0 from...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $2.6 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 – 30 May 2025 The grain market was more similar to an end of June market rather than end of May. A new season seems to have started a month earlier. Wheat and barley prices in the south near the ports plummeted to new level. Usually transition from old crop to ne...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has said that it could buy additional U.S. soybeans in order to eliminate the small trade surplus that the country has with the U.S. in order to avoid any tariffs now being set by the U.S. government. Pakistan’s Nat...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.9/short ton, down $2.4...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay is no longer primarily due to the soybean harvest but is now driven by persistent high grain moisture and excess water in many fields. The m...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The UK, most of northern/central Europe, parts of eastern Europe and the eastern Black Sea all received beneficial rainfall last week, with volumes concentrated in the UK, Germany, and along the Black Sea. These rains have revived hopes for the 2025 crops, though areas of co...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net short position across all ags by 73 percent last week and now hold an essentially neutral position of 20,000 contracts short. Most of that buy...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 501,200 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 12 per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 –23 May 2025 Grain markets finally realized that the new crop is near and bearish adjustments between the old crop and new crop started to become a reality like never before. Only Siberia is still waiting while the rest of the country is watching the export new c...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 438,400 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 –16 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The grain market was relatively stable, however, the gap between the new crop and old crop price indicators is getting wider and wider. The export market is just finishing up the marathon run where everybody knows the winner, the qu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is expected to have a record maize crop in 2025 due to increases in planting maize versus wheat or rice. Total maize planting area is up by close to 7 percent which could see the maize crop reach a record of 5.1 MMT &nd...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather for the UK and northern Europe remains a major concern for crops. The UK is currently experiencing its driest year of the 21st century while western and northern Europe are slated for more dry conditions over the next two weeks. The EU model now favors more rain...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming split on their views for the grains and oilseeds complexes going forward. Funds were bearish grains as they sold a combined 120,000 contracts in corn and all three classes of wheat futures while buying 23,000 contracts ac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $4.5 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 2-8, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 58,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 371,400 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s price action. The weather outlooks – favorable for the Corn Belt and dry for the Southern Plains, Europe, and Black Sea – creat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to reach 83.8 MMT. They attribute the upgrade to rains in the wheat belt of Russia during the first 10 days of May. As a result, they also revis...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7125/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.1/short ton, up $4 fro...
Market Commentary: Market Movers Galore Move Markets
A tariff truce, export inspections, WASDE and crop progress. Monday was action packed and the much-anticipated USDA May WASDE report did not disappoint. In general, it was mixed for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat. In fact, all three major wheat contracts registered new contra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, not only because the focus remains on soybeans — with more than 21 percent harvested in just one week — but also due to rains recorded in several areas. To date, 34 percent of the estimated corn area has b...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France and Romania are lobbying for stricter alignment of Ukrainian grain terms with EU standards. The move comes as concerns about logistical bottlenecks, customs issues, and environmental regulations mount. The EU-Ukraine trade corridor continues to evolve and there is gro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report highlighted funds’ increasingly bearish view on ag commodities with managed money traders emerging as net sellers across the major grain and oilseeds futures. Funds’ net position across the soy complex, corn, wheat, and livestock futures fell 30 percent la...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and soymeal. All major ags opened higher but soymeal quickly reversed, and all three wheats headed south about an hour into the session. Monday&...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes
Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was rejected by day traders. Neither solid corn export sales, weather concerns in European and Chinese wheat, nor the prospect of trade agreement reli...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 25-May 1, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 493,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 10 perce...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, down $0.3...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and South America, and as-expected export volumes minimizing the need for a major move. Soyoil has pulled back sharply amid weakness in crude oil an...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The first step in what is likely to be a prolonged process was welcomed by the industry as it at least shows a willingness from both parties to t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3925/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295/short ton, up $2 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s largest megafarms which included 75 companies – half the number registered a year ago. This is telling us that large farms are becom...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy complex as funds turn increasingly bearish amid a favorable supply outlook for 2025. The grains sector saw a bit more support with wheat risi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran’s 2025 wheat production is being hurt by very dry weather. Rainfall up to February 2025 was much below average but did improve in March. However, Iran does have reasonable wheat stocks due to the good 2024 crop and whea...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommercial short positions weighing on market sentiment. Cattle futures managed to rise to new all-time highs after last week’s record-breakin...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.5/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with priority given to soybeans while farmers wait for grain moisture levels to drop in the central and southern parts o...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather forecast for Europe and the Black Sea remain highly varied, though mostly optimistic for grain and oilseed production. Conditions have been favorable for planting across the UK and EU to date, though Ukraine and Russia have seen unseasonably cold conditions that...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The only exceptions to the bearish trend was the continued buying in the livestock complex and, in a bit of a switch from recent trends, across th...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day
It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session it had been joined by old crop corn. New crop corn joined all three wheats and soybeans with a higher close. Hogs opened lower but then reve...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.58/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.9/short ton, up $2.6 from ye...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 18-24, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 72,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 491,700 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from t...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own
It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May WASDE is likely to boost estimates for corn and soybean exports, but that is still nearly two weeks away. Instead, today’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5025/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $3.7...
Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve
The Market Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were essentially unchanged. The board crush margin (that is, the margin implied by CBOT soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures) is up 6.5 percent f...
Market Commentary: Q1 GDP Slowdown Hits Equities, Cattle Markets; Grains Gain while Soybeans Slumber
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with grain and oilseed markets lacking much fresh fundamental news, other than weather updates and the first deliveries against May futures. The delivery data showed surprisingly heavy deliveries against soymeal, soyoil, and KCBT wheat and unexpectedly light deli...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.445/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The spring planting campaign in Russia is in full swing. Fifty-six regions of Russia are reportedly planting spring crops, and this season is showing much better speed than last year. To date, around 10.5 million hectares (Mha) a...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Record Rally; Wheat Finds New Lows; Corn, Soyoil Collapse
The CBOT tried to rally overnight and posted some slight gains heading into the morning break, but thereafter the market quickly found selling pressure. Monday’s favorable Crop Progress and conditions report from USDA offered much of the justification for the selling pressure and helped s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5275/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $2.3...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman will be hosting the USSEC 9th Regional Aquaculture Production Conference 2-5 May. Sustainable aquaculture production will be a major topic at the conference. Morocco’s Agriculture Ministry says that favorable rains in M...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much of the pressure. Wheat was the big loser for the day with favorable weather in the major growing regions prompting a strong wave of selling f...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, down $2.6...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn A week of favorable weather has given a strong boost to the summer crop harvest. As anticipated, farmers have already switched from corn to soybeans and are running their machines at full speed on soybeans, leaving corn aside. In fact, weekly corn harvest progress dropped...
European Market Analysis
Regional News EU grain markets continue to see pressure as the euro’s meteoric rise to a 3½-year high against the U.S. dollar undermines grain export competitiveness. The currency’s rally has sparked significant technical selling in Matif futures with Paris wheat fallin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...
Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week
With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some input, and especially focus on the May 12 WASDE. It will be the first keen look at the balance sheets for MY 2025/26. It was the fifth...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5925/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseeds. Both opened lower this morning but climbed out of the hole to end higher. Wheat closed lower overnight and opened that way this mornin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 145,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 479,600 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong
The Market The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in global trade war(s) offering support. CBOT soybean futures have pushed slightly higher with support from firmer soyoil values, and this has hel...
Market Commentary: Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Hits New Lows; More Trump Uncertainty
The CBOT was mixed again on Wednesday with grains seeing pressure from fund selling and a lack of significant news while soybeans and livestock traded higher. There are no serious weather issues in the U.S., South America, or Europe right now, which is taking ammunition away from grain bulls. T...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4025/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.6/short ton, down $0...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition. According to Mr. Mishustin, winter crops cover around 20 million ha (Mha). He is expecting that...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop analysts’ upward revisions to the Brazilian and Argentine corn crops, which combined with a strong start to planting the U.S. 2025 crop...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.35/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.8 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq has confirmed that it will not need to import as much wheat in 2024/25 as it expects to see purchases of local wheat at 4.5 MMT while current stocks of wheat are at 2.8 MMT. Overall wheat production could reach 6.0 MMT. Press...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading under the new exchange rate regulations, so it took the markets a few days to adjust. Regarding the official exchange rate, it opened on Monday...
2025/2026 Trade Update
Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely near multi-year lows. This is not yet a huge problem since the typical buying periods for the season’s supplies are mostly still in th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers will plant around 84 million ha (Mha) which is up almost 1 Mha from last season. 20 Mha have already been planted with winter crops. Accordi...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling price set monthly by the government for sales by local flour mills. According to officials, this will not affect the local price of bread whic...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows the first signs of appreciation. This is happening amid solid demand from exporters and melting stocks. As of 1 March, Russian wheat stocks s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s grain production was down by 17 percent in 2024 and due to dry weather and security production does not look any better for 2025, all according to the latest FAO report on Syria. In 2024, wheat production was at 1.9...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage point gained due to early-week rainfall. As a result, the total harvested area has reached 20 percent. With improved weather in recent days...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Both the GBP and EUR are seen as safe-haven trades right now, which has led to appreciation in both currencies. That is making exports less attractive from the UK and Europe, which is not what the markets need as they are already facing strong competition from Russia and Ukr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renewed hopes for biodiesel demand. Earlier this week, news broke that members of the oil and renewable energy sectors met with the EPA to discus...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupied territories of Ukraine. The total crop size showed 129.8 MMT - this is the number the Russian Statistics Agency recently reported. For re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region There is very little information on the Middle East and North Africa due to the end of Ramadan and the start of the EID holidays. Tomorrow, 2 April, is “import tariff day”. Import tariffs by the U.S. and reciprocal tar...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.37/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.505/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Grains Retreat ahead of WASDE; Cattle and Beef Prices Running Red-Hot
Corn, wheat, and soybeans all traded higher overnight on growing optimism over the U.S.-China trade negotiations, though markets could not hold those gains. The talks in London made solid progress and negotiations are reportedly on track with the Geneva agreement that is allowing broader trade...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2 – 6 June 2025 The grain market continued the transition from old crop to new crop meaning that the bearish trend is now across the board for all grains. The biggest bear was registered in the wheat belt which is located close to the export terminals as export dema...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Corn; Wheat Selling Continues; Cattle Wobble on ICE Rumors
The overnight CBOT trade showed corn pushing lower while the soy complex traded modestly higher on hopes for positive outcomes from the U.S.-China trade meeting this week. That trend quickly reversed, however, as corn became the upside leader in the day session on technical buying. Corn’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, up $0.4 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Grain markets in the MENA region are quiet due to the Musim Eid holidays that extends through 9 June. The FAO forecast Egypt to have above average grain crops in 2025, much of which is due to improved availability of high yi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather Forecasts while Livestock Futures Hit New Highs
Except for the livestock futures, which all hit new contract or record highs, the CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with favorable weather and bearish chart conditions driving the sentiment. The index fund roll ticked off its second of five days on Monday, so spreads and volumes patterns...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 9 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.5/short ton, down $0.2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3.3 percentage points over the past week and reached 43.8 percent of the estimated area nationwide. Progress remains slow due to high grain moisture and inaccessible soils in some regions. Still, harvest pace is 8 points ahead of last year &mda...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s recent strikes against Ukraine and poor progress in peace talks between the two countries in Istanbul have added “war risk” premia back into several markets, including wheat. Farmers in Spain and France were protesting, again, agricultural im...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bearish the major ag markets, last week with steady net selling across the grains and oilseed complex. Funds expanded their net short position across all ags by roughly 4.7 times last week and now hold a meaningful pos...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.7/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Export Sale
Export Sales and Shipments for May 23-29, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 49,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025. Export shipments of 540,100 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Indonesia (81,100 M...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $0 from...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $2.6 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 – 30 May 2025 The grain market was more similar to an end of June market rather than end of May. A new season seems to have started a month earlier. Wheat and barley prices in the south near the ports plummeted to new level. Usually transition from old crop to ne...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan has said that it could buy additional U.S. soybeans in order to eliminate the small trade surplus that the country has with the U.S. in order to avoid any tariffs now being set by the U.S. government. Pakistan’s Nat...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.9/short ton, down $2.4...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with only 40 percent of the total area harvested so far. The delay is no longer primarily due to the soybean harvest but is now driven by persistent high grain moisture and excess water in many fields. The m...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The UK, most of northern/central Europe, parts of eastern Europe and the eastern Black Sea all received beneficial rainfall last week, with volumes concentrated in the UK, Germany, and along the Black Sea. These rains have revived hopes for the 2025 crops, though areas of co...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net short position across all ags by 73 percent last week and now hold an essentially neutral position of 20,000 contracts short. Most of that buy...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 501,200 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 12 per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19 –23 May 2025 Grain markets finally realized that the new crop is near and bearish adjustments between the old crop and new crop started to become a reality like never before. Only Siberia is still waiting while the rest of the country is watching the export new c...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 438,400 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12 –16 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The grain market was relatively stable, however, the gap between the new crop and old crop price indicators is getting wider and wider. The export market is just finishing up the marathon run where everybody knows the winner, the qu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is expected to have a record maize crop in 2025 due to increases in planting maize versus wheat or rice. Total maize planting area is up by close to 7 percent which could see the maize crop reach a record of 5.1 MMT &nd...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather for the UK and northern Europe remains a major concern for crops. The UK is currently experiencing its driest year of the 21st century while western and northern Europe are slated for more dry conditions over the next two weeks. The EU model now favors more rain...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming split on their views for the grains and oilseeds complexes going forward. Funds were bearish grains as they sold a combined 120,000 contracts in corn and all three classes of wheat futures while buying 23,000 contracts ac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $4.5 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 2-8, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 58,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 371,400 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s price action. The weather outlooks – favorable for the Corn Belt and dry for the Southern Plains, Europe, and Black Sea – creat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to reach 83.8 MMT. They attribute the upgrade to rains in the wheat belt of Russia during the first 10 days of May. As a result, they also revis...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7125/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.1/short ton, up $4 fro...
Market Commentary: Market Movers Galore Move Markets
A tariff truce, export inspections, WASDE and crop progress. Monday was action packed and the much-anticipated USDA May WASDE report did not disappoint. In general, it was mixed for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat. In fact, all three major wheat contracts registered new contra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, not only because the focus remains on soybeans — with more than 21 percent harvested in just one week — but also due to rains recorded in several areas. To date, 34 percent of the estimated corn area has b...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France and Romania are lobbying for stricter alignment of Ukrainian grain terms with EU standards. The move comes as concerns about logistical bottlenecks, customs issues, and environmental regulations mount. The EU-Ukraine trade corridor continues to evolve and there is gro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report highlighted funds’ increasingly bearish view on ag commodities with managed money traders emerging as net sellers across the major grain and oilseeds futures. Funds’ net position across the soy complex, corn, wheat, and livestock futures fell 30 percent la...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and soymeal. All major ags opened higher but soymeal quickly reversed, and all three wheats headed south about an hour into the session. Monday&...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes
Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was rejected by day traders. Neither solid corn export sales, weather concerns in European and Chinese wheat, nor the prospect of trade agreement reli...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 25-May 1, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 493,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 10 perce...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, down $0.3...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and South America, and as-expected export volumes minimizing the need for a major move. Soyoil has pulled back sharply amid weakness in crude oil an...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The first step in what is likely to be a prolonged process was welcomed by the industry as it at least shows a willingness from both parties to t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3925/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295/short ton, up $2 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s largest megafarms which included 75 companies – half the number registered a year ago. This is telling us that large farms are becom...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy complex as funds turn increasingly bearish amid a favorable supply outlook for 2025. The grains sector saw a bit more support with wheat risi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran’s 2025 wheat production is being hurt by very dry weather. Rainfall up to February 2025 was much below average but did improve in March. However, Iran does have reasonable wheat stocks due to the good 2024 crop and whea...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommercial short positions weighing on market sentiment. Cattle futures managed to rise to new all-time highs after last week’s record-breakin...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.5/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn It was another very short trading week in Argentina, with Thursday and Friday being national holidays. Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, with priority given to soybeans while farmers wait for grain moisture levels to drop in the central and southern parts o...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather forecast for Europe and the Black Sea remain highly varied, though mostly optimistic for grain and oilseed production. Conditions have been favorable for planting across the UK and EU to date, though Ukraine and Russia have seen unseasonably cold conditions that...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The only exceptions to the bearish trend was the continued buying in the livestock complex and, in a bit of a switch from recent trends, across th...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day
It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session it had been joined by old crop corn. New crop corn joined all three wheats and soybeans with a higher close. Hogs opened lower but then reve...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.58/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.9/short ton, up $2.6 from ye...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 18-24, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 72,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 491,700 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from t...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own
It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May WASDE is likely to boost estimates for corn and soybean exports, but that is still nearly two weeks away. Instead, today’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5025/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $3.7...
Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve
The Market Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were essentially unchanged. The board crush margin (that is, the margin implied by CBOT soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures) is up 6.5 percent f...
Market Commentary: Q1 GDP Slowdown Hits Equities, Cattle Markets; Grains Gain while Soybeans Slumber
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with grain and oilseed markets lacking much fresh fundamental news, other than weather updates and the first deliveries against May futures. The delivery data showed surprisingly heavy deliveries against soymeal, soyoil, and KCBT wheat and unexpectedly light deli...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.445/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 The spring planting campaign in Russia is in full swing. Fifty-six regions of Russia are reportedly planting spring crops, and this season is showing much better speed than last year. To date, around 10.5 million hectares (Mha) a...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Record Rally; Wheat Finds New Lows; Corn, Soyoil Collapse
The CBOT tried to rally overnight and posted some slight gains heading into the morning break, but thereafter the market quickly found selling pressure. Monday’s favorable Crop Progress and conditions report from USDA offered much of the justification for the selling pressure and helped s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5275/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $2.3...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Oman will be hosting the USSEC 9th Regional Aquaculture Production Conference 2-5 May. Sustainable aquaculture production will be a major topic at the conference. Morocco’s Agriculture Ministry says that favorable rains in M...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much of the pressure. Wheat was the big loser for the day with favorable weather in the major growing regions prompting a strong wave of selling f...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, down $2.6...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn A week of favorable weather has given a strong boost to the summer crop harvest. As anticipated, farmers have already switched from corn to soybeans and are running their machines at full speed on soybeans, leaving corn aside. In fact, weekly corn harvest progress dropped...
European Market Analysis
Regional News EU grain markets continue to see pressure as the euro’s meteoric rise to a 3½-year high against the U.S. dollar undermines grain export competitiveness. The currency’s rally has sparked significant technical selling in Matif futures with Paris wheat fallin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...
Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week
With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some input, and especially focus on the May 12 WASDE. It will be the first keen look at the balance sheets for MY 2025/26. It was the fifth...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5925/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseeds. Both opened lower this morning but climbed out of the hole to end higher. Wheat closed lower overnight and opened that way this mornin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 145,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 479,600 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong
The Market The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in global trade war(s) offering support. CBOT soybean futures have pushed slightly higher with support from firmer soyoil values, and this has hel...
Market Commentary: Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Hits New Lows; More Trump Uncertainty
The CBOT was mixed again on Wednesday with grains seeing pressure from fund selling and a lack of significant news while soybeans and livestock traded higher. There are no serious weather issues in the U.S., South America, or Europe right now, which is taking ammunition away from grain bulls. T...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4025/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.6/short ton, down $0...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition. According to Mr. Mishustin, winter crops cover around 20 million ha (Mha). He is expecting that...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop analysts’ upward revisions to the Brazilian and Argentine corn crops, which combined with a strong start to planting the U.S. 2025 crop...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.35/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.8 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq has confirmed that it will not need to import as much wheat in 2024/25 as it expects to see purchases of local wheat at 4.5 MMT while current stocks of wheat are at 2.8 MMT. Overall wheat production could reach 6.0 MMT. Press...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Macroeconomic Updates Argentina saw a shortened trading week, with no markets last Thursday and Friday. It was also the first week of trading under the new exchange rate regulations, so it took the markets a few days to adjust. Regarding the official exchange rate, it opened on Monday...
2025/2026 Trade Update
Almost none of the primary U.S. grain or oilseed offerings have made a solid start to 2025-26, as export sales for the upcoming marketing year are largely near multi-year lows. This is not yet a huge problem since the typical buying periods for the season’s supplies are mostly still in th...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was consistent with expectations in that it showed managed money traders becoming dedicated net buyers across nearly every major ag market, with the notable exception of cattle futures. The buying was most notable in soybeans where, despite the trade war, funds flippe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers will plant around 84 million ha (Mha) which is up almost 1 Mha from last season. 20 Mha have already been planted with winter crops. Accordi...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling price set monthly by the government for sales by local flour mills. According to officials, this will not affect the local price of bread whic...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Oilseed Highlights: WASDE Raises Crush, Export Sales Remain Strong
The Market Oilseed markets have been volatile again this week amid the tariff-induced meltdown in macroeconomic and ag markets and Wednesday’s massive reversal and rally in the same markets. The net result of this is that soy complex futures are largely little changed – especi...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows the first signs of appreciation. This is happening amid solid demand from exporters and melting stocks. As of 1 March, Russian wheat stocks s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s grain production was down by 17 percent in 2024 and due to dry weather and security production does not look any better for 2025, all according to the latest FAO report on Syria. In 2024, wheat production was at 1.9...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Update Argentina Faces Harvest Delays and Changing Trade Dynamics Corn harvest progress in Argentina was slow last week, with only 1 percentage point gained due to early-week rainfall. As a result, the total harvested area has reached 20 percent. With improved weather in recent days...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Both the GBP and EUR are seen as safe-haven trades right now, which has led to appreciation in both currencies. That is making exports less attractive from the UK and Europe, which is not what the markets need as they are already facing strong competition from Russia and Ukr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Oilseed Highlights: “Liberation Day” Rattles Markets
The Market Prior to the Liberation Day tariffs that President Trump announced late Wednesday, oilseed markets were seeing noted strength due to renewed hopes for biodiesel demand. Earlier this week, news broke that members of the oil and renewable energy sectors met with the EPA to discus...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupied territories of Ukraine. The total crop size showed 129.8 MMT - this is the number the Russian Statistics Agency recently reported. For re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region There is very little information on the Middle East and North Africa due to the end of Ramadan and the start of the EID holidays. Tomorrow, 2 April, is “import tariff day”. Import tariffs by the U.S. and reciprocal tar...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...