Recent Livestock Analysis
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$111/head from -$206/head the prior week. The recovery was driven by another firming in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $379.00/cwt, while fed cattle prices softened modestly on the week. Even with the improvemen...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.33 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0075/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, up $7.9 from ye...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Livestock Round Up: Preview of Feedlot Placements and Changing Canada Dynamics
Feeder cattle sales were up over a year ago in February, but much of that was due to February 2025 sales being light. Still, the increase in activity bears watching, both for what it implies about feedlot placements and for herd rebuilding. In the four weeks ending February 27, total feed...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.705/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.7/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply last week but remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$206/head from the prior week’s extreme levels. The recovery was driven by a stronger boxed beef cutout, which rose to $371.62/cwt, while fed cattle prices moved lower on t...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.9/short ton, down...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.5/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Market Commentary: Late Corn Rally; Soyoil Aborts Complex; Wheat Splits
A mostly bullish overnight session was not sustained, splitting the soy complex and wheat. Corn rallied late to avert a loss. The morning opened with USDA’s Export Sales report reflecting the turn by buyers to lower-cost sources. There was good volume trading corn and the soy complex, and...
Livestock Round Up: Wholesale Protein CPI
During the State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Trump made several claims about food prices, citing reductions in costs to consumers. Food inflation is a major issue for voters, and the President is hyper-focused on beef prices in particular prior to the 2026 mid-term elections. The fin...
Market Commentary: Stable Policy, Conditional Demand, Weather Emerging as the Next Risk
Key Market Developments While tariffs were not addressed directly in the State of the Union, trade policy remains steady. Reports during today’s session confirmed that U.S. tariffs on China will remain in the 35 percent–50 percent range, signaling limited escalation ahead of upcomin...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.65/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $321.8/short ton, up $7.4 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on PNW Export Rumors; Grains Ease on Profit Taking
The soy complex was the upside leader again on rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans from the PNW, as well as some harvest and quality issues in Brazil. Soyoil continued to find support from hopes that the EPA will release its biofuel policy obligations in the coming few days, though no...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.4/short ton, up $1.9 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply last week, with estimated net margins falling to -$330.80/hd, down $60.58/hd week over week. The Choice cutout held nearly flat at $365.62/cwt, but fed cattle prices continued to climb, with live steers at $246.91/cwt and dressed prices surging to $387.9...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Ruling, South America Weather Send CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Monday, with the back-and-forth action of the Supreme Court and President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign imports driving volatility. For the ag markets, the biggest impact of the SCOTUS ruling seems to be doubts that China will adhere to its soybean purchase plan, a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.5/short ton, down $1.3 fro...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the fifth straight week. Funds added 95,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position, with buying in the soy complex driving about two-thirds of the increase. The soy complex saw...
Cattle on Feed - Feb 1, 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots totaled 11.5 million head on February 1, 2026 - 2 percent below Feb 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below 2025. Marketings during January totaled 1.63 million head, 13 percent below 2025. ...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $5 from...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Market Commentary: Mostly Bullish Except Corn Where Production Will Fall
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for February will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.4 percent of a year ago. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.53 million head. The total inventory on feed...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef complex margins weakened further in the week ending 14 February 2026, with estimated beef packer net margins sliding to -$270.22/hd (down $22.78/hd week over week) as higher cattle costs continued to outrun product values. The Choice cutout edged up to $365.30/cwt, but fed cattle prices mo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.41/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Navigate Energy Risk and Dollar Strength
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.335/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.9/short ton, down $1.9 fro...
Market Commentary: Weather Pressures Grains; Crush Pace Boosts Soybeans
The CBOT managed to recover from a dramatic overnight plunge with soybeans leading the fight to put values back in the green. Most of the news coming out of the weekend was bearish – between larger Russian wheat crop projections, the advancing South American harvests, and generally favora...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $3.4 fr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend
There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...
Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT
Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Margins and Distribution
The recent February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast beef production to increase in 2026 due to greater slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter, and heavier dressed weights, all of which will provide some relief to the beef market. Also, th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.9/short ton, up $4.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Steady with an Outside Surprise
The U.S. created more new jobs in January than expected, especially in healthcare. And there was more ethanol produced last week than the market expected. Soyoil hit a new contract high, but South American production continues to look quite substantial. The mixed news produced mixed results, bu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins weakened further last week, with estimated net losses widening to -$247/head, extending the deterioration seen through late January. Boxed beef values were firmer last week, but gains failed to offset increases in fed cattle prices, resulting in additional margin compression...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3725/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
Market Commentary: WASDE Confirms Big Supply, Big Demand; Soybeans Gain on Brazil Quality
The headline numbers from the February WASDE – the South American production estimates – were mostly in line with expectations, which is to say the massive Brazilian soybean crop was found to be even more so. USDA increased its assessment of the Brazilian crop to a new record, which...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower on Weather, Pre-WASDE Consolidation
Except for the red-hot soyoil market, the CBOT was mostly lower on Monday, with favorable South American weather and pre-WASDE position adjustment driving the day’s mentality. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled slightly lower Monday in either consolidative trade or a continuation of ch...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, down $5...
Argentina Beef Imports Outlook for 2026
At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., urged producers to expand the beef herd in a “fireside chat” with National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Buck Wehrbein. Kennedy, however, acknowledged that he...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
WPI recently expanded our analysis of the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data to include reports on the regime (trending, cyclical, or transition) of each commodity we include. This addition will make it easier for clients to draw actionable inferences from the data that can support trading...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week
It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales. The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1525/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.4...
Market Commentary: Soybean Spillover Rides Another Day
There was high-volume trading in soybeans again today after hitting record levels yesterday. The enthusiasm carried over to corn and soymeal as well, and there was good volume trading in soyoil contracts. There is understandable skepticism that China would pay 80 cents/bushel more for U.S. soyb...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1225/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.2/short ton, up $7 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Dairy Herd
The U.S. dairy herd in 2025 expanded at the fastest pace since the 1950s and reached a level that has not occurred since the early 1990s. Based on the USDA monthly milk production report for December, the milk cow herd totaled 9.567 million head, up from the prior month and 212,000 head from a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins weakened further, with estimated net losses widening to -$233/head. While boxed beef values continued to firm, gains were outpaced by higher fed cattle prices, pressuring gross margins despite stable carcass weights and drop values. Packer profitability remains well below se...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge as Trumps Says China in for Another 8 MMT
There are days in the commodity markets when it feels like nothing is happening in any market, and then there are days when it feels like everything is happening in every market. Today was one of the latter days. The big headline in ag trade Wednesday was the soybean futures and broader s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9225/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Stocks, Tax Credits; Livestock Futures Gain on Cash Trade
Soyoil was the upside leader in the CBOT’s Tuesday trade after the USDA’s December soyoil stocks figure came in well below expectations. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its proposal on the 45Z Clean Fuel tax credits, which were broadly friendly for ag interests...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $2.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Strong Dollar; Cattle Surge on Inventory Numbers
The CBOT turned lower to start the week with some of the profit-taking that defined Friday’s end-of-month trade continuing into the first day of February. Also pressuring grain futures was an improved forecast for Argentina, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and sharply lower energy markets. Th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0...
Meat Producer Price Index
Wholesale meat prices fell across the board in December, seasonally adjusted, according to Producer Price Index (PPI) data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The overall PPI for final demand, which measures the end stage of production, rose 0.5 percent last month, driven by high...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds building their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds added 108,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position last week, with buying in soyoil and CBOT wheat driving most of that increase. The...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report was issued today. The inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was 86,155,300 head, slightly below—or about 316,900 head fewer than—the 86,472,200 head on 1 January 2025. This year showed the seventh consecutive ann...
Cracking the Egg Price Mystery
Egg prices have been through a volatile 18 months, rallying sharply in LH 2024 and into early 2025 as bird flu decimated the U.S. layer flock. In early 2025, the U.S. layer flock for table eggs specifically fell to at least a 10-year low, at 286.4 million birds, down about 16 percent from the 2...
Market Commentary: Weather Impacts as Commodities Move Their Own Way
Markets traded higher overnight and opened that way this morning, but the soy complex quickly gave way. Weather threatens shipments down the Mississippi, yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, Ukraine, and other places as well. But it is still a buyers’ market. A decent USDA Expor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7225/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $1.8 f...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report will be issued on Friday. The outlook calls for the cattle herd to be 86.4 million head, down from 86.7 million head last January, making it the seventh consecutive decline since 2019 and putting the cattle herd down 2 percent from the previous low point i...
Market Commentary: Weak Dollar Triggers Grains Rally; Wheat Breaks Major Resistance Levels
Grains rallied across the board overnight and through Wednesday’s day session as a plunging U.S. dollar made U.S. exports more competitive. The move is especially valuable as the Brazilian soybean harvest accelerates and could keep U.S. shipments flowing. The cheaper greenback is also cri...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, up $3.8 from yest...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses at -$185/head, little changed from the prior week. Rising boxed beef values continued to lag gains in fed cattle prices, keeping gross margins compressed despite incremental support from carcass weights and drop values. Rel...
Market Commentary: Energy Supports Soyoil, Soybeans; Weak Dollar Pushes Wheat Higher
Grain trade at the CBOT was mixed Tuesday with higher energy values supporting soyoil and soybeans while a weaker dollar and some commercial buying supported wheat futures. Corn was the laggard for the day as concerns about ethanol production in the U.S. during the two weeks of severe cold weig...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294/short ton, down $0.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6175/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Grains Give Back Gains on Technical Weakness; Hogs Hit New Highs
Trade in ag commodity futures saw two diverging trends to start the week. Weakness quickly developed in grains and oilseeds amid profit taking, weak technicals, and Export Inspections data that were about as exciting as the last half of the Broncos–Patriots game. Conversely, cattle future...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Funds cut 3,800 contracts from their net all-ags short position last week, with buying in soyoil and livestock futures driving most of that incr...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.7 from y...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$111/head from -$206/head the prior week. The recovery was driven by another firming in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $379.00/cwt, while fed cattle prices softened modestly on the week. Even with the improvemen...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.33 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0075/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, up $7.9 from ye...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Livestock Round Up: Preview of Feedlot Placements and Changing Canada Dynamics
Feeder cattle sales were up over a year ago in February, but much of that was due to February 2025 sales being light. Still, the increase in activity bears watching, both for what it implies about feedlot placements and for herd rebuilding. In the four weeks ending February 27, total feed...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.705/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.7/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply last week but remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$206/head from the prior week’s extreme levels. The recovery was driven by a stronger boxed beef cutout, which rose to $371.62/cwt, while fed cattle prices moved lower on t...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.9/short ton, down...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.5/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Market Commentary: Late Corn Rally; Soyoil Aborts Complex; Wheat Splits
A mostly bullish overnight session was not sustained, splitting the soy complex and wheat. Corn rallied late to avert a loss. The morning opened with USDA’s Export Sales report reflecting the turn by buyers to lower-cost sources. There was good volume trading corn and the soy complex, and...
Livestock Round Up: Wholesale Protein CPI
During the State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Trump made several claims about food prices, citing reductions in costs to consumers. Food inflation is a major issue for voters, and the President is hyper-focused on beef prices in particular prior to the 2026 mid-term elections. The fin...
Market Commentary: Stable Policy, Conditional Demand, Weather Emerging as the Next Risk
Key Market Developments While tariffs were not addressed directly in the State of the Union, trade policy remains steady. Reports during today’s session confirmed that U.S. tariffs on China will remain in the 35 percent–50 percent range, signaling limited escalation ahead of upcomin...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.65/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $321.8/short ton, up $7.4 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on PNW Export Rumors; Grains Ease on Profit Taking
The soy complex was the upside leader again on rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans from the PNW, as well as some harvest and quality issues in Brazil. Soyoil continued to find support from hopes that the EPA will release its biofuel policy obligations in the coming few days, though no...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.4/short ton, up $1.9 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply last week, with estimated net margins falling to -$330.80/hd, down $60.58/hd week over week. The Choice cutout held nearly flat at $365.62/cwt, but fed cattle prices continued to climb, with live steers at $246.91/cwt and dressed prices surging to $387.9...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Ruling, South America Weather Send CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Monday, with the back-and-forth action of the Supreme Court and President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign imports driving volatility. For the ag markets, the biggest impact of the SCOTUS ruling seems to be doubts that China will adhere to its soybean purchase plan, a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.5/short ton, down $1.3 fro...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the fifth straight week. Funds added 95,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position, with buying in the soy complex driving about two-thirds of the increase. The soy complex saw...
Cattle on Feed - Feb 1, 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots totaled 11.5 million head on February 1, 2026 - 2 percent below Feb 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below 2025. Marketings during January totaled 1.63 million head, 13 percent below 2025. ...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $5 from...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Market Commentary: Mostly Bullish Except Corn Where Production Will Fall
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for February will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.4 percent of a year ago. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.53 million head. The total inventory on feed...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef complex margins weakened further in the week ending 14 February 2026, with estimated beef packer net margins sliding to -$270.22/hd (down $22.78/hd week over week) as higher cattle costs continued to outrun product values. The Choice cutout edged up to $365.30/cwt, but fed cattle prices mo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.41/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Navigate Energy Risk and Dollar Strength
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.335/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.9/short ton, down $1.9 fro...
Market Commentary: Weather Pressures Grains; Crush Pace Boosts Soybeans
The CBOT managed to recover from a dramatic overnight plunge with soybeans leading the fight to put values back in the green. Most of the news coming out of the weekend was bearish – between larger Russian wheat crop projections, the advancing South American harvests, and generally favora...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $3.4 fr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend
There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...
Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT
Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Margins and Distribution
The recent February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast beef production to increase in 2026 due to greater slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter, and heavier dressed weights, all of which will provide some relief to the beef market. Also, th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.9/short ton, up $4.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Steady with an Outside Surprise
The U.S. created more new jobs in January than expected, especially in healthcare. And there was more ethanol produced last week than the market expected. Soyoil hit a new contract high, but South American production continues to look quite substantial. The mixed news produced mixed results, bu...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins weakened further last week, with estimated net losses widening to -$247/head, extending the deterioration seen through late January. Boxed beef values were firmer last week, but gains failed to offset increases in fed cattle prices, resulting in additional margin compression...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3725/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
Market Commentary: WASDE Confirms Big Supply, Big Demand; Soybeans Gain on Brazil Quality
The headline numbers from the February WASDE – the South American production estimates – were mostly in line with expectations, which is to say the massive Brazilian soybean crop was found to be even more so. USDA increased its assessment of the Brazilian crop to a new record, which...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower on Weather, Pre-WASDE Consolidation
Except for the red-hot soyoil market, the CBOT was mostly lower on Monday, with favorable South American weather and pre-WASDE position adjustment driving the day’s mentality. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled slightly lower Monday in either consolidative trade or a continuation of ch...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, down $5...
Argentina Beef Imports Outlook for 2026
At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., urged producers to expand the beef herd in a “fireside chat” with National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Buck Wehrbein. Kennedy, however, acknowledged that he...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
WPI recently expanded our analysis of the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data to include reports on the regime (trending, cyclical, or transition) of each commodity we include. This addition will make it easier for clients to draw actionable inferences from the data that can support trading...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week
It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales. The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1525/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.4...
Market Commentary: Soybean Spillover Rides Another Day
There was high-volume trading in soybeans again today after hitting record levels yesterday. The enthusiasm carried over to corn and soymeal as well, and there was good volume trading in soyoil contracts. There is understandable skepticism that China would pay 80 cents/bushel more for U.S. soyb...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1225/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.2/short ton, up $7 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Dairy Herd
The U.S. dairy herd in 2025 expanded at the fastest pace since the 1950s and reached a level that has not occurred since the early 1990s. Based on the USDA monthly milk production report for December, the milk cow herd totaled 9.567 million head, up from the prior month and 212,000 head from a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins weakened further, with estimated net losses widening to -$233/head. While boxed beef values continued to firm, gains were outpaced by higher fed cattle prices, pressuring gross margins despite stable carcass weights and drop values. Packer profitability remains well below se...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge as Trumps Says China in for Another 8 MMT
There are days in the commodity markets when it feels like nothing is happening in any market, and then there are days when it feels like everything is happening in every market. Today was one of the latter days. The big headline in ag trade Wednesday was the soybean futures and broader s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9225/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Stocks, Tax Credits; Livestock Futures Gain on Cash Trade
Soyoil was the upside leader in the CBOT’s Tuesday trade after the USDA’s December soyoil stocks figure came in well below expectations. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its proposal on the 45Z Clean Fuel tax credits, which were broadly friendly for ag interests...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $2.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Strong Dollar; Cattle Surge on Inventory Numbers
The CBOT turned lower to start the week with some of the profit-taking that defined Friday’s end-of-month trade continuing into the first day of February. Also pressuring grain futures was an improved forecast for Argentina, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and sharply lower energy markets. Th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0...
Meat Producer Price Index
Wholesale meat prices fell across the board in December, seasonally adjusted, according to Producer Price Index (PPI) data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The overall PPI for final demand, which measures the end stage of production, rose 0.5 percent last month, driven by high...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds building their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds added 108,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position last week, with buying in soyoil and CBOT wheat driving most of that increase. The...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report was issued today. The inventory of all cattle and calves in the U.S. as of 1 January was 86,155,300 head, slightly below—or about 316,900 head fewer than—the 86,472,200 head on 1 January 2025. This year showed the seventh consecutive ann...
Cracking the Egg Price Mystery
Egg prices have been through a volatile 18 months, rallying sharply in LH 2024 and into early 2025 as bird flu decimated the U.S. layer flock. In early 2025, the U.S. layer flock for table eggs specifically fell to at least a 10-year low, at 286.4 million birds, down about 16 percent from the 2...
Market Commentary: Weather Impacts as Commodities Move Their Own Way
Markets traded higher overnight and opened that way this morning, but the soy complex quickly gave way. Weather threatens shipments down the Mississippi, yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, Ukraine, and other places as well. But it is still a buyers’ market. A decent USDA Expor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7225/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $1.8 f...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Inventory Report Preview
USDA’s semi-annual cattle report will be issued on Friday. The outlook calls for the cattle herd to be 86.4 million head, down from 86.7 million head last January, making it the seventh consecutive decline since 2019 and putting the cattle herd down 2 percent from the previous low point i...
Market Commentary: Weak Dollar Triggers Grains Rally; Wheat Breaks Major Resistance Levels
Grains rallied across the board overnight and through Wednesday’s day session as a plunging U.S. dollar made U.S. exports more competitive. The move is especially valuable as the Brazilian soybean harvest accelerates and could keep U.S. shipments flowing. The cheaper greenback is also cri...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, up $3.8 from yest...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses at -$185/head, little changed from the prior week. Rising boxed beef values continued to lag gains in fed cattle prices, keeping gross margins compressed despite incremental support from carcass weights and drop values. Rel...
Market Commentary: Energy Supports Soyoil, Soybeans; Weak Dollar Pushes Wheat Higher
Grain trade at the CBOT was mixed Tuesday with higher energy values supporting soyoil and soybeans while a weaker dollar and some commercial buying supported wheat futures. Corn was the laggard for the day as concerns about ethanol production in the U.S. during the two weeks of severe cold weig...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294/short ton, down $0.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6175/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Grains Give Back Gains on Technical Weakness; Hogs Hit New Highs
Trade in ag commodity futures saw two diverging trends to start the week. Weakness quickly developed in grains and oilseeds amid profit taking, weak technicals, and Export Inspections data that were about as exciting as the last half of the Broncos–Patriots game. Conversely, cattle future...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Funds cut 3,800 contracts from their net all-ags short position last week, with buying in soyoil and livestock futures driving most of that incr...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements were higher than forecast, and marketings were near pre-report estimates. This was the quarterly report showing steers and heifers on feed...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.7 from y...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 96.8 percent of last year, with the range of estimates between 96 and 97.6 percent of 1 January 2024. Those estimates imply...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced $4.56/cwt and fed cattle prices were largely stable. The recovery narrowed the gap between breakeven and cash cattle values to roughly $19/...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion
With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the inventory numbers will be. Perhaps more so than any other year past, this year’s forecasting effort is complicated by several unusual f...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt while fed cattle prices were mostly steady. The improvement reflects a short-term stabilization in boxed beef values following the sharp post...
Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply
While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. As WPI has noted many times, about half of all beef consumption in the U.S. is in the form of ground beef, and that ground beef relies on imp...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...