FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 8 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-Bulk Freight Dry-bulk freight markets were weaker once again and continue the trend that has been present for the past 15 weeks. Rates for Panamax grain from the U.S. to Asia hit new yearly lows this past week and have fallen ab...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futures contracts) to new highs with the VVX margin hitting $1.62/bushel and the HHH margins topping the $1.45 mark for the first time in over a...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in the central-east and southern regions of Buenos Aires Province, with 30–50 mm recorded. However, the provinces of Córdoba, Santa...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle and Beef Imports
High cattle and beef prices are supporting imports. First, cattle imports through July are up 22.6 percent compared to last year. Imports from Canada are up 18.1 percent and imports from Mexico have increased 25.2 percent over the same period. This trend of increased imports certai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous week. Recent rains benefited many areas, but a significant portion of the wheat has not received rain for several weeks and is showing signs...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key reversal on the chart. If the soybean market was hoping for similar aid, it received none, and the WADSE was deeply bearish with a record-br...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However, some regions, including the northern core zone, western Buenos Aires, and the northern agricultural region, received little to no rain. In...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Cattle and Beef Markets and Brazil’s Cattle
This past week’s slaughter at 593,000 was down 7,000 head from the previous week and down 22,000 from last year. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in d...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6.3–6.4 Mha. In certain regions, some fields were not planted due to a lack of soil moisture, and with current prices, it is not worth t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with some localized rains allowing producers to advance planting. However, the lack of water and frost damage to tissues caused the crop condition t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are the lack of surface soil moisture in the central and northern agricultural areas, and excess moisture in the south. Fifteen percent of the es...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific compared to what was calculated in March this year. This indicates that the intensity...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Turnaround; Hog Selloff Continues; Cattle Shrug Off COF Report
Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-covering and buying pulled the latter two markets higher. Soybeans scored double-digit gains for the day while the corn market could only mana...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led to low activity for the week. Origination and FOB markets were quiet for both corn and wheat. Presently, with a weekly progress of almost 2...
Market Commentary: Grain Rally Fades; Soybeans Try for Recovery; Bearish COF Numbers
The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short profit taking that helped the soy complex, while corn and wheat continued to drift lower amid weak technicals and bearish fundamental sentime...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week on 28 June. Nothing is tanking as much as wheat, with Paris now entering oversold territory and July HRS hitting a new contract low...
Market Commentary: No Threats so Hedging Bearish
Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a big U.S. crop. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report was released after the market close, but the crop conditions were already viewed as...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario Grain Exchange is slightly more optimistic, estimating an area of 6.9 Mha, and a production of 21 MMT. The market, in general, is taking a m...
Market Commentary: Ignoring Weather, Modest Volume Sees Mostly Red
Grains and soybeans followed the overnight close by trading lower at the open. The early stretch just saw fractional declines but later in the morning, corn and soybeans took deeper dives. Volumes were modest to lower, except in cattle futures. Despite expectations that the current hotter, drie...
Market Commentary: Some Higher Closes on Sideways Trade
Corn, the soybean complex and SRW all closed higher on the day with Kansas City and Minneapolis fractionally lower. For the trading week thus far, July corn is up 9.75 cents (2.1 percent), July soybeans are 10.25 cents higher (0.8 percent), and July SRW is down 7.5 cents (-1.1 percent). ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course, Corn and Soy Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT’s trade was primarily focused on last-minute preparation and positioning for the WASDE, which USDA will release at Noon ET on Wednesday. That meant corn and soybeans saw more selling pressure as expectations call for larger U.S. crops and ending stocks for the coming year. Wheat,...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Accelerates; Corn, Soy Stabilized Before WASDE; Cattle and Hogs Diverge
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and the soy complex seeing some cautious support, mostly concentrated in old crop markets, while the massive selloff in wheat continued with funds eagerly selling into the weakness. One feature of the day’s trade was the Goldman roll, which h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn This week, the Argentine government confirmed that the sworn export sales declarations (DJVE) will not be extended, unlike the previous administration. Exporters must ship a minimum of 26 MMT by January 2025. Between June, July, and August alone, DJVEs account for 8.7 MMT, with an addition...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off a New Floor
Corn, soybeans, and wheat were both higher in the overnight session and added to that mood today except only HRW amongst the wheats held on to gains. For corn and soybeans, today broke a seven consecutive session losing streak, and HRW ended a six-session losing streak. Some in the trade...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Market Commentary: Shifting Weather Implies Sideways Wheat Trade, Lower Outlook for Corn, Soy
The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong planting progress last week. Wheat futures tried to rally in early trade, but the corn and soy complex weakness pulled that market lower with add...
No Mimosas
Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has caused production to fall by nearly a quarter. As a result, prices have spiked. It may not be a proxy for soybeans and corn since oranges are...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 November)
Ocean Freight Comments - 8 November 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-Bulk Freight Dry-bulk freight markets were weaker once again and continue the trend that has been present for the past 15 weeks. Rates for Panamax grain from the U.S. to Asia hit new yearly lows this past week and have fallen ab...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis: Soybeans
Last week, soybean trading saw a lot of activity, particularly with Brazilian old crop shipments and increased movement in U.S. new crop sales. CNF China trade levels began at 240X for the PNW and 255X for the U.S. Gulf, rising rapidly due to several factors. A drop in Chicago futures triggered...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The recent strength in U.S. soyoil and soymeal prices has helped push “board” crush margin (i.e., the margin implied or calculated by CBOT futures contracts) to new highs with the VVX margin hitting $1.62/bushel and the HHH margins topping the $1.45 mark for the first time in over a...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?
Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Economic/Policy Update Argentine President Javier Milei, in a public speech this week, presented the 2025 budget that will be sent to Congress for approval. Farmers had high expectations for potential announcements that might improve their business or provide visibility concerni...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Corn
WASDE CORN: USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels – a reduction of 16 million bushels. World corn ending stocks are projected to be 308.4 million tons, down 1.8 million. The anticipated impact...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Recent rains have benefited parts of Argentina, but not all areas received significant precipitation. The highest accumulations occurred in the central-east and southern regions of Buenos Aires Province, with 30–50 mm recorded. However, the provinces of Córdoba, Santa...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle and Beef Imports
High cattle and beef prices are supporting imports. First, cattle imports through July are up 22.6 percent compared to last year. Imports from Canada are up 18.1 percent and imports from Mexico have increased 25.2 percent over the same period. This trend of increased imports certai...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Broad-based September Rally
The CBOT was higher once again with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soymeal all scoring new rally highs and bullish technical victories. In wheat in particular, fund managers are working hard to cover shorts as the technical outlook rapidly shifts bullish, which has driven much of this week’s...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Find New Lows; Soy Complex Rallies with Soyoil in the Lead
The CBOT was mixed on Monday with corn scoring new contract lows after Friday’s crop tour’s record-breaking yield forecast while wheat was on the defensive amid the ongoing pricing malaise affecting nearly every major exporter. The Paris wheat market is particularly beleaguered righ...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat On 20 August, rainfall ranged from 2-10 millimeters across almost the entire province of Buenos Aires, the agricultural region of La Pampa, and Entre Ríos. The central and southeastern parts of Buenos Aires received similar amounts on 21 August. However, most of the core agri...
Market Commentary: Corn Dips on Crop Conditions; Cattle Plunge on Lower Beef Values
The big themes from Tuesday’s CBOT trade were that wheat continues to find slow, cautious support amid a weaker U.S. dollar and troubles in Argentina while steady corn and soybean ratings resulted in muted trade for the latter two commodities. Corn futures drifted lower as specs are neith...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off the Lows Again
In 2000, the American punk rock band Sugarcult released a song called “Bouncing Off The Walls” that featured the chorus line “I’m bouncing off the walls again (whoa)”, which is a pretty good description of Monday’s CBOT trade. Except, instead of walls, the ma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Currently, 85 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is in normal to good condition, reflecting a nearly 10 percent decline from the previous week. Recent rains benefited many areas, but a significant portion of the wheat has not received rain for several weeks and is showing signs...
Market Commentary: Corn Scores Bullish Reversal; WASDE Confirms Soy’s Bearish Outlook
The WASDE held more than a few surprises on Monday with USDA offering hope for the beleaguered corn market to the extent that futures posted a bullish key reversal on the chart. If the soybean market was hoping for similar aid, it received none, and the WADSE was deeply bearish with a record-br...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After several weeks of waiting, rain finally fell over much of Argentina’s wheat-planted area, bringing relief to many producers. However, some regions, including the northern core zone, western Buenos Aires, and the northern agricultural region, received little to no rain. In...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Make New Lows; Corn, Wheat Fall on WASDE Supply Expectations
The CBOT was once again mostly red for the day with traders preparing for the August WASDE and generally expecting large crops and ending stocks for the 2024/25 year. The Midwest weather remains nearly ideal for producing big crops, and the only real question is how harvested acreage will impac...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Cattle and Beef Markets and Brazil’s Cattle
This past week’s slaughter at 593,000 was down 7,000 head from the previous week and down 22,000 from last year. The fed cattle portion of the weekly slaughter continues to make a larger percentage of the total slaughter than prior years with cow slaughter of both dairy and beef cows in d...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Fall on Weather, Crop Ratings; Wheat Firms on EU Worries
If Monday’s trade as all about the macro market meltdown, then Tuesday’s trade was about returning to normal. Global equity, bond, and currency markets mostly reversed course on Tuesday and pared back some of the massive losses they incurred over the past three trading sessions. Tha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the wheat planting has ended with a total seeded area of 6.3 Mha, aligning it with other private estimates of 6.3–6.4 Mha. In certain regions, some fields were not planted due to a lack of soil moisture, and with current prices, it is not worth t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat planting reached 98.5 percent of the expected 6.3 Mha last week, with some localized rains allowing producers to advance planting. However, the lack of water and frost damage to tissues caused the crop condition t...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Half-Hearted Reversals; Hogs Extend Nascent Rally
Tuesday’s CBOT trade featured gains in corn and the soy complex with funds casually covering some of their massive short positions amid oversold technical conditions and following Monday’s damage-inducing storms across the Midwest. Conviction was lacking, however, and the day’...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Weather Argentina has faced extreme cold across the country for several days with temperatures well below 0 degrees Celsius for many hours. This extreme weather impacts various crops. For maize still standing in the field, the cold aids in drying and thus speeds up the harves...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows, Including a Soymeal Double
Contrasted with yesterday’s sour mood, most contracts found greenery in today’s trading. But that doesn’t mean the bearish overcast went away, it just took a small break here and there. Beyond the general tenor, there were some notable milestones: Corn and soybeans got a sma...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Stabilize while Soy Complex, Livestock Collapse Further
Trade at the CBOT was highly mixed across the different market categories Tuesday with grains (corn and wheat) seeing mild gains and signs of pre-WASDE stability emerge while oilseeds and livestock futures sold off sharply again. The vegoil rally that last week’s tensions between Indonesi...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Bears Grab Control
Bears were solidly in control of trade at the CBOT on Monday with mostly favorable U.S. weather forecasts and expectations of a bearish July WASDE report driving price action. Grain and oilseed markets were lower overnight with Matif wheat futures leading the CBOT and KCBT into the red in early...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat planting slowed last week, and farmers only seeded any additional 4 percent of the estimated area. The main reasons are the lack of surface soil moisture in the central and northern agricultural areas, and excess moisture in the south. Fifteen percent of the es...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Projections made by NOAA on 20 June for the rest of the year show, for the third consecutive month, a decrease in the predicted cooling of the sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific compared to what was calculated in March this year. This indicates that the intensity...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Post Turnaround; Hog Selloff Continues; Cattle Shrug Off COF Report
Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-covering and buying pulled the latter two markets higher. Soybeans scored double-digit gains for the day while the corn market could only mana...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led to low activity for the week. Origination and FOB markets were quiet for both corn and wheat. Presently, with a weekly progress of almost 2...
Market Commentary: Grain Rally Fades; Soybeans Try for Recovery; Bearish COF Numbers
The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short profit taking that helped the soy complex, while corn and wheat continued to drift lower amid weak technicals and bearish fundamental sentime...
Market Commentary: Still Looking for that Inevitable Bottom
Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week on 28 June. Nothing is tanking as much as wheat, with Paris now entering oversold territory and July HRS hitting a new contract low...
Market Commentary: No Threats so Hedging Bearish
Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a big U.S. crop. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report was released after the market close, but the crop conditions were already viewed as...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario Grain Exchange is slightly more optimistic, estimating an area of 6.9 Mha, and a production of 21 MMT. The market, in general, is taking a m...
Market Commentary: Ignoring Weather, Modest Volume Sees Mostly Red
Grains and soybeans followed the overnight close by trading lower at the open. The early stretch just saw fractional declines but later in the morning, corn and soybeans took deeper dives. Volumes were modest to lower, except in cattle futures. Despite expectations that the current hotter, drie...
Market Commentary: Some Higher Closes on Sideways Trade
Corn, the soybean complex and SRW all closed higher on the day with Kansas City and Minneapolis fractionally lower. For the trading week thus far, July corn is up 9.75 cents (2.1 percent), July soybeans are 10.25 cents higher (0.8 percent), and July SRW is down 7.5 cents (-1.1 percent). ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course, Corn and Soy Quiet Ahead of WASDE
The CBOT’s trade was primarily focused on last-minute preparation and positioning for the WASDE, which USDA will release at Noon ET on Wednesday. That meant corn and soybeans saw more selling pressure as expectations call for larger U.S. crops and ending stocks for the coming year. Wheat,...
Market Commentary: Wheat Selloff Accelerates; Corn, Soy Stabilized Before WASDE; Cattle and Hogs Diverge
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and the soy complex seeing some cautious support, mostly concentrated in old crop markets, while the massive selloff in wheat continued with funds eagerly selling into the weakness. One feature of the day’s trade was the Goldman roll, which h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn This week, the Argentine government confirmed that the sworn export sales declarations (DJVE) will not be extended, unlike the previous administration. Exporters must ship a minimum of 26 MMT by January 2025. Between June, July, and August alone, DJVEs account for 8.7 MMT, with an addition...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Market Commentary: Bouncing Off a New Floor
Corn, soybeans, and wheat were both higher in the overnight session and added to that mood today except only HRW amongst the wheats held on to gains. For corn and soybeans, today broke a seven consecutive session losing streak, and HRW ended a six-session losing streak. Some in the trade...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Data Pressures CBOT; Hogs Collapse on Demand Worries
The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. There are certainly some areas of concern and potential for some acres to be planted to soybeans at the last minute, but the overall outlook is...
Market Commentary: Shifting Weather Implies Sideways Wheat Trade, Lower Outlook for Corn, Soy
The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong planting progress last week. Wheat futures tried to rally in early trade, but the corn and soy complex weakness pulled that market lower with add...
No Mimosas
Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has caused production to fall by nearly a quarter. As a result, prices have spiked. It may not be a proxy for soybeans and corn since oranges are...