Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to follow international labor rights and uphold high environmental standards. The EU already does this and is therefore not a concession. It offe...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by Memorial Day. The President told House Republicans today that they should not cut Medicaid, and they should not raise the cap on deducting st...
I Don’t Care; Rebalancing U.S. – Japan Trade
I Don’t Care That is likely President Trump’s attitude toward the WTO General Council’s castigation of his tariff war. Understandably, WTO members believe the complete flaunting of its rules by the U.S. undermines the entire organization. Both China and the EU want the U.S. na...
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Debt
On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the U.S, credit worthiness and warned about rising levels of government debt and a widening budget deficit, cutting its U.S, credit rating by one notch to AA1. Moody’s was the last of the Big Three agencies to downgrade the U.S. from a triple-A rating.&...
U.S. Agriculture Crisis
U.S. farmers’ export markets were challenging before the trade war, and they are not coming back. It is time for Plan B. The trade agreement still being negotiated with the United Kingdom will supposedly allow U.S. beef producers to fill up to 1.5 percent of the British market. Except the...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Pesticide Assault; WTO Attacks U.S.; African Future
Pesticide Assault The Wall Street Journal reported that RFK, Jr.’s intent to ban all pesticides is running into opposition from other officials in the Trump Administration. His critics worry that removing pesticides will drive up food costs and know that inflation is a key consumer concer...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
U.S. and China Agree to Cut Tariffs for 90 Days and Continue Negotiating
After weeks of Chinese denials that they were engaged in talks with the U.S on tariffs, the governments of the United States and the People’s Republic of China issued a joint statement this morning saying that they would rescind reciprocal tariffs for the coming 90 days. It included: ...
Trade Deal with UK
Yesterday, President Trump announced from the Oval Office a trade deal “in principle” with the UK, the first of its kind following the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. While details are still lacking, according to the Administration, the agreement includes increased market acc...
It’s Complicated
This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his opponents, of which there is a lengthy list. But as the journalist Matthew Continetti says, “Trump criticism is an oversaturated market.&rdq...
Trade Policy Contradictions
There are numerous trade policy contradictions, both between the U.S. and other countries, and within U.S. politics. Internationally, China worries about its import dependence for oil and food, investing heavily in alternative energy and domestic food production while encouraging livestock prod...
FDA Approves PRRS Resistant Pigs
After years of research and a lengthy regulatory approval process, Genus Pig Improvement Company (PIC) has received clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the gene edited PRRS-resistant pig (PRP) to be used in the U.S. food supply chain. Genus executives note this is a s...
Monumental Task; Rushed Deal; Polypessimistic
Monumental Task Luke Lindberg appeared before the Senate Agriculture Committee yesterday to be interviewed for the position of USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. Because of the higher levels of protectionism in agriculture around the world, it is a tough position e...
Trade War Positions
Canadians reacted with understandable revulsion to President Trump’s insults to their nation. In yesterday’s election, they were given two choices: elect Conservative Pierre Poilievre as prime minister who pledged to build a better and stronger nation, or choose Liberal Mark Carney...
Canadian Elections
Canadian voters went to the polls last night. They selected Mark Carney, the current Prime Minister, as the leader of the new government. The writ of election was issued just over a month ago, on 23 March, after Governor General Mary Simon accepted a request to dissolve parliament from Prime Mi...
Quick Hits
Canadian Elections: Canada is going to the polls today. Earlier in the year, the Liberal Party was out of favor in Canada, but Trump’s talk of the 51st State has changed the dynamics of the election. Canada has six time zones, so the final results will be in late tonight. SCP Safegu...
Hard Hit with Benefits; American Consumerism; AI’s Trump Trade Solution
Hard Hit with Benefits U.S. agriculture will likely bear the brunt of retaliation by trading partners responding to Mr. Trump’s tariff war, but it could also be the largest beneficiary. Various capitals easily calculate that U.S. farmers strongly supported Trump for President, with farmin...
North Dakota and Glyphosate
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years – whether it will remain the only domestic producer of glyphosate in the U.S. Anderson became CEO in 2023 and at the time promised to have th...
Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid
Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). U.S. EPA, the EU’s EFSA and other reputable government agencies have found this to not be true. But it is enough for Bayer to los...
The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War
The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR officials, the former head of the U.S.-China Business Council, a former Obama Administration trade official, and the illustrious Asia expert Wen...
Barriers are Good; Squeezed in the Trade War; Calculating the Impacts; Tax is a Tax
Barriers are Good The issue de jour is tariffs. Donald Trump is vilified by conventionalists for the self-induced wound of raising this single barrier to business. As a businessman, Trump sees a complex web of market barriers. Domestic regulations, domestic taxes, but also foreign tariffs (taxe...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the EU rejected Washington’s offer to drop tariffs if Brussels reduces trade ties with China and removes food safety barriers to American...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to follow international labor rights and uphold high environmental standards. The EU already does this and is therefore not a concession. It offe...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by Memorial Day. The President told House Republicans today that they should not cut Medicaid, and they should not raise the cap on deducting st...
I Don’t Care; Rebalancing U.S. – Japan Trade
I Don’t Care That is likely President Trump’s attitude toward the WTO General Council’s castigation of his tariff war. Understandably, WTO members believe the complete flaunting of its rules by the U.S. undermines the entire organization. Both China and the EU want the U.S. na...
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Debt
On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the U.S, credit worthiness and warned about rising levels of government debt and a widening budget deficit, cutting its U.S, credit rating by one notch to AA1. Moody’s was the last of the Big Three agencies to downgrade the U.S. from a triple-A rating.&...
U.S. Agriculture Crisis
U.S. farmers’ export markets were challenging before the trade war, and they are not coming back. It is time for Plan B. The trade agreement still being negotiated with the United Kingdom will supposedly allow U.S. beef producers to fill up to 1.5 percent of the British market. Except the...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Pesticide Assault; WTO Attacks U.S.; African Future
Pesticide Assault The Wall Street Journal reported that RFK, Jr.’s intent to ban all pesticides is running into opposition from other officials in the Trump Administration. His critics worry that removing pesticides will drive up food costs and know that inflation is a key consumer concer...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
U.S. and China Agree to Cut Tariffs for 90 Days and Continue Negotiating
After weeks of Chinese denials that they were engaged in talks with the U.S on tariffs, the governments of the United States and the People’s Republic of China issued a joint statement this morning saying that they would rescind reciprocal tariffs for the coming 90 days. It included: ...
Trade Deal with UK
Yesterday, President Trump announced from the Oval Office a trade deal “in principle” with the UK, the first of its kind following the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. While details are still lacking, according to the Administration, the agreement includes increased market acc...
It’s Complicated
This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his opponents, of which there is a lengthy list. But as the journalist Matthew Continetti says, “Trump criticism is an oversaturated market.&rdq...
Trade Policy Contradictions
There are numerous trade policy contradictions, both between the U.S. and other countries, and within U.S. politics. Internationally, China worries about its import dependence for oil and food, investing heavily in alternative energy and domestic food production while encouraging livestock prod...
FDA Approves PRRS Resistant Pigs
After years of research and a lengthy regulatory approval process, Genus Pig Improvement Company (PIC) has received clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the gene edited PRRS-resistant pig (PRP) to be used in the U.S. food supply chain. Genus executives note this is a s...
Monumental Task; Rushed Deal; Polypessimistic
Monumental Task Luke Lindberg appeared before the Senate Agriculture Committee yesterday to be interviewed for the position of USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. Because of the higher levels of protectionism in agriculture around the world, it is a tough position e...
Trade War Positions
Canadians reacted with understandable revulsion to President Trump’s insults to their nation. In yesterday’s election, they were given two choices: elect Conservative Pierre Poilievre as prime minister who pledged to build a better and stronger nation, or choose Liberal Mark Carney...
Canadian Elections
Canadian voters went to the polls last night. They selected Mark Carney, the current Prime Minister, as the leader of the new government. The writ of election was issued just over a month ago, on 23 March, after Governor General Mary Simon accepted a request to dissolve parliament from Prime Mi...
Quick Hits
Canadian Elections: Canada is going to the polls today. Earlier in the year, the Liberal Party was out of favor in Canada, but Trump’s talk of the 51st State has changed the dynamics of the election. Canada has six time zones, so the final results will be in late tonight. SCP Safegu...
Hard Hit with Benefits; American Consumerism; AI’s Trump Trade Solution
Hard Hit with Benefits U.S. agriculture will likely bear the brunt of retaliation by trading partners responding to Mr. Trump’s tariff war, but it could also be the largest beneficiary. Various capitals easily calculate that U.S. farmers strongly supported Trump for President, with farmin...
North Dakota and Glyphosate
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years – whether it will remain the only domestic producer of glyphosate in the U.S. Anderson became CEO in 2023 and at the time promised to have th...
Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid
Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). U.S. EPA, the EU’s EFSA and other reputable government agencies have found this to not be true. But it is enough for Bayer to los...
The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War
The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR officials, the former head of the U.S.-China Business Council, a former Obama Administration trade official, and the illustrious Asia expert Wen...
Barriers are Good; Squeezed in the Trade War; Calculating the Impacts; Tax is a Tax
Barriers are Good The issue de jour is tariffs. Donald Trump is vilified by conventionalists for the self-induced wound of raising this single barrier to business. As a businessman, Trump sees a complex web of market barriers. Domestic regulations, domestic taxes, but also foreign tariffs (taxe...
Trade War Machinations; Chicken War; Uncomfortable Europe; MAHA Coke
Trade War Machinations EU trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic left Washington saying the Trump Administration’s trade policy goals were unclear. Yet, the EU rejected Washington’s offer to drop tariffs if Brussels reduces trade ties with China and removes food safety barriers to American...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Ethanol to the Rescue!
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) headed a letter of 15 other bipartisan Senators asking President Trump to permit the year-round sale of E15 fuel through the summer of 2025. The letter encouraged the use of temporary waivers under the Clean Air Act to exte...
MAHA and Bird Flu
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is trekking to Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona starting today to tout state laws that align with his “Make America Healthy Again” message. He’s promoting state-level policies that ban ultra-processed foods and dyes in public schools, restrict...