Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 13-19, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 397,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 10 percent...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.1/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Why Beef and Pork Prices May Fall Despite Strong Demand
Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed...
Livestock Roundup: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.3 million head, up slightly from March 2025 but down 1.5 percent from 1 December. The report was in line with the previous five-year average of a decrease of 1.8 percent from December to...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7175/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $319.8/short ton, down $2.6...
Market Commentary: Demand Builds, Markets Await Confirmation
Key Market Developments Macro: Playing or Trading “Truth or Dare” We’ve entered the “truth or dare” phase of this market — where conviction takes a backseat and headlines drive direction. At any given moment, the narrative shifts: progress in negotiations on...
Early 2026 Projections of Cow-Calf Finances
Cow-calf margins hit all-time record highs in 2025 as the industry benefited from the downstream impacts of record-breaking beef demand and the smallest beef cattle herd in decades. As WPI readers will know well, the resulting supply crunch boosted cattle prices across the production landscape...
Iran War Impacts; Trade Agreements
Iran War Impacts Confidence in the economy is often tied to partisan politics, with Democrats seeing green when they control the White House, and Republicans ready to invest when their party is in charge. War always creates uncertainty, but uncertainty does not determine the market. A famous gr...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 25 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, down $4.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
Thune Introduces Fertilizer Price Reporting Bill
The war in Iran has brought the four-year simmering focus on fertilizer prices to a quick boil. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) introduced the Fertilizer Transparency Act, cosponsored by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsi...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved further, with estimated net returns increasing to $126/head from $48/head the prior week. The gains were driven by another firming in the choice beef cutout, which rose to $392.85/cwt, while fed cattle prices were largely stable. The resulting expansion in the sprea...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
WTO Realism; Reindustrialization; Canadian Ego
WTO Realism The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins later this week, and while some have high hopes, pragmatists understand the elongated nature of consensus-based multinational policy development. EU trade minister Maroš Šefčovič expresses the hopes of his constituents...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
U.S. Cattle on Feed - March 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.549 million head on March 1, 2026 – similar to the year-ago total on March 1, 2025 of 11.577 head. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.61 million head - 4 percent above 2025. Mark...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Transportation Perspectives - 20 March
As you probably guessed, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive market sentiment for energy markets and tanker vessel rates. While there have been several developments in the region this week, the big picture factors are the same: the Strait of Hormuz is all but sealed to ve...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, up $10.8 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 58 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,100 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Great Timing; Farm Skeptics; War’s Impact; Thursday’s Tumults
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
Ethanol Production Outlook Amid Energy Rally
Yesterday, WPI briefly examined how biodiesel production margins have surged alongside broader energy markets following the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict. The surge in energy prices lifted biodiesel margins to two-year, if not higher, levels and has exerted a similar, positive effect on ethanol pro...
Transportation Perspectives - 13 March
The conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate developments in energy markets and crude oil or natural gas tanker vessels, but as time passes the conflict’s relatively minor impacts on the dry bulk and container sector are becoming clearer. After a short-lived jump, dry bulk freigh...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 27-March 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 455,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,000 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but dow...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month. The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...
WASDE Corn - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.8 million metric tons to 292.8 million. The season-average corn price received by U.S. producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel...
WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$111/head from -$206/head the prior week. The recovery was driven by another firming in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $379.00/cwt, while fed cattle prices softened modestly on the week. Even with the improvemen...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.33 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0075/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, up $7.9 from ye...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Transportation and Export Report - 5 March
As you might guess, it is all about the conflict in the Middle East this week when discussing anything connected to energy or freight markets. Rate estimates, fuel costs, and insurance premiums (if available) have all skyrocketed since the U.S. attacked Iran and Iran attacked 15 of its neighbor...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 20-26, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 348,900 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 24 percent fro...
Livestock Round Up: Preview of Feedlot Placements and Changing Canada Dynamics
Feeder cattle sales were up over a year ago in February, but much of that was due to February 2025 sales being light. Still, the increase in activity bears watching, both for what it implies about feedlot placements and for herd rebuilding. In the four weeks ending February 27, total feed...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.9/short ton, down $...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.705/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.7/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply last week but remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$206/head from the prior week’s extreme levels. The recovery was driven by a stronger boxed beef cutout, which rose to $371.62/cwt, while fed cattle prices moved lower on t...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.9/short ton, down...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.5/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Transportation and Export Report - 26 February
The start of 2026 has been the exact opposite of what dry bulk markets and traders expected at the end of 2025. Typically, the Lunar New Year and post-holiday demand lulls mean that Q1 freight rates are often the weakest of the year. This year, however, rates rallied sharply on unexpected deman...
Market Commentary: Late Corn Rally; Soyoil Aborts Complex; Wheat Splits
A mostly bullish overnight session was not sustained, splitting the soy complex and wheat. Corn rallied late to avert a loss. The morning opened with USDA’s Export Sales report reflecting the turn by buyers to lower-cost sources. There was good volume trading corn and the soy complex, and...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.745/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.9/short ton, down $0.9 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 13-19, 2026 Wheat: Net sales of 243,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 540,000 MT were up 67 percent from the previous week and 28 percent...
Livestock Round Up: Wholesale Protein CPI
During the State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Trump made several claims about food prices, citing reductions in costs to consumers. Food inflation is a major issue for voters, and the President is hyper-focused on beef prices in particular prior to the 2026 mid-term elections. The fin...
U.S. Soy & Product Export Trends
With soybean and soy product exports frequently in the headlines amid the ongoing tariff and policy shifts from Washington, examining export trends is increasingly important. Thursday’s updated Export Sales report from the USDA offered some interesting statistics for these markets, and WP...
Market Commentary: Stable Policy, Conditional Demand, Weather Emerging as the Next Risk
Key Market Developments While tariffs were not addressed directly in the State of the Union, trade policy remains steady. Reports during today’s session confirmed that U.S. tariffs on China will remain in the 35 percent–50 percent range, signaling limited escalation ahead of upcomin...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.65/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $321.8/short ton, up $7.4 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on PNW Export Rumors; Grains Ease on Profit Taking
The soy complex was the upside leader again on rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans from the PNW, as well as some harvest and quality issues in Brazil. Soyoil continued to find support from hopes that the EPA will release its biofuel policy obligations in the coming few days, though no...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.4/short ton, up $1.9 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply last week, with estimated net margins falling to -$330.80/hd, down $60.58/hd week over week. The Choice cutout held nearly flat at $365.62/cwt, but fed cattle prices continued to climb, with live steers at $246.91/cwt and dressed prices surging to $387.9...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Ruling, South America Weather Send CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Monday, with the back-and-forth action of the Supreme Court and President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign imports driving volatility. For the ag markets, the biggest impact of the SCOTUS ruling seems to be doubts that China will adhere to its soybean purchase plan, a...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.5/short ton, down $1.3 fro...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the fifth straight week. Funds added 95,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position, with buying in the soy complex driving about two-thirds of the increase. The soy complex saw...
Cattle on Feed - Feb 1, 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots totaled 11.5 million head on February 1, 2026 - 2 percent below Feb 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below 2025. Marketings during January totaled 1.63 million head, 13 percent below 2025. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 288,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 41 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 322,600 MT were down 44 percent from the previous week and 26 percen...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $5 from...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Transportation and Export Report
Dry bulk ocean freight markets are once again seeing diverging trends across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Key to this divergence is the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which started last weekend and will last through 3 March. That is putting much of Asia on hold for trading and vessel inqui...
Market Commentary: Mostly Bullish Except Corn Where Production Will Fall
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for February will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.4 percent of a year ago. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.53 million head. The total inventory on feed...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef complex margins weakened further in the week ending 14 February 2026, with estimated beef packer net margins sliding to -$270.22/hd (down $22.78/hd week over week) as higher cattle costs continued to outrun product values. The Choice cutout edged up to $365.30/cwt, but fed cattle prices mo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.41/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Navigate Energy Risk and Dollar Strength
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Tariff Impacts; HPF: the New Climate Change
Tariff Impacts Calculating the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs is heavy fodder for economists. Many made predictions about their impacts long before the rubber even met the road. Predictions of a tariff-caused recession have been debunked, and there is little impact on inflation. Now...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.335/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.9/short ton, down $1.9 fro...
Market Commentary: Weather Pressures Grains; Crush Pace Boosts Soybeans
The CBOT managed to recover from a dramatic overnight plunge with soybeans leading the fight to put values back in the green. Most of the news coming out of the weekend was bearish – between larger Russian wheat crop projections, the advancing South American harvests, and generally favora...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $3.4 fr...
House Farm Bill Text Released
Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), released the text of the farm bill on Friday. Markup is scheduled for next week. Some key highlights are shown below. Commodities: Directs reporting on dairy production expenses to ensure that producer costs ar...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend
There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...
President's Day
In observance of Presidents’ Day, both the CME/CBOT and our offices will be closed on Monday, 16 February. The next edition of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 17 February...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.33/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.2/short ton, up $1.3...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Transportation and Export Report - 13 February 2026
U.S. grain transportation markets are slowly recovering from the shocks of bitter cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System and from the surge in export demand. The latter is also causing strong rallies in ocean freight markets, particularly in the Atlantic basin. With g...
Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT
Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...
Sovereignty and Competitiveness; USMCA Battle
Sovereignty and Competitiveness So-called food sovereignty has animated European politics for decades. Now there is AI sovereignty because English is annoying or a national security risk. Taxes, regulations, and fines are thrown at dominant foreign companies to the point that Bloomberg says som...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Margins and Distribution
The recent February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast beef production to increase in 2026 due to greater slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter, and heavier dressed weights, all of which will provide some relief to the beef market. Also, th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.9/short ton, up $4.9 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 30-February 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 488,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 31 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 580,000 MT were up 44 percent from the previous week and 59 percent...
A Year in Review: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Processing Machinery
We now have nearly a year of data to work with on the impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. When they were first announced, there was quite a bit of conjecture and some sophisticated economic analysis about how trade flows would be impacted. This brief analysis will focus br...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 13-19, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 397,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 10 percent...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.05/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.1/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Why Beef and Pork Prices May Fall Despite Strong Demand
Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed...
Livestock Roundup: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.3 million head, up slightly from March 2025 but down 1.5 percent from 1 December. The report was in line with the previous five-year average of a decrease of 1.8 percent from December to...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7175/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $319.8/short ton, down $2.6...
Market Commentary: Demand Builds, Markets Await Confirmation
Key Market Developments Macro: Playing or Trading “Truth or Dare” We’ve entered the “truth or dare” phase of this market — where conviction takes a backseat and headlines drive direction. At any given moment, the narrative shifts: progress in negotiations on...
Early 2026 Projections of Cow-Calf Finances
Cow-calf margins hit all-time record highs in 2025 as the industry benefited from the downstream impacts of record-breaking beef demand and the smallest beef cattle herd in decades. As WPI readers will know well, the resulting supply crunch boosted cattle prices across the production landscape...
Iran War Impacts; Trade Agreements
Iran War Impacts Confidence in the economy is often tied to partisan politics, with Democrats seeing green when they control the White House, and Republicans ready to invest when their party is in charge. War always creates uncertainty, but uncertainty does not determine the market. A famous gr...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 25 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.55/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.4/short ton, down $4.2 from y...
Market Commentary: Diminishing Energy Impacts on CBOT Trade
Tuesday’s energy markets took back about half of Monday’s losses as tensions in the Arab Gulf flared again, despite recent announcements of diplomatic talks and a five-day cooling-down period from the U.S. Overnight, Iran and Israel launched new rounds of attacks on each other, and...
Thune Introduces Fertilizer Price Reporting Bill
The war in Iran has brought the four-year simmering focus on fertilizer prices to a quick boil. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) introduced the Fertilizer Transparency Act, cosponsored by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsi...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved further, with estimated net returns increasing to $126/head from $48/head the prior week. The gains were driven by another firming in the choice beef cutout, which rose to $392.85/cwt, while fed cattle prices were largely stable. The resulting expansion in the sprea...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8775/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $326.6/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Oil and Iran Conflict Still in Drivers’ Seat, but This Time Creating Pressure
Volatility has been no stranger to the CBOT these past three weeks, and the one consistency during this time has been the dramatic coupling of ag markets’ fortunes to the foibles of crude oil. That was again true on Monday, but this time crude oil offered a bearish – rather than sup...
WTO Realism; Reindustrialization; Canadian Ego
WTO Realism The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins later this week, and while some have high hopes, pragmatists understand the elongated nature of consensus-based multinational policy development. EU trade minister Maroš Šefčovič expresses the hopes of his constituents...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
U.S. Cattle on Feed - March 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.549 million head on March 1, 2026 – similar to the year-ago total on March 1, 2025 of 11.577 head. Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.61 million head - 4 percent above 2025. Mark...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the ninth straight week. Funds added 32,000 contracts (3.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a much smaller effort than the prior week’s 244,000-contract bu...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.655/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9525/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $328/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Pragmatic Escape Ahead of Weekend
On Monday of this week, traders were met with limit-down losses in soybeans, plus double-digit losses in corn, soymeal, and wheat. For many, it didn’t feel good. The war in Iran presented surprises, including the postponement of a Trump-Xi meeting expected to sell some soybeans. Fundament...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.5 million head, just slightly below last year. Marketings were 1.52 million head, at 93 percent of last year, in line with the pre...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Transportation Perspectives - 20 March
As you probably guessed, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive market sentiment for energy markets and tanker vessel rates. While there have been several developments in the region this week, the big picture factors are the same: the Strait of Hormuz is all but sealed to ve...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.08/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.685/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, up $10.8 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 189,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 58 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 383,100 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Energy Pulls Futures Higher, For Now
Tomorrow is Nowruz (spring equinox), the Persian New Year, but there will likely be no break from the war. There continued to be upward price pressure on grains and oilseeds, chasing the spike in fossil fuel prices. There may be ample fertilizer for Northern Hemisphere crops nearing planting ti...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for March will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.5 million head. The pre-report estimates were spl...
Market Commentary: Macro Pressure and Energy Strength Lift Grain Markets
Key Market Developments Macro: Reinforcing a Higher-for-Longer Environment Today’s inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price in: a more persistent, “higher for longer” rate environment. U.S. producer prices came in above expectations, with headline...
Great Timing; Farm Skeptics; War’s Impact; Thursday’s Tumults
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.57/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $311.7/short ton, down $0.5 from ye...
Market Commentary: Energies, Acreage Worries Support Soybeans; Wheat Drifts Lower
CBOT ag futures were highly mixed on Tuesday as traders recovered from Monday’s drubbing and limit-down move in soybeans and soyoil. At Monday’s close, the options market was suggesting soybeans and soyoil were trading significantly lower than the limit-down close permitted, but tho...
Greeley JBS Beef Plant on Strike
The JBS beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, went on strike yesterday. Today is day two of the labor shutdown. The Greeley plant can process about 6,000 head per day, or 5 percent of the U.S. beef supply. This is a major disruption. Notably, it comes on the heels of Tyson closing its plant in Lexin...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins turned positive for the first time since late last year as returns improved to $53/head last week. The turnaround was driven by a strong increase in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $388.16/cwt, while fed cattle prices declined further on the week. The threat of the labo...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.54/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9725/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, down $0.7 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, down $10...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Oil Optimism, China Trade Worries; Fund Length Now a Liability
As quickly as it began, the U.S.-Iran war-fueled rally in commodity markets looks to be ending. Over the weekend and through Monday, several reports came in that highlighted political efforts to resume vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps most important was news that President T...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the eighth straight week. Funds added 244,000 contracts (40 percent) to their all-ags net long position – a massive weekly increase - with buying in corn and the soy complex...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6725/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1375/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2525/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $322.7/short ton, up $2.5 f...
Market Commentary: Another Week of War and Commodity Gains
Corn and soybeans closed lower in the overnight session, and wheat joined them in trading lower this morning for a brief period before a turnaround that also pulled corn higher by the close. Soybeans couldn’t quite get there but did manage to erase the double-digit losses seen earlier in...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
Ethanol Production Outlook Amid Energy Rally
Yesterday, WPI briefly examined how biodiesel production margins have surged alongside broader energy markets following the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict. The surge in energy prices lifted biodiesel margins to two-year, if not higher, levels and has exerted a similar, positive effect on ethanol pro...
Transportation Perspectives - 13 March
The conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate developments in energy markets and crude oil or natural gas tanker vessels, but as time passes the conflict’s relatively minor impacts on the dry bulk and container sector are becoming clearer. After a short-lived jump, dry bulk freigh...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 27-March 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 455,400 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 432,000 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but dow...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.2/short ton, up $4.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Energy Volatility Sets the Tone for Commodities
Key Market Developments Crude oil has been the architect behind the violent price swings seen across the grain markets over the last four trading sessions. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have been trading almost as a mirror to crude oil, with speculative capital moving rapidly between markets as ene...
Livestock Round Up: CPI Overview
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) yesterday. During February, the CPI for all items increased by 0.3 percent and was up 2.4 percent year over year. The categories of shelter, food, and energy were the major contributors to February inflation...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month. The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...
WASDE Corn - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.8 million metric tons to 292.8 million. The season-average corn price received by U.S. producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel...
WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $315.4/short ton, up $0.9 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Volatility Drives CBOT More than WASDE
Usually, the day USDA releases its monthly world supply and demand report – known colloquially as “WASDE day” – sees heightened volatility in CBOT ag futures. That was true again Tuesday, though there was little causal connection between the WASDE and the market’s...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5225/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.91/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0175/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.5/short ton, up $1 fro...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$111/head from -$206/head the prior week. The recovery was driven by another firming in the boxed beef cutout, which rose to $379.00/cwt, while fed cattle prices softened modestly on the week. Even with the improvemen...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.5375/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.9625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $313.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the seventh straight week. Funds added 125,000 contracts (27 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with buying in soybeans and corn primarily responsible for the move. ...
Market Commentary: War, Crude Oil Still Dominate
The geopolitics of war in Iran are said to now be eclipsing any market focus on next week’s USDA March WASDE report. Volumes were modest in today’s trading, but the message was nonetheless clear – shipping grain and inputs is getting complicated. Notably, the ratio of De...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $6.1675/bushel, up $0.33 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $12.0075/bushel, up $0.215 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, up $7.9 from ye...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Transportation and Export Report - 5 March
As you might guess, it is all about the conflict in the Middle East this week when discussing anything connected to energy or freight markets. Rate estimates, fuel costs, and insurance premiums (if available) have all skyrocketed since the U.S. attacked Iran and Iran attacked 15 of its neighbor...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 20-26, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 348,900 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 24 percent fro...
Livestock Round Up: Preview of Feedlot Placements and Changing Canada Dynamics
Feeder cattle sales were up over a year ago in February, but much of that was due to February 2025 sales being light. Still, the increase in activity bears watching, both for what it implies about feedlot placements and for herd rebuilding. In the four weeks ending February 27, total feed...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.695/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.9/short ton, down $...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.465/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.74/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.705/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.7/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved sharply last week but remained deeply negative, with estimated net losses narrowing to -$206/head from the prior week’s extreme levels. The recovery was driven by a stronger boxed beef cutout, which rose to $371.62/cwt, while fed cattle prices moved lower on t...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.9/short ton, down...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.5/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Transportation and Export Report - 26 February
The start of 2026 has been the exact opposite of what dry bulk markets and traders expected at the end of 2025. Typically, the Lunar New Year and post-holiday demand lulls mean that Q1 freight rates are often the weakest of the year. This year, however, rates rallied sharply on unexpected deman...
Market Commentary: Late Corn Rally; Soyoil Aborts Complex; Wheat Splits
A mostly bullish overnight session was not sustained, splitting the soy complex and wheat. Corn rallied late to avert a loss. The morning opened with USDA’s Export Sales report reflecting the turn by buyers to lower-cost sources. There was good volume trading corn and the soy complex, and...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.745/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.9/short ton, down $0.9 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 13-19, 2026 Wheat: Net sales of 243,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 540,000 MT were up 67 percent from the previous week and 28 percent...
Livestock Round Up: Wholesale Protein CPI
During the State of the Union (SOTU) address, President Trump made several claims about food prices, citing reductions in costs to consumers. Food inflation is a major issue for voters, and the President is hyper-focused on beef prices in particular prior to the 2026 mid-term elections. The fin...
U.S. Soy & Product Export Trends
With soybean and soy product exports frequently in the headlines amid the ongoing tariff and policy shifts from Washington, examining export trends is increasingly important. Thursday’s updated Export Sales report from the USDA offered some interesting statistics for these markets, and WP...
Market Commentary: Stable Policy, Conditional Demand, Weather Emerging as the Next Risk
Key Market Developments While tariffs were not addressed directly in the State of the Union, trade policy remains steady. Reports during today’s session confirmed that U.S. tariffs on China will remain in the 35 percent–50 percent range, signaling limited escalation ahead of upcomin...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.65/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $321.8/short ton, up $7.4 from...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on PNW Export Rumors; Grains Ease on Profit Taking
The soy complex was the upside leader again on rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans from the PNW, as well as some harvest and quality issues in Brazil. Soyoil continued to find support from hopes that the EPA will release its biofuel policy obligations in the coming few days, though no...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.4/short ton, up $1.9 f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply last week, with estimated net margins falling to -$330.80/hd, down $60.58/hd week over week. The Choice cutout held nearly flat at $365.62/cwt, but fed cattle prices continued to climb, with live steers at $246.91/cwt and dressed prices surging to $387.9...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Ruling, South America Weather Send CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Monday, with the back-and-forth action of the Supreme Court and President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign imports driving volatility. For the ag markets, the biggest impact of the SCOTUS ruling seems to be doubts that China will adhere to its soybean purchase plan, a...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.5/short ton, down $1.3 fro...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the fifth straight week. Funds added 95,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position, with buying in the soy complex driving about two-thirds of the increase. The soy complex saw...
Cattle on Feed - Feb 1, 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots totaled 11.5 million head on February 1, 2026 - 2 percent below Feb 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below 2025. Marketings during January totaled 1.63 million head, 13 percent below 2025. ...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 288,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 41 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 322,600 MT were down 44 percent from the previous week and 26 percen...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $5 from...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Transportation and Export Report
Dry bulk ocean freight markets are once again seeing diverging trends across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Key to this divergence is the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which started last weekend and will last through 3 March. That is putting much of Asia on hold for trading and vessel inqui...
Market Commentary: Mostly Bullish Except Corn Where Production Will Fall
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for February will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.4 percent of a year ago. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.53 million head. The total inventory on feed...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef complex margins weakened further in the week ending 14 February 2026, with estimated beef packer net margins sliding to -$270.22/hd (down $22.78/hd week over week) as higher cattle costs continued to outrun product values. The Choice cutout edged up to $365.30/cwt, but fed cattle prices mo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.41/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Navigate Energy Risk and Dollar Strength
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Tariff Impacts; HPF: the New Climate Change
Tariff Impacts Calculating the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs is heavy fodder for economists. Many made predictions about their impacts long before the rubber even met the road. Predictions of a tariff-caused recession have been debunked, and there is little impact on inflation. Now...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.335/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.9/short ton, down $1.9 fro...
Market Commentary: Weather Pressures Grains; Crush Pace Boosts Soybeans
The CBOT managed to recover from a dramatic overnight plunge with soybeans leading the fight to put values back in the green. Most of the news coming out of the weekend was bearish – between larger Russian wheat crop projections, the advancing South American harvests, and generally favora...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $3.4 fr...
House Farm Bill Text Released
Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), released the text of the farm bill on Friday. Markup is scheduled for next week. Some key highlights are shown below. Commodities: Directs reporting on dairy production expenses to ensure that producer costs ar...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend
There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...
President's Day
In observance of Presidents’ Day, both the CME/CBOT and our offices will be closed on Monday, 16 February. The next edition of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 17 February...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.33/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.2/short ton, up $1.3...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Transportation and Export Report - 13 February 2026
U.S. grain transportation markets are slowly recovering from the shocks of bitter cold weather and low water levels on the Mississippi River System and from the surge in export demand. The latter is also causing strong rallies in ocean freight markets, particularly in the Atlantic basin. With g...
Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT
Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...
Sovereignty and Competitiveness; USMCA Battle
Sovereignty and Competitiveness So-called food sovereignty has animated European politics for decades. Now there is AI sovereignty because English is annoying or a national security risk. Taxes, regulations, and fines are thrown at dominant foreign companies to the point that Bloomberg says som...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Margins and Distribution
The recent February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast beef production to increase in 2026 due to greater slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter, and heavier dressed weights, all of which will provide some relief to the beef market. Also, th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.9/short ton, up $4.9 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 30-February 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 488,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 31 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 580,000 MT were up 44 percent from the previous week and 59 percent...
A Year in Review: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Processing Machinery
We now have nearly a year of data to work with on the impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. When they were first announced, there was quite a bit of conjecture and some sophisticated economic analysis about how trade flows would be impacted. This brief analysis will focus br...