Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.7/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Beyond the Report Headlines: Measuring Trump’s Effects
The BLS released the employment report this morning indicating that the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, down slightly from April’s revised 147,000, but slightly above pre-report forecasts of 126,000. However, payrolls were revised downward an unusually large 95,000 for the prior two month...
Even After Recent Market Gains, Hog and Pork Outlook Remains Rosy
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. The USDA will issue their quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at the end of June, which will help inform the ind...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Markets In paper dry-bulk markets, the Capesize sector increased slightly this week on stronger demand from miners, but the move was insufficient to support the Panamax or Supramax markets, which turned lower. Most of the dry bulk markets are simply waiting for the economies of C...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Export Sale
Export Sales and Shipments for May 23-29, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 49,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025. Export shipments of 540,100 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Indonesia (81,100 M...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $0 from...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Herd Rebuilding
The cattle herd is at historic lows and herd rebuilding has continued to be put off. Profitability is the key factor, and near record cattle prices have incentivized producers for the past couple of years pushing off herd rebuilding. To date, heavier carcass weights have helped mitigate some of...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved agricultural products. Her specific examples included, “50 percent from the European Union on American dairy, you have a 700 percent t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $2.6 fro...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different countries have taken different approaches in responding to the tariff war. Smaller southwest and southeast Asian countries have generally b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Feeder Cattle Outlook
Feeder steer prices remain at historic highs across all major regions, averaging 22.9 percent higher year-over- year, and 58 percent higher than the five-year average. Some of the biggest gains have been in the Southern Plains, most affected by the imports of Mexican feeder cattle which are pro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Strong meat demand for the first weekend of the unofficial summer grilling season helped both beef and pork packer margins improve last week. Beef packer margins jumped $10 higher and hit their most profitable level in four weeks, which isn’t much to celebrate given margins were previousl...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.9/short ton, down $2.4...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 2 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on much and signals that Xi and Trump will talk this week may or may not be true. Meanwhile, more U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kick in this...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net short position across all ags by 73 percent last week and now hold an essentially neutral position of 20,000 contracts short. Most of that buy...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 501,200 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 12 per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pounds and is now expected to be up just 1.1 percent from the previous year. At the beginning of the year, projections were for a 1.4 percent i...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 26 May is a U.S. holiday, the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 27 May. The WPI staff hopes everyone has a good weekend...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of last year. This weekend commences the summer grilling season. Placements were 1.6 million head, 97 percent of last year, compare...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ financial outlook continues to improve with the recent gains in feeder cattle prices and overall weakness in feed costs so far in 2025. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015, but recent gains in expected profits sugg...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 438,400 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.5 percent of last year with the range of estimates between an incredibly tight 98.3 percent and 98.8 percent of 1 May 2024. &nbs...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to follow international labor rights and uphold high environmental standards. The EU already does this and is therefore not a concession. It offe...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by Memorial Day. The President told House Republicans today that they should not cut Medicaid, and they should not raise the cap on deducting st...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins improved for the first time in several weeks last week with gains in beef and pork prices offsetting gains in market animal values. Beef packer margins improved by $17/head last week but remain at their second-lowest levels in the past 15 years due to high fed cattle costs...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Fake is Out
Health and Human Services Secretary RFK, Jr. wants to stop demand for fake food colorings and Americans are slowing demand for fake food products. The demand for plant-based milks skyrocketed in percentage terms just a few years ago. Farm state politicians rushed to regulate the use of the word...
I Don’t Care; Rebalancing U.S. – Japan Trade
I Don’t Care That is likely President Trump’s attitude toward the WTO General Council’s castigation of his tariff war. Understandably, WTO members believe the complete flaunting of its rules by the U.S. undermines the entire organization. Both China and the EU want the U.S. na...
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Debt
On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the U.S, credit worthiness and warned about rising levels of government debt and a widening budget deficit, cutting its U.S, credit rating by one notch to AA1. Moody’s was the last of the Big Three agencies to downgrade the U.S. from a triple-A rating.&...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming split on their views for the grains and oilseeds complexes going forward. Funds were bearish grains as they sold a combined 120,000 contracts in corn and all three classes of wheat futures while buying 23,000 contracts ac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
U.S. Agriculture Crisis
U.S. farmers’ export markets were challenging before the trade war, and they are not coming back. It is time for Plan B. The trade agreement still being negotiated with the United Kingdom will supposedly allow U.S. beef producers to fill up to 1.5 percent of the British market. Except the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $4.5 f...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Freight Market Updates and WPI Freight App
Transportation and Freight Market Comments Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets continue to drift sideways or lower as they wait for improved cargo demand. This past week saw continued limited cargo demand and vessel owners are trying defend rates while buyers bring unmotivated inquiries. Th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 2-8, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 58,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 371,400 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Shortage Still Affecting Prices
Cattle supply still matters. USDA has announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. Economic fundamentals, such as tight cattle supplies, still play a role in supporting prices in the outly...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s price action. The weather outlooks – favorable for the Corn Belt and dry for the Southern Plains, Europe, and Black Sea – creat...
Pesticide Assault; WTO Attacks U.S.; African Future
Pesticide Assault The Wall Street Journal reported that RFK, Jr.’s intent to ban all pesticides is running into opposition from other officials in the Trump Administration. His critics worry that removing pesticides will drive up food costs and know that inflation is a key consumer concer...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
Bearish Wheat Report, Bullish Foundation
USDA’s May WASDE report was perhaps surprisingly bearish wheat. Futures hit yet more new record lows again today. For the U.S., USDA found higher yields running into lower demand. Globally, the agency sees increasing production even in countries like Russia and China where conditions have...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
WASDE Livestock
The May WASDE included this disclaimer: Effective May 11, 2025, the USDA announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. Forecasts in this report reflect this suspension and, in the abs...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened again last week as profits for both beef and pork packers declined. Beef packer margins were sharply lower and hit another record low at -$253/head thanks to record highs in fed cattle prices that outpaced gains in the beef markets. Pork packer margins turned negati...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7125/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.1/short ton, up $4 fro...
Market Commentary: Market Movers Galore Move Markets
A tariff truce, export inspections, WASDE and crop progress. Monday was action packed and the much-anticipated USDA May WASDE report did not disappoint. In general, it was mixed for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat. In fact, all three major wheat contracts registered new contra...
U.S. and China Agree to Cut Tariffs for 90 Days and Continue Negotiating
After weeks of Chinese denials that they were engaged in talks with the U.S on tariffs, the governments of the United States and the People’s Republic of China issued a joint statement this morning saying that they would rescind reciprocal tariffs for the coming 90 days. It included: ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report highlighted funds’ increasingly bearish view on ag commodities with managed money traders emerging as net sellers across the major grain and oilseeds futures. Funds’ net position across the soy complex, corn, wheat, and livestock futures fell 30 percent la...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and soymeal. All major ags opened higher but soymeal quickly reversed, and all three wheats headed south about an hour into the session. Monday&...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down $0...
Trade Deal with UK
Yesterday, President Trump announced from the Oval Office a trade deal “in principle” with the UK, the first of its kind following the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. While details are still lacking, according to the Administration, the agreement includes increased market acc...
Corn & Soybean Outlook: Riding Seasonal Patterns
With markets awaiting the May WASDE and USDA’s first comprehensive look at the 2025/26 crop balance sheets, many traders and analysts are looking for major fundamental developments that could influence the outlook. Regarding fundamental developments, the major grain and oilseed markets ha...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes
Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was rejected by day traders. Neither solid corn export sales, weather concerns in European and Chinese wheat, nor the prospect of trade agreement reli...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 25-May 1, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 493,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 10 perce...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, down $0.3...
Livestock Roundup: North American Beef and Pork Forecast
The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would have to be around 9 percent – or less – and heifer retention must increase in order to enter into an expansion phase. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and South America, and as-expected export volumes minimizing the need for a major move. Soyoil has pulled back sharply amid weakness in crude oil an...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The first step in what is likely to be a prolonged process was welcomed by the industry as it at least shows a willingness from both parties to t...
It’s Complicated
This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his opponents, of which there is a lengthy list. But as the journalist Matthew Continetti says, “Trump criticism is an oversaturated market.&rdq...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3925/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295/short ton, up $2 f...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy complex as funds turn increasingly bearish amid a favorable supply outlook for 2025. The grains sector saw a bit more support with wheat risi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Dollar Exchange Rate Impacts on Trade
President Trump is using tariffs to rectify what he asserts is the unfair practices by other countries. He also accuses trading partners of currency manipulation. He is correct that currency exchange rates impact the competitiveness of U.S. exports. USDA’s Economic Research Service mainta...
Recession Watch
Real GDP dipped at a -0.3 percent annual rate in Q1, the first decline for any quarter since 2022. However, the main reason was that trade with other countries accounted for the largest drag on the economy for any quarter since at least 1947, as both consumers and companies loaded up on goods f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened last week for both the beef and pork sector as higher animal costs exceeded any gains in meat values. Beef packer margins fell $43/head last week and scored a new 15-year low according to WPI’s models as fed cattle prices surged and outpaced a $5 gain in the c...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommercial short positions weighing on market sentiment. Cattle futures managed to rise to new all-time highs after last week’s record-breakin...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.5/short ton, down...
Trade Policy Contradictions
There are numerous trade policy contradictions, both between the U.S. and other countries, and within U.S. politics. Internationally, China worries about its import dependence for oil and food, investing heavily in alternative energy and domestic food production while encouraging livestock prod...
FDA Approves PRRS Resistant Pigs
After years of research and a lengthy regulatory approval process, Genus Pig Improvement Company (PIC) has received clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the gene edited PRRS-resistant pig (PRP) to be used in the U.S. food supply chain. Genus executives note this is a s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The only exceptions to the bearish trend was the continued buying in the livestock complex and, in a bit of a switch from recent trends, across th...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day
It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session it had been joined by old crop corn. New crop corn joined all three wheats and soybeans with a higher close. Hogs opened lower but then reve...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.58/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.9/short ton, up $2.6 from ye...
Trade Deals Being Worked on With Japan, China, and the EU
Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is in D.C. to talk trade. During a two-hour meeting with various officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Akazawa called for a review of recent U.S. tariffs, and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said today Japan will not sacrifice its national...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 18-24, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 72,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 491,700 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from t...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own
It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May WASDE is likely to boost estimates for corn and soybean exports, but that is still nearly two weeks away. Instead, today’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5025/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $3.7...
Livestock Round Up: Broiler Outlook 2025
Broiler fundamentals continue to be favorable largely due to tight beef supplies and a more favorable value proposition versus the rest of the beef and pork markets. Prices have continued their gains since last summer, and with below historical average feed prices, processing margins have expan...
Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve
The Market Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were essentially unchanged. The board crush margin (that is, the margin implied by CBOT soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures) is up 6.5 percent f...
Market Commentary: Q1 GDP Slowdown Hits Equities, Cattle Markets; Grains Gain while Soybeans Slumber
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with grain and oilseed markets lacking much fresh fundamental news, other than weather updates and the first deliveries against May futures. The delivery data showed surprisingly heavy deliveries against soymeal, soyoil, and KCBT wheat and unexpectedly light deli...
Monumental Task; Rushed Deal; Polypessimistic
Monumental Task Luke Lindberg appeared before the Senate Agriculture Committee yesterday to be interviewed for the position of USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. Because of the higher levels of protectionism in agriculture around the world, it is a tough position e...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.445/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Record Rally; Wheat Finds New Lows; Corn, Soyoil Collapse
The CBOT tried to rally overnight and posted some slight gains heading into the morning break, but thereafter the market quickly found selling pressure. Monday’s favorable Crop Progress and conditions report from USDA offered much of the justification for the selling pressure and helped s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5275/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $2.3...
Trade War Positions
Canadians reacted with understandable revulsion to President Trump’s insults to their nation. In yesterday’s election, they were given two choices: elect Conservative Pierre Poilievre as prime minister who pledged to build a better and stronger nation, or choose Liberal Mark Carney...
Canadian Elections
Canadian voters went to the polls last night. They selected Mark Carney, the current Prime Minister, as the leader of the new government. The writ of election was issued just over a month ago, on 23 March, after Governor General Mary Simon accepted a request to dissolve parliament from Prime Mi...
Livestock Industry Margins
The pork industry saw production margins improve last week as strong pork demand lifted prices for both the pork cutout and physical hogs. Pork packer margins ticked slightly higher as gains in the pork market outpaced those in the hog market while higher lean hog futures and a slight dip in fe...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much of the pressure. Wheat was the big loser for the day with favorable weather in the major growing regions prompting a strong wave of selling f...
Quick Hits
Canadian Elections: Canada is going to the polls today. Earlier in the year, the Liberal Party was out of favor in Canada, but Trump’s talk of the 51st State has changed the dynamics of the election. Canada has six time zones, so the final results will be in late tonight. SCP Safegu...
Hard Hit with Benefits; American Consumerism; AI’s Trump Trade Solution
Hard Hit with Benefits U.S. agriculture will likely bear the brunt of retaliation by trading partners responding to Mr. Trump’s tariff war, but it could also be the largest beneficiary. Various capitals easily calculate that U.S. farmers strongly supported Trump for President, with farmin...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, down $2.6...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...
Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week
With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some input, and especially focus on the May 12 WASDE. It will be the first keen look at the balance sheets for MY 2025/26. It was the fifth...
North Dakota and Glyphosate
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years – whether it will remain the only domestic producer of glyphosate in the U.S. Anderson became CEO in 2023 and at the time promised to have th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5925/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseeds. Both opened lower this morning but climbed out of the hole to end higher. Wheat closed lower overnight and opened that way this mornin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 145,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 479,600 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Livestock Round Up: 2024 Slaughter Totals
The annual livestock slaughter data for 2024 was released Tuesday from USDA. Despite a reduced cattle supply, beef production totaled 27 billion pounds, up slightly from 2023 based on heavier weights, especially in the fall. For 2023, total pounds produced were also about 27 billion pounds, dow...
Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong
The Market The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in global trade war(s) offering support. CBOT soybean futures have pushed slightly higher with support from firmer soyoil values, and this has hel...
Market Commentary: Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Hits New Lows; More Trump Uncertainty
The CBOT was mixed again on Wednesday with grains seeing pressure from fund selling and a lack of significant news while soybeans and livestock traded higher. There are no serious weather issues in the U.S., South America, or Europe right now, which is taking ammunition away from grain bulls. T...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4025/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.6/short ton, down $0...
Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid
Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). U.S. EPA, the EU’s EFSA and other reputable government agencies have found this to not be true. But it is enough for Bayer to los...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop analysts’ upward revisions to the Brazilian and Argentine corn crops, which combined with a strong start to planting the U.S. 2025 crop...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.35/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.8 fr...
HPAI Waning This Spring
In 2022 and 2023, most HPAI cases affected producers during the spring and fall. The years 2024 and 2025 were different, however. The bulk of cases occurred during the winter months. Between December 2024 and February 2025, approximately 53.7 million egg layers, turkeys, and broilers were culle...
The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War
The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR officials, the former head of the U.S.-China Business Council, a former Obama Administration trade official, and the illustrious Asia expert Wen...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
Barriers are Good; Squeezed in the Trade War; Calculating the Impacts; Tax is a Tax
Barriers are Good The issue de jour is tariffs. Donald Trump is vilified by conventionalists for the self-induced wound of raising this single barrier to business. As a businessman, Trump sees a complex web of market barriers. Domestic regulations, domestic taxes, but also foreign tariffs (taxe...
Market Commentary: Strong Friday and an Upward Bound Week
If yesterday’s trading looked like uncertainty ultimately succumbing to the bulls, today’s trading opened with the bears fully in charge. Contracts opened lower and mostly stayed that way until late morning when there appeared to be an epiphany with the bulls and they took charge. I...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.7/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Beyond the Report Headlines: Measuring Trump’s Effects
The BLS released the employment report this morning indicating that the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, down slightly from April’s revised 147,000, but slightly above pre-report forecasts of 126,000. However, payrolls were revised downward an unusually large 95,000 for the prior two month...
Even After Recent Market Gains, Hog and Pork Outlook Remains Rosy
Anyone following the hog and pork markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. The USDA will issue their quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at the end of June, which will help inform the ind...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Markets In paper dry-bulk markets, the Capesize sector increased slightly this week on stronger demand from miners, but the move was insufficient to support the Panamax or Supramax markets, which turned lower. Most of the dry bulk markets are simply waiting for the economies of C...
Market Commentary: Volatility But Stability
It was a very active open this morning with lots of lead changes as corn and soybean traders wrestled over whether bears or bulls were in control. Even winter wheat, which looked solidly in the green took a brief turn south. Volumes were robust and trade volatile but in the end, only bean oil a...
Export Sale
Export Sales and Shipments for May 23-29, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 49,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025. Export shipments of 540,100 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Indonesia (81,100 M...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.395/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.455/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $0 from...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Crush Margins Set to Rise; China Soymeal Prices Remain Weak
The Market U.S. soybean prices have mostly been treading water these past few weeks with neither bulls nor bears able to get the upper hand for more than a few days. Continued trade war worries and challenges building negotiations between the U.S. and China have contributed to recent weak...
Livestock Roundup: Beef Herd Rebuilding
The cattle herd is at historic lows and herd rebuilding has continued to be put off. Profitability is the key factor, and near record cattle prices have incentivized producers for the past couple of years pushing off herd rebuilding. To date, heavier carcass weights have helped mitigate some of...
Market Commentary: Bulls Gain Upper Hand for Now
Grain, oilseed, and livestock futures were all higher at the CBOT on Wednesday with various combinations of end-user buying, short covering, and improved technical conditions helped lift markets. The day’s trade was largely a continuation of this week’s early strength in futures, wh...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved agricultural products. Her specific examples included, “50 percent from the European Union on American dairy, you have a 700 percent t...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, up $2.6 fro...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Role Reversals on Turnaround Tuesday
The CBOT saw a role reversal on Tuesday with the previously bearish-led corn and soybean markets finding technical and some fundamental support, while wheat futures drifted lower. Too, live cattle futures and July lean hogs both posted Turnaround Tuesdays as bulls became cautious with prices ne...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different countries have taken different approaches in responding to the tariff war. Smaller southwest and southeast Asian countries have generally b...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.385/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.6 from...
Feeder Cattle Outlook
Feeder steer prices remain at historic highs across all major regions, averaging 22.9 percent higher year-over- year, and 58 percent higher than the five-year average. Some of the biggest gains have been in the Southern Plains, most affected by the imports of Mexican feeder cattle which are pro...
Livestock Industry Margins
Strong meat demand for the first weekend of the unofficial summer grilling season helped both beef and pork packer margins improve last week. Beef packer margins jumped $10 higher and hit their most profitable level in four weeks, which isn’t much to celebrate given margins were previousl...
Market Commentary: Bears Control Corn, Soybeans; Wheat Rally Struggles
The major development at the CBOT on Monday was that bears finally gained full control of the corn and soybean markets with multiple bearish headlines allowing them to do so. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and slow political progress on Capitol Hill pressured the soy complex overnigh...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.39/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.335/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.9/short ton, down $2.4...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 2 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on much and signals that Xi and Trump will talk this week may or may not be true. Meanwhile, more U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kick in this...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag markets, or at least less bearish. Funds cut their net short position across all ags by 73 percent last week and now hold an essentially neutral position of 20,000 contracts short. Most of that buy...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 16-22, 2025. Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 501,200 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 12 per...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, down $0.1 from yest...
Market Commentary: Bears Rule Mostly; Rain and Sunshine Make Grain
Wheat and pigs were the day’s winners, with much of the rest of the contracts bleeding red. President Trump’s war of words with China added some negative energy on the day. It was similar for the week with HRS and hogs adding value, and soymeal higher by a miniscule fraction, but th...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Challenging Analogues
Drew Lerner at World Weather, Inc. makes an interesting analogy between U.S. weather this spring, and that of 1968. Both this year and 1968 involved recovery from peak solar activity (sunspots) and neutral ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) conditions. He looked at seven previous...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.4/short ton, up $2.7 from...
Market Commentary: Volatility versus Fundamentals
Markets have been trending lower this week and while soybeans and SRW teased lower numbers this morning, both ultimately turned around and left corn and soyoil the lonely losers for the day. HRS continued to bounce on the lower crop rating early this week. In contrast to SRW and HRW, HRS is up...
Livestock Roundup: Chicken Weights Suggest Sandwich War Return
USDA updated its forecast for broiler production in 2025 and released its initial estimate for 2026. The 2025 estimate was revised lower by 260 million pounds and is now expected to be up just 1.1 percent from the previous year. At the beginning of the year, projections were for a 1.4 percent i...
Market Commentary: Crop Progress Silver Linings Pressure Corn, Soybeans
CBOT markets were mostly mixed in quiet trade overnight, but that tenor changed quickly once the day session started. The Crop Progress report initially appeared supportive for the major markets with planting slowing for corn and soybeans and corn and spring wheat conditions coming in below exp...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.485/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.7/short ton, down $2.6 f...
Market Commentary: Wheat Sinks on U.S. and Black Sea Rains; Hogs Rally on Pork Demand
Beneficial rains across the U.S. Southern Plains and part of the Black Sea over the weekend put wheat futures in Europe and the U.S. on the defensive to start the week. That acted like a weight on the broader grain markets and helped pull futures lower to start the holiday-shortened week. All t...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.285/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.3/short ton, up $0.1 from yest...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming increasingly bearish corn and the soy complex while gradually easing short bets in the wheat market. The net effect of this dynamics, plus some mixed trade in livestock futures, was that funds’ total ag position (th...
Cattle on Feed
U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent from a year ago on May 1, 2025. Cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head and totaled 11.4 million. Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Solid Week
Pre-Holiday Trade There was higher volume trading soybeans today, but generally lower pre-holiday volume in other contracts. Despite an overall strong week, Friday brought lower prices except for soyoil, HRS, and Feeder Cattle. It was the fourth session higher this week for Minneapolis wheat. P...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 26 May is a U.S. holiday, the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 27 May. The WPI staff hopes everyone has a good weekend...
Cattle on Feed Report
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The total inventory of feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity is 11.4 million head, 98 percent of last year. This weekend commences the summer grilling season. Placements were 1.6 million head, 97 percent of last year, compare...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.595/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.425/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ financial outlook continues to improve with the recent gains in feeder cattle prices and overall weakness in feed costs so far in 2025. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015, but recent gains in expected profits sugg...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets remain essentially flat with cargo demand remaining “elusive”. Increased demand from China remains the key for markets going forward, but the Middle Kingdom has not seen any surge in bookings yet. The Baltic Dry indices were mixed this w...
Market Commentary: BBB, MAHA, Fundamentals and a Holiday
Corn, soybeans, soymeal, and cattle closed higher, while wheat, soyoil, and hogs dipped. The reasons are varied but pre-holiday trading tomorrow could see lower volume and some risk-off exits given the three-day break from trading. BBB Overnight trading and today’s trading session i...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 9-15, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 13,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 438,400 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.63/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.675/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $4.4 from...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.5 percent of last year with the range of estimates between an incredibly tight 98.3 percent and 98.8 percent of 1 May 2024. &nbs...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Drive Rallies
The CBOT was higher again on Wednesday with cool, wet weather for the U.S. Midwest causing planting delay concerns while hot, dry weather in the Black Sea motivated additional gains in global wheat markets. Of the weather concerns, conditions in the Black Sea and Europe seem to be the most cons...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to follow international labor rights and uphold high environmental standards. The EU already does this and is therefore not a concession. It offe...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4925/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.5 from...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by Memorial Day. The President told House Republicans today that they should not cut Medicaid, and they should not raise the cap on deducting st...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins improved for the first time in several weeks last week with gains in beef and pork prices offsetting gains in market animal values. Beef packer margins improved by $17/head last week but remain at their second-lowest levels in the past 15 years due to high fed cattle costs...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.1/short ton, down $0.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Fake is Out
Health and Human Services Secretary RFK, Jr. wants to stop demand for fake food colorings and Americans are slowing demand for fake food products. The demand for plant-based milks skyrocketed in percentage terms just a few years ago. Farm state politicians rushed to regulate the use of the word...
I Don’t Care; Rebalancing U.S. – Japan Trade
I Don’t Care That is likely President Trump’s attitude toward the WTO General Council’s castigation of his tariff war. Understandably, WTO members believe the complete flaunting of its rules by the U.S. undermines the entire organization. Both China and the EU want the U.S. na...
Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Debt
On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the U.S, credit worthiness and warned about rising levels of government debt and a widening budget deficit, cutting its U.S, credit rating by one notch to AA1. Moody’s was the last of the Big Three agencies to downgrade the U.S. from a triple-A rating.&...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that managed money traders are becoming split on their views for the grains and oilseeds complexes going forward. Funds were bearish grains as they sold a combined 120,000 contracts in corn and all three classes of wheat futures while buying 23,000 contracts ac...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
U.S. Agriculture Crisis
U.S. farmers’ export markets were challenging before the trade war, and they are not coming back. It is time for Plan B. The trade agreement still being negotiated with the United Kingdom will supposedly allow U.S. beef producers to fill up to 1.5 percent of the British market. Except the...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $4.5 f...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Freight Market Updates and WPI Freight App
Transportation and Freight Market Comments Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets continue to drift sideways or lower as they wait for improved cargo demand. This past week saw continued limited cargo demand and vessel owners are trying defend rates while buyers bring unmotivated inquiries. Th...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for May 2-8, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 58,600 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 16 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 371,400 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle Shortage Still Affecting Prices
Cattle supply still matters. USDA has announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. Economic fundamentals, such as tight cattle supplies, still play a role in supporting prices in the outly...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.455/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2475/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $1.4 fro...
Market Commentary: Tax Credit Hopes Bouy Soyoil; Wheat Gains on Weather; Cattle Turn Bearish
Weather and Congressional tax policy were at the forefront of futures traders’ minds on Wednesday and these two factors drove much of the day’s price action. The weather outlooks – favorable for the Corn Belt and dry for the Southern Plains, Europe, and Black Sea – creat...
Pesticide Assault; WTO Attacks U.S.; African Future
Pesticide Assault The Wall Street Journal reported that RFK, Jr.’s intent to ban all pesticides is running into opposition from other officials in the Trump Administration. His critics worry that removing pesticides will drive up food costs and know that inflation is a key consumer concer...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293.3/short ton, down $4.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Reverses Course; Soyoil Rallies on Possible Tax Extension
The CBOT was mixed trade Tuesday following the May WASDE and USDA’s first complete look at the U.S. and world 2025/26 balance sheets. With the WASDE’s numbers now incorporated into futures prices the trade began looking for “what’s next”, which for corn meant a bea...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
Bearish Wheat Report, Bullish Foundation
USDA’s May WASDE report was perhaps surprisingly bearish wheat. Futures hit yet more new record lows again today. For the U.S., USDA found higher yields running into lower demand. Globally, the agency sees increasing production even in countries like Russia and China where conditions have...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
WASDE Livestock
The May WASDE included this disclaimer: Effective May 11, 2025, the USDA announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports from Mexico due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. Forecasts in this report reflect this suspension and, in the abs...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened again last week as profits for both beef and pork packers declined. Beef packer margins were sharply lower and hit another record low at -$253/head thanks to record highs in fed cattle prices that outpaced gains in the beef markets. Pork packer margins turned negati...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7125/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.1/short ton, up $4 fro...
Market Commentary: Market Movers Galore Move Markets
A tariff truce, export inspections, WASDE and crop progress. Monday was action packed and the much-anticipated USDA May WASDE report did not disappoint. In general, it was mixed for corn, bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat. In fact, all three major wheat contracts registered new contra...
U.S. and China Agree to Cut Tariffs for 90 Days and Continue Negotiating
After weeks of Chinese denials that they were engaged in talks with the U.S on tariffs, the governments of the United States and the People’s Republic of China issued a joint statement this morning saying that they would rescind reciprocal tariffs for the coming 90 days. It included: ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report highlighted funds’ increasingly bearish view on ag commodities with managed money traders emerging as net sellers across the major grain and oilseeds futures. Funds’ net position across the soy complex, corn, wheat, and livestock futures fell 30 percent la...
Market Commentary: Good Weather, Unknown Trading Relations, Positioned for Monday
It was another day of trading in the green in the overnight for grains and the soy complex only to fail following through in the day session for wheat and soymeal. All major ags opened higher but soymeal quickly reversed, and all three wheats headed south about an hour into the session. Monday&...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5175/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, down $0...
Trade Deal with UK
Yesterday, President Trump announced from the Oval Office a trade deal “in principle” with the UK, the first of its kind following the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. While details are still lacking, according to the Administration, the agreement includes increased market acc...
Corn & Soybean Outlook: Riding Seasonal Patterns
With markets awaiting the May WASDE and USDA’s first comprehensive look at the 2025/26 crop balance sheets, many traders and analysts are looking for major fundamental developments that could influence the outlook. Regarding fundamental developments, the major grain and oilseed markets ha...
Market Commentary: Trade Deal, Retaliation List, Mixed Outcomes
Soybeans and soyoil held their gains from higher overnight closes, but the guidance of being higher to neutral overnight in corn, wheat and meal was rejected by day traders. Neither solid corn export sales, weather concerns in European and Chinese wheat, nor the prospect of trade agreement reli...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 25-May 1, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 69,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 493,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 10 perce...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.2925/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.45/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.7/short ton, down $0.3...
Livestock Roundup: North American Beef and Pork Forecast
The U.S. beef cow herd stabilized somewhat in 2024. The average culling rate was 10.5 percent, but with a beef cow herd of 28 million, the cull rate would have to be around 9 percent – or less – and heifer retention must increase in order to enter into an expansion phase. ...
Oilseed Highlights: Markets Turn Lower on Growing Supply Expectations
The Market Soybean futures have mostly traded sideways over the past two weeks with trade policy uncertainty, favorable weather for the U.S. and South America, and as-expected export volumes minimizing the need for a major move. Soyoil has pulled back sharply amid weakness in crude oil an...
Market Commentary: Funds Remain Bearish Ag Space Despite U.S.-China Trade Talks
The CBOT turned higher overnight after late Tuesday announcement of a China/U.S. meeting in Switzerland to discuss tariffs and reduce trade tensions. The first step in what is likely to be a prolonged process was welcomed by the industry as it at least shows a willingness from both parties to t...
It’s Complicated
This is a list of vignettes about the most consequential politician of our times. Donald Trump is not complicated if one just reads the rants of his opponents, of which there is a lengthy list. But as the journalist Matthew Continetti says, “Trump criticism is an oversaturated market.&rdq...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3925/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295/short ton, up $2 f...
Market Commentary: Corn Firms on Surprise Export Demand; Soy Complex Drifts Lower
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday following Monday’s drubbing across the grains and oilseeds markets. Tuesday saw continued selling pressure in the soy complex as funds turn increasingly bearish amid a favorable supply outlook for 2025. The grains sector saw a bit more support with wheat risi...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.555/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $293/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Dollar Exchange Rate Impacts on Trade
President Trump is using tariffs to rectify what he asserts is the unfair practices by other countries. He also accuses trading partners of currency manipulation. He is correct that currency exchange rates impact the competitiveness of U.S. exports. USDA’s Economic Research Service mainta...
Recession Watch
Real GDP dipped at a -0.3 percent annual rate in Q1, the first decline for any quarter since 2022. However, the main reason was that trade with other countries accounted for the largest drag on the economy for any quarter since at least 1947, as both consumers and companies loaded up on goods f...
Livestock Industry Margins
Meat packer margins worsened last week for both the beef and pork sector as higher animal costs exceeded any gains in meat values. Beef packer margins fell $43/head last week and scored a new 15-year low according to WPI’s models as fed cattle prices surged and outpaced a $5 gain in the c...
Market Commentary: Corn Leads Grains Lower on Fund Selling; Cattle Hit New Highs Again
Except for the cattle markets, the CBOT was sharply lower to start the week with trade policy, favorable weather, and weak technicals and large noncommercial short positions weighing on market sentiment. Cattle futures managed to rise to new all-time highs after last week’s record-breakin...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3125/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.455/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.5/short ton, down...
Trade Policy Contradictions
There are numerous trade policy contradictions, both between the U.S. and other countries, and within U.S. politics. Internationally, China worries about its import dependence for oil and food, investing heavily in alternative energy and domestic food production while encouraging livestock prod...
FDA Approves PRRS Resistant Pigs
After years of research and a lengthy regulatory approval process, Genus Pig Improvement Company (PIC) has received clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the gene edited PRRS-resistant pig (PRP) to be used in the U.S. food supply chain. Genus executives note this is a s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds continue to lean bearish the ag space with money managers either paring back longs or expanding shorts. The only exceptions to the bearish trend was the continued buying in the livestock complex and, in a bit of a switch from recent trends, across th...
Market Commentary: Mostly a Low Volume, Higher Close Day
It was the lowest trading volume day of the week for grains and soybeans. It started with soyoil the only major contract trading lower, but by mid-session it had been joined by old crop corn. New crop corn joined all three wheats and soybeans with a higher close. Hogs opened lower but then reve...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.58/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.9/short ton, up $2.6 from ye...
Trade Deals Being Worked on With Japan, China, and the EU
Japanese trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is in D.C. to talk trade. During a two-hour meeting with various officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Akazawa called for a review of recent U.S. tariffs, and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said today Japan will not sacrifice its national...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 18-24, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 72,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 491,700 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from t...
Market Commentary: Wheat Remains Weak, Corn and Soybeans Hold Their Own
It was modest volume trading grain and oilseeds today. Again, the lack of any new fundamental news has traders keeping their powder dry. USDA’s May WASDE is likely to boost estimates for corn and soybean exports, but that is still nearly two weeks away. Instead, today’s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7225/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5025/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $3.7...
Livestock Round Up: Broiler Outlook 2025
Broiler fundamentals continue to be favorable largely due to tight beef supplies and a more favorable value proposition versus the rest of the beef and pork markets. Prices have continued their gains since last summer, and with below historical average feed prices, processing margins have expan...
Oilseed Highlights: Crush Margins Improve
The Market Soybean crushing margins improved 5 percent this week as lower soybean costs offset a mild dip in soyoil values while soymeal prices were essentially unchanged. The board crush margin (that is, the margin implied by CBOT soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures) is up 6.5 percent f...
Market Commentary: Q1 GDP Slowdown Hits Equities, Cattle Markets; Grains Gain while Soybeans Slumber
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with grain and oilseed markets lacking much fresh fundamental news, other than weather updates and the first deliveries against May futures. The delivery data showed surprisingly heavy deliveries against soymeal, soyoil, and KCBT wheat and unexpectedly light deli...
Monumental Task; Rushed Deal; Polypessimistic
Monumental Task Luke Lindberg appeared before the Senate Agriculture Committee yesterday to be interviewed for the position of USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. Because of the higher levels of protectionism in agriculture around the world, it is a tough position e...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.3075/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.445/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Record Rally; Wheat Finds New Lows; Corn, Soyoil Collapse
The CBOT tried to rally overnight and posted some slight gains heading into the morning break, but thereafter the market quickly found selling pressure. Monday’s favorable Crop Progress and conditions report from USDA offered much of the justification for the selling pressure and helped s...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.255/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5275/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $2.3...
Trade War Positions
Canadians reacted with understandable revulsion to President Trump’s insults to their nation. In yesterday’s election, they were given two choices: elect Conservative Pierre Poilievre as prime minister who pledged to build a better and stronger nation, or choose Liberal Mark Carney...
Canadian Elections
Canadian voters went to the polls last night. They selected Mark Carney, the current Prime Minister, as the leader of the new government. The writ of election was issued just over a month ago, on 23 March, after Governor General Mary Simon accepted a request to dissolve parliament from Prime Mi...
Livestock Industry Margins
The pork industry saw production margins improve last week as strong pork demand lifted prices for both the pork cutout and physical hogs. Pork packer margins ticked slightly higher as gains in the pork market outpaced those in the hog market while higher lean hog futures and a slight dip in fe...
Market Commentary: Cattle Hit New Records while Wheat Hits New Lows; Planting in Focus
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with expectations of favorable planting progress in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report creating much of the pressure. Wheat was the big loser for the day with favorable weather in the major growing regions prompting a strong wave of selling f...
Quick Hits
Canadian Elections: Canada is going to the polls today. Earlier in the year, the Liberal Party was out of favor in Canada, but Trump’s talk of the 51st State has changed the dynamics of the election. Canada has six time zones, so the final results will be in late tonight. SCP Safegu...
Hard Hit with Benefits; American Consumerism; AI’s Trump Trade Solution
Hard Hit with Benefits U.S. agriculture will likely bear the brunt of retaliation by trading partners responding to Mr. Trump’s tariff war, but it could also be the largest beneficiary. Various capitals easily calculate that U.S. farmers strongly supported Trump for President, with farmin...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.31/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $295.9/short ton, down $2.6...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...
Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week
With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some input, and especially focus on the May 12 WASDE. It will be the first keen look at the balance sheets for MY 2025/26. It was the fifth...
North Dakota and Glyphosate
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years – whether it will remain the only domestic producer of glyphosate in the U.S. Anderson became CEO in 2023 and at the time promised to have th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.45/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5925/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $1.8 from...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseeds. Both opened lower this morning but climbed out of the hole to end higher. Wheat closed lower overnight and opened that way this mornin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 11-17, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 145,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 479,600 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.445/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, down $1.9 from...
Livestock Round Up: 2024 Slaughter Totals
The annual livestock slaughter data for 2024 was released Tuesday from USDA. Despite a reduced cattle supply, beef production totaled 27 billion pounds, up slightly from 2023 based on heavier weights, especially in the fall. For 2023, total pounds produced were also about 27 billion pounds, dow...
Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong
The Market The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in global trade war(s) offering support. CBOT soybean futures have pushed slightly higher with support from firmer soyoil values, and this has hel...
Market Commentary: Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Hits New Lows; More Trump Uncertainty
The CBOT was mixed again on Wednesday with grains seeing pressure from fund selling and a lack of significant news while soybeans and livestock traded higher. There are no serious weather issues in the U.S., South America, or Europe right now, which is taking ammunition away from grain bulls. T...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4025/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $298.6/short ton, down $0...
Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid
Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). U.S. EPA, the EU’s EFSA and other reputable government agencies have found this to not be true. But it is enough for Bayer to los...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop analysts’ upward revisions to the Brazilian and Argentine corn crops, which combined with a strong start to planting the U.S. 2025 crop...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.35/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.8 fr...
HPAI Waning This Spring
In 2022 and 2023, most HPAI cases affected producers during the spring and fall. The years 2024 and 2025 were different, however. The bulk of cases occurred during the winter months. Between December 2024 and February 2025, approximately 53.7 million egg layers, turkeys, and broilers were culle...
The Future of the U.S. – China Trade War
The Washington International Trade Association held a conference today entitled, Phase 2: The Art of the Deal with China. Experts included former USTR officials, the former head of the U.S.-China Business Council, a former Obama Administration trade official, and the illustrious Asia expert Wen...
Market Commentary: Ags Sink on Risk-Off Day Despite Weaker Dollar
The CBOT was higher overnight as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low, but the day session saw the major ag market slip lower and end in the red with pressure from macroeconomic markets increasing. In addition to sparking trade wars with nearly every major U.S. trading partner, U.S. Preside...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2...
Barriers are Good; Squeezed in the Trade War; Calculating the Impacts; Tax is a Tax
Barriers are Good The issue de jour is tariffs. Donald Trump is vilified by conventionalists for the self-induced wound of raising this single barrier to business. As a businessman, Trump sees a complex web of market barriers. Domestic regulations, domestic taxes, but also foreign tariffs (taxe...