Market Commentary: Bears in Control Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Rally as Packer Profits Surge
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean futures were lower to open the week, with funds still in control and in a selling mood. The upcoming WASDE report on Tuesday is also likely to feature larger corn and soybean stocks, which helped put grain futures on the defensive. Wheat futures we...
The Role of Currency Exchange Rates in Agricultural Trade
Key Takeaways: Currency exchange rates influence agricultural export competitiveness and producer profitability, even when underlying commodity prices remain unchanged. A weaker domestic currency allows agricultural exporters to receive more local currency for dollar-denominated sales, potenti...
A Closer, More Complex Look at Inflation
Although inflation has remained elevated since the post-COVID surge, it steadily moderated until the past year. More to the point, today’s inflation looks very different from 2022, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9 percent. During and after the pandemic, the M2 money supply...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.9375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Look to WASDE for Direction
What You Need to Know Today: Market attention is shifting toward Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report, with analysts anticipating a modest reduction in U.S. corn production estimates and an increase in soybean production. The report could provide fresh direction for grain markets as traders reass...
Global Soybean Crush Margin Forecasts
Key Takeaways: WPI’s forecasts call for physical U.S. soybean crushing margins to weaken over the next four months and average $4.44/bushel by late February, while CBOT futures margins should rise modestly to about $2.40/bushel. A key catalyst for this is the expectation that U.S...
“Lame Duck” and “Farm Bill”: Mutually Exclusive?
The election is over – for the most part. Counting is still underway in some states, including Alaska, where a ranked-choice voting system is in place for the Senate race, and Mississippi, as well as in some House districts. But as of now, Democrats have secured at least 54 Senate seats,...
Wheat Technology: Drought Resistance and Consumer Acceptance
Look away for a moment, and technology will surprise you in some way that you could not foresee or even imagine. If you are in the wheat business as a farmer, a miller, or a baker, you might know something about hybrid wheat, genetically engineered wheat, and gene-edited wheat. These products h...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money sold a net 235,000 agricultural futures contracts during the week, cutting the aggregate net long 52.8 percent to 210,000 contracts. Funds have reduced their aggregate agricultural net long by 423,000 contracts over the past two weeks, with this week’s selling exceeding the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.8825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Equity Market Selloff Weighs on Agricultural Commodities
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. equities declined sharply Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s post-election rally as investors continued selling technology stocks amid concerns that Democratic gains in the midterm elections could slow investment in artificial intelligence and data center d...
Livestock Roundup: Meat State Shake Up on Senate Agriculture Committee
The Senate Agriculture Committee will undergo significant changes in the new Congress beginning in January 2027, including several major shifts in meat-producing states. The Democratic Party’s tsunami swept Senator Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) out of office, and out of the seat once held by...
Milk Pricing with The Calf in the Ledger
What dairy breakeven looks like with and without the beef-on-dairy boom To put a dollar value on that question, this analysis removes the calf check from the USDA ledger and examines how many of the last five years would have reached breakeven without it. Key Takeaways: Milk and other income a...
Transportation Perspectives - 5 November
Key Takeaways: Fresh North Atlantic cargoes lifted Capesize hire even as iron ore voyage assessments eased, giving owners the most leverage on transatlantic business. Australian coal helped turn Panamax rates higher, but a sustained Atlantic recovery will require more grain bookings from the A...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.0225/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: The Votes Are In. The Market’s Still Deciding.
The US election is over, but the market’s debate is just beginning. A shift in Washington’s balance of power is changing policy expectations, while developments involving Iran and an early decline in the dollar are adding to the uncertainty. Now traders must decide how much of that...
Blue Wave Crashes on Ag Policy
Key Takeaways: The 2026 U.S. Midterm elections surprised many pundits and have created significant changes in how agriculture and major agricultural production states will be represented in Congress. Details on how candidates expect to address agricultural issues are still limited, and no offi...
Japan’s Agricultural Import Dependence Supports Consistent Demand
Key Takeaways: Japan’s mountainous geography and limited farmland constrain domestic agricultural production, while its highly developed economy and substantial purchasing power make it one of the world’s most important agricultural import markets. Japan’s calorie-based food...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Ags Turn Red as Election Map Blinks Blue
What You Need to Know Today: Corn broke sharply lower after overnight headlines that U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials would meet for peace talks on 10 and 11 November. Mexico made its second large purchase of U.S. corn in as many days, bringing total purchases this week to just over 2 MM...
EUDR Compliance Could Shift Global Soymeal Trade Flows
Key Takeaways: The EU's new deforestation regulations, taking effect 30 December 2026, could alter global soymeal trade through stricter traceability requirements and higher compliance costs. Brazil's complex supply chains are likely to complicate compliance with the new regulations, potential...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $89/head last week, up $53 from the prior week as declining fed cattle prices more than offset weaker beef cutout values. Fed cattle prices fell $3.35/cwt to $224/cwt while the Choice cutout declined $2.49/cwt to $366/cwt, improving packer profits. Despite the re...
Port Strike Averted, but New Deadline Looming and Pork Market Precarious
The brewing West Coast port strike involving about 250 maritime watchmen, or approximately 2 percent of port employees, has been postponed until 5 November after the workers agreed to extend the strike deadline. The watchmen control and inspect truck and employee access at terminal gates. A sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.065/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.6/short ton, down $5 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Rebounds on Exports; Bears Control CBOT and CME Otherwise
What You Need to Know Today: Funds remain in control of the market, which means broadly bearish trade for the ag sector. Monday’s massive corn export sale to Mexico helped trigger some short covering and a bit of other end-user buying in corn, which could help stabilize the market. Wheat...
Election Eve Outlook: Crisis in Agricultural Policy and the Elections
With less than 24 hours until Election Day, control of the Senate remains a wild card. Republicans and Democrats alike say they are poised to win control of the chamber in the new Congress that starts in January 2027. The House of Representatives is more of a lost cause for continued Republican...
Pork Market Weakness Extends Beyond Seasonal Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. hog and pork prices have declined sharply, with December lean hog futures ending October at $58.875/cwt and the pork cutout reaching its lowest level since January 2021. Seasonal increases in hog slaughter and pork production have contributed to price weakness, although the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the sixth straight week, liquidating a net 189,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 29.8 percent to 444,000 contracts. The selling accelerated for the third consecutive we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Cattle Futures Slide as Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
Fed Holds Steady Prior to Election as GDP and Inflation Pressures Grow
As predicted, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the last meeting before the midterm elections, likely in part because of the election (see WPI 19 October and 22 September). The decision comes at the tail end of a midterm election cycle that has been marked by the two parties campaigning...
How Tariffs Are Affecting U.S. Food and Agricultural Imports
Key Takeaways: The tariff burden rose sharply in 2025 and 2026: the effective rate on imports in HTS Chapters 1–24 increased from 1.53 percent in 2024 to 6.11 percent in 2025, before averaging 5.68 percent in January–August 2026. Headline rates tell only part of the story: exemptio...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: More Tricks Than Treats
Markets are getting into the Halloween spirit, handing out more tricks than treats. There has been some encouraging news, but it hasn’t been enough to slow the broader slide. Now buyers need to show up with something other than another “Charlie Brown” rock for the bag. Somethi...
Livestock Roundup: New AMS Reports and NWS Update
The new USDA report from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) for Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the newly dubbed South Central Daily Direct Slaughter Cattle Report Summary, showed that negotiated cash trade in the region as of Tuesday was mostly inactive, with only ligh...
Leading Corn Exporters Serve Different Markets
Key Takeaways: The United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine dominate global corn exports, with geography, trade relationships, and seasonal production patterns shaping their competitive advantages. U.S. corn exports reached a record 87.1 MMT in 2025/26, with Mexico, Japan, South Korea, an...
The Wrong Side of the Ledger: Calf Prices Carried Dairy Since 2021, and Now They Are Straining the Herd
Key Takeaways: Milk alone has not covered the full economic cost in any year since 2021: milk revenue fell short by $4.50, $2.15, $6.50, $1.27 and $2.34 per hundredweight in 2021 through 2025. Calf and cattle prices decided whether dairies cleared cost: cattle and other income lifted total rev...
Transportation Perspectives - 29 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets are mixed with Capesize rates seeing solid gains while Panamax values slipped on a growing tonnage list. Supramax and Handysize vessels were stronger, though all sectors remain vulnerable to the seasonal dip in rates through Q4 and into Q1. Falling water l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.38/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.7/short ton, up $1.1 from...
Market Commentary: Cattle and Hog Markets Face Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.0 percent Wednesday, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" but adopted a more patient approa...
U.S. Soymeal Supply and Demand Outlook
Key Takeaways: Expected growth in U.S. soybean crushing capacity and output, driven by biofuel demand, will increase domestic soymeal supplies, with production growth significantly outpacing demand. WPI forecasts soymeal production increasing from 65.8 million short tons in 2026/27 to 70.5 mil...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 28 October)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2925/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $334.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Grains Remain Under Pressure as New Mexico Cattle Border Reopens
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
Inaugural New Fed Cattle Report Was a Bust
Yesterday, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released a new report of negotiated cash purchases of cattle under the mandatory price report. The report included Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. The goal of the report was to solve the confidentiality issues e...
A Long-Run View of U.S. Soybean Crushing
Key Takeaways: U.S. soybean crushing began in 1911 and saw its most rapid expansion during the 1930s amid the broader agricultural and technology revolutions of the time. After peaking in the early 2000s, the soybean crushing industry went through a downturn as poor crush margins forced...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins plunged $105/head last week to $36/head as higher cattle prices combined with declining wholesale beef values to sharply compress packer profits. Fed cattle prices rose nearly $3/cwt to $227/cwt while the Choice cutout fell $4.75/cwt to $368/cwt. Margins have deteriorated $1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.55/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4125/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.2/short ton, down $5.9 f...
Market Commentary: Brazil’s Election Results Have Broader Market Implications
What You Need to Know Today: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection on Sunday, defeating right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro despite trailing in the first round of voting. The surprise victory triggered a sharp selloff in Brazilian financial market...
Congressional Flip May Hinge on Agriculture
The 2026 midterm elections are a week from tomorrow, but early voting has been taking place for weeks. At stake is control of Congress, including the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are contested, and the Senate, where approximately one-third of the seats are up for election. Farm...
2027 Acreage Outlook: Oilseed Expansion Continues
Key Takeaways: Total U.S. crop acres (excluding hay) are forecast to expand fractionally this year due to greater oilseed crop and winter wheat plantings. One of the key drivers of this year’s crop outlook is input costs, and crops with a lower cost profile have an advantage in producers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Bearish Week on a Mixed Note; Bullish COF and Cold Storage Data
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices extended their rally today, supported by several developments, including escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and growing concerns about supply disruptions. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to remove 50 perc...
The Ag Trade Balance: Gradually and Suddenly
Key Takeaways: The agricultural trade surplus has become a sizable deficit: the balance swung from a $40.1 billion surplus in 2011 to a $40.7 billion deficit in 2025. Imports kept growing while exports lost momentum: between 2020 and 2025, agricultural imports increased 45 percent, compa...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record-Low Placements and Marketings Extend Their Streaks
USDA released its October Cattle on Feed report Friday, showing 11.4 million cattle in feedlots with capacity for 1,000 head or more, slightly below last year. September placements were the lowest for the month since records began in 1996, marking the third consecutive month of placements sett...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
Total Red Meat & Poultry September 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 1.97 billion pounds, down 1.4 percent from August despite typically increasing 0.8 percent during the month, and were 1.5 percent below September 2025 levels. The decline pushed total inventories to a new five...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fifth straight week, selling a net 159,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 20.1 percent to 633,000 contracts. Corn again accounted for roughly half the weekly selling...
Cattle on Feed - Oct 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed for the slaughter totaled 11.4 million head on October 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 1.78 million head - 12 percent below 2025. Marketings of cattle during September totaled 1.52 million head - 7 percent below 2025. Marketings were the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.25/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.565/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $346.1/short ton, down $1.2 from...
Market Commentary: Strong Export Sales Support Grains; Screwworm Concerns Grow
What You Need to Know Today: New World screwworm is back in the headlines after new cases were found in a hunter-harvested elk in Texas and a beef cow in New Mexico. The detection in wildlife could further complicate containment efforts, as implementing effective biosecurity measures is consid...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview, Fed Cattle Report Changes, Feedlot Closures
Cattle on Feed Expectations USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report that will show cattle inventory statistics as of 1 October will be released tomorrow, 23 October. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100.3 percent of last year, which imp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.53/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.3/short ton, down $1 f...
Transportation Perspectives - 22 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets remain mixed with Capesize rates turning around from their recent weakness and posting solid gains on improved Chinese demand. Panamax vessels, on the other hand, saw rates decline amid greater tonnage availability in the South Atlantic and falling U.S. Gu...
Dairy: From Powder to Protein
Key Takeaways: Demand and capacity decide where milk growth lands. Italian cheese is up 4.2 percent in 2026, and milk output is growing fastest in Kansas, South Dakota and Texas, where the new plants are located. Price spreads decide where the marginal milk goes. The Class IV premium over Clas...
Market Commentary: At the Crossroads of Pressure and Possibility
Markets are caught between reasons to keep selling and reasons to take another look. Fund liquidation and renewed peace talks are pressuring grains, while fresh export business and some diesel relief offer encouragement. Corn recovered nearly 10 cents from its low to finish higher, while soybea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Trump's $8 Billion Farm Aid Package Raises Economic and Political Questions
Key Takeaways: President Trump announced $8 billion in additional agricultural assistance through the Harvest Fuel Relief Program, as USDA projects farm fuel and oil expenses will increase 28.8 percent in 2026. The package follows $12 billion in earlier relief, while government farm payments w...
A Future for Onion Futures?
Key Takeaways: A student group from the University of Chicago is protesting to bring back onion futures trading. Trading in onion futures was banned in 1958 following a spectacular bout of market manipulation that resulted in a corner of the physical market. The ban on onion futures led t...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to $141/head last week, down $55 from the prior week as fed cattle prices strengthened while the Choice cutout remained nearly unchanged. The cutout held near $373/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed $4/cwt to $224/cwt, narrowing processor profits. Despite the d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Alberta Votes Overwhelmingly to Stay with Canada
Yesterday, Alberta held a referendum on whether to begin the process toward independence from Canada. With more than one million votes counted as of early Tuesday morning, around 77 percent supported remaining in Canada, and 23 percent voted to start the process of separation, according to unof...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 19 October)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
CPI and PPI Reports: Supply-Side Inflation Pressure
Last week, September inflation reports showed that the Producer Price Index rose 1.3 percent, far ahead of the 0.6 percent consensus expectation, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6 percent, in line with expectations. However, September also marked the 66th consecutive month that both...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
First Look at Realized 2026 Cow-Calf Profits
Key Takeaways: With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer...
The Dynamics of the HPAI Vaccine Plan
As fall begins, wild migratory birds are starting their seasonal migration. That has the industry and government officials worried about the potential spread, again, of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Some members of Congress have called for the United States to be prepared for a pote...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Retail Sales Implications for Consumers and Stocks
Key Takeaways: Consumer spending is a key driver of the U.S. economy, and the latest retail sales data indicate that spending remains robust despite inflation. In September, total retail and food service sales rose more than 6 percent year-over-year, with food service spending up 7 percent and...
Livestock Round Up
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
The Tale of Two Dairies under FMMO
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
Transportation Perspectives - 15 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets remain mixed with Capesize vessels seeing continued pressure from weaker demand while fixtures and rate strength gradually increases towards the smaller vessel classes. Tanker markets are pulling back from their recent highs as tonnage moves out of the Mid...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
EPA Proposes Two Options for Reallocation of SRE RINs
Key Takeaways: The EPA has proposed reallocating 770 million RINs associated with Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), either splitting the volume equally between 2026 and 2027 or assigning the full amount to 2027. The agency granted exemptions covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025, substantially e...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Crude Shipments Out of the Gulf Lower than Thought, Diesel Import Plan Challenged
Tanker-tracking data shows a smaller recovery in oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz than previously thought. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking by video to an international energy conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, said that oil moving through the strait was back to 80 to 90 percent...
Premium Vegetable Oils Fill a Niche in the Market
Key Takeaways: While soybean, palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils dominate global vegetable oil markets, premium oils such as olive, avocado, coconut, and sesame command substantially higher prices due to their distinctive flavors, nutritional characteristics, and specialized culinary uses.. Ol...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $190/head last week, down $32 from the prior week as the Choice cutout weakened while fed cattle prices remained steady. The cutout fell $2.56/cwt to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $220/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after several weeks of improvement...
The Decline of U.S. Wheat Export Dominance
Key Takeaways: The United States has steadily lost global wheat export market share since the 1970s, falling from the world's leading exporter to a projected fifth place in 2026/27. The rapid expansion of Black Sea wheat exports, driven by improved productivity and export infrastructure, has r...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
WASDE Soybeans - October 2026
USDA’s October WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. soybeans increased ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 315 million. Prices are unchanged for 2026/27. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.00 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $340 per short ton and...
WASDE Corn - October 2026
USDA’s October WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn increased ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.70. 2026/27 global corn ending stocks are up 8.3 million tons to 280.4 million tons - pri...
WASDE Wheat - October 2026
USDA’s October WASDE outlook for 2026/27 total U.S. wheat is increased ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million – but USDA notes that this is still 20 percent below last year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.30 per bushel. 2026/27 glob...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7975/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.92/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $8 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Yield Above Expectations Shakes Outlook, Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
A Dubious Diesel Deal
Key Takeaways: On Friday afternoon, President Trump announced that Russia will “immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel” to the United States. The deal, typical of this administration, is light on details but promises an additional 500,000 tons in November and 1 m...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts slightly while forecasting a slight increase in broiler production. Beef is now projected at 24.802 billion pounds, 75 million pounds less than in September. Cow slaughter is expected to be up; however, this will be offset by lower ste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Ahead of WASDE; Pork Cutout Hits Multi-Year Low
What You Need to Know Today: Attention is turning toward Friday's USDA WASDE report, with traders looking for updated corn and soybean production estimates and revisions to domestic and global supply-and-demand balances. The report could help establish a clearer direction for grain price...
Beef and Cattle Prices: Expect Another Bullish Year in 2027
Key Takeaways: U.S. beef production is forecast to fall 10.5 percent in 2026 and remain unchanged in 2027, despite a mild recovery in fed cattle slaughter. Record beef imports will help offset shrinking domestic production, with imports forecast to increase 14.0 percent in 2026 and anoth...
Livestock Round Up: Beef Lean Trim Imports Fail to Bring Consumer Relief
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e. lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the ma...
Tariffs and the American Sheep, Goat, and Wool Industries
Key Takeaways: Lamb and goat tariffs protect market share, not prices. The flock is too small to respond quickly, and the burden depends on origin: 12.5 percent on Australia and New Zealand, reportedly 37.5 percent plus the base rate on China. Wool is most exposed via the export side. The U.S...
Transportation Perspectives - 8 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets are mixed this week with the Capesize sector falling on the demand slump stemming from China’s Golden Week holiday while Panamax and smaller vessel class rates remain firm. The Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Isaias, intensi...
Market Commentary: Yesterday’s Momentum, Today’s Test
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
WPI’s October WASDE Outlook
Key Takeaways: Corn prices will see support in 2026/27 and likely average $5.11/bushel for farm-gate values across the marketing year. Support for corn values comes from an 8 percent year-over-year reduction in supplies that is only partially offset by a 2 percent reduction in total use. Soybe...
Global Vegetable Oil Markets Face Mixed Signals
Key Takeaways: Global vegetable oil production continues to expand, but the major oils are being driven by very different supply, demand, and trade dynamics. Palm oil faces heavy near-term supply pressure from rising Malaysian inventories, while Indonesia’s B50 mandate and El Niño...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.865/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.8/short ton, up $11 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Executive Order and G7 Actions on Diesel Fuel
In a letter last week to President Trump, Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), wrote that diesel prices are squeezing farmers’ margins. As Duvall wrote: Higher diesel expenses are hitting farmers at one of the most fuel-intensive times of the year —...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $222/head last week, up $26 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices slipped lower. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle fell to $220/cwt, strengthening packer returns. Margins remain exceptionally strong compared with...
Understanding the Difference Between Export Inspections and Export Sales
Key Takeaways: Export sales measure new commitments for future delivery, while export inspections provide a timelier gauge of grain that is physically moving through the export system. Sales and inspections often diverge from week to week because they measure different stages of the export pro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.1/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Global Grain Demand Grows; Brazil Election, Currency Swing Boosts Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: The Brazilian real surged to start the week after a surprise election result in which right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election. The swing in the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) exchange rate caused soybeans to jump sharply higher in earl...
Harvest Pressure: Why Grain Prices Often Weaken at Harvest
Key Takeaways: Harvest pressure is fundamentally a timing issue: supply arrives much faster than demand can adjust, creating temporary weakness that can occur across crops and regions. The intensity of that pressure depends less on crop size alone than on how quickly grain moves into the syste...
Hog Industry Margins
Pork packer margins closed out September as positive, marking an improvement in a challenging 2026. According to Sterling Marketing, for the week ending 26 September, pork packer margins were $6.98 per head, which is up from a loss of $0.13 the previous week, more than double the margin of $3.9...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Weighs on Grains, Diesel Could See Much-Needed Relief
What You Need to Know Today: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement initially pushed crude oil lower on Friday, although it later recovered a portion o...
R-CALF Proposes Changes to Cattle Contracts
In a recent social media post, R-CALF unveiled its latest cattle market plan: “contracts that bind producers before establishing a base price, then tie that price to future negotiated cash transactions, should be prohibited.” That proposal aligns with recent legislation by Represent...
The Future of Cattle Pricing
Key Takeaways: The recent pearl-clutching from parts of the beef industry regarding the loss of the daily Kansas fed cattle negotiated trade pricing report is overwrought and ignores the fact that the direction was readily apparent. The shift away from negotiated trade has been well docu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.84/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $353.3/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Drier Weather Could Accelerate Soybean Harvest
What You Need to Know Today: A drier early-October forecast should help harvest accelerate across areas of the western Corn Belt that have been running behind, adding pressure to soybeans and soymeal today as concerns over near-term physical tightness begin to ease. Markets are still digesting...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 September last week. The total inventory of hogs and pigs in the U.S. was 74.3 million head, reflecting a 1 percent decrease from the previous year but a 1.6 percent increase from June 2026, when the June inventory was at its lowest since 2...
Transportation Perspectives - 1 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets are mixed this week with the Capesize sector seeing a sharp correction from its recent rally. Smaller vessel classes are steady/firmer but the Chinese Golden Week Holiday is pressuring near-term rates. Dry bulk freight did not receive the bullish boost it...
Where the Milk Goes Determines the Value
August 2026 milk production, the four-class pricing system, and the 2025 Federal Milk Marketing Order reforms Key Takeaways: U.S. milk production is growing because the herd is larger, not because cows are producing more milk. August output increased 1.7 percent, even as production per cow dec...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0075/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.93/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Quarter & Month End Reality Checks
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Higher Corn Stocks Contrast with Tighter Soybean Supplies
Key Takeaways: 1 September corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels, 171 million above expectations and 544 million above last year, providing additional cushion for the 2026/27 balance sheet and potentially adding near-term pressure to prices. June-August corn disappearance increased just 10...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359/short ton, down $0.4 from y...
Market Commentary: Wet Midwest Weather, Grain Stocks Positioning Support CBOT
What You Need to Know Today: CBOT markets pared Monday’s sharp losses as traders booked short profits and adjusted positions ahead of the Grain Stocks report that USDA will release Wednesday afternoon. The 7-day QPF forecast from NOAA now shows heavy rain across the central and western C...
Energy Markets and the Slowly Disappearing Diesel Export Ban Proposal
There was encouraging news over the weekend: the White House may reject the misguided idea on Capitol Hill to ban U.S. diesel exports. What WPI has noted previously was perhaps best put by a Department of Energy report of 2022, under the Biden administration: Petroleum liquids markets are globa...
How Comparative Advantage Shapes Global Trade
Key Takeaways: Comparative advantage encourages countries to specialize in goods they can produce at a lower opportunity cost and rely on trade for others. Differences in climate, land, infrastructure, and technology help determine where agricultural commodities can be produced most efficientl...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $196/head last week, up $20 from the prior week as fed cattle prices declined faster than the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $375/cwt while fed cattle fell to $221/cwt, modestly widening packer spreads. Margins remain well above year-ago levels as lower cattl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Everything but Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
Policy Quick Hits: Mexico, Ad Hoc Farm Assistance, Ultra-Processed Foods
Mexico Trade Deal The Trump Administration is looking for a win before the November midterm elections, now just five weeks away, especially as trade relations with Canada worsen and there is now a truce with China. The U.S. has made it clear to Mexican officials that it wants a deal with Mexico...
U.S.-China Deal Delivers Tariff Relief, but Little for Soybeans
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Cow-Calf Market Outlook
The heat of summer is now transitioning into more moderate temperatures, and the next two months have the busiest marketing periods of the year for replacement cattle. Weather always influences the replacement cattle market, and the primary grain belt in the Southern Plains, where many cattle a...
Diesel Fuel Costs, One Acre at a Time
Key Takeaways: Diesel accounts for about 64 percent of U.S. farm fuel spending. For farmers, the pressing question is what a higher price adds to each field operation. Iowa farm diesel averaged $5.50/gallon in September, compared with the $2.89/gallon Iowa State assumed for its February machin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
August 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 2.01 billion pounds, down 0.5 percent from July versus the typical 0.3 percent monthly decline, but 0.9 percent above August 2025 levels. Total red meat stocks rose 0.8 percent for the month despite typically declining 0.1 percent and were 8...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Ahead of WASDE; Cattle Futures Rally as Packer Profits Surge
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybean futures were lower to open the week, with funds still in control and in a selling mood. The upcoming WASDE report on Tuesday is also likely to feature larger corn and soybean stocks, which helped put grain futures on the defensive. Wheat futures we...
The Role of Currency Exchange Rates in Agricultural Trade
Key Takeaways: Currency exchange rates influence agricultural export competitiveness and producer profitability, even when underlying commodity prices remain unchanged. A weaker domestic currency allows agricultural exporters to receive more local currency for dollar-denominated sales, potenti...
A Closer, More Complex Look at Inflation
Although inflation has remained elevated since the post-COVID surge, it steadily moderated until the past year. More to the point, today’s inflation looks very different from 2022, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9 percent. During and after the pandemic, the M2 money supply...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.9375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $2 from y...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Look to WASDE for Direction
What You Need to Know Today: Market attention is shifting toward Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report, with analysts anticipating a modest reduction in U.S. corn production estimates and an increase in soybean production. The report could provide fresh direction for grain markets as traders reass...
Global Soybean Crush Margin Forecasts
Key Takeaways: WPI’s forecasts call for physical U.S. soybean crushing margins to weaken over the next four months and average $4.44/bushel by late February, while CBOT futures margins should rise modestly to about $2.40/bushel. A key catalyst for this is the expectation that U.S...
“Lame Duck” and “Farm Bill”: Mutually Exclusive?
The election is over – for the most part. Counting is still underway in some states, including Alaska, where a ranked-choice voting system is in place for the Senate race, and Mississippi, as well as in some House districts. But as of now, Democrats have secured at least 54 Senate seats,...
Wheat Technology: Drought Resistance and Consumer Acceptance
Look away for a moment, and technology will surprise you in some way that you could not foresee or even imagine. If you are in the wheat business as a farmer, a miller, or a baker, you might know something about hybrid wheat, genetically engineered wheat, and gene-edited wheat. These products h...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money sold a net 235,000 agricultural futures contracts during the week, cutting the aggregate net long 52.8 percent to 210,000 contracts. Funds have reduced their aggregate agricultural net long by 423,000 contracts over the past two weeks, with this week’s selling exceeding the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $11.8825/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $317.2/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Equity Market Selloff Weighs on Agricultural Commodities
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. equities declined sharply Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s post-election rally as investors continued selling technology stocks amid concerns that Democratic gains in the midterm elections could slow investment in artificial intelligence and data center d...
Livestock Roundup: Meat State Shake Up on Senate Agriculture Committee
The Senate Agriculture Committee will undergo significant changes in the new Congress beginning in January 2027, including several major shifts in meat-producing states. The Democratic Party’s tsunami swept Senator Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) out of office, and out of the seat once held by...
Milk Pricing with The Calf in the Ledger
What dairy breakeven looks like with and without the beef-on-dairy boom To put a dollar value on that question, this analysis removes the calf check from the USDA ledger and examines how many of the last five years would have reached breakeven without it. Key Takeaways: Milk and other income a...
Transportation Perspectives - 5 November
Key Takeaways: Fresh North Atlantic cargoes lifted Capesize hire even as iron ore voyage assessments eased, giving owners the most leverage on transatlantic business. Australian coal helped turn Panamax rates higher, but a sustained Atlantic recovery will require more grain bookings from the A...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.0225/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: The Votes Are In. The Market’s Still Deciding.
The US election is over, but the market’s debate is just beginning. A shift in Washington’s balance of power is changing policy expectations, while developments involving Iran and an early decline in the dollar are adding to the uncertainty. Now traders must decide how much of that...
Blue Wave Crashes on Ag Policy
Key Takeaways: The 2026 U.S. Midterm elections surprised many pundits and have created significant changes in how agriculture and major agricultural production states will be represented in Congress. Details on how candidates expect to address agricultural issues are still limited, and no offi...
Japan’s Agricultural Import Dependence Supports Consistent Demand
Key Takeaways: Japan’s mountainous geography and limited farmland constrain domestic agricultural production, while its highly developed economy and substantial purchasing power make it one of the world’s most important agricultural import markets. Japan’s calorie-based food...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.9975/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.14/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $318/short ton, down $1...
Market Commentary: Ags Turn Red as Election Map Blinks Blue
What You Need to Know Today: Corn broke sharply lower after overnight headlines that U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials would meet for peace talks on 10 and 11 November. Mexico made its second large purchase of U.S. corn in as many days, bringing total purchases this week to just over 2 MM...
EUDR Compliance Could Shift Global Soymeal Trade Flows
Key Takeaways: The EU's new deforestation regulations, taking effect 30 December 2026, could alter global soymeal trade through stricter traceability requirements and higher compliance costs. Brazil's complex supply chains are likely to complicate compliance with the new regulations, potential...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $89/head last week, up $53 from the prior week as declining fed cattle prices more than offset weaker beef cutout values. Fed cattle prices fell $3.35/cwt to $224/cwt while the Choice cutout declined $2.49/cwt to $366/cwt, improving packer profits. Despite the re...
Port Strike Averted, but New Deadline Looming and Pork Market Precarious
The brewing West Coast port strike involving about 250 maritime watchmen, or approximately 2 percent of port employees, has been postponed until 5 November after the workers agreed to extend the strike deadline. The watchmen control and inspect truck and employee access at terminal gates. A sho...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4825/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.065/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.1675/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $319.6/short ton, down $5 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Rebounds on Exports; Bears Control CBOT and CME Otherwise
What You Need to Know Today: Funds remain in control of the market, which means broadly bearish trade for the ag sector. Monday’s massive corn export sale to Mexico helped trigger some short covering and a bit of other end-user buying in corn, which could help stabilize the market. Wheat...
Election Eve Outlook: Crisis in Agricultural Policy and the Elections
With less than 24 hours until Election Day, control of the Senate remains a wild card. Republicans and Democrats alike say they are poised to win control of the chamber in the new Congress that starts in January 2027. The House of Representatives is more of a lost cause for continued Republican...
Pork Market Weakness Extends Beyond Seasonal Pressures
Key Takeaways: U.S. hog and pork prices have declined sharply, with December lean hog futures ending October at $58.875/cwt and the pork cutout reaching its lowest level since January 2021. Seasonal increases in hog slaughter and pork production have contributed to price weakness, although the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the sixth straight week, liquidating a net 189,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 29.8 percent to 444,000 contracts. The selling accelerated for the third consecutive we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3425/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $324.6/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Cattle Futures Slide as Grain Markets Remain Under Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
Fed Holds Steady Prior to Election as GDP and Inflation Pressures Grow
As predicted, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the last meeting before the midterm elections, likely in part because of the election (see WPI 19 October and 22 September). The decision comes at the tail end of a midterm election cycle that has been marked by the two parties campaigning...
How Tariffs Are Affecting U.S. Food and Agricultural Imports
Key Takeaways: The tariff burden rose sharply in 2025 and 2026: the effective rate on imports in HTS Chapters 1–24 increased from 1.53 percent in 2024 to 6.11 percent in 2025, before averaging 5.68 percent in January–August 2026. Headline rates tell only part of the story: exemptio...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.3475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $329.3/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: More Tricks Than Treats
Markets are getting into the Halloween spirit, handing out more tricks than treats. There has been some encouraging news, but it hasn’t been enough to slow the broader slide. Now buyers need to show up with something other than another “Charlie Brown” rock for the bag. Somethi...
Livestock Roundup: New AMS Reports and NWS Update
The new USDA report from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) for Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, the newly dubbed South Central Daily Direct Slaughter Cattle Report Summary, showed that negotiated cash trade in the region as of Tuesday was mostly inactive, with only ligh...
Leading Corn Exporters Serve Different Markets
Key Takeaways: The United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine dominate global corn exports, with geography, trade relationships, and seasonal production patterns shaping their competitive advantages. U.S. corn exports reached a record 87.1 MMT in 2025/26, with Mexico, Japan, South Korea, an...
The Wrong Side of the Ledger: Calf Prices Carried Dairy Since 2021, and Now They Are Straining the Herd
Key Takeaways: Milk alone has not covered the full economic cost in any year since 2021: milk revenue fell short by $4.50, $2.15, $6.50, $1.27 and $2.34 per hundredweight in 2021 through 2025. Calf and cattle prices decided whether dairies cleared cost: cattle and other income lifted total rev...
Transportation Perspectives - 29 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets are mixed with Capesize rates seeing solid gains while Panamax values slipped on a growing tonnage list. Supramax and Handysize vessels were stronger, though all sectors remain vulnerable to the seasonal dip in rates through Q4 and into Q1. Falling water l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 27 Soybeans closed at $12.38/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $335.7/short ton, up $1.1 from...
Market Commentary: Cattle and Hog Markets Face Pressure
What You Need to Know Today: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75 to 4.0 percent Wednesday, with two officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The Fed upgraded its assessment of economic growth from "solid" to "strong" but adopted a more patient approa...
U.S. Soymeal Supply and Demand Outlook
Key Takeaways: Expected growth in U.S. soybean crushing capacity and output, driven by biofuel demand, will increase domestic soymeal supplies, with production growth significantly outpacing demand. WPI forecasts soymeal production increasing from 65.8 million short tons in 2026/27 to 70.5 mil...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 28 October)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.1025/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.2925/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $334.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Grains Remain Under Pressure as New Mexico Cattle Border Reopens
What You Need to Know Today: A third U.S. border crossing (Columbus, New Mexico) has reopened to Mexican cattle imports following nearly two years of restrictions related to New World screwworm. The reopening could gradually improve feeder cattle availability, although more than 60 confi...
Inaugural New Fed Cattle Report Was a Bust
Yesterday, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) released a new report of negotiated cash purchases of cattle under the mandatory price report. The report included Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. The goal of the report was to solve the confidentiality issues e...
A Long-Run View of U.S. Soybean Crushing
Key Takeaways: U.S. soybean crushing began in 1911 and saw its most rapid expansion during the 1930s amid the broader agricultural and technology revolutions of the time. After peaking in the early 2000s, the soybean crushing industry went through a downturn as poor crush margins forced...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins plunged $105/head last week to $36/head as higher cattle prices combined with declining wholesale beef values to sharply compress packer profits. Fed cattle prices rose nearly $3/cwt to $227/cwt while the Choice cutout fell $4.75/cwt to $368/cwt. Margins have deteriorated $1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.55/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4125/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.2/short ton, down $5.9 f...
Market Commentary: Brazil’s Election Results Have Broader Market Implications
What You Need to Know Today: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured reelection on Sunday, defeating right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro despite trailing in the first round of voting. The surprise victory triggered a sharp selloff in Brazilian financial market...
Congressional Flip May Hinge on Agriculture
The 2026 midterm elections are a week from tomorrow, but early voting has been taking place for weeks. At stake is control of Congress, including the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are contested, and the Senate, where approximately one-third of the seats are up for election. Farm...
2027 Acreage Outlook: Oilseed Expansion Continues
Key Takeaways: Total U.S. crop acres (excluding hay) are forecast to expand fractionally this year due to greater oilseed crop and winter wheat plantings. One of the key drivers of this year’s crop outlook is input costs, and crops with a lower cost profile have an advantage in producers...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Bearish Week on a Mixed Note; Bullish COF and Cold Storage Data
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices extended their rally today, supported by several developments, including escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and growing concerns about supply disruptions. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to remove 50 perc...
The Ag Trade Balance: Gradually and Suddenly
Key Takeaways: The agricultural trade surplus has become a sizable deficit: the balance swung from a $40.1 billion surplus in 2011 to a $40.7 billion deficit in 2025. Imports kept growing while exports lost momentum: between 2020 and 2025, agricultural imports increased 45 percent, compa...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record-Low Placements and Marketings Extend Their Streaks
USDA released its October Cattle on Feed report Friday, showing 11.4 million cattle in feedlots with capacity for 1,000 head or more, slightly below last year. September placements were the lowest for the month since records began in 1996, marking the third consecutive month of placements sett...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
Total Red Meat & Poultry September 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 1.97 billion pounds, down 1.4 percent from August despite typically increasing 0.8 percent during the month, and were 1.5 percent below September 2025 levels. The decline pushed total inventories to a new five...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fifth straight week, selling a net 159,000 contracts through Tuesday's reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 20.1 percent to 633,000 contracts. Corn again accounted for roughly half the weekly selling...
Cattle on Feed - Oct 2026
U.S. Cattle on Feed for the slaughter totaled 11.4 million head on October 1, 2026. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 1.78 million head - 12 percent below 2025. Marketings of cattle during September totaled 1.52 million head - 7 percent below 2025. Marketings were the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.56/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.25/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.565/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $346.1/short ton, down $1.2 from...
Market Commentary: Strong Export Sales Support Grains; Screwworm Concerns Grow
What You Need to Know Today: New World screwworm is back in the headlines after new cases were found in a hunter-harvested elk in Texas and a beef cow in New Mexico. The detection in wildlife could further complicate containment efforts, as implementing effective biosecurity measures is consid...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview, Fed Cattle Report Changes, Feedlot Closures
Cattle on Feed Expectations USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report that will show cattle inventory statistics as of 1 October will be released tomorrow, 23 October. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 100.3 percent of last year, which imp...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.53/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.3/short ton, down $1 f...
Transportation Perspectives - 22 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets remain mixed with Capesize rates turning around from their recent weakness and posting solid gains on improved Chinese demand. Panamax vessels, on the other hand, saw rates decline amid greater tonnage availability in the South Atlantic and falling U.S. Gu...
Dairy: From Powder to Protein
Key Takeaways: Demand and capacity decide where milk growth lands. Italian cheese is up 4.2 percent in 2026, and milk output is growing fastest in Kansas, South Dakota and Texas, where the new plants are located. Price spreads decide where the marginal milk goes. The Class IV premium over Clas...
Market Commentary: At the Crossroads of Pressure and Possibility
Markets are caught between reasons to keep selling and reasons to take another look. Fund liquidation and renewed peace talks are pressuring grains, while fresh export business and some diesel relief offer encouragement. Corn recovered nearly 10 cents from its low to finish higher, while soybea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Trump's $8 Billion Farm Aid Package Raises Economic and Political Questions
Key Takeaways: President Trump announced $8 billion in additional agricultural assistance through the Harvest Fuel Relief Program, as USDA projects farm fuel and oil expenses will increase 28.8 percent in 2026. The package follows $12 billion in earlier relief, while government farm payments w...
A Future for Onion Futures?
Key Takeaways: A student group from the University of Chicago is protesting to bring back onion futures trading. Trading in onion futures was banned in 1958 following a spectacular bout of market manipulation that resulted in a corner of the physical market. The ban on onion futures led t...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to $141/head last week, down $55 from the prior week as fed cattle prices strengthened while the Choice cutout remained nearly unchanged. The cutout held near $373/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed $4/cwt to $224/cwt, narrowing processor profits. Despite the d...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Alberta Votes Overwhelmingly to Stay with Canada
Yesterday, Alberta held a referendum on whether to begin the process toward independence from Canada. With more than one million votes counted as of early Tuesday morning, around 77 percent supported remaining in Canada, and 23 percent voted to start the process of separation, according to unof...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 19 October)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
CPI and PPI Reports: Supply-Side Inflation Pressure
Last week, September inflation reports showed that the Producer Price Index rose 1.3 percent, far ahead of the 0.6 percent consensus expectation, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6 percent, in line with expectations. However, September also marked the 66th consecutive month that both...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
First Look at Realized 2026 Cow-Calf Profits
Key Takeaways: With the fall calf run now upon us, producers are finally getting a glimpse of what their realized profits will be for 2026. Some producers may have already obtained a strong estimate of 2026 revenues, especially if calves were forward sold in, for example, the mid-summer...
The Dynamics of the HPAI Vaccine Plan
As fall begins, wild migratory birds are starting their seasonal migration. That has the industry and government officials worried about the potential spread, again, of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Some members of Congress have called for the United States to be prepared for a pote...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Retail Sales Implications for Consumers and Stocks
Key Takeaways: Consumer spending is a key driver of the U.S. economy, and the latest retail sales data indicate that spending remains robust despite inflation. In September, total retail and food service sales rose more than 6 percent year-over-year, with food service spending up 7 percent and...
Livestock Round Up
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
The Tale of Two Dairies under FMMO
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
Transportation Perspectives - 15 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets remain mixed with Capesize vessels seeing continued pressure from weaker demand while fixtures and rate strength gradually increases towards the smaller vessel classes. Tanker markets are pulling back from their recent highs as tonnage moves out of the Mid...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
EPA Proposes Two Options for Reallocation of SRE RINs
Key Takeaways: The EPA has proposed reallocating 770 million RINs associated with Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), either splitting the volume equally between 2026 and 2027 or assigning the full amount to 2027. The agency granted exemptions covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025, substantially e...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Crude Shipments Out of the Gulf Lower than Thought, Diesel Import Plan Challenged
Tanker-tracking data shows a smaller recovery in oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz than previously thought. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking by video to an international energy conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, said that oil moving through the strait was back to 80 to 90 percent...
Premium Vegetable Oils Fill a Niche in the Market
Key Takeaways: While soybean, palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils dominate global vegetable oil markets, premium oils such as olive, avocado, coconut, and sesame command substantially higher prices due to their distinctive flavors, nutritional characteristics, and specialized culinary uses.. Ol...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins declined to $190/head last week, down $32 from the prior week as the Choice cutout weakened while fed cattle prices remained steady. The cutout fell $2.56/cwt to $373/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $220/cwt, narrowing packer spreads after several weeks of improvement...
The Decline of U.S. Wheat Export Dominance
Key Takeaways: The United States has steadily lost global wheat export market share since the 1970s, falling from the world's leading exporter to a projected fifth place in 2026/27. The rapid expansion of Black Sea wheat exports, driven by improved productivity and export infrastructure, has r...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
WASDE Soybeans - October 2026
USDA’s October WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. soybeans increased ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 315 million. Prices are unchanged for 2026/27. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.00 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $340 per short ton and...
WASDE Corn - October 2026
USDA’s October WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. corn increased ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.70. 2026/27 global corn ending stocks are up 8.3 million tons to 280.4 million tons - pri...
WASDE Wheat - October 2026
USDA’s October WASDE outlook for 2026/27 total U.S. wheat is increased ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million – but USDA notes that this is still 20 percent below last year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.30 per bushel. 2026/27 glob...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7975/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.92/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $8 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Yield Above Expectations Shakes Outlook, Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
A Dubious Diesel Deal
Key Takeaways: On Friday afternoon, President Trump announced that Russia will “immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel” to the United States. The deal, typical of this administration, is light on details but promises an additional 500,000 tons in November and 1 m...
WASDE Livestock and Meat Price Forecasts
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts slightly while forecasting a slight increase in broiler production. Beef is now projected at 24.802 billion pounds, 75 million pounds less than in September. Cow slaughter is expected to be up; however, this will be offset by lower ste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Ahead of WASDE; Pork Cutout Hits Multi-Year Low
What You Need to Know Today: Attention is turning toward Friday's USDA WASDE report, with traders looking for updated corn and soybean production estimates and revisions to domestic and global supply-and-demand balances. The report could help establish a clearer direction for grain price...
Beef and Cattle Prices: Expect Another Bullish Year in 2027
Key Takeaways: U.S. beef production is forecast to fall 10.5 percent in 2026 and remain unchanged in 2027, despite a mild recovery in fed cattle slaughter. Record beef imports will help offset shrinking domestic production, with imports forecast to increase 14.0 percent in 2026 and anoth...
Livestock Round Up: Beef Lean Trim Imports Fail to Bring Consumer Relief
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e. lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the ma...
Tariffs and the American Sheep, Goat, and Wool Industries
Key Takeaways: Lamb and goat tariffs protect market share, not prices. The flock is too small to respond quickly, and the burden depends on origin: 12.5 percent on Australia and New Zealand, reportedly 37.5 percent plus the base rate on China. Wool is most exposed via the export side. The U.S...
Transportation Perspectives - 8 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets are mixed this week with the Capesize sector falling on the demand slump stemming from China’s Golden Week holiday while Panamax and smaller vessel class rates remain firm. The Atlantic’s first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Isaias, intensi...
Market Commentary: Yesterday’s Momentum, Today’s Test
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
WPI’s October WASDE Outlook
Key Takeaways: Corn prices will see support in 2026/27 and likely average $5.11/bushel for farm-gate values across the marketing year. Support for corn values comes from an 8 percent year-over-year reduction in supplies that is only partially offset by a 2 percent reduction in total use. Soybe...
Global Vegetable Oil Markets Face Mixed Signals
Key Takeaways: Global vegetable oil production continues to expand, but the major oils are being driven by very different supply, demand, and trade dynamics. Palm oil faces heavy near-term supply pressure from rising Malaysian inventories, while Indonesia’s B50 mandate and El Niño...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.865/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.8/short ton, up $11 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Executive Order and G7 Actions on Diesel Fuel
In a letter last week to President Trump, Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), wrote that diesel prices are squeezing farmers’ margins. As Duvall wrote: Higher diesel expenses are hitting farmers at one of the most fuel-intensive times of the year —...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $222/head last week, up $26 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices slipped lower. The cutout rose to $376/cwt while fed cattle fell to $220/cwt, strengthening packer returns. Margins remain exceptionally strong compared with...
Understanding the Difference Between Export Inspections and Export Sales
Key Takeaways: Export sales measure new commitments for future delivery, while export inspections provide a timelier gauge of grain that is physically moving through the export system. Sales and inspections often diverge from week to week because they measure different stages of the export pro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.1/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Global Grain Demand Grows; Brazil Election, Currency Swing Boosts Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: The Brazilian real surged to start the week after a surprise election result in which right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election. The swing in the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) exchange rate caused soybeans to jump sharply higher in earl...
Harvest Pressure: Why Grain Prices Often Weaken at Harvest
Key Takeaways: Harvest pressure is fundamentally a timing issue: supply arrives much faster than demand can adjust, creating temporary weakness that can occur across crops and regions. The intensity of that pressure depends less on crop size alone than on how quickly grain moves into the syste...
Hog Industry Margins
Pork packer margins closed out September as positive, marking an improvement in a challenging 2026. According to Sterling Marketing, for the week ending 26 September, pork packer margins were $6.98 per head, which is up from a loss of $0.13 the previous week, more than double the margin of $3.9...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Weighs on Grains, Diesel Could See Much-Needed Relief
What You Need to Know Today: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement initially pushed crude oil lower on Friday, although it later recovered a portion o...
R-CALF Proposes Changes to Cattle Contracts
In a recent social media post, R-CALF unveiled its latest cattle market plan: “contracts that bind producers before establishing a base price, then tie that price to future negotiated cash transactions, should be prohibited.” That proposal aligns with recent legislation by Represent...
The Future of Cattle Pricing
Key Takeaways: The recent pearl-clutching from parts of the beef industry regarding the loss of the daily Kansas fed cattle negotiated trade pricing report is overwrought and ignores the fact that the direction was readily apparent. The shift away from negotiated trade has been well docu...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.84/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $353.3/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Drier Weather Could Accelerate Soybean Harvest
What You Need to Know Today: A drier early-October forecast should help harvest accelerate across areas of the western Corn Belt that have been running behind, adding pressure to soybeans and soymeal today as concerns over near-term physical tightness begin to ease. Markets are still digesting...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 September last week. The total inventory of hogs and pigs in the U.S. was 74.3 million head, reflecting a 1 percent decrease from the previous year but a 1.6 percent increase from June 2026, when the June inventory was at its lowest since 2...
Transportation Perspectives - 1 October
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk markets are mixed this week with the Capesize sector seeing a sharp correction from its recent rally. Smaller vessel classes are steady/firmer but the Chinese Golden Week Holiday is pressuring near-term rates. Dry bulk freight did not receive the bullish boost it...
Where the Milk Goes Determines the Value
August 2026 milk production, the four-class pricing system, and the 2025 Federal Milk Marketing Order reforms Key Takeaways: U.S. milk production is growing because the herd is larger, not because cows are producing more milk. August output increased 1.7 percent, even as production per cow dec...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0075/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.93/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Quarter & Month End Reality Checks
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Higher Corn Stocks Contrast with Tighter Soybean Supplies
Key Takeaways: 1 September corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels, 171 million above expectations and 544 million above last year, providing additional cushion for the 2026/27 balance sheet and potentially adding near-term pressure to prices. June-August corn disappearance increased just 10...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359/short ton, down $0.4 from y...
Market Commentary: Wet Midwest Weather, Grain Stocks Positioning Support CBOT
What You Need to Know Today: CBOT markets pared Monday’s sharp losses as traders booked short profits and adjusted positions ahead of the Grain Stocks report that USDA will release Wednesday afternoon. The 7-day QPF forecast from NOAA now shows heavy rain across the central and western C...
Energy Markets and the Slowly Disappearing Diesel Export Ban Proposal
There was encouraging news over the weekend: the White House may reject the misguided idea on Capitol Hill to ban U.S. diesel exports. What WPI has noted previously was perhaps best put by a Department of Energy report of 2022, under the Biden administration: Petroleum liquids markets are globa...
How Comparative Advantage Shapes Global Trade
Key Takeaways: Comparative advantage encourages countries to specialize in goods they can produce at a lower opportunity cost and rely on trade for others. Differences in climate, land, infrastructure, and technology help determine where agricultural commodities can be produced most efficientl...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to $196/head last week, up $20 from the prior week as fed cattle prices declined faster than the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $375/cwt while fed cattle fell to $221/cwt, modestly widening packer spreads. Margins remain well above year-ago levels as lower cattl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Everything but Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
Policy Quick Hits: Mexico, Ad Hoc Farm Assistance, Ultra-Processed Foods
Mexico Trade Deal The Trump Administration is looking for a win before the November midterm elections, now just five weeks away, especially as trade relations with Canada worsen and there is now a truce with China. The U.S. has made it clear to Mexican officials that it wants a deal with Mexico...
U.S.-China Deal Delivers Tariff Relief, but Little for Soybeans
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Cow-Calf Market Outlook
The heat of summer is now transitioning into more moderate temperatures, and the next two months have the busiest marketing periods of the year for replacement cattle. Weather always influences the replacement cattle market, and the primary grain belt in the Southern Plains, where many cattle a...
Diesel Fuel Costs, One Acre at a Time
Key Takeaways: Diesel accounts for about 64 percent of U.S. farm fuel spending. For farmers, the pressing question is what a higher price adds to each field operation. Iowa farm diesel averaged $5.50/gallon in September, compared with the $2.89/gallon Iowa State assumed for its February machin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
August 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks totaled 2.01 billion pounds, down 0.5 percent from July versus the typical 0.3 percent monthly decline, but 0.9 percent above August 2025 levels. Total red meat stocks rose 0.8 percent for the month despite typically declining 0.1 percent and were 8...