Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset corn area losses while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, wh...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of uncertainty. Volatility in CBOT board soybean crush margins has lessened over the past month with the soybean futures rally being almost equal...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.195/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 3 December)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $3 from yes...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in the House, with 12 days before the 30 January deadline when the government runs out of money once again. The Senate has 12 days of session rem...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.35/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.28/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $314.6/short ton, down $4.1...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle dur...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.225/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $4...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, down $8...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $327/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5725/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $330.8/short ton, up $8.3 from...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to decrease 10 million bushels to 290. The projected U.S. season-average soybean price received by farmers is increased 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel. The global ending stocks of soybeans is reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. corn ending stocks to increase 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The projected U.S. season-average corn price received by farmers is increased 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel; The global ending stocks of corn is reduced slightly to 281.3 million ton...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.245/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $322.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $321/short ton, up $4.1 from yester...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $3.1 f...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.9 from yester...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.17/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.1/short ton, up $4.4 f...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.075/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $312.7/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.4/short ton, down $3...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0775/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, up $6.9...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $8.3 from ye...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cattle. The market dynamics – long known and anticipated by the industry – have even draw the attention of President Trump, who imm...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron ore demand and rising Dalian steel futures. The Panamax sector was the upside leader for the week, primarily due to Pacific demand. Freight m...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4475/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, up $2.3 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whether the report will be published. What we have is history to look back on. During previous shutdowns in 2013 the report was published at th...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $3.1 from yes...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $1.9...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 on the week - pressured by a sharp rally in fed cattle prices and weaker beef values. WPI forecasts that packers will see deeply negative mar...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of systems complexity. His effort to help Argentina, a country with what he sees as sympatico political leanings and near collapse from debt i...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.195/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281/short ton, up $4.1 from...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, which means Q4...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm. Capesize freight rates were volatile last week after China’s port-fee announcement on 9 October. The fees, as expected, forced...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4475/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0525/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset corn area losses while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, wh...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of uncertainty. Volatility in CBOT board soybean crush margins has lessened over the past month with the soybean futures rally being almost equal...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4025/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.195/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.2/short ton, down $0.1 fr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Lower as Slow Export News Overrides Black Sea Tensions
The CBOT was mostly lower at mid-week with the threat of Russian attacks on Ukrainian vessels and ag infrastructure taking a backseat to the lack of export news, particularly from China. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled in the red for the day with soybeans leading the downside move on anot...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1575/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.3/short ton, down $0...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 3 December)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain on Black Sea Tensions; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT initially looked set for a quiet day of post-holiday trade on Tuesday, but that was before Russian President Putin elevated political tensions in the Black Sea region. Putin threatened to increase attacks on Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian tanker vessel...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $311.6/short ton, down $3 from yes...
End of the Year: Lots to Do and a Short Time to Get it Done
Congress returns this week from their Thanksgiving recess to wrap up end-of-year priorities. There are only 13 days of legislative sessions remaining in the House, with 12 days before the 30 January deadline when the government runs out of money once again. The Senate has 12 days of session rem...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins surged for a fourth consecutive week, jumping $108/head to $228 and marking the strongest profitability in more than two years. Margins rose on the combination of a $5.88/cwt decline in live cattle and an $13.20/cwt drop in dressed cattle prices, while the Choice cutout ease...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Ag as Affordability Solution; EU Developments
Ag as Affordability Solution Around 12 percent of Americans received federal food assistance (SNAP) and 10 percent are classified as living below the poverty line but financial analyst Michael W. Green has controversially calculated the threshold at $136,500/year. After all, a family of four li...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.35/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.28/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $314.6/short ton, down $4.1...
Macro Economic Data: Positive but Volatile
Growth in retail sales lost some momentum in September, capping off what otherwise had been a solid quarter of spending for U.S. consumers. Looking at the headline, overall sales rose 0.2 percent in September – the fourth consecutive monthly increase – but lagged the consensus expec...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Sow and Cattle Slaughter Dynamics
HOGS The USDA is releasing weekly slaughter data that was unavailable through the government shutdown. On average, through mid-November, sow slaughter has been around 57,400 head per week, which is about 3,400 head, or 5.6 percent lower than the weekly average of about 60,800 head per week in 2...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Outlook for Cow Numbers Remains Limited
This year’s volatility in beef and cattle prices – particularly in the past two months – has heightened the industry’s interest in what the U.S. cattle herd will look like next year. The border closure with Mexico has certainly shrank cattle-on-feed inventories while str...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets are firmer this week with the Capesize sector again leading the rally. Capesize rates saw support from stronger volumes from East Australia and the Pacific with Brazil and West Africa seeing demand for LH December and January positions. Panamax markets were firmer with growing...
Thanksgiving Holiday
U.S. financial markets are closed for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, 27 November. Consequently, WPI’s offices will be closed as well and no issue of Ag Perspectives will be published. Ag Perspectives will resume Friday, 28 November. We wish everyone a happy holiday! ...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Banty Rooster; Affordability Writ Large
Banty Rooster The EU is largely being ignored in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine over a peace deal but that didn’t stop High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas from asserting her viewpoint. She proclaimed that Russia should “curb” the s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Cattle on Feed for Nov 1, 2025
U.S. Cattle on Feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below November 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.04 million head, 10 percent below 2024. Marketings of fed cattle dur...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
Cattle on Feed Report Shows Record Low Placements for October
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of October since the series began in 1996, dropping 10 percent on the year due to tight supply o...
No Steel for IT; Reformulate; Thanksgiving
No Steel for IT U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were in Europe suggesting the U.S. would relax restrictions on importing EU steel and aluminum if Brussels would remove restrictions on American IT. EU VP Teresa Ribera countered that, “The...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rose for a third consecutive week, climbing $52/head to $115 and hitting the strongest profitability since mid-2023. The gain came amid a sharp $7.65/cwt decline in live cattle prices and continued firmness in the beef cutout. The spread between the cutout and fed cattle val...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
COP Out, G20 In; Evolution of Big
COP Out; G20 In There were two international meetings in the past few days with similar consequences. The first was the COP30 climate change conference in Brazil, which the EU framed as finding any agreement is a win. Brussels wanted participants to speed up their exit from fossil fuels even as...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down...
Shuttering Beef Plants
Tyson Foods announced it will shut one large beef plant and slow down another. The facility shutdown is in Lexington, Nebraska and the plant that will experience a slowdown is in Amarillo, Texas, which will run just one shift per week. The move to “right-size” the compan...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Parsing Newly Resumed Macro Data
With the longest government shutdown in history now over, the flow of economic data has resumed. Two key items of market interest are the September employment report and the August’s trade numbers. But they tell an uncertain story. especially when coupled with the Consumer Price Rep...
Despite Futures Pullback, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Records
With November and the fall calf run almost over, the U.S. beef industry now has its first truly solid estimates of the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, whi...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets are firmer this week as China’s recent soybean purchases stoked hopes that cargo demand, and vessel hire rates, will increase heading into 2026. China has purchased about 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans out of their commitment to purchase 12 MMT in December and January. Cape...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
CBOT board soybean crush margins have been volatile over the past two months due to rapidly changing political and export outlooks as well as shifting global supply expectations. In mid-October, the January crush margin hit a rally high of 155 cents/bushel before it dropped to a contract low of...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.225/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $4...
Livestock Round Up: HPAI Vaccine and Trade Concerns
The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) reports that the most recent cases of HPAI have been confirmed on two commercial broiler operations, two commercial meat duck facilities, and one commercial breeder duck operation in LaGrange and Elkhart Counties. On February 8, 2022, HPAI was ini...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Tariff Trouble; UPF Killers; GIs Meet Reality; European Consensus; Takes On to Know One
Tariff Trouble Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate are pushing for votes in the House on the legitimacy of tariffs imposed by President Trump, including his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). But Biden Administration Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Bloomb...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, down $8...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins strengthened for the fourth straight week and posted one of their largest weekly gains of the year. Margins rose $42/head to $57 as fed cattle prices slipped another $4/cwt and the cutout held near recent highs. The move pushed packer profits to their firmest levels since ea...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
AI Beats Techphobia; Copout 30; Regional Competition
AI Beats Techphobia Germany and France are now seeking delays in implementing the EU’s AI Act and its effort to restrain high-risk artificial intelligence systems. Fear of being left behind prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to argue it is necessary “to use this time in order...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $327/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Stage Two of SDRP Announced
Now that the government has re-opened, the USDA announced yesterday that starting on 24 November producers can enroll in the second wave of the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP). The program covers eligible commodities that did not fall under the first application process. SDRP was ap...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Qualified WASDE Livestock Numbers
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Friday, the first report since September due to the government shutdown. In it, USDA lowered its 2025 red meat production forecast and increased its broiler production outlook. However, the WASDE include...
Show us the Beef; Cost of Living (crisis); State Excesses
Show us the Beef The last American president with a knowledge of agriculture was Jimmy Carter back in the 1970’s. The largest problem policymakers have is squaring the competing concerns of consumers and producers. The latest example is beef. President Trump is increasing beef imports to...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5725/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $330.8/short ton, up $8.3 from...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to decrease 10 million bushels to 290. The projected U.S. season-average soybean price received by farmers is increased 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel. The global ending stocks of soybeans is reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. corn ending stocks to increase 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The projected U.S. season-average corn price received by farmers is increased 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel; The global ending stocks of corn is reduced slightly to 281.3 million ton...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.245/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $322.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Tariff and Macro Policy Change Announcements Coming
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said today that the U.S. is readying an announcement to exempt a number of food and agricultural products not produced in the United States from tariffs. The announcement comes after the President mentioned coffee prices as being high, saying that the U...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were higher last week amid improved freight inquiries, tightening tonnage lists, and traders hoping for increased grain business in late November and early December. Despite hopes to the contrary, there has been essentially no confirmation of any U.S. grain export business to C...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Pre-WASDE Cash Market Soybean Signals
Writing about what the markets say will happen the day before a major USDA report is always a risky - but still useful - endeavor. This year, the recent U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China trade war/trade deal intensify these dynamics of risk and worthiness. The shutdown, of course, by remo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Livestock Roundup: Making Sense of Cattle Markets
The first bit of news is the government shutdown has ended. The House voted 222 to 209 to pass the spending package that will lead to the government re-opening through 30 January. Six Democrats voted “yes”, and two Republicans voted “no” on an otherwise party line vote...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $321/short ton, up $4.1 from yester...
Ham-Handed; Existential WTO Questions; Miscellany; Stove Piped Regs
Ham-Handed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Administration will make “substantial announcements” about tariffs on coffee and other commodities not grown domestically “over the next couple of days.” The move is being made because food inflation has prov...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Pandorra’s Tariff Box
This is not a defense of tariffs or the tariff war, but a discussion about strategy and asymmetry. Since Mr. Trump announced his reciprocal tariff plan (trade war) in April, most news articles have focused on the adverse impacts to Americans. Consumers would pay the cost and speculation was rif...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $3.1 f...
Agreement to End Government Shutdown Reached in Senate, Ag Highlights
As Matt Herrington wrote yesterday, the 41-day government shutdown appears to be coming to an end. The Senate has taken a major step toward it by passing a package that includes full funding for a year for three appropriations bills, including Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, the Legisla...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied for the third straight week and returned to positive values for the first time in a month. Margins rose $16/head and hit an estimated $15 as fed cattle prices fell another $2/cwt while beef values rose by the same amount. The outlook for packer margins is increasingl...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Trump Calls for Meat Packing Anti-Trust Investigation
Late Friday afternoon, President Trump called on the Department of Justice to investigate potential anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry. In an announcement on social media, he wrote: I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who...
Beef, Pasta, Inflation
Replicating his predecessor, Mr. Trump is blaming corporate price gouging for currently high beef prices. Charging the industry with “Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” federal prosecutors will be trying to prove the implausible. After all, beef company margin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.9 from yester...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Phosphate and Potash Added to Critical Minerals List
The Department of the Interior has added phosphate and potash, two key fertilizer ingredients, to the official Critical Minerals List. They are part of 60 minerals deemed vital to the U.S. economy and national security, with 10 of those being newly listed, that face potential risks from disrupt...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.17/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.1/short ton, up $4.4 f...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk freight markets were quiet this past week and continued the trend that has been present since mid-October. The quiet trade let rates drift lower with disappointment about the slow appearance of Chinese demand weighing on market sentiment. The U.S.-China trade deal was thought to be lik...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.075/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $312.7/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. and Global Beef Markets
USDA confirmed last Friday, 31 October, that despite the shutdown several key reports will be issued, including the November Cattle on Feed report, scheduled for 21 November. There will be no data from the October report, but that information could be available through the month-to-month...
Historic Trends in USDA’s November Crop Production Report
Heading into next week’s (mercifully) planned USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, a key focus of the markets has been forecasting the agency’s yield numbers. Over the past five years, USDA has exhibited a tendency to reduce its forecast of the corn and soybean yield, harve...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
IEEPA Alternatives; Transatlantic Machinations; Anti-Bubble in Ag
IEEPA Alternatives The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments today challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally set tariffs on ther countries. Mr. Trump characterized the High Court’s decision as involving, “lit...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Supreme Court to Hear Tariff Case Tomorrow
The Supreme Court will hear the case on President Trump’s tariffs tomorrow, and leading into the court session the White House is exuding confidence that the Court will uphold the President’s tariff powers under the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). However,...
Inspiring Change; Transactional Ag; USMCA Attack
Inspiring Change U.S. President Donald Trump’s assault on NATO was unpleasant, especially for Europe. Yet the result was European capitals finally agreeing to boost their own financial commitment to the pact instead of continuing to free ride on U.S. taxpayers. Now the same inspiration fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.4/short ton, down $3...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins rallied sharply last week and posted their second week of gains to end essentially at breakeven levels. Margins rose $142/head and hit an estimated -$0.89 as fed cattle prices collapsed $7/cwt and beef values rose nearly $4/cwt. Packer margins should continue to improve with...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
Offer Ownership; False Equivalence
Offer Ownership U.S. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) has urged the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the “Big Four” meat packing companies, suggesting their excessive market power is the reason consumers are being charged high prices for beef. The North American Meat Inst...
SNAP Benefits Run Out, USDA Issues Contingency Plan
Due to the government shutdown, benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have lapsed, affecting nearly 42 million people nationwide. The shutdown also threatens benefits for nearly 7 million participants in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
The Outlook for U.S., South American, and Chinese Soy Crush Margins
CBOT board soybean crush margins have recently compressed due to the run-up in soybean prices and weakness in soyoil values. The January board crush fell from its recent high of 155.75 cents/bu on 17 October to 140.75 as of this writing, a decrease of about 10 percent. This week’s sudden...
Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner
Inflation pressure has added tailwinds for the chicken sector. Food service operators have experienced lower traffic and have therefore resorted to promotions to attract customers, mainly featuring chicken. Restaurant traffic declined 2 percent in September, and 30 percent of commercial foodser...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were quiet and mostly flat last week. Spot rates softened a little bit as vessel owners threw in the towel on waiting for improved demand. Most hopes for any recovery in rates now rests on the new U.S.-China trade deal. After the positive meeting between Presidents Xi and...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Trade Deal, Red Meat Terms Unknown
The biggest news today was the announcement that China will purchase 25 MMT of soybeans per year for the next three years and 12 MMT of soybeans this year. The announcement was made in anticipation of a new trade deal. President Trump and China’s President Xi met for an hour and 45 minute...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0775/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, up $6.9...
Will China’s Purchase Agreement Move the Soybean Balance Sheet?
Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Trump and China’s President Xi was apparently successful, based on the comments coming out of the White House and, to a lesser degree, Beijing. One of the key outcomes of the recent meeting was that China will return to purchasing U.S. soybe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
No Political Hack; Goals versus the Market; Technicalities
No Political Hack The U.S. Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Dr. Julie Callahan to become the U.S. agricultural trade ambassador. The appointment is notable because Callahan does not come from Capitol Hill or other warrens of political expediency when it comes to powe...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $8.3 from ye...
Missed Opportunity; Bad Beef Math
Missed Opportunity President Trump shut down trade negotiations and said he would add 10 percent more tariffs on Canadian goods in retaliation for a pro-free trade advertisement in Ontario. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is bragging that the ad was effective and chortles over the ad getting under Tr...
Trump Tariffs: Preliminary Success in Asia
The Trump tariff plans are still unfolding with almost daily changes. However, on a positive note, the latest news is that China and the U.S. have reached a framework agreement prior to President Trump and President Xi meeting on Thursday in Korea at the end of Trump’s Asia tour. China&rs...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins snapped a six-week string of losses and gained $73/head last week due to gains in beef prices and weaker fed cattle prices. Margis were still very weak by historical records (-$143/head) but at least started to trend in the right direction. Beef values are holding steady hea...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...
Milei Wins Argentina Election in a Landslide and U.S. Inflation
Yesterday, Argentina held mid-term Congressional elections, with half of the lower House Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate up for election. The winner was Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party and its coalition partners. The La Libertad Avanza party won 40.78 percent of th...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Trump’s Beef Market Fiasco: The Why and Wherefores of Market Fundamentals
As Matt Herrington and Gary Blumenthal covered Wednesday, Trump has announced big plans for the beef market (Market Commentary, Disconnected Beef) which were largely a bust. Gary wrote, “Live cattle futures pulled back sharply on Wednesday with no apparent fundamental catalyst, other than...
Forecasting 2026 Cattle Inventories: Beef and Dairy Herd Increases Expected
The cattle industry – and beef in particular – has been in the headlines more than usual this year with record-breaking prices for beef and cattle. The market dynamics – long known and anticipated by the industry – have even draw the attention of President Trump, who imm...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry bulk markets were mixed and relatively quiet this week. The Capesize sector traded steady on flagging spot demand despite an increase in Chinese iron ore demand and rising Dalian steel futures. The Panamax sector was the upside leader for the week, primarily due to Pacific demand. Freight m...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4475/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, up $2.3 from yeste...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Analysts’ Guesses
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report would normally be released tomorrow. It is suspended however due to the government shutdown. The question is whether the report will be published. What we have is history to look back on. During previous shutdowns in 2013 the report was published at th...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $3.1 from yes...
Disconnected Beef
U.S. cattle ranchers predictably reacted negatively to President Trump’s suggestion of importing more Argentine beef to lower prices for consumers. The President called on ranchers to lower their prices even though they are set by the market based on supply and demand. Jawboning will caus...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $1.9...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins fell for the sixth straight week and were negative for the third week in a row. Margins are estimated at -$217/head – down $100 on the week - pressured by a sharp rally in fed cattle prices and weaker beef values. WPI forecasts that packers will see deeply negative mar...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Will Argentina Beef Imports Rescue High U.S. Beef Prices?
Last week, due to the coincidental timing of the deal with Argentina and elections coming there on 26 October and with Javier Milei being a close ally of President Trump, we speculated that Trump’s plan for lowering beef prices relied, at least in part, on Argentine imports. On Sunday, Tr...
Ag Complexity; Some Get Disciplined; Vice Pays to Virtue
Ag Complexity President Trump hasn’t met a problem he doesn’t think he can solve, and that is a good thing, but it does run into the reality of systems complexity. His effort to help Argentina, a country with what he sees as sympatico political leanings and near collapse from debt i...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.195/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281/short ton, up $4.1 from...
Trump Announces Cattle and Beef Plan: Color Us Suspicious
This morning, President Trump announced that the administration is working on a plan to lower beef prices. The price of beef is "higher than we want it, and that's going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked out magic" Trump said, with no details offered. As...
Record Breaking Cow-Calf Profitability for 2025
With October and the fall calf run now officially here, the beef industry is getting its first look at the realized profitability of many cow-calf operations. Most operations wean and market calves in the fall, starting in September or early October and running through December, which means Q4...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were mixed this past week with paper values rising as the Chinese holiday ended, but physical values seeing little of the same enthusiasm. Capesize freight rates were volatile last week after China’s port-fee announcement on 9 October. The fees, as expected, forced...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...