Recent Wheat Analysis
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.5/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Late Corn Rally; Soyoil Aborts Complex; Wheat Splits
A mostly bullish overnight session was not sustained, splitting the soy complex and wheat. Corn rallied late to avert a loss. The morning opened with USDA’s Export Sales report reflecting the turn by buyers to lower-cost sources. There was good volume trading corn and the soy complex, and...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.745/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.9/short ton, down $0.9 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 13-19, 2026 Wheat: Net sales of 243,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 540,000 MT were up 67 percent from the previous week and 28 percent...
Market Commentary: Stable Policy, Conditional Demand, Weather Emerging as the Next Risk
Key Market Developments While tariffs were not addressed directly in the State of the Union, trade policy remains steady. Reports during today’s session confirmed that U.S. tariffs on China will remain in the 35 percent–50 percent range, signaling limited escalation ahead of upcomin...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.65/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $321.8/short ton, up $7.4 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On 20 February, Germany confirmed its first case of Newcastle disease in 18 years, after a commercial turkey flock in Neißemünde was found to be infected. Separately, Poland had two new flocks confirmed as being infected with the disease, as the country continues...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 February 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market showed localized volatility across interior regions but remained generally stable at export terminals, the country’s primary trading platform. Among commodities, top-grade milling wheat...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on PNW Export Rumors; Grains Ease on Profit Taking
The soy complex was the upside leader again on rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans from the PNW, as well as some harvest and quality issues in Brazil. Soyoil continued to find support from hopes that the EPA will release its biofuel policy obligations in the coming few days, though no...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.4/short ton, up $1.9 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s 2026 winter crop planting started a little late due to a lack of rainfall, but this improved in January as rainfall caught up. Winter wheat and barley crops are expected to be good for the harvest later in 2026. 20...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Ruling, South America Weather Send CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Monday, with the back-and-forth action of the Supreme Court and President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign imports driving volatility. For the ag markets, the biggest impact of the SCOTUS ruling seems to be doubts that China will adhere to its soybean purchase plan, a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.5/short ton, down $1.3 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains finally arrived across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, halting the crop deterioration seen in recent weeks. The core corn and soybean region benefited most, with some areas receiving up to 100 mm. However, localized damage from excess moisture, wind and hail affected a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the fifth straight week. Funds added 95,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position, with buying in the soy complex driving about two-thirds of the increase. The soy complex saw...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 288,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 41 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 322,600 MT were down 44 percent from the previous week and 26 percen...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $5 from...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Market Commentary: Mostly Bullish Except Corn Where Production Will Fall
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.41/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Navigate Energy Risk and Dollar Strength
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.335/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.9/short ton, down $1.9 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 February 2026 The feature of the second week of February was appreciation of prices on the export platform, meaning regions in close proximity to seaports showed higher prices across all grains, including wheat, barley, corn and even peas. This is somewhat para...
European Market Analysis
Regional News EU cattle markets remain relatively unchanged from recent weeks, with German and Austrian prices falling slightly amid carnival-period reduced interest. EU hog and pig markets have started to stabilize, with the “backlog” of market-ready animals largely cle...
Market Commentary: Weather Pressures Grains; Crush Pace Boosts Soybeans
The CBOT managed to recover from a dramatic overnight plunge with soybeans leading the fight to put values back in the green. Most of the news coming out of the weekend was bearish – between larger Russian wheat crop projections, the advancing South American harvests, and generally favora...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $3.4 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s grain harvest could go as high as 9.0 million MT in 2026, which would represent a doubling of last year’s drought-affected harvest. Rainfall is up by 34 percent over the average, while grain planting has incr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend
There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.33/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.2/short ton, up $1.3...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT
Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.9/short ton, up $4.9 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 30-February 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 488,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 31 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 580,000 MT were up 44 percent from the previous week and 59 percent...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Steady with an Outside Surprise
The U.S. created more new jobs in January than expected, especially in healthcare. And there was more ethanol produced last week than the market expected. Soyoil hit a new contract high, but South American production continues to look quite substantial. The mixed news produced mixed results, bu...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3725/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 February 2026 The primary development during the first week of February was the allocation of grain export quotas for the balance of the 2025/26 marketing season. A total of 213 companies received export rights, compared with 219 companies in 2025. The majority...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is unchanged for exports and slightly higher ending stocks to 931 million bushels - 9 percent higher than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel. The global outlook fo...
Market Commentary: WASDE Confirms Big Supply, Big Demand; Soybeans Gain on Brazil Quality
The headline numbers from the February WASDE – the South American production estimates – were mostly in line with expectations, which is to say the massive Brazilian soybean crop was found to be even more so. USDA increased its assessment of the Brazilian crop to a new record, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s snowfall and rainfall have returned to more normal levels following last year’s drought, which reduced wheat production by about 13.7 percent and barley production by 25.9 percent. Experts point out that, whil...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower on Weather, Pre-WASDE Consolidation
Except for the red-hot soyoil market, the CBOT was mostly lower on Monday, with favorable South American weather and pre-WASDE position adjustment driving the day’s mentality. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled slightly lower Monday in either consolidative trade or a continuation of ch...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, down $5...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
After a very quiet prior week with limited activity, market conditions became significantly more active. Futures rallied early in the week after President Trump said he had spoken with Xi Jinping and that China agreed to buy up to 20 MMT of U.S. soybeans. China has already purchased around 12 M...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
WPI recently expanded our analysis of the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data to include reports on the regime (trending, cyclical, or transition) of each commodity we include. This addition will make it easier for clients to draw actionable inferences from the data that can support trading...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week
It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales. The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1525/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.4...
Market Commentary: Soybean Spillover Rides Another Day
There was high-volume trading in soybeans again today after hitting record levels yesterday. The enthusiasm carried over to corn and soymeal as well, and there was good volume trading in soyoil contracts. There is understandable skepticism that China would pay 80 cents/bushel more for U.S. soyb...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1225/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.2/short ton, up $7 from yeste...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 23-29, 2026 Wheat: Net sales of 373,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 33 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 403,800 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 January 2026 The Russian grains market remains volatile, with bearish sentiment prevailing on the RUB export trade platform despite higher U.S. dollar–denominated export prices and zero export duties currently in place. With a large crop available, marke...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge as Trumps Says China in for Another 8 MMT
There are days in the commodity markets when it feels like nothing is happening in any market, and then there are days when it feels like everything is happening in every market. Today was one of the latter days. The big headline in ag trade Wednesday was the soybean futures and broader s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Large supplies and strong exports of wheat from the Black Sea and Russia continue to cap upside potential for wheat. U.S. and EU markets rallied last week until late in the week, when they hit a combination of technical pressure and increased competition from the Black Sea.&...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9225/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Stocks, Tax Credits; Livestock Futures Gain on Cash Trade
Soyoil was the upside leader in the CBOT’s Tuesday trade after the USDA’s December soyoil stocks figure came in well below expectations. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its proposal on the 45Z Clean Fuel tax credits, which were broadly friendly for ag interests...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $2.6 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Israel will raise import tariffs on wheat from Russia and Ukraine under a new tariff agreement with the United States, a move expected to increase U.S. wheat imports. According to reports, the Israeli government will subsidize U.S...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Strong Dollar; Cattle Surge on Inventory Numbers
The CBOT turned lower to start the week with some of the profit-taking that defined Friday’s end-of-month trade continuing into the first day of February. Also pressuring grain futures was an improved forecast for Argentina, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and sharply lower energy markets. Th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South America Weather Overview Argentina received some rainfall this week, but precipitation was concentrated in the northeast and western regions, with accumulations well below crop requirements. Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to rise over the coming days, with highs between 36°C...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds building their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds added 108,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position last week, with buying in soyoil and CBOT wheat driving most of that increase. The...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 16-22, 2026 Wheat: Net sales of 558,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 10 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,800 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 19 percen...
Market Commentary: Weather Impacts as Commodities Move Their Own Way
Markets traded higher overnight and opened that way this morning, but the soy complex quickly gave way. Weather threatens shipments down the Mississippi, yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, Ukraine, and other places as well. But it is still a buyers’ market. A decent USDA Expor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7225/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $1.8 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
Market Commentary: Weak Dollar Triggers Grains Rally; Wheat Breaks Major Resistance Levels
Grains rallied across the board overnight and through Wednesday’s day session as a plunging U.S. dollar made U.S. exports more competitive. The move is especially valuable as the Brazilian soybean harvest accelerates and could keep U.S. shipments flowing. The cheaper greenback is also cri...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, up $3.8 from yest...
Market Commentary: Energy Supports Soyoil, Soybeans; Weak Dollar Pushes Wheat Higher
Grain trade at the CBOT was mixed Tuesday with higher energy values supporting soyoil and soybeans while a weaker dollar and some commercial buying supported wheat futures. Corn was the laggard for the day as concerns about ethanol production in the U.S. during the two weeks of severe cold weig...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294/short ton, down $0.3 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s barley imports in 2025/26 are forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT, up from only 150,000 MT in 2024/25. The increase is due to the expected 13 percent drought-related drop in barley production this year. Turkey’s impor...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Macroeconomic markets remain especially uncertain and chaotic, and exchange-rate volatility is having a direct impact on grain trade. Pricing has been somewhat inconsistent this week amid the currency moves, as exporters and buyers alike try to navigate the volatility. Over...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6175/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Grains Give Back Gains on Technical Weakness; Hogs Hit New Highs
Trade in ag commodity futures saw two diverging trends to start the week. Weakness quickly developed in grains and oilseeds amid profit taking, weak technicals, and Export Inspections data that were about as exciting as the last half of the Broncos–Patriots game. Conversely, cattle future...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN As of today, 93 percent of the expected area has been planted, representing a year-on-year delay of more than five percentage points. Some late-planted fields may remain unseeded due to a lack of soil moisture. Rainfall remains absent, while persistently high temperatures are increasing cr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Funds cut 3,800 contracts from their net all-ags short position last week, with buying in soyoil and livestock futures driving most of that incr...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.7 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 9-15, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 618,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 372,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold weather is complicating operations, but grain and oilseed receiving and loadings are continuing—albeit with delays—at Russia&rsqu...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq is reported to be facing the “driest year in modern history” due to drought and greatly reduced water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Turkey. Forecasters say the 2025/26 wheat crop could be down by...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
European Market Analysis
Regional News In the first two weeks of 2026, 10 countries in the EU reported a combined total of 42 outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial poultry farms. The virus was detected on 17 farms in Poland, five each in Germany, France, and Hungary, and four in Belgium. Bulgaria, Denmark,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 2 - 8, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 303,300 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week, but down 29 perc...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 January 2026 The first week of January is typically quiet for trading and logistics as Russia observes Orthodox Christmas. Activity remained subdued, although the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian war continued to shape market sentiment. Both sides carried out airst...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
London based GAFTA – Grain and Feed Trade Association – advises that in 2024/25 they had 314 new mainly grain arbitrations and 43 appeals. 170 arbitrations were finalized while 46 were settled outside of arbitration. The average cost for an arbitration, under rule 125 for a GAFTA me...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1125/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.49/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $5.4...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 26, 2025 – January 1, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 118,700 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 172,000 MT were down 60 percent from the p...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.46/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.67/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.4/short ton, up $5.9 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 December 2025–02 January 2026 Russia’s grain market remained bearish during the final week of December, with most fundamentals continuing to pressure prices and preventing authorities from setting higher export duties. The country will remain heavily export...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco has established its soft wheat import rebate program for 1 January to 30 April 2026. The actual amount of the import rebate is calculated on the average landed cost versus the government set reference price based on inform...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to raise its crop estimate to 27.8 MMT, in line with other estimates and similar to general market expectations. T...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year
Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green for the day but not for the week. Traders brushed off increasing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and any risk of winterkill in wheat. It was a fift...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.4575/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $3...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down...
China Market Analysis
Grain Utilization Grain market prices have been cooling of late due to the prospects of a large South American crop, but China is also cited as an influence. Sinograin has been auctioning soybeans and it may also be releasing some of its reserves of corn into the market. Corn and wheat are bein...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Grinch Close for 2025
According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of December and the first two days of January. The so-called Santa Clause rally has happened nearly 80 percent of the time, with analysts attr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.635/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $4.1...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday
The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futures rallied on the once-again-escalating tensions in the Black Sea and dry weather in the U.S. southern plains that has left the wheat crop v...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6325/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $308.1/short ton, up $3.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained stable and bearish, with weak domestic and export demand limiting price gains. Trade activity was slow, and a strong ruble prompted the government to maintain export duties. Global wheat supply remains ample,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...
Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum
Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its march higher, worries about wheat supplies moving out of Ukraine and even volume was not totally lower with soymeal and lean hog trading keep...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.17/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.515/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.2/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds further expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the sixth straight week. Funds added 176,000 contracts (60 percent) to their all-ags net long position, with strong and mostly uniform buying across the ag sector. The soy co...
Market Commentary: Green Despite Many Obstacles
There was mostly green on the board for Friday and for the week as a whole. Another contract high was printed by soyoil as higher energies, higher inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions all favored commodities. There are some topical contrasts. For example, the cattle market is t...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.485/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7075/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.5/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Late Corn Rally; Soyoil Aborts Complex; Wheat Splits
A mostly bullish overnight session was not sustained, splitting the soy complex and wheat. Corn rallied late to avert a loss. The morning opened with USDA’s Export Sales report reflecting the turn by buyers to lower-cost sources. There was good volume trading corn and the soy complex, and...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.745/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $320.9/short ton, down $0.9 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 13-19, 2026 Wheat: Net sales of 243,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 540,000 MT were up 67 percent from the previous week and 28 percent...
Market Commentary: Stable Policy, Conditional Demand, Weather Emerging as the Next Risk
Key Market Developments While tariffs were not addressed directly in the State of the Union, trade policy remains steady. Reports during today’s session confirmed that U.S. tariffs on China will remain in the 35 percent–50 percent range, signaling limited escalation ahead of upcomin...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.65/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $321.8/short ton, up $7.4 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On 20 February, Germany confirmed its first case of Newcastle disease in 18 years, after a commercial turkey flock in Neißemünde was found to be infected. Separately, Poland had two new flocks confirmed as being infected with the disease, as the country continues...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 February 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market showed localized volatility across interior regions but remained generally stable at export terminals, the country’s primary trading platform. Among commodities, top-grade milling wheat...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on PNW Export Rumors; Grains Ease on Profit Taking
The soy complex was the upside leader again on rumors of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans from the PNW, as well as some harvest and quality issues in Brazil. Soyoil continued to find support from hopes that the EPA will release its biofuel policy obligations in the coming few days, though no...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5525/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $314.4/short ton, up $1.9 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia’s 2026 winter crop planting started a little late due to a lack of rainfall, but this improved in January as rainfall caught up. Winter wheat and barley crops are expected to be good for the harvest later in 2026. 20...
Market Commentary: SCOTUS Ruling, South America Weather Send CBOT Lower
The CBOT turned lower on Monday, with the back-and-forth action of the Supreme Court and President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign imports driving volatility. For the ag markets, the biggest impact of the SCOTUS ruling seems to be doubts that China will adhere to its soybean purchase plan, a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.4975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $312.5/short ton, down $1.3 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains finally arrived across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, halting the crop deterioration seen in recent weeks. The core corn and soybean region benefited most, with some areas receiving up to 100 mm. However, localized damage from excess moisture, wind and hail affected a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the fifth straight week. Funds added 95,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position, with buying in the soy complex driving about two-thirds of the increase. The soy complex saw...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 6-12, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 288,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 41 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 322,600 MT were down 44 percent from the previous week and 26 percen...
Market Commentary: Outside Market Noise, but Fundamentals Prevail
Overall economic data released earlier on Friday presented a mixed picture, and that was followed by a long-expected court ruling on Trump tariffs. This week had lots of geopolitical uncertainties, from a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine going s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8025/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.375/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.8/short ton, up $5 from...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Market Commentary: Mostly Bullish Except Corn Where Production Will Fall
USDA issued its major S&D crop forecast for the upcoming crop season at its annual Outlook Conference. Although generally bullish for corn and bearish for soybeans, with a modest shift in plantings from beans to corn, the report had minimal market impact except perhaps in long-dated new cro...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.41/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Grain Markets Navigate Energy Risk and Dollar Strength
Key Market Developments Today’s theme was geopolitics and economics. Tension between the United States and Iran escalated despite reports of an “understanding” reached during Tuesday’s nuclear discussions. Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz during milita...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.27/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.47/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.335/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.9/short ton, down $1.9 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 February 2026 The feature of the second week of February was appreciation of prices on the export platform, meaning regions in close proximity to seaports showed higher prices across all grains, including wheat, barley, corn and even peas. This is somewhat para...
European Market Analysis
Regional News EU cattle markets remain relatively unchanged from recent weeks, with German and Austrian prices falling slightly amid carnival-period reduced interest. EU hog and pig markets have started to stabilize, with the “backlog” of market-ready animals largely cle...
Market Commentary: Weather Pressures Grains; Crush Pace Boosts Soybeans
The CBOT managed to recover from a dramatic overnight plunge with soybeans leading the fight to put values back in the green. Most of the news coming out of the weekend was bearish – between larger Russian wheat crop projections, the advancing South American harvests, and generally favora...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3775/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.34/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $3.4 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s grain harvest could go as high as 9.0 million MT in 2026, which would represent a doubling of last year’s drought-affected harvest. Rainfall is up by 34 percent over the average, while grain planting has incr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Mixed to Lower on Safety Ahead of the Long Weekend
There was both a lot and not much going on this Friday the 13th in November. The fundamentals are unchanged, but some riskier positions were neutralized and some profits taken ahead of the long weekend, with the federal holiday closing down futures markets on Monday. Volume was generally lower,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.33/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $309.2/short ton, up $1.3...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Market Commentary: China Headlines and Technical Buying Lift CBOT
Key Market Developments Markets head into Friday’s CPI report expecting a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, keeping year-over-year readings near +2.5 percent. That matters — but perhaps not as much as it would have a few weeks ago. This week&...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.525/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3725/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.9/short ton, up $4.9 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 30-February 5, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 488,000 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 31 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 580,000 MT were up 44 percent from the previous week and 59 percent...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Steady with an Outside Surprise
The U.S. created more new jobs in January than expected, especially in healthcare. And there was more ethanol produced last week than the market expected. Soyoil hit a new contract high, but South American production continues to look quite substantial. The mixed news produced mixed results, bu...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3725/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.24/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303/short ton, up $2.2 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–6 February 2026 The primary development during the first week of February was the allocation of grain export quotas for the balance of the 2025/26 marketing season. A total of 213 companies received export rights, compared with 219 companies in 2025. The majority...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is unchanged for exports and slightly higher ending stocks to 931 million bushels - 9 percent higher than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel. The global outlook fo...
Market Commentary: WASDE Confirms Big Supply, Big Demand; Soybeans Gain on Brazil Quality
The headline numbers from the February WASDE – the South American production estimates – were mostly in line with expectations, which is to say the massive Brazilian soybean crop was found to be even more so. USDA increased its assessment of the Brazilian crop to a new record, which...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s snowfall and rainfall have returned to more normal levels following last year’s drought, which reduced wheat production by about 13.7 percent and barley production by 25.9 percent. Experts point out that, whil...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower on Weather, Pre-WASDE Consolidation
Except for the red-hot soyoil market, the CBOT was mostly lower on Monday, with favorable South American weather and pre-WASDE position adjustment driving the day’s mentality. Corn, wheat, and soybeans all settled slightly lower Monday in either consolidative trade or a continuation of ch...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, down $5...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
After a very quiet prior week with limited activity, market conditions became significantly more active. Futures rallied early in the week after President Trump said he had spoken with Xi Jinping and that China agreed to buy up to 20 MMT of U.S. soybeans. China has already purchased around 12 M...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
WPI recently expanded our analysis of the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data to include reports on the regime (trending, cyclical, or transition) of each commodity we include. This addition will make it easier for clients to draw actionable inferences from the data that can support trading...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics Skews the Week
It was another day of big volume in the soy complex. While soybeans closed higher for a fourth session, corn and wheat failed to follow, or perhaps their drag pulled soybeans back to fundamental reality. There are still no new export sales. The Chinese are smart, and if they intend to buy...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1525/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, up $0.4...
Market Commentary: Soybean Spillover Rides Another Day
There was high-volume trading in soybeans again today after hitting record levels yesterday. The enthusiasm carried over to corn and soymeal as well, and there was good volume trading in soyoil contracts. There is understandable skepticism that China would pay 80 cents/bushel more for U.S. soyb...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $11.1225/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.2/short ton, up $7 from yeste...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 23-29, 2026 Wheat: Net sales of 373,900 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 33 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 403,800 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26–30 January 2026 The Russian grains market remains volatile, with bearish sentiment prevailing on the RUB export trade platform despite higher U.S. dollar–denominated export prices and zero export duties currently in place. With a large crop available, marke...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge as Trumps Says China in for Another 8 MMT
There are days in the commodity markets when it feels like nothing is happening in any market, and then there are days when it feels like everything is happening in every market. Today was one of the latter days. The big headline in ag trade Wednesday was the soybean futures and broader s...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Large supplies and strong exports of wheat from the Black Sea and Russia continue to cap upside potential for wheat. U.S. and EU markets rallied last week until late in the week, when they hit a combination of technical pressure and increased competition from the Black Sea.&...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.295/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9225/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Stocks, Tax Credits; Livestock Futures Gain on Cash Trade
Soyoil was the upside leader in the CBOT’s Tuesday trade after the USDA’s December soyoil stocks figure came in well below expectations. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its proposal on the 45Z Clean Fuel tax credits, which were broadly friendly for ag interests...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6575/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $2.6 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Israel will raise import tariffs on wheat from Russia and Ukraine under a new tariff agreement with the United States, a move expected to increase U.S. wheat imports. According to reports, the Israeli government will subsidize U.S...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Weather, Strong Dollar; Cattle Surge on Inventory Numbers
The CBOT turned lower to start the week with some of the profit-taking that defined Friday’s end-of-month trade continuing into the first day of February. Also pressuring grain futures was an improved forecast for Argentina, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and sharply lower energy markets. Th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2575/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6025/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
South America Weather Overview Argentina received some rainfall this week, but precipitation was concentrated in the northeast and western regions, with accumulations well below crop requirements. Looking ahead, temperatures are expected to rise over the coming days, with highs between 36°C...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds building their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds added 108,000 contracts to their all-ags net long position last week, with buying in soyoil and CBOT wheat driving most of that increase. The...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $2.4...
Market Commentary: Get Out of Dodge Friday
Although the week was mixed, there was a convincing move lower on Friday. The mood spelled exit as all the major agricultural contracts closed lower. Even those trading the three major wheat contracts, who had mostly countered the bearish sensibilities elsewhere on the board in many of the prev...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 16-22, 2026 Wheat: Net sales of 558,200 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 10 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 378,800 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 19 percen...
Market Commentary: Weather Impacts as Commodities Move Their Own Way
Markets traded higher overnight and opened that way this morning, but the soy complex quickly gave way. Weather threatens shipments down the Mississippi, yields in Argentina and southern Brazil, Ukraine, and other places as well. But it is still a buyers’ market. A decent USDA Expor...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3075/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.7225/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $1.8 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 January 2026 The Russian grains market is volatile, showing bearish sentiments on the RUB export trade platform despite increased export prices, even with zero duty in place. The government woke up to the fact that, to remain competitive and make both the farm...
Market Commentary: Weak Dollar Triggers Grains Rally; Wheat Breaks Major Resistance Levels
Grains rallied across the board overnight and through Wednesday’s day session as a plunging U.S. dollar made U.S. exports more competitive. The move is especially valuable as the Brazilian soybean harvest accelerates and could keep U.S. shipments flowing. The cheaper greenback is also cri...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.75/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $297.8/short ton, up $3.8 from yest...
Market Commentary: Energy Supports Soyoil, Soybeans; Weak Dollar Pushes Wheat Higher
Grain trade at the CBOT was mixed Tuesday with higher energy values supporting soyoil and soybeans while a weaker dollar and some commercial buying supported wheat futures. Corn was the laggard for the day as concerns about ethanol production in the U.S. during the two weeks of severe cold weig...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294/short ton, down $0.3 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s barley imports in 2025/26 are forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT, up from only 150,000 MT in 2024/25. The increase is due to the expected 13 percent drought-related drop in barley production this year. Turkey’s impor...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Macroeconomic markets remain especially uncertain and chaotic, and exchange-rate volatility is having a direct impact on grain trade. Pricing has been somewhat inconsistent this week amid the currency moves, as exporters and buyers alike try to navigate the volatility. Over...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.225/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6175/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $294.3/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Grains Give Back Gains on Technical Weakness; Hogs Hit New Highs
Trade in ag commodity futures saw two diverging trends to start the week. Weakness quickly developed in grains and oilseeds amid profit taking, weak technicals, and Export Inspections data that were about as exciting as the last half of the Broncos–Patriots game. Conversely, cattle future...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN As of today, 93 percent of the expected area has been planted, representing a year-on-year delay of more than five percentage points. Some late-planted fields may remain unseeded due to a lack of soil moisture. Rainfall remains absent, while persistently high temperatures are increasing cr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Funds cut 3,800 contracts from their net all-ags short position last week, with buying in soyoil and livestock futures driving most of that incr...
Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week
Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several factors influencing prices. Winterkill: An outsized winter storm, possibly including ice, is descending on the U.S. winter wheat crop. Whil...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6775/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.7 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 9-15, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 618,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 372,400 MT were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War
Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain exports are stymied by Russian attacks, with both sides seemingly inching forward on talks, but a survey of former diplomats shows 80 percent...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.64/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, up $4.8 from...
Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook
The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support from export-led grain demand. Shortly after the day session began, however, hopes of higher trade for grains quickly evaporated as funds and s...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.645/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.4/short ton, down $0.2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold weather is complicating operations, but grain and oilseed receiving and loadings are continuing—albeit with delays—at Russia&rsqu...
Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow
The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yields, in particular) unnerved investors. The biggest driver of the risk-off trade was President Trump’s continued – and appar...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq is reported to be facing the “driest year in modern history” due to drought and greatly reduced water flow in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Turkey. Forecasters say the 2025/26 wheat crop could be down by...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, up $1.6...
European Market Analysis
Regional News In the first two weeks of 2026, 10 countries in the EU reported a combined total of 42 outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial poultry farms. The virus was detected on 17 farms in Poland, five each in Germany, France, and Hungary, and four in Belgium. Bulgaria, Denmark,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space for the fourth straight week. Funds shed 99,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn accounting for 77,000 c...
Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows
By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply numbers in Monday’s WASDE. Volumes were generally light on this last day of trading ahead of Monday’s MLK holiday. Only the catt...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5775/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Market Commentary: Volatility Continues with Corn Less Supported than Soybeans
The market continues to look for a floor following Monday’s WASDE report, with soybeans and soyoil finding terra firma on a bullish NOPA report that showed crush at a near-record level. Volume was generally subdued but skyrocketed in soyoil as traders sought to get a piece of the rising a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $289.2/short ton, down $2.7 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 2 - 8, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 32 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 303,300 MT were up 76 percent from the previous week, but down 29 perc...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.425/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, up $0.3 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 January 2026 The first week of January is typically quiet for trading and logistics as Russia observes Orthodox Christmas. Activity remained subdued, although the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian war continued to shape market sentiment. Both sides carried out airst...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control Again; Trump-Iran-China Triangle Sinks Soybeans
Bears were once again in control of the CBOT on Tuesday as the effects of the January WASDE continue to ripple through markets. Tuesday’s trade also saw the bearish effects of rising U.S. political tensions after President Trump announced the implementation of a 25 percent tariff on any c...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
London based GAFTA – Grain and Feed Trade Association – advises that in 2024/25 they had 314 new mainly grain arbitrations and 43 appeals. 170 arbitrations were finalized while 46 were settled outside of arbitration. The average cost for an arbitration, under rule 125 for a GAFTA me...
Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans
The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added area to the soybean harvested and made a bearish cut to U.S. wheat demand, moves which sent all of the major commodity futures markets sharply...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1125/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.49/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $298.3/short ton, down $5.4...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.625/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.7/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE
As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also generally lower trading ranges. The soybean complex traded higher on strength in coproducts but the rest of the board was mostly in the red...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for December 26, 2025 – January 1, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 118,700 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 172,000 MT were down 60 percent from the p...
Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes
Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis given the historical propensity for USDA’s January WASDE report to contain curve balls (see below). New sales of soybeans to China made...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.46/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.6/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Market Commentary: Export Chatter Lifts Soymeal, Soybeans; Weather Worries Boost Wheat
The CBOT renewed its early-week strength at mid-week and turned higher with soybeans and soymeal in the lead. Fresh news was light for the day, but markets responded positively to rumors of export business getting done for soybeans and soymeal, with wheat gaining on an increasingly warm and les...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.67/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $305.4/short ton, up $5.9 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 December 2025–02 January 2026 Russia’s grain market remained bearish during the final week of December, with most fundamentals continuing to pressure prices and preventing authorities from setting higher export duties. The country will remain heavily export...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.5625/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco has established its soft wheat import rebate program for 1 January to 30 April 2026. The actual amount of the import rebate is calculated on the average landed cost versus the government set reference price based on inform...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions deteriorated further. Funds shed 34,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with selling in corn and soybeans accounting for mo...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally on Crude Oil and Short Covering; Cattle Tempest Now Tempered
Ag markets were higher with support coming from a rally in crude oil and broader energy markets after the U.S. removed Venezuela’s president from power over the weekend. The move has direct bullish implications for crude oil supplies in the near term, which should help broader commodity m...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to raise its crop estimate to 27.8 MMT, in line with other estimates and similar to general market expectations. T...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.62/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, up $3.9 from yest...
Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year
Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green for the day but not for the week. Traders brushed off increasing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and any risk of winterkill in wheat. It was a fift...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.4575/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $296/short ton, down $3...
New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability
On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. Cotton and rice will receive the highest payments. On 15 December WPI estimated the upcoming payments, with cotton and rice at the top of t...
Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future
The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level enthusiasm. Positions were tidied up with few fresh inputs as the past is the past and the future is now the USDA January WASDE report. ...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.475/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $299.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Export Sales Fail to Excite Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Down on Technical Trade
The CBOT traded mostly lower on Tuesday with funds remaining dedicated sellers. The motivation for their selling stems partially from pre-holiday risk-off trading and partially from the technical weakness enveloping the charts. Corn was the downside leader for the second straight day, though ob...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6225/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down...
China Market Analysis
Grain Utilization Grain market prices have been cooling of late due to the prospects of a large South American crop, but China is also cited as an influence. Sinograin has been auctioning soybeans and it may also be releasing some of its reserves of corn into the market. Corn and wheat are bein...
Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT
Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened week. The only market to finish higher was soyoil, where a geopolitical tension driving bounce in crude oil helped support the vegoil. Improve...
Grinch Close for 2025
According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of December and the first two days of January. The so-called Santa Clause rally has happened nearly 80 percent of the time, with analysts attr...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.635/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $303.3/short ton, down $4.1...
Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade
The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable technical moves. The first of which, on a broad scale, is that early strength in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat, all f...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soybeans closed at $10.725/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $307.4/short ton, down $0.7 fro...
Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday
The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futures rallied on the once-again-escalating tensions in the Black Sea and dry weather in the U.S. southern plains that has left the wheat crop v...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.6325/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $308.1/short ton, up $3.9 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 15–19 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained stable and bearish, with weak domestic and export demand limiting price gains. Trade activity was slow, and a strong ruble prompted the government to maintain export duties. Global wheat supply remains ample,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the soy complex and corn. Funds shed nearly 170,000 contracts from their all-ags position last week, with about 90 percent of that coming from...
Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum
Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its march higher, worries about wheat supplies moving out of Ukraine and even volume was not totally lower with soymeal and lean hog trading keep...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.17/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.515/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Soymeal closed at $304.2/short ton, up $2.3 from...