Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Product demand in the soy complex has also been a huge negative factor recently with uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy causing a sharp redu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 12 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 236,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 3 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lower taxes and less regulation but is less enthralled with his attraction to tariffs. In fact, the tariffs are expected to be inflationary, cau...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days or possibly even weeks. National polls indicate a tight race between candidates Trump and Harris, but betting markets tell a different story...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.1 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $4.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $2.1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 244,400 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 12 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets
The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit taking. Wheat futures were higher on poor U.S. conditions ratings and drought conditions in the Southern Plains, despite forecasts of rains this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Market Commentary: Poor Conditions Rally Wheat; Big Crop(s) Pressure Soybeans; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with the wheat market in the lead on worrying crop conditions and persistent drought in the HRW growing region. USDA’s initial crop ratings for the winter wheat crop were the second lowest for the week since the mid-1980s, which means the rains in the two-w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.6525/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, down $3 from y...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
Market Commentary: Oil Drags CBOT Lower; Hogs Hit New Highs; Cattle Rise After Report
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with the sharp decline in crude oil futures dragging soyoil, the broader soy complex, and corn and wheat lower. There was little fresh fundamental news to guide commodity futures for the day, which gave the oil market’s plunge an outsized influence on ag fu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.74/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, down $1 fr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
Market Commentary: Mix Week Reflecting Fundamentals
Yesterday’s bullish Export Sales report was followed by more sales of corn and soybeans today. However, there had already been sufficient gains in the futures market this week and current sales are simply on track with USDA’s forecast. The trade does not want to get too far out in front of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8775/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 11-17, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 276,500 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, down $4.6 from y...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rise on Export Data; Soybeans Fall on South American Weather
Exports remain the name of the commodity game this week with all eyes on the UDSA daily “flash” export sales announcements as well as this week’s weekly Export Sales report. On Thursday, both of those factors did not disappoint and gave the already bullish corn market another boost. USDA report...
Market Commentary: More Exports, More Gains
A sixth straight day of daily “flash” export sales announcements from USDA sent CBOT corn and soybean futures higher with funds covering shorts and commercials positioning bullishly too. The export demand for corn caught the market by surprise and has created the current rally, while the season...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.76/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $317.7/short ton, down $0.6 from yes...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Market Commentary: Exports Rally Corn, Soybeans but Pressure Wheat; Hogs Hit New Contract Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade again to start the week with a slate of fresh daily “flash” export sales announcements supporting corn and soybeans, as did a generally positive Export Inspections report. That helped soybeans recover from Friday’s drubbing and allowed the corn market to follow through...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.81/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, up $2.7 from yest...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.7/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 4-10, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 393,100 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 30 pe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday on Exports, Weather
Bears started out the week in full control of the CBOT, but their grip loosened on Thursday and bulls managed to post at turnaround in several markets. Chief among the turnaround was corn futures where an early dip below $4.00 in the December contract triggered short covering and some commercia...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.1/short ton, up $4.4 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, up $1.9 from yesterd...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.91/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $3.5 f...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.46/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $7.9...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipment of 531,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 perc...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $340.4/short ton, down $7.1 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pulling grain futures grudgingly higher, but that has completely flipped following Monday’s Grain Stocks report. Now, corn and wheat are ris...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, up $5.9 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as a result of the very good harvest in 2024 – up by 3.2 MMT. Wheat production was well above the average at a record level of 31,400 MM...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Bullish Corn but Neutral Soy, Wheat; Port Strike Looms
Monday’s CBOT trade was essentially dedicated to the Grain Stocks report with pre-report trading seeing muted action and steady volumes while post-report trade saw a meaningful rally in corn and a pullback in soybeans. The report issued a surprisingly small corn stocks figure, which spurr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.84/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $341.6/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to use ratio for corn and wheat have been dropping for four straight years. Over that timeframe, it is down 64 percent for corn and 48 percent f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6575/bushel, up $0.2475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $344.1/short ton, up $17.3 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.41/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.8/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5325/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.2/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4225/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $325.9/short ton, down $2.8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediately with the normal buying approval being shortened from 42 days to 15 days. The change is being made in order to maintain food security. Th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.135/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.825/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3925/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.7/short ton, up $9.5 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week. Where there...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0175/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, down $2.4 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 6-12, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 246,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 642,100 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 18 percent from the previ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0575/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1325/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.4/short ton, down $0.1 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Three Wheat Peculiarity
The December SRW and HRW contracts closed lower today, while December HRS added value. These three wheat contracts often move in unison, but not always. And they have many other differences that define them. HRS is typically priced higher due to its greater protein content and thus demand, espe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.125/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.06/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.5/short ton, down $2.3 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.045/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $322.9/short ton, down $0...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 30-September 5, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 474,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 542,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 1 pe...
Market Commentary: USDA Confirms Record Corn, Soy Yields but Ending Stocks Fall
For a WASDE report that confirmed record-large corn and soybean yields, futures’ reaction to the data was relatively muted. Those hoping for a festival of bearish numbers were disappointing as USDA moderated the impacts of larger yields with reductions in 2023/24 carryout and modest &ndas...
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Product demand in the soy complex has also been a huge negative factor recently with uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy causing a sharp redu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 12 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 236,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 3 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lower taxes and less regulation but is less enthralled with his attraction to tariffs. In fact, the tariffs are expected to be inflationary, cau...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days or possibly even weeks. National polls indicate a tight race between candidates Trump and Harris, but betting markets tell a different story...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.1 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $4.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $2.1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 244,400 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 12 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets
The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit taking. Wheat futures were higher on poor U.S. conditions ratings and drought conditions in the Southern Plains, despite forecasts of rains this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Market Commentary: Poor Conditions Rally Wheat; Big Crop(s) Pressure Soybeans; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with the wheat market in the lead on worrying crop conditions and persistent drought in the HRW growing region. USDA’s initial crop ratings for the winter wheat crop were the second lowest for the week since the mid-1980s, which means the rains in the two-w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.6525/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, down $3 from y...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
Market Commentary: Oil Drags CBOT Lower; Hogs Hit New Highs; Cattle Rise After Report
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with the sharp decline in crude oil futures dragging soyoil, the broader soy complex, and corn and wheat lower. There was little fresh fundamental news to guide commodity futures for the day, which gave the oil market’s plunge an outsized influence on ag fu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.74/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, down $1 fr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
Market Commentary: Mix Week Reflecting Fundamentals
Yesterday’s bullish Export Sales report was followed by more sales of corn and soybeans today. However, there had already been sufficient gains in the futures market this week and current sales are simply on track with USDA’s forecast. The trade does not want to get too far out in front of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8775/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 11-17, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 276,500 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, down $4.6 from y...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rise on Export Data; Soybeans Fall on South American Weather
Exports remain the name of the commodity game this week with all eyes on the UDSA daily “flash” export sales announcements as well as this week’s weekly Export Sales report. On Thursday, both of those factors did not disappoint and gave the already bullish corn market another boost. USDA report...
Market Commentary: More Exports, More Gains
A sixth straight day of daily “flash” export sales announcements from USDA sent CBOT corn and soybean futures higher with funds covering shorts and commercials positioning bullishly too. The export demand for corn caught the market by surprise and has created the current rally, while the season...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.76/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $317.7/short ton, down $0.6 from yes...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Market Commentary: Exports Rally Corn, Soybeans but Pressure Wheat; Hogs Hit New Contract Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade again to start the week with a slate of fresh daily “flash” export sales announcements supporting corn and soybeans, as did a generally positive Export Inspections report. That helped soybeans recover from Friday’s drubbing and allowed the corn market to follow through...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.81/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, up $2.7 from yest...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.7/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 4-10, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 393,100 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 30 pe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday on Exports, Weather
Bears started out the week in full control of the CBOT, but their grip loosened on Thursday and bulls managed to post at turnaround in several markets. Chief among the turnaround was corn futures where an early dip below $4.00 in the December contract triggered short covering and some commercia...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.1/short ton, up $4.4 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, up $1.9 from yesterd...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.91/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $3.5 f...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.46/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $7.9...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipment of 531,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 perc...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $340.4/short ton, down $7.1 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 September 2024 The Russian grain market was bullish in European Russia but bearish in the Asian part and Siberia because Kazakhstan introduced a temporary ban on imports of Russian wheat. Grain storage facilities are being filled up to the brim with new crop c...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Fuel 2-Day Corn Rally; Wheat Rises with Russian Prices
CBOT grains and oilseeds seem to be playing “follow the leader” and have recently switched roles. Previously, soybeans were rallying and pulling grain futures grudgingly higher, but that has completely flipped following Monday’s Grain Stocks report. Now, corn and wheat are ris...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, up $5.9 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports in 2024/25 could drop to almost nothing as a result of the very good harvest in 2024 – up by 3.2 MMT. Wheat production was well above the average at a record level of 31,400 MM...
Market Commentary: Grain Stocks Bullish Corn but Neutral Soy, Wheat; Port Strike Looms
Monday’s CBOT trade was essentially dedicated to the Grain Stocks report with pre-report trading seeing muted action and steady volumes while post-report trade saw a meaningful rally in corn and a pullback in soybeans. The report issued a surprisingly small corn stocks figure, which spurr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.84/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.57/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $341.6/short ton, down $2.5 fro...
Russia’s Grain Shortfall
Today’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report provided the market with a bullish input but there may be another shoe to drop. Russia’s stocks to use ratio for corn and wheat have been dropping for four straight years. Over that timeframe, it is down 64 percent for corn and 48 percent f...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Weather The weather remains a recurring issue in Argentina. The lack of rainfall across much of the country's agricultural region is starting to impact both the wheat crop, currently in its yield-defining stages, and the sowing of summer crops. Precipitation anomaly maps...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.18/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.6575/bushel, up $0.2475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $344.1/short ton, up $17.3 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8425/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.41/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $326.8/short ton, down $1.4...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Selloff Sinks Soyoil, Soybeans; Corn, Wheat Lower Ahead of Stocks Report
A surprise selloff in crude oil put heavy selling pressure on the CBOT soy complex on Thursday, with soyoil and soybeans scoring bearish reversals for the day. The weakness in the soy complex sent corn and wheat into the red as well, with traders unwilling to take more long risks heading into t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8925/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5325/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.2/short ton, up $2.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soyoil and Beans Lead Sector Higher
The CBOT was higher once again with soybeans and the oilseed complex leading the way. Drought in Brazil and the surging soyoil prices have supported the complex and driven a widespread wave of short-covering by funds. Corn and wheat futures followed the oilseed markets higher at midweek but fai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stagnant as export demand is weak and domestic demand is even weaker. Moreover, appreciation of grains earlier in the month reached its peak at this stage of the game and buyers are very careful right now. Sellers...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Extend Rallies; Wheat, Corn Fall as Short-Covering Fades
The CBOT saw diverging trading patterns on Tuesday with soybeans and soyoil continuing their rallies and extending gains to new highs. China is rumored to be purchasing up to 1.2 MMT (44 Mbu or 20 cargoes) of U.S. soybeans for October-November delivery, which put a bid under the market. Too, th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.78/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.4225/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $325.9/short ton, down $2.8...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Bangladesh reports that it will be importing 400,000 MT of wheat immediately with the normal buying approval being shortened from 42 days to 15 days. The change is being made in order to maintain food security. Th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Weather, Short Covering; Monetary Policy Turns Bullish Commodities
The CBOT jumped sharply higher to start the new week with wheat leading the move with overnight strength. Fund short covering drove much of the day’s gains, but dryness in Brazil and the Black Sea, along with some rain-induced U.S. harvest delays, offered some fundamental motivation...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.135/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.825/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3925/bushel, up $0.2725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $328.7/short ton, up $9.5 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
Market Commentary: Wheat Retraces; Soyoil Surges
Wheat was the big gainer last week but this week it gave up most of those gains. And soyoil was last week’s biggest loser but it rose to the top this week. Lean hogs also staged a major reversal after losing 1.32 percent last week and then rising 4.1 percent this week. Where there...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0175/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.12/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, down $2.4 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 6-12, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 246,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 48 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 642,100 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 18 percent from the previ...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0575/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1325/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.6/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1275/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.4/short ton, down $0.1 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Three Wheat Peculiarity
The December SRW and HRW contracts closed lower today, while December HRS added value. These three wheat contracts often move in unison, but not always. And they have many other differences that define them. HRS is typically priced higher due to its greater protein content and thus demand, espe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.125/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.06/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.5/short ton, down $2.3 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.785/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.045/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323.8/short ton, up $0...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1325/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.0625/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $322.9/short ton, down $0...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for August 30-September 5, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 474,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 542,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week and 1 pe...
Market Commentary: USDA Confirms Record Corn, Soy Yields but Ending Stocks Fall
For a WASDE report that confirmed record-large corn and soybean yields, futures’ reaction to the data was relatively muted. Those hoping for a festival of bearish numbers were disappointing as USDA moderated the impacts of larger yields with reductions in 2023/24 carryout and modest &ndas...