Recent Wheat Analysis
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers will plant around 84 million ha (Mha) which is up almost 1 Mha from last season. 20 Mha have already been planted with winter crops. Accordi...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling price set monthly by the government for sales by local flour mills. According to officials, this will not affect the local price of bread whic...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows the first signs of appreciation. This is happening amid solid demand from exporters and melting stocks. As of 1 March, Russian wheat stocks s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s grain production was down by 17 percent in 2024 and due to dry weather and security production does not look any better for 2025, all according to the latest FAO report on Syria. In 2024, wheat production was at 1.9...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Both the GBP and EUR are seen as safe-haven trades right now, which has led to appreciation in both currencies. That is making exports less attractive from the UK and Europe, which is not what the markets need as they are already facing strong competition from Russia and Ukr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupied territories of Ukraine. The total crop size showed 129.8 MMT - this is the number the Russian Statistics Agency recently reported. For re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region There is very little information on the Middle East and North Africa due to the end of Ramadan and the start of the EID holidays. Tomorrow, 2 April, is “import tariff day”. Import tariffs by the U.S. and reciprocal tar...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Continues to Face Weather Instability Argentina remains in a period of climate instability, with frequent heavy rains, strong winds, and occasional hail affecting some agricultural areas this week. Rainfall in the northern region – which had been suffering from low s...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 428,700 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the year. Rostov Oblast for example has already planted 5 percent of the planned spring crops area. Moreover, this Oblast set a new record fo...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s rainfall has increased this year after the last two/three years of drought. Water supplies are increasing behind dams and in reservoirs, but experts say it could take a few years of normal rain to get all water lev...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress reached 5.5 percentage points, bringing total harvest completion to 13 percent of the planted area, with an average yield of 8.27 MT/ha. In...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,900 MT were up noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 March 2025 Probably for the first time in recent history the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced crop production in Russia including “new territories” (occupied territories of Ukraine). The Ministry reported that during 2024, grain prod...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and Algeria are seeing swarms of desert locusts coming from Libya on current strong winds. Both countries have taken immediate action to control the insects before serious crop damage can occur. Pakistan’s wheat prod...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are experiencing similar shortages. German sources note the supply of “barn eggs” is too small for “prevailing demand”...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as the acuity of the drought in the Southern Plains becomes clearer. Overall, the trends are as follows: It was the fourth week in a row lower f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $305.9/short ton, down $1.2 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $307.1/short ton, up $6.9 from...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous year, reaching almost 84 million hectares (Mha), of which 55.8 million are spring crops. The Russian Statistics Agency reported that wheat pr...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s change in government wheat importation is said to have led to market confusion and a drop in available wheat supply. The change from GASC to Mostakbal Misr (MM) has caused major changes in buying methods, with intern...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational interest rate standing at 27.75 percent per annum. Egypt and the EU have agreed on a €90 million European Investment Bank finance program...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same month in 2024 and totaled 3.2 MMT. The EU Commission lowered its forecast of the bloc’s total grain production for 2024/25 to 255...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 4-10, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 76,500 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 483,500 MT were up 43 percent from the previous week and 11 percent f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8225/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4875/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.365/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.6/short ton, down $1.1...
Pre-Holiday Low Volume with Mixed Outcomes
There might be more life on the planet K2-18b than was seen in some of the trading pits today. While some contracts closed higher and others lower, the one consistent thing was lower pre-holiday volume across grains and oilseeds. Ahead of a three-day market hiatus, all major contracts clo...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3875/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $296.7/short ton, up $2.5 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Dmitriy Patrushev, the Vice Premier of Russia, announced that during 2025 Russian farmers will plant around 84 million ha (Mha) which is up almost 1 Mha from last season. 20 Mha have already been planted with winter crops. Accordi...
Market Commentary: Low Volume with Profit-taking on Good Weather
After moving higher the past few days and weather improving in both North and South America, there was low volume profit-taking in grains and soybeans. By contrast, livestock products continued the rebound that began in earnest late last week. While agriculture has been highlighted as a m...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.36/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $2...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Jordan increased its domestic price for wheat flour by 2.8 percent. This is the selling price set monthly by the government for sales by local flour mills. According to officials, this will not affect the local price of bread whic...
Market Commentary: Grain Bulls Take a Breather, Livestock Futures Rally on Meat Demand
The CBOT was mostly in the red on Monday, though the weaker trade was primarily from bulls taking a breather after last week’s dramatic rally. After the recent surge in corn, the soy complex, and to a lesser extent wheat futures, the markets were overextended and due for a down day. That...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.85/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $2...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Argentina Ends Currency Controls; Grain Market Adjusts The Argentine government has announced the end of currency controls on the purchase of U.S. dollars at the official exchange rate, along with a unification of the official and financial exchange rates. The move includes the eli...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Falling USD, Tariff Pause, and Technical Buying
CBOT futures and ag markets look very different today than they did just one week ago. Last Friday, ag futures were deep in the red with traders exiting positions and engaging in risk-off trade as the outlook for U.S. trade and the global economy seemed far from certain. This week, futures ende...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.9025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4275/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, WASDE, Fundamentals and Mixed Markets
Tariffs are down for many countries other than China, but they have not gone away. Yesterday’s market exuberance over the temporary pause was just a sugar high and reality returned on Thursday. The better-than-expected decline in inflation (CPI) in March wasn’t enough for outside ma...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.38/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.9/short ton, up $3.4 from ye...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 28-April 3, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 339,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 16 per...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Wednesday on Tariff Pause
The ag markets – and financial markets broadly – posted a dramatic reversal on Wednesday after President Trump hinted on social media that he might create a 90-day pause in tariffs for some countries. That news sparked a huge turnaround in markets that otherwise seemed slated for we...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.74/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4225/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $3.5 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 31 March – 4 April 2025 Russian wheat, the only de-facto exportable commodity for the moment, is relatively stable but shows the first signs of appreciation. This is happening amid solid demand from exporters and melting stocks. As of 1 March, Russian wheat stocks s...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on WASDE Prep, Oversold Conditions
CBOT ag markets found more support on Tuesday as traders prepare for Thursday’s WASDE report and as hope is emerging that various trading partners will be able to negotiate an end to the new Liberation Day tariffs. Certainly, China and the EU are not looking to make a deal, and that is a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9275/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $291/short ton, up $2.6 from yester...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Syria’s grain production was down by 17 percent in 2024 and due to dry weather and security production does not look any better for 2025, all according to the latest FAO report on Syria. In 2024, wheat production was at 1.9...
Market Commentary: Inspections, Tariffs and VIX Was the Day’s Fix
Soybeans and wheat followed the overnight and opened higher, with corn briefly above zero. Supportive early in the session were export inspections for last week where corn and soybeans came down only slightly from last week, with a modest drop for wheat. The tariff announcement came too late fo...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.83/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, up $5.3 from yest...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Both the GBP and EUR are seen as safe-haven trades right now, which has led to appreciation in both currencies. That is making exports less attractive from the UK and Europe, which is not what the markets need as they are already facing strong competition from Russia and Ukr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ag markets and traders’ position in them look dramatically different now than they did last Tuesday, the CFTC’s weekly reporting deadline. On Wednesday after the market close, President Trump announced a suite of sweeping tariffs against literally every country in the world, whi...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.77/bushel, down $0.345 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $283.1/short ton, down $4.9 fro...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $288/short ton, up $0.8 fro...
Market Commentary: Tariffs on, Risk off
The market opened today as it had closed from the previous night’s session, with double digit declines in many contracts. An hour into today’s session, first soymeal, then corn, then HRW and hogs turned green. Many then wobbled both sides of unchanged. There was a new contract...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 21-27, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 340,000 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 40 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 499,600 MT were up 17 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from th...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $287.2/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Liberation Day Pressures Grains but Cattle Rally to New Highs
President Trump declared 2 April as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, which is funny because the policies have nothing to do with liberating trade. That contradiction was not lost on the grain markets, which are facing retaliatory tariffs from major import markets, and futures...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture once again announced revised figures for the 2024 crop including occupied territories of Ukraine. The total crop size showed 129.8 MMT - this is the number the Russian Statistics Agency recently reported. For re...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains After USDA Reports; Soyoil Leads Soy Complex Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher following the all-important Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports with traders looking to price in emerging factors now that USDA’s thoughts on the acreage situation are known. For corn, the emerging factors are dryness in Brazil that could start to thr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3425/bushel, up $0.195 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, down $0.4 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region There is very little information on the Middle East and North Africa due to the end of Ramadan and the start of the EID holidays. Tomorrow, 2 April, is “import tariff day”. Import tariffs by the U.S. and reciprocal tar...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5725/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $292.7/short ton, down $0.8 f...
Market Commentary: Big Day for USDA Data; Grains Rise While Soy Suffers
The big news in commodity markets Monday was the release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, the former of which offered the agency’s first detailed assessment of 2025 acreage. The report featured the expected increase in corn area and decrease in soybean plant...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Continues to Face Weather Instability Argentina remains in a period of climate instability, with frequent heavy rains, strong winds, and occasional hail affecting some agricultural areas this week. Rainfall in the northern region – which had been suffering from low s...
Grain Stocks Report Charts
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and analysis of the latest USDA Grain Stocks data for key commodities. The data is, of course, taken from the quarterly Grain Stocks report. WPI recently completed an expansion of the analysis and welcomes any feedback/suggestions. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed continued selling activity from managed money funds in the grain and oilseed sector. The action was expected, given the weakness in futures over the past few weeks and funds’ positions as of last Tuesday were in line with expectations. In the soy complex,...
Market Commentary: Tariffs and Monday’s Reports Cause Volatility
It was all red this morning, except of course soyoil. Even lean hog futures were negative despite the relatively bullish USDA Hogs & Pigs report after the close yesterday. However, by the close today, corn and soybeans had flipped back into the green. Still, on the whole, 60 percent of our...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5325/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.2825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.23/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 14-20, 2025. Wheat: Net sales of 100,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 428,700 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week, but...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.32/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1675/bushel, up $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $294.5/short ton, up $0.9 fr...
Market Commentary: Speculating About Monday
Futures traded bearishly mixed. The start of the trade war, the possible hiatus in the Ukraine war, static weather conditions, and major USDA reports to be issued on Monday all keep traders in a cautious position. Today’s USDA Export Sales report covering last week’s activity...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall on Acreage, Stocks Expectations; Soyoil Scores Bullish Breakout
The CBOT bears were in control of markets again on Wednesday and drove corn and wheat futures lower with significant technical developments. Fresh news remains light but the justification for the day’s declines were expectations for USDA to report expanded corn area and larger wheat stock...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5125/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.6/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17 – 21 March 2025 Russian farmers started planting and fertilizing winter crops which is rather early for this time of the year. Rostov Oblast for example has already planted 5 percent of the planned spring crops area. Moreover, this Oblast set a new record fo...
Market Commentary: Bears in Control of Grains; Cattle Futures Reclaim Early Losses
Bears were in control of the CBOT on Tuesday and sent corn, soybeans, and wheat all lower with several significant technical developments. Fresh fundamental news was hard to find for the day and that certainly contributed to the day’s weakness. Funds were solid net sellers for the second...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5775/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4325/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco’s rainfall has increased this year after the last two/three years of drought. Water supplies are increasing behind dams and in reservoirs, but experts say it could take a few years of normal rain to get all water lev...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate; Cattle Follow Through on Bearish Reversal
The CBOT saw a mostly quiet day to start the week with grains and the oilseed complex trading mostly sideways as traders await shifts in demand or any updates on the trade policy front. Markets are in a holding pattern right now with the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere planting effort still a few...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.645/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.6/short ton, down $2.7...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Market Thanks to a week of minimal rainfall across Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest is gaining momentum. Weekly progress reached 5.5 percentage points, bringing total harvest completion to 13 percent of the planted area, with an average yield of 8.27 MT/ha. In...
Market Commentary: Mixed Day but a Hot CoF Report After the Close
The fundamentals are unchanged but there is a cloud overhead due to the impending tariff war and the headwinds that portends. So, the market today and all week is a matter of treading water until more definitive cues emerge. In fact, today was so mixed that soybeans and soyoil fell even as typi...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6425/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5825/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0975/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.3/short ton, up $3.2...
Market Commentary: Export Sales, Weather Mix the Markets
Wheat was the ball and chain while corn was the balloon in today’s trading. The weekly USDA Export Sales report from USDA was notable for wheat with washouts in old crop sales leading to a marketing year low, but new crop sales going blockbuster as Guatemala, Mexico and Panama all sought...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 7-13, 2025 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 248,800 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 470,900 MT were up noticeably from the prev...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5725/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.1/short ton, down $0.6 fro...
Market Commentary: U.S., Paris Wheat Diverge; Corn Consolidates; New Highs for Cattle
Except for the wheat market, the CBOT and CME largely continued their existing trends on Wednesday. Wheat futures offered perhaps the most interesting trade as HRW futures reversed course from their recent weather-induced rally and pulled back. The spot KCBT contract settled below $6.00, which...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.635/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0825/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $297.7/short ton, down $2.2...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10 – 14 March 2025 Probably for the first time in recent history the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced crop production in Russia including “new territories” (occupied territories of Ukraine). The Ministry reported that during 2024, grain prod...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Cattle Rally and Form Reversal
Once again, the big action in the ag futures markets was in the cattle markets, where futures hit new contract and all-time highs for the second straight day. Unexpected strength in the physical cattle and beef markets has propelled futures higher this week, with funds rapidly expanding already...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5875/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.65/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1275/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.9/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and Algeria are seeing swarms of desert locusts coming from Libya on current strong winds. Both countries have taken immediate action to control the insects before serious crop damage can occur. Pakistan’s wheat prod...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Dry Plains Weather; Cattle Futures Hit New Records
The CBOT saw wheat lead the way higher as traders are increasingly concerned about dry weather in the U.S. Southern Plains, as well as parts of the Black Sea. That strength spilled over into corn and soybeans a little bit, but neither of those markets could sustain any meaningful rallies. Fresh...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.61/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.685/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.155/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.3/short ton, down $1.6 from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egg shortages and rising prices are not just a feature of U.S. agriculture right now, German and northern European markets broadly are experiencing similar shortages. German sources note the supply of “barn eggs” is too small for “prevailing demand”...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week’s CFTC report showed some interesting an unexpected trends. First, despite the technical bounce in corn futures, funds cut 36 percent of their long (74,000 contracts) and are now long just 132,000 contracts, or less than half of their position just a few weeks ago. That rapid li...
Market Commentary: Week of Turmoil, Uncertainty, but Not All Dark
There was little in terms of new fundamentals today, and on generally lower volume the board saw mixed trading and results. It was a big week for HRW as the acuity of the drought in the Southern Plains becomes clearer. Overall, the trends are as follows: It was the fourth week in a row lower f...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.16/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $305.9/short ton, down $1.2 f...
Market Commentary: Tariffs, Inflation, Production, and a Higher Market
The market is facing many knowns and unknowns. How President Trump’s tariff war will proceed is top among the unknowns, though it cannot be good until it is over. Now the President is threatening 200 percent tariffs on EU wines and liquor if Brussels does not drop its retaliatory duty on...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6525/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $307.1/short ton, up $6.9 from...
Market Commentary: Delayed WASDE Reaction, EU Retaliates, Feeder Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday as the lack of big changes in the March WASDE effectively amounted to ammunition for bears. Bull markets need to be fed a steady diet of news, and the lack of such inputs from the WASDE gave bears an advantage for the day. Soybeans and corn were the market...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6075/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.005/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, down $1...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3 – 7 March 2025 The Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts this year's total planted area to be higher than the previous year, reaching almost 84 million hectares (Mha), of which 55.8 million are spring crops. The Russian Statistics Agency reported that wheat pr...
Markets Fall on WASDE and Trade War
Today’s March USDA WASDE report did nothing to temper the bearish mood in both commodity and equity markets. Volume was light ahead of the WASDE release and stayed that way. While corn and soybeans traded mostly in the green ahead of the report, wheat had no reason to be bullish. There wa...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.7025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, dow...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s change in government wheat importation is said to have led to market confusion and a drop in available wheat supply. The change from GASC to Mostakbal Misr (MM) has caused major changes in buying methods, with intern...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.72/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.625/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.14/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $302.3/short ton, down $2.1 from...
Market Commentary: Retaliatory Tariffs and Pre-WASDE Positioning Drive CBOT
Pre-WASDE positioning and reactions to various tariffs and retaliatory tariffs drove much of the market’s action on Monday. The big news was China’s retaliatory tariffs against Canadian rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, which will be levied at 100 percent of product value. That...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat In February, rainfall in Argentina’s core agricultural region averaged 222 mm, nearly double the 30-year historical average for the month, which ranges from 100–140 mm from west to east. March began with a similar trend, bringing heavy rains across the country, particula...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money funds to be aggressive net sellers across the ag complex due to tariff concerns, widespread “risk off” trade, and weak technical conditions. The selling was most pronounced in corn futures, where funds shed 38 percent of a...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.6925/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5125/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.25/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.4/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Partial Recovery on Slim News and Low Volume
After reacting to a fire hose of developments earlier this week, ag futures had little new fundamental input today except a brief hiatus in the trade war. Volume was quite low in grains, though it was higher in cattle where gains were sharp this week. Both corn and soybeans recovered most of th...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tariff Day
Despite mostly lower markets in the overnight, the open this morning was slightly in the green but moved strongly higher after the Trump Administration announced a one-month reprieve on tariffs on Mexico, and possibly on Canada as well. Most contracts have now experienced a second day higher. S...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.64/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.54/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2725/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $304.9/short ton, up $5.1 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 21-27, 2025 Wheat: Net sales of 338,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 26 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 380,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 5 perce...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4825/bushel, up $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1175/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $299.8/short ton, up $6.3 fr...
Signals of Easing Tariff Plans Lift CBOT Off Recent Lows
CBOT markets were higher after hints of tariff relief for Canada and Mexico emerged from Washington, D.C. Tuesday night and early Wednesday. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said President Trump was “open” to additional tariff exemptions beyond the pause in levies for auto...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24 – 28 February 2025 During the last week of February, the market remained bullish with some regional deviations. Milling wheat remained bullish pulling up feed wheat and milling rye which is in short supply as well. And it is no wonder as during 2024 rye crop acre...
Market Commentary: CBOT Extends Selloff on Retaliatory Tariffs
The CBOT saw aggressive selling pressure on Tuesday after China, Canada, and Mexico announced retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, including food and agricultural products. Markets dropped sharply in early trade, but a few, most notably corn, saw strength develop on “sell the rumor,...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $293.5/short ton, down $4.5...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Central Bank has left interest rates unchanged, with the main operational interest rate standing at 27.75 percent per annum. Egypt and the EU have agreed on a €90 million European Investment Bank finance program...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Corn and Wheat Market Update The central and southern regions of Argentina’s agricultural area have received abundant rainfall in recent weeks, improving water conditions for crops and replenishing soil moisture throughout the profile. As a result, except for the norther...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s all-grain exports are down 1 percent YTD through February at 29 MMT. February shipments fell 40 percent from the same month in 2024 and totaled 3.2 MMT. The EU Commission lowered its forecast of the bloc’s total grain production for 2024/25 to 255...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.5625/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.4775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.115/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $298/short ton, down $2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Last week, managed money funds were primarily net sellers across the ag space but overall volumes were relatively muted. The selling was most consistent and perhaps most pronounced in the soy complex, where funds shed 30 percent (9,900 contracts) of their dwindling soybean longs and added 13 pe...
Market Commentary: Selling on the Fact in a Brutal Week
After presidential tariff notices, a bearish USDA outlook report, improved South American weather, and a softening economy, the only major agricultural futures contract to end the week on gains were nearby meal and feeder cattle. The feeder cattle contract contrasts with live cattle, which has...
WPI 2025/26 Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Outlook
Following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and the release of the agency’s initial 2025/26 outlooks, WPI has updated our major crop forecasts for the coming marketing year as well. Our latest model runs indicate a more bearish outlook for corn as ending stocks are forecast to incr...
Summary of Futures
May 25 Corn closed at $4.695/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Wheat closed at $5.5575/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2575/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 25 Soymeal closed at $300.2/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: More Corn, Lower Prices
USDA’s annual Outlook conference started today, and it held no surprises by affirming the likely outcome of the current corn/soybean price ratio and tighter overall farm income. Farmers will plant more corn, netting record production, causing ending stocks to grow and the price to...