Christmas Eve Policy Potpourri
Ship Subsidies: The SHIPS for America Act has been introduced in the U.S. Congress and is intended to boost the number of U.S. built ships. Currently, China builds over half the world’s ships, and over 90 percent are constructed in just three countries (China, South Korea, Japan). The U.S. buil...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S. Congress passed a one-year extension of the farm bill. Farm groups were disappointed for a number of reasons, including the fact that expa...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropriations bill that extends the existing baseline level of funding. Under the terms of a previous CR passed on 25 September, the federal govern...
Farm Aid Revived; New Economy versus Old; UPF Discussion
Farm Aid RevivedThe latest Monthly Monitor of agricultural economists showed that 56 percent believe the sector is already in a recession and a whopping 81 percent believe it is on the brink of a recession. The government’s stopgap bill to keep the government funded through March included $10 b...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and she appears to have run away from a fight. But her resignation raises the question of how Canada and Mexico will handle Mr. Trump. Both countr...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes into effect, which could have negative impacts on commodity markets. Lawmakers are still working to finalize a stopgap funding bill that w...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. The U.S. share of global agricultural trade has fallen by two-thirds. Major importers have typically chafed under their dependence upon foreig...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) on the nomination of RFK, Jr.; and the Senate Agriculture Committee on the nomination of Brooke Rollins. Th...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and static policy prescriptions, or it could amount to nothing more than a bunch of four-year-olds attempting to play soccer. The DNI nominee qu...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is arguably the most powerful committee in the House. The third and fourth ranking Republicans, Representatives Bob Latta of Ohio and Brett Guthr...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and inadequate defense spending, its leaders talk ready to get tough with Donald Trump. Some suggest preempting Trump tariffs by negotiating an e...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 percent of two-way trade. The agreement has further procedural hurdles to overcome. France leads an effort to construct a blocking minority of...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates a $4 trillion budget hole, and reducing the size of government. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk an...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative days left and government funding set to expire on 20 December. And the Farm Bill is set to expire on 31 December unless an extension can be...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become isolationist. This framing is disputed by Stewart Paterson at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation. He notes that trade flows show the opp...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-processing, or mega farms, or seed oils, is going to be both fun and excruciating to watch. The sheer mass of the food-sector battleship should b...
USTR Nominee; Changing Eating Habits
USTR NomineeTariffs are President-Elect Trumps most repeated policy focus but his selection of the next U.S. Trade Representative came nearly last. At least Jamieson Greer is a somewhat known quantity. World Trade Online says, “Stakeholders see what they want to see in Greer as USTR.” Having se...
Channeling Hamilton; Gastronationalism Gone Awry; Science Reverts to Nonpartisan; Black Friday Deals
Channeling HamiltonAlexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, encouraged the Tariff Act of 1789, the Tariff Act of 1790, and the Tariff Act of 1792. He used tariffs to fund the government and protect domestic industries from British exports. President-elect Trump has pledged...
Brooke Rollins: New Ag Secretary Pick
During the Presidential campaign, one topic on which Donad Trump was introspective was on his staff and cabinet appointments. He mentioned more than once on the campaign trail that getting the “right people” in jobs was one area in which he would focus the second time around. Typically Trump me...
Most Googled; Maladministration; Tough Love
Most GoogledOn Saturday, 23 November, the most Googled thing for those in U.S. agriculture policy circles was Brooke Rollins. Her name had not been amongst the 15 or so possible names mentioned in media reports to head USDA. A prominent name added to the list late last week was former U.S...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Farm Bill Deficiencies; Transatlantic Tensions; GMO Correction
Farm Bill DeficienciesU.S. Senate Democrats have finally laid down their marker in a bicameral negotiation over a farm bill renewal. In it, Democrats conceded to a House Republican initiative to double spending on export promotion programs. However, they did not accept the Republican position t...
Agriculture Committees in the 119th Congress
With the Republicans maintaining control of the House, Representative G.T. Thompson (R-PA) will retain the gavel as committee chairman, unless he is nominated for Secretary of Agriculture by President-elect Trump. Thompson’s name has been mentioned more frequently as of late as a potential nomi...
RFK, Jr. Equals Opportunity; Quarter Century of GMO’s
RFK, Jr. Equals OpportunityRobert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to eliminate processed foods, artificial colorings, chemicals, and other broadly named boogeymen. He and his ilk are social media trolls that disparage the regulated and regulators alike, fabricating conspiracy theories about Big Food want...
McSustainability Through Feed Efficiency
McDonalds has entered the sustainability space by partnering with Syngenta and paying cattle producers to use Syngenta’s Enogen Trait corn to improve feed efficiency. Enogen corn contains an enzyme, alpha amylase. This enzyme has been added during the ethanol production process to induce starch...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts. The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...
Trump’s Tariff Plan; Whither Europe; RTO Beats WFH
Trump’s Tariff PlanFew things attract more speculation than how President-Elect Donald Trump will model his plan to increase tariffs on imports. Some economists have taken his most exaggerated claims and predict they will cause slower economic growth and higher inflation. At least one advisor s...
Political Landscape Taking Shape
After the 2024 elections, the Republicans look to have taken control of Congress, along with a Trump victory, providing a Republican triple sweep. The Senate GOP majority is 53 to 47; and the House GOP majority is still TBD. However, as of today, the Republicans have secured 215 seats, and Demo...
Deep Bench to Fight RFK; China Market Risk; Thankless Job
Deep Bench to Fight RFKBeing the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is usually a pretty good job. It involves doling out billions of dollars, the constituency is dominated by courteous country people, and controversies tend to be minor. The person serving the longest in any Cabinet position was Jame...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
Who Might Be the Next Ag Secretary?
As most Presidents-elect do, former President and President-elect Donald Trump has named his new White House Chief of Staff as his first appointment. It is Susi S. Wiles. Wiles was the co-manager of Trump’s 2024 campaign, and also was a key strategist focused on Florida in his 2016 and 2020 cam...
Transatlantic Trade War; Traders Beat Pollsters; Transatlantic Lesson
Transatlantic Trade WarU.S. equity markets rose yesterday on news of Donald Trump’s victory, while shares in Europe fell. The EU is America’s biggest trading partner and Trump promises tariffs. EU officials are strategizing on how to deal with a Trump presidency, with some urging cooperation, a...
The Day After
The political establishment in Washington is stunned following yesterday's rout by Donald Trump and the Republicans. The Democrats’ arch nemesis not only survived everything they threw at him, but he also took an increasing share of the minority voting block that they claimed as their own. It w...
Tax Policy Outlook Post Election
After the votes are fully counted, as a new Administration forms, and Congress organizes, WPI will take a deeper look into the policy implications of today’s election. From today’s point of view, unless this election is an unexpected blowout (countering polling data that shows it neck and neck...
EU Confirmation Hearings; Japanese Independence; Lemonades out of Lemons; Border War
EU Confirmation HearingsIn a few months, it will be the turn of either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris’s cabinet nominees to seek confirmation by the legislature but this week it is Europe’s Commission designates confronting the hurdle of the European Parliament (EP). Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...
Transatlantic Inverse; Farm Bill Chances
Transatlantic InverseDepending on tomorrow’s election outcome, American businesses will either be saddled with more taxes, regulations, and attacks on consolidation, or be hit with higher import tariffs and maybe the goofy ideas of people like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. By contrast, Europe has now...
State Directed Meat; Living Space
State Directed MeatUSDA has been issuing loans and grants to startup livestock businesses with the goal of diversifying the industry, providing producers with more options, and lowering the price of meat. Now Pure Prairie Poultry of Minnesota, a beneficiary of $38.7 million in loan guarantees a...
Misdirected Fire; Over-Capacity
Misdirected FireThe Kamala Harris campaign is frustrated that the economy is hot, inflation has dissipated to just 2.4 percent, and yet voters are not feeling it. Politicians learned long ago to never tell the voters they are wrong and have misperceptions. Consequently, she has been acknowledgi...
Interest Rate Outlook
The Fed meets next week, the day after the election. It looks likely there will be a rate cut again for the second time in as many meetings. The federal funds futures market is pricing in a 95.4 percent probability of a cut. At the September meeting, Fed members signaled another 50 basis point...
Post-Election Transatlantic
The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...
Newsom for President; Fake Meat Lacks Standing
Newsome for PresidentUntil this past Friday, U.S. ethanol producers feared that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) might make an effort to limit the marketing of their products in the Golden State. Now they are singing in the streets as California Governor Gavin Newsom instructed CARB to...
RFK Jr Role in a Potential Trump Admin Worrying Aggies
With the election one week from tomorrow, many aggies are turning their attention to the probable role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a Trump Administration should Trump win the election. Over the last week, this is literally the biggest topic of conversation among this analyst’s contacts and sour...
BRICS Grain Exchange; Transatlantic Gaslighting
BRICS Grain ExchangeVladmir Putin used his BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia to formally suggest the creation of a grain exchange by the bloc of countries. He said such an exchange could later be expanded to other products and that it would " contribute to the formation of fair and predictable...
Inflation Disconnect; Economic Opinions
Inflation DisconnectEconomists including those at the Federal Reserve use so-called core inflation when assessing the level of rising prices in the economy. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices since they are considered more volatile, and less directly impacted by the Fed’s monetary p...
U.S. Dietary Guidelines: Booze and Junk Food
Every five years, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, issued by USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are updated. The new guidelines will be issued next year for 2025-2030. This guidance provides advice on what to eat and drink to meet nutrient needs, promote health, and...
Policy Shortz
U.S. – EU Reset: The transatlantic relationship must be reset after the upcoming election. Brussels produced a state-by-state report on Europe’s trade and investment engagement to help set the environment. U.S. technology firms argue it is ludicrous for Europe to think it can be competitive in...
Biggest Monopoly; Aggies Challenge Trump; Food Safety Risks and Perceptions
Biggest MonopolyReflecting voter concerns about food inflation, both Harris and Trump are attacking the food system and implying concerns about monopoly power. But no industry is as monopolistic as politics where consumer choice is often limited to just two parties. Voters are near evenly split...
State Control of Markets – Russia; State Control of Markets – U.S
State Control of MarketsRussia’s agriculture ministry recently “suggested” that grain exporters not sell wheat internationally below the minimum price of $250/MT FOB. The minimum price approach is less clumsy than export quotas but is a harder stop than Moscow’ use of export taxes to try and ma...
Asymmetric on Tariffs
Most economists are clear in describing tariffs as a border tax. Their impacts include increasing costs on consumers and reducing trade, and thus self-harming a nation’s economic well-being. Yet, it is difficult to identify a nation that doesn’t use tariffs, and most utilize them more than the...
Farm Subsidies on the March
Subsidies can increase output and there are many ways to subsidize an industry, but that doesn’t mean that countries should do it. Cost of Production: The EU badly wants to become self-sufficient in plant protein. More than four decades ago Europe lost a dispute settlement cas...
Politics: Will 2024 Election Yield an Unprecedented Triple Flip?
The 2024 election is three weeks from tomorrow. This cycle has been unusual. The campaign started as a Biden versus Trump rematch of the 2020 campaign, the first such rematch since 1956 (only the seventh time in history and only the second time since 1900). However, President Biden stepped down...
Policy Potpourri
Good Many Organisms: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded this week to scientists at Google DeepMind using AI to predict the structure of proteins and inventing new ones. Capitaslizing on the opportunities, Ginkgo Bioworks announced that it would make available to researchers its API that u...
War on Food Companies; Holding Back the Future
War on Food Companies Market skeptics like U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) have stepped up their attack on food companies by accusing them of price gouging by “squeezing profits out of consumers” through shrinkflation and avoiding federal taxes. They charge that comp...
USDA Announces Cattle Price Discovery Rule
Today, the Biden Administration issued an Advanced Notice of Public Rulemaking (ANPR) on Price Discovery and Transparency in Markets for Fed Cattle. This is the fifth livestock and poultry market regulation put forth under the Packers and Stockyards Act (P&SA) and under the Biden Executive...
Christmas Eve Policy Potpourri
Ship Subsidies: The SHIPS for America Act has been introduced in the U.S. Congress and is intended to boost the number of U.S. built ships. Currently, China builds over half the world’s ships, and over 90 percent are constructed in just three countries (China, South Korea, Japan). The U.S. buil...
Two Big Things; Trumpenomics
Two Big ThingsJust days before Christmas 2024, two big things happened that impact U.S. agriculture. On their way home for the holidays, members of the U.S. Congress passed a one-year extension of the farm bill. Farm groups were disappointed for a number of reasons, including the fact that expa...
Government Shutdown Averted; Process Provides Insights into 2025 Policy Making
A government shutdown was averted after frenetic eleventh-hour action last week in Congress to pass a continuing resolution, which is a short-term appropriations bill that extends the existing baseline level of funding. Under the terms of a previous CR passed on 25 September, the federal govern...
Farm Aid Revived; New Economy versus Old; UPF Discussion
Farm Aid RevivedThe latest Monthly Monitor of agricultural economists showed that 56 percent believe the sector is already in a recession and a whopping 81 percent believe it is on the brink of a recession. The government’s stopgap bill to keep the government funded through March included $10 b...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
Tear it Up II; Splitting GM Wheat; DOFE
Tear it Up IICanada’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned and President-elect Donald Trump is being blamed. That is an over-simplification and she appears to have run away from a fight. But her resignation raises the question of how Canada and Mexico will handle Mr. Trump. Both countr...
Lame Duck Docket: Appropriations, Farm Bill and Ag Related National Defense Authorization Provisions
As of today, Congress has four days until government funding expires, and 15 days to pass a farm bill extension before (31 December) permanent law goes into effect, which could have negative impacts on commodity markets. Lawmakers are still working to finalize a stopgap funding bill that w...
Trump’s War on American Agriculture
American agriculture is already facing a less affluent future. Commodity prices have softened, and South America now dominates the global export market. The U.S. share of global agricultural trade has fallen by two-thirds. Major importers have typically chafed under their dependence upon foreig...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Food Fight Ahead; UPF Boogeyman
Food Fight AheadThere are two committee confirmation hearings that aggies will be watching intently early next year: the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor & Pensions (HELP) on the nomination of RFK, Jr.; and the Senate Agriculture Committee on the nomination of Brooke Rollins. Th...
Hunger Games; Power of Deregulation
Hunger GamesDonald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are unconventional, far more so than in his first term as president. It could result in a shakeup of staid and static policy prescriptions, or it could amount to nothing more than a bunch of four-year-olds attempting to play soccer. The DNI nominee qu...
New Leadership for Congressional Energy Committees
With the retirement from Congress of House Energy and Commerce (HEC) Committee chair Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), the gavel was up for grabs in what is arguably the most powerful committee in the House. The third and fourth ranking Republicans, Representatives Bob Latta of Ohio and Brett Guthr...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
EU’s Approach to Trump; Ignoring FTA’s; Laying the Trap
EU’s Approach to TrumpAs Europe’s economy founders under a tax and regulate approach, and its security becomes increasingly threatened by appeasement and inadequate defense spending, its leaders talk ready to get tough with Donald Trump. Some suggest preempting Trump tariffs by negotiating an e...
Long Slow Process for 45Z Still Ongoing
Part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act was section 45Z, the Clean Fuels Production Credit. It is in effect from 1 January 2025 through 31 December 2027. At the time, this provision was hailed as a potential game changer for biofuels and feedstock production. The problem is guidance for qualif...
EU-Mercosur Fallout; Get Your Own; WTO Ignored
EU-Mercosur FalloutThe EU and Mercosur reached agreement on a quarter century effort to have a free trade agreement. Tariffs will be removed on over 90 percent of two-way trade. The agreement has further procedural hurdles to overcome. France leads an effort to construct a blocking minority of...
Squaring Budget and Taxes; Trade War; F&V Self-Destruction
Squaring Budget and TaxesU.S. agricultural spending could get squeezed between the incoming Trump Administration’s desire to extend tax cuts, which creates a $4 trillion budget hole, and reducing the size of government. The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk an...
Reorganizing in Congress – Potential Moves Among Aggies
Congress will return to Washington this week to kick off the post-election lame duck session of Congress. The docket is busy with only 12 joint legislative days left and government funding set to expire on 20 December. And the Farm Bill is set to expire on 31 December unless an extension can be...
Trade Abusers; Working Class Appeals; Healthy Elites
Trade AbusersThe West blames China for over-production but the global narrative is that China has embraced global trade and it is the U.S. that has become isolationist. This framing is disputed by Stewart Paterson at the Singapore-based Hinrich Foundation. He notes that trade flows show the opp...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Food versus Populism; Food in Perspective; Beauty of the Algorithm; Tariffs as Panacea
Food versus PopulismPresident-elect Donald Trump’s selection of RFK, Jr. to oversee a food system that he wants to remake without chemicals and ultra-processing, or mega farms, or seed oils, is going to be both fun and excruciating to watch. The sheer mass of the food-sector battleship should b...
USTR Nominee; Changing Eating Habits
USTR NomineeTariffs are President-Elect Trumps most repeated policy focus but his selection of the next U.S. Trade Representative came nearly last. At least Jamieson Greer is a somewhat known quantity. World Trade Online says, “Stakeholders see what they want to see in Greer as USTR.” Having se...
Channeling Hamilton; Gastronationalism Gone Awry; Science Reverts to Nonpartisan; Black Friday Deals
Channeling HamiltonAlexander Hamilton, the first U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, encouraged the Tariff Act of 1789, the Tariff Act of 1790, and the Tariff Act of 1792. He used tariffs to fund the government and protect domestic industries from British exports. President-elect Trump has pledged...
Brooke Rollins: New Ag Secretary Pick
During the Presidential campaign, one topic on which Donad Trump was introspective was on his staff and cabinet appointments. He mentioned more than once on the campaign trail that getting the “right people” in jobs was one area in which he would focus the second time around. Typically Trump me...
Most Googled; Maladministration; Tough Love
Most GoogledOn Saturday, 23 November, the most Googled thing for those in U.S. agriculture policy circles was Brooke Rollins. Her name had not been amongst the 15 or so possible names mentioned in media reports to head USDA. A prominent name added to the list late last week was former U.S...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Farm Bill Deficiencies; Transatlantic Tensions; GMO Correction
Farm Bill DeficienciesU.S. Senate Democrats have finally laid down their marker in a bicameral negotiation over a farm bill renewal. In it, Democrats conceded to a House Republican initiative to double spending on export promotion programs. However, they did not accept the Republican position t...
Agriculture Committees in the 119th Congress
With the Republicans maintaining control of the House, Representative G.T. Thompson (R-PA) will retain the gavel as committee chairman, unless he is nominated for Secretary of Agriculture by President-elect Trump. Thompson’s name has been mentioned more frequently as of late as a potential nomi...
RFK, Jr. Equals Opportunity; Quarter Century of GMO’s
RFK, Jr. Equals OpportunityRobert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to eliminate processed foods, artificial colorings, chemicals, and other broadly named boogeymen. He and his ilk are social media trolls that disparage the regulated and regulators alike, fabricating conspiracy theories about Big Food want...
McSustainability Through Feed Efficiency
McDonalds has entered the sustainability space by partnering with Syngenta and paying cattle producers to use Syngenta’s Enogen Trait corn to improve feed efficiency. Enogen corn contains an enzyme, alpha amylase. This enzyme has been added during the ethanol production process to induce starch...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts. The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...
Trump’s Tariff Plan; Whither Europe; RTO Beats WFH
Trump’s Tariff PlanFew things attract more speculation than how President-Elect Donald Trump will model his plan to increase tariffs on imports. Some economists have taken his most exaggerated claims and predict they will cause slower economic growth and higher inflation. At least one advisor s...
Political Landscape Taking Shape
After the 2024 elections, the Republicans look to have taken control of Congress, along with a Trump victory, providing a Republican triple sweep. The Senate GOP majority is 53 to 47; and the House GOP majority is still TBD. However, as of today, the Republicans have secured 215 seats, and Demo...
Deep Bench to Fight RFK; China Market Risk; Thankless Job
Deep Bench to Fight RFKBeing the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is usually a pretty good job. It involves doling out billions of dollars, the constituency is dominated by courteous country people, and controversies tend to be minor. The person serving the longest in any Cabinet position was Jame...
Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation
As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...
Who Might Be the Next Ag Secretary?
As most Presidents-elect do, former President and President-elect Donald Trump has named his new White House Chief of Staff as his first appointment. It is Susi S. Wiles. Wiles was the co-manager of Trump’s 2024 campaign, and also was a key strategist focused on Florida in his 2016 and 2020 cam...
Transatlantic Trade War; Traders Beat Pollsters; Transatlantic Lesson
Transatlantic Trade WarU.S. equity markets rose yesterday on news of Donald Trump’s victory, while shares in Europe fell. The EU is America’s biggest trading partner and Trump promises tariffs. EU officials are strategizing on how to deal with a Trump presidency, with some urging cooperation, a...
The Day After
The political establishment in Washington is stunned following yesterday's rout by Donald Trump and the Republicans. The Democrats’ arch nemesis not only survived everything they threw at him, but he also took an increasing share of the minority voting block that they claimed as their own. It w...
Tax Policy Outlook Post Election
After the votes are fully counted, as a new Administration forms, and Congress organizes, WPI will take a deeper look into the policy implications of today’s election. From today’s point of view, unless this election is an unexpected blowout (countering polling data that shows it neck and neck...
EU Confirmation Hearings; Japanese Independence; Lemonades out of Lemons; Border War
EU Confirmation HearingsIn a few months, it will be the turn of either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris’s cabinet nominees to seek confirmation by the legislature but this week it is Europe’s Commission designates confronting the hurdle of the European Parliament (EP). Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner...
Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025
Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...
Transatlantic Inverse; Farm Bill Chances
Transatlantic InverseDepending on tomorrow’s election outcome, American businesses will either be saddled with more taxes, regulations, and attacks on consolidation, or be hit with higher import tariffs and maybe the goofy ideas of people like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. By contrast, Europe has now...
State Directed Meat; Living Space
State Directed MeatUSDA has been issuing loans and grants to startup livestock businesses with the goal of diversifying the industry, providing producers with more options, and lowering the price of meat. Now Pure Prairie Poultry of Minnesota, a beneficiary of $38.7 million in loan guarantees a...
Misdirected Fire; Over-Capacity
Misdirected FireThe Kamala Harris campaign is frustrated that the economy is hot, inflation has dissipated to just 2.4 percent, and yet voters are not feeling it. Politicians learned long ago to never tell the voters they are wrong and have misperceptions. Consequently, she has been acknowledgi...
Interest Rate Outlook
The Fed meets next week, the day after the election. It looks likely there will be a rate cut again for the second time in as many meetings. The federal funds futures market is pricing in a 95.4 percent probability of a cut. At the September meeting, Fed members signaled another 50 basis point...
Post-Election Transatlantic
The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...
Newsom for President; Fake Meat Lacks Standing
Newsome for PresidentUntil this past Friday, U.S. ethanol producers feared that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) might make an effort to limit the marketing of their products in the Golden State. Now they are singing in the streets as California Governor Gavin Newsom instructed CARB to...
RFK Jr Role in a Potential Trump Admin Worrying Aggies
With the election one week from tomorrow, many aggies are turning their attention to the probable role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a Trump Administration should Trump win the election. Over the last week, this is literally the biggest topic of conversation among this analyst’s contacts and sour...
BRICS Grain Exchange; Transatlantic Gaslighting
BRICS Grain ExchangeVladmir Putin used his BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia to formally suggest the creation of a grain exchange by the bloc of countries. He said such an exchange could later be expanded to other products and that it would " contribute to the formation of fair and predictable...
Inflation Disconnect; Economic Opinions
Inflation DisconnectEconomists including those at the Federal Reserve use so-called core inflation when assessing the level of rising prices in the economy. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices since they are considered more volatile, and less directly impacted by the Fed’s monetary p...
U.S. Dietary Guidelines: Booze and Junk Food
Every five years, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, issued by USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are updated. The new guidelines will be issued next year for 2025-2030. This guidance provides advice on what to eat and drink to meet nutrient needs, promote health, and...
Policy Shortz
U.S. – EU Reset: The transatlantic relationship must be reset after the upcoming election. Brussels produced a state-by-state report on Europe’s trade and investment engagement to help set the environment. U.S. technology firms argue it is ludicrous for Europe to think it can be competitive in...
Biggest Monopoly; Aggies Challenge Trump; Food Safety Risks and Perceptions
Biggest MonopolyReflecting voter concerns about food inflation, both Harris and Trump are attacking the food system and implying concerns about monopoly power. But no industry is as monopolistic as politics where consumer choice is often limited to just two parties. Voters are near evenly split...
State Control of Markets – Russia; State Control of Markets – U.S
State Control of MarketsRussia’s agriculture ministry recently “suggested” that grain exporters not sell wheat internationally below the minimum price of $250/MT FOB. The minimum price approach is less clumsy than export quotas but is a harder stop than Moscow’ use of export taxes to try and ma...
Asymmetric on Tariffs
Most economists are clear in describing tariffs as a border tax. Their impacts include increasing costs on consumers and reducing trade, and thus self-harming a nation’s economic well-being. Yet, it is difficult to identify a nation that doesn’t use tariffs, and most utilize them more than the...
Farm Subsidies on the March
Subsidies can increase output and there are many ways to subsidize an industry, but that doesn’t mean that countries should do it. Cost of Production: The EU badly wants to become self-sufficient in plant protein. More than four decades ago Europe lost a dispute settlement cas...
Politics: Will 2024 Election Yield an Unprecedented Triple Flip?
The 2024 election is three weeks from tomorrow. This cycle has been unusual. The campaign started as a Biden versus Trump rematch of the 2020 campaign, the first such rematch since 1956 (only the seventh time in history and only the second time since 1900). However, President Biden stepped down...
Policy Potpourri
Good Many Organisms: The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded this week to scientists at Google DeepMind using AI to predict the structure of proteins and inventing new ones. Capitaslizing on the opportunities, Ginkgo Bioworks announced that it would make available to researchers its API that u...
War on Food Companies; Holding Back the Future
War on Food Companies Market skeptics like U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) have stepped up their attack on food companies by accusing them of price gouging by “squeezing profits out of consumers” through shrinkflation and avoiding federal taxes. They charge that comp...
USDA Announces Cattle Price Discovery Rule
Today, the Biden Administration issued an Advanced Notice of Public Rulemaking (ANPR) on Price Discovery and Transparency in Markets for Fed Cattle. This is the fifth livestock and poultry market regulation put forth under the Packers and Stockyards Act (P&SA) and under the Biden Executive...