Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
The Credibility Gap: Administrative Optimism Meets Commodity Agriculture
Can we really expect a bushel of corn to carry an environmental passport throughout the entire food system? One that reliably documents its carbon footprint, biodiversity impacts, water use, soil carbon, and other environmental attributes all the way from the farm field to the consumer? This is...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 June today. There were 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from 1 June 2025, as well as from 1 March 2026. The hog herd sits at the same level it was on 1 September 2025 and is the lowest for June since 2023. From 2016, after the re...
Mid-Year Cow-Calf Profitability Projections
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Changing Dynamics of U.S. Farm Ownership and Succession
Key Takeaways: An aging farmer population and fewer younger successors are creating growing farm succession challenges, leaving many operations without a clear future High land values and capital requirements create major barriers to farm ownership for new producers Farmland consolidation and...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 June 2026 The Russian grain market moved lower this week as prices declined across all grain categories ahead of the end of the marketing year. Weakness was observed in both European Russia and the Asian regions, where markets continue to track bearish sentiment in...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 24 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. Below are analysts’ estimates for the report. The biggest change since the 1 March report is the number of market hogs, which is expected to be up 1.1 percent from what was implied in March. The percent increase in hogs we...
Argentina’s Agricultural Export Tax Reform at Risk
Key Takeaways: Argentina is a major global agricultural exporter, but producer returns have historically been constrained by export taxes. Export taxes have been a long-standing policy tool since 1955, reintroduced in 2002 after Argentina’s financial crisis, and have since remained a key...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Egypt’s wheat market is very quiet due to good stocks and low demand. Private sector millers are using local wheat production. Egypt’s maize imports have picked up this week, with shipment...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$243/head last week, down $25 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices more than offset a slight decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $390/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed to $260/cwt - just of all-time highs - extending the seasonal s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 23 June)
Developer's Note: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where obs...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
USMCA Renewal Prospects
When the USMCA was renegotiated in 2020, it added a sunset review process under which all three countries — the U.S., Mexico and Canada — are to meet on 1 July to indicate whether they want to renew the pact for another 16 years. That deadline is coming up in nine days, and Trump ha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting campaign advanced 13.4 percentage points week over week. Despite limited rainfall, low temperatures, and elevated atmospheric humidity, soil recovery remains slow across the southern agricultural belt, where field access for machinery continues to be constrained...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
USMCA: A Review or a Renegotiation?
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) enters its mandated six-year review on 1 July. The original intent of the review is outlined in Article 34.7, which obligates members to: Provide recommendations and decide on appropriate actions. Extend the USMCA for another 16 years and meet aga...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Friday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Monday, 22 June. ...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 June 2026 The Russian grain market was highly volatile during the week. The export market, the primary driver of domestic prices, remained stagnant, and bearish sentiment persisted. Weaker demand and expectations for a strong upcoming harvest encouraged exporters to...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
New World Screwworm Spreading North
Since the first U.S. case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was confirmed on 3 June, USDA has confirmed 12 cases. The latest was confirmed in a sheep on 12 June, with four additional cases confirmed in Texas on 11 June, three in cattle and one in a goat. The New Mexico case confirmed that the infect...
Port of Chancay's Success Hinges on Inland Infrastructure
Key Takeaways: China has invested heavily in the Port of Chancay to strengthen trade links between South America and Asia. The port could reduce shipping times to China by up to two weeks and improve export competitiveness. Inland transportation infrastructure remains the primary obstacle to r...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Wheat stocks in Egypt are at good levels, with only limited import interest. However, there is some concern over the supply of wheat from the Black Sea later in the year due to current weather problem...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$218/head last week, down $20 from the prior week as a softer Choice cutout combined with slightly lower fed cattle prices. The cutout slipped to $391/cwt while fed cattle prices eased to $256/cwt, leaving packer profits under pressure. Margins remain deeply...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
New Agreements on Iran War and EU Tariffs, Questions Remain
The U.S. and Iran announced a framework peace deal. Crude oil futures dropped to $83.08, the lowest since early March. The breakthrough comes as President Trump said that if Iran failed to reach a deal, he would order renewed military attacks. An LNG tanker chartered by India’s Petronet c...
Vertical Farming: A Promising Concept Held Back by Economic Challenges
Key Takeaways: Vertical farming offers year-round production, reduced water use, and the ability to grow fresh produce closer to consumers. High electricity consumption for lighting and climate control has proven to be the industry's biggest obstacle to profitability. Large upfront investments...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall across most of Argentina's agricultural regions during the past week slowed the pace of 2026/27 wheat planting. Even so, planting progress has reached 44.2 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares, following a weekly advance of 11.8 percentage points. Fieldwork was concentra...
Peace Deal in Iran: What Does It Mean for Ags?
Early Sunday evening, President Trump and Iranian officials confirmed the two countries have agreed to a peace deal. The agreement notes the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened (though President Trump cautioned time would be needed “for purposes of mine removal”) and the U.S. bl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
Policy Roundup: NWS, Section 122 Tariffs, and Dairy Producer Agenda
New World Screwworm Another day, another case of New World Screwworm. USDA has reported nine cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S. Of the nine reported cases, eight are located across four counties in Texas—Edwards, Gillespie, La Salle, and Zavala. Of the eight cases in Texas, si...
Regenerate, or not? You Get to Choose
It is easy to get overwhelmed by the debates surrounding farm policy and crop production, especially the current back-and-forth about regenerative agriculture. Regeneration appears to be the word of the decade, the one that won’t go away. Its ubiquity cannot be ignored; in the same way we...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
Livestock Round Up: NWS and USMCA Renegotiation
USDA’s National Veterinary Services confirmed three new cases of New World Screwworm, including one in a calf in La Salle County, Texas, a goat in Texas, and a dog in New Mexico. That brings the total to six cases. The border to Mexico is closed, with Mexico now implementing a prohibition...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Celebrating Gary Blumenthal’s Retirement After a Storied Career
After more than 40 years serving the agricultural industry and leading World Perspectives, Inc., Gary Blumenthal is retiring. His career—which included time on Capitol Hill, at USDA and the White House—helped shape U.S. and international agricultural policy and guided strategic disc...
U.S. Soybean Exports Become More Diversified as Reliance on China Declines
Key Takeaways: China's rise to become the world's largest soybean importer reshaped global trade flows, but recent trade tensions have reduced its share of U.S. soybean exports. U.S. soybean exports have become increasingly diversified as exporters expanded sales to multiple emerging markets t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 June 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing the first signs of the new season. The shift became visible on export trading platforms as global bearish sentiment intensified, supported by improving crop expectations across Russia's sou...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
E15 Moves to Senate
In January of this year, the House passed House Resolution 375, which established an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council and directed the council to investigate the sale of E15, to develop legislative solutions, and to submit those solutions to Congress. E15 legislation was included in a short-te...
Waste Feedstock Constraints Revive Demand for Crop-Based Biofuels
Key Takeaways: Early U.S. biofuel policy relied primarily on crop-based feedstocks such as corn and vegetable oils. California's LCFS increased demand for waste-derived feedstocks by rewarding fuels with lower carbon intensity scores. Supplies of used cooking oil, animal fats, and distillers c...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s currency has weakened in the past few weeks as higher energy costs related to the US/Iran conflict have pushed import prices up. Imports are paid mainly in US dollars and demand for the dollar has caused the Egyptian...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were essentially unchanged at -$201/head last week as a modest increase in the Choice cutout was offset by steady fed cattle prices. The cutout edged higher to $392/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $257/cwt, leaving packer spreads largely unchanged. Margins remain deepl...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT, Sends Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
What You Need to Know Today: After a volatile weekend with Israel and Iran launching attacks at each other, peace seems to have returned to the region after President Trump called for both sides to cease hostilities. Soybean trade remains defensive as funds are liquidating longs amid no signs...
EU Sovereignty Ruse; Imbalanced Views; USMCA Voices
EU Sovereignty Ruse For years politicians talked like banty roosters about Europe’s soft power leadership, with American leaders hoping that a strong EU would multiply the U.S. power equation. Then Donald Trump ascended to power and called Europe a Potemkin village, infuriating Brussels t...
Mexico’s Drought Accelerated the Growth of U.S. Corn Exports
Key Takeaways: Mexico's drought intensified from 2022 to 2024, with critically low reservoir levels in Sinaloa driving a sharp decline in corn production. Sinaloa produces roughly one-quarter of Mexico's corn crop and is the country's leading supplier of white corn used for staple foods such a...
More Cases of Screwworm in Texas Confirmed
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed two new cases of New World Screwworm (NWS). One was in Zavala County, Texas, the site of the first case. That case was found in a one-month-old calf, 5.6 miles from the first incident, and the quarantine effort in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Planting of the 2026/27 wheat crop continues at an exceptional pace, with 32.4 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares already seeded. This represents the fastest progress for this time of year since at least the 1998/99 season. Favorable soil moisture conditions have supported rapi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Lowers Risk Appetite
What You Need to Know Today: Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs in May, above economist expectations of 80,000 jobs. With the job market strong, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to tame inflation. The strong jobs report was a catalyst for lower risk appetite across financial and...
Screwworm Updates; Executive Action on Import Enforcement; Bullish Jobs Report
Newworld screwworm Update The detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas on Wednesday has been volatile for the cattle markets. The confirmation came on Wednesday evening, and the futures market opened sharply lower on Thursday. Market participants cited unknowns about cattle supplies and...
The Great American Cotton Plan: Promise and Practicality
With considerable fanfare—and few specifics—USDA last week announced its Great American Cotton Plan for 2026-2031. Secretary Brooke Rollins and industry leaders described the initiative as a comprehensive strategy to address the persistent challenges facing U.S. cotton production, d...
Man Behind the Curtain; Asia Reversal; Better Mousetrap
Man Behind the Curtain Hypocrisy is a feature and not a bug in politics, but it still deserves no mercy. EU trade minister Maros Sefcovic told Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang that Europe’s trade deficit with the Middle Kingdom is "unsustainable." He urged Li to address it even...
Market Commentary: New World Screwworm Appears in the U.S., Grains and Soy Sink
What You Need to Know Today: A case of New World Screwworm was detected in Texas, the first in the U.S. since 1966. With cases creeping closer to the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time. APHIS confirmed that larvae were detected in the umbilical area of a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County...
U.S. and Global Soy Crush Forecasts
WPI recently completed an expansion of our methodology for estimating and forecasting U.S. and global soybean crushing margins. The new approach incorporates the energy market’s expanding influence on the oilseed sector and the structural changes in global biofuel demand. This report is i...
Livestock Roundup: Screwworm in Texas Problem
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas. This comes two days after a USDA press conference on New World Screwworm (NWS) where Secretary Rollins noted that a new press conference would be held every two...
Big Ag Understood
Bernie Sanders attracted attention this week by declaring AI a “public resource” and calling for a 50 percent tax on AI companies to fund a sovereign wealth fund. Critics reacted by saying the idea proved that Sanders doesn’t understand AI or business, which is probably true o...
Market Commentary: Risk Premium: Gone or Just Hiding?
Key Market Insights Macro: Dollar Up, Stocks Down The U.S. dollar moved higher today, creating another headwind for American exports. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive on the global market and can make it harder for exporters to compete against South American and Black Sea...
Australia's Wheat Crop Is Set to Decline, but Russia Remains the Key to Global Wheat Prices
Key Takeaways: Australia's wheat crop is expected to decline sharply in 2026/27 as dry conditions and high input costs reduce planted area and yield potential. Some Australian farmers are shifting acreage from wheat to barley and canola in response to weather and profitability concerns.&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market, 25-29 May 2026 Russian grain markets remained firm across most of European Russia last week, while activity in Asian regions was more mixed. Farmer selling remains limited despite large carryover stocks, helping support domestic values. The spread between old-crop and new-...
Wolf Joins WPI Team as Director of Commodity Intelligence
World Perspectives, Inc. welcomes Steve Wolf as Director of Commodity Intelligence. Steve brings a broad range of agribusiness, commodity market, and consulting experience to WPI from previous roles at Tyson Foods and Informa Economics (now part of S&P Global). Steve most recently spent thr...
Tariffs II Messaging; Interstate Trade War; Oh Canada
Tariffs II Messaging President Trump’s use of IEPPA as the legal basis for last year’s reciprocal tariffs was struck down but they are returning under a different legal underpinning, Section 301. It is generally recognized that only the legal underpinning has changed while the polic...
Market Commentary: Technical Pressure, Crude Oil Decoupling Drive CBOT Selling
What You Need to Know Today: The USTR says Brazil has committed “unreasonable” acts against global trade rules and is recommending at 25 percent tariff on nearly all Brazilian ag products (unclear whether this includes beef amid President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices)...
Beef Supply and Demand Issues
Beef prices hit record highs in April 2026, and that is in large part due to robust consumer demand. Despite economic pressures on consumers, there is not much evidence of consumers trading down from beef. Much of that was due to the COVID pandemic when consumers learned new ways to...
Cellulosic Ethanol Fell Short of Expectations, but New Opportunities Are Emerging
Key Takeaways: The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set a goal of producing 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually by 2022, but actual production reached only a small fraction of that target. High production costs, feedstock collection challenges, and technological hurdl...
China Market Analysis
Corn The U.S. has yet to ship any corn to China, though last year’s sales were a paltry 32 KMT. Soybeans U.S. soybean export inspections for May rose above the previous year’s level with China as the target market. Citing reduced demand for soymeal, the Ministry of Agriculture...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MENA Region Pakistan has made “major amendments” to its biosafety regulations that it says will “simplify licensing procedures, ease import restrictions and facilitate laboratory research”. Companies will have to appl...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$200/head last week, up $57 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices moved lower. The cutout rose to $392/cwt, continuing its seasonal climb into summer demand, while fed cattle prices eased to $257/cwt. The improvement helpe...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Game of Chicken; Turnberry Precedent
Game of Chicken The U.S. and Mexico just completed an initial round of bilateral negotiations leading up to completing a joint review of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). A second round is scheduled for June 16-17 in Washington and will include agriculture as a key agenda item. A third...
Poultry and Egg Markets Weighed Against HPAI
From the monthly cold storage report it is interesting to look at the poultry numbers and changes due to HPAI that has been plaguing the sector to some degree since 2022. Total chicken in cold storage was up 1.1 percent on the year and up 0.9 percent on the month. For eggs, the total inve...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Reform The Argentine government announced a new long-term schedule for reducing export taxes ("retenciones"), one of the main policy tools affecting agricultural profitability and farmer selling decisions. Export taxes are applied directly to export values and have historic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Food Inflation; Last Laugh; MAHA Progress; Offense is Defense
Food Inflation The Open Markets Institute, which is notably funded by several “anonymous” donors and liberal foundations, obtained a guest editorial in the New York Times in which they blame agribusiness concentration for higher grocery prices. This is their schtick and it is politi...
Foodflation Coming Home
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026, energy markets have experienced significant disruptions. Crude oil, diesel fuel, and other petroleum products rose sharply as traders responded to uncertainty in one of the world's most important shipping corridors. The question for fo...
U.S. and Global Soy Crush Forecasts
WPI recently completed an expansion of our methodology for estimating and forecasting U.S. and global soybean crushing margins. The new approach incorporates the energy market’s expanding influence on the oilseed sector and the structural changes in global biofuel demand. This report is i...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Livestock Roundup: More Dairy Cow Slaughter Later This Year
A total of 79,000 cows has been added to the dairy herd since last December, which compares to 81,000 head added to the dairy herd over the same period in 2025. This similarity in herd expansion numbers in early 2025 and 2026 has kept dairy cow slaughter at the same level in each of the two yea...
Responsible Use of AI; Ukraine and CAP Money
Responsible Use of AI WPI does not have an encyclical on AI but since it employs real human analysts there is a view towards the technology. In short, it is a tool that should be used responsibly. AI analysis is not bad unless it is the default. It has advanced to the point that it is no longer...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$257/head last week, up $39 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to nearly $390/cwt, while fed cattle prices slipped to $260/cwt, allowing packer spreads to recover modestly from the prior week&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Producers' Share of Beef Value Up, Packer Margins Down
Key Takeaways: Cattle producers are currently capturing a greater proportion of total retail beef values amid tight cattle supplies. Packers are forced to make higher bids on cattle to keep operations running when supplies are tight, hurting packer margins. Sustained poor packer margins...
Dangerously Clueless; Old is New Category (Den of Pirates); Trade Purists
Dangerously Clueless Lazy analysts and food system critics have shifted attention temporarily from how bad our food is (UPFs,) to why it is expensive. Bloomberg correctly sites higher labor costs, tariffs, weather (El Niño), fertilizer prices, higher energy and transportation costs, the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market, 18-22 May 2026 Last week, Russian grain markets remained bullish all over the European part of the country. This times, even the Asian regions saw prices recover to new levels. This rally occurred on the heels of zero export duties and a very strong RUB. The rally i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
China Partially Lifts HPAI Restrictions
As we reported on 19 May, China has also committed to the resumption of U.S. poultry imports from states without confirmed HPAI detections. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has updated its China export restrictions webpage to reflect that China has lifted HPAI-rel...
Brazil’s Emerging Corn Ethanol Industry Driven by Market Forces and Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Brazil has been the second-largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, but almost all of it was derived from sugarcane until recently. Corn ethanol production has increased due to expanded second-crop corn production, sugarcane storage limitations, and biofuel policy. Brazil is e...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Eid Al-Adha will be celebrated in the Muslim world from 27 to 30 May 2026. The actual dates vary by country. Governments, banks and businesses will all be closed during this period. Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government reports tha...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 25 May is a U.S. holiday, and both the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next issue of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 26 May. The WPI staff wishes everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral with Bearish Undertones
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 102 percent of last year. Source: USDA, WPI Placements were up, but part of that is attributable to persistent drought c...
Fake Meat? On the End of the Aisle
Let’s return briefly to the fake meat hype cycle, now sitting somewhere in a dusty corner of your mind, not entirely forgotten. What happened to all those products, known as plant-based alternative proteins? They were supposed to be as good as real meat—cheaper, more environmentally...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
April 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks were up sharply from March but 1.6 percent below April 2025 levels due to continued declines in poultry and pork stocks. Total poultry stocks were up 0.2 percent year-over-year (YoY) due to a slow expansion in broiler slaughter. Total pork stocks ros...
New Trade Agreements; Hold the Beef; Where’s the Beef
New Trade Agreements U.S. and Indian officials say that bilateral trade negotiations are progressing on a comprehensive deal to expand earlier completed chapters on market access, NTBs and purchases. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has become more free trade oriented since consolidating his power...
Market Commentary: A Market Trading War — Until It Wasn’t
Key Market Insights Macro markets delivered a full whipsaw today. Early in the session, crude oil had rallied back above $100/barrel as traders priced renewed concern over the U.S.-Iran standoff and potential supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. That strength helped pull grains off their o...
Poultry Profitability Helping to Offset Challenging Beef Environment for Major Protein Producers
Key Takeaways: Major meatpackers are seeing massive losses in their beef divisions, with cattle prices at record levels amid low inventories. Drought continues to persist in cattle-producing areas in the U.S. Cattle herd rebuilding is not at the levels needed to meaningfully raise total cattle...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 May will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 101.4 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.535 million head. This is the first year-over-yea...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower on Improved Weather, Pre-Holiday Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese officials indicated that China and the U.S. have agreed to cut 10 percent tariffs on imports. Chinese officials confirmed that a “guiding target” has been set for purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, but fell short of confirming that the U.S. r...
Free Trade to State Direction; Transatlantic Concessions
Free Trade to State Direction Conceptually, American farmers are huge winners under a free trade policy promising fair and equitable terms. As critics of President Trump’s trade wars will be quick to point out, “U.S. farmers have been some of the biggest beneficiaries of U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 - 15 May 2026 The Russian grains market showed a broadly bullish tone across the European part of the country during the week, while conditions in the Asian regions remained stable to slightly bearish. In the southern federal district, the key wheat export hub, prices...
Soyoil Prices Continue to Be Bullish Amid High Energy Prices and Favorable Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Soyoil futures have been trading at the highest levels since 2022. Higher crude oil prices have allowed biofuels to be more cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Recent U.S. biofuel policy, including 45Z, has been favorable toward soyoil as a feedstock. California will be limiting...
Zimmerman Joins WPI Team as Communications Manager
World Perspectives, Inc. is pleased to announce a new member to our team. Cortney Zimmerman joined WPI in January as the Communications Manager. In this role, she supports the editing, production, and publication of the firm’s market analysis and written reports, working closely with anal...
Market Commentary: Markets Pause to Assess China Deal Amid Broadly Bullish Backdrop
What You Need to Know Today: Excitement over China’s agreement to purchase $17 billion of U.S. ag commodities subsided, as traders are cautious amid the yet-unspecified allocation of those purchases. Monday’s Crop Progress report did not significantly change the narrative for corn...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts, reversing a three-week buying trend. Funds reduced the net long on all-ags by 92,000 contracts (8.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016. The...
China Market Analysis
There has been more analysis of the Trump-Xi meeting last week than decades worth of papers written on the fall of Rome and the assassination of JFK. Optimists highlight the pageantry and showmanship; pessimists complain nothing major was accomplished. The divergence of the official assessments...
More on China Trade
As WPI reported, Presidents Trump and Xi held a bilateral summit last week (World Perspectives), the first since 2017, with some uncertainty over the outcome, though Trump commented on some “fantastic” trade deals. Over the weekend, more information was released on those agreements,...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is said to import about 20 million MT of grains and oilseeds annually through Persian Gulf ports, plus about 5.0 million MT on the Caspian Sea. Maize, soybeans, soymeal, and vegetable oil are all highly dependent on imports &...
Texas Joins Beef Antitrust Effort
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Friday launched an investigation into the beef industry over potential anticompetitive conduct among the nation’s largest meatpackers, his office announced Friday. He said the investigation would be conducted alongside a separate antitrust probe announ...
Market Commentary: Assumptions, Uncertainty, Volatility
What You Need to Know Today: Markets opened double digits higher Sunday evening following the release of Chinese and American official summaries of bilateral discussions last week. They chose the more optimistic view of future Chinese purchases of American farm goods versus the more opaque inte...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest remains virtually stalled as producers continue prioritizing the soybean harvest, which has advanced rapidly in recent weeks. During the past week, corn harvest progress increased only two percentage points, while soybean harvest advanced more than 30 percent...
Market Commentary: Funds Come Off Their High Horse
With no bullish surprise out of Beijing this week and good weather taking over many global crop areas, funds spent the past couple of days selling off the peak positions they had built. CNN’s Live Updates blared, “No signs Trump and Xi resolved any thorny challenges.” By...
Trump-Xi Bilateral Meeting Over
The long-awaited meeting between President Trump and President Xi of China has concluded, and details are elusive, though Trump stated today that he and Xi made some “fantastic” trade deals. Both countries reported the meetings as a success, but that has more to do with positioning...
Wheat Prospects in China and India: Much Ado About Nothing?
Key Takeaways Weather conditions in China and India are deteriorating and threatening the wheat crops. Drought conditions in China are not without precedent, and modeling efforts suggest a modest 1.5 percent yield reduction vs. 2025. India’s wheat yields are forecast to fall 3 perc...
Farm Labor: Fix What is Broken?
We at WPI hear frequently that U.S. agriculture is broken and needs fixing. This argument is often heard in MAHA-related discussions and focuses on highly processed food consumption or the overuse of pesticides and chemical fertilizers. Among farmers and food processors, however, especially tho...
Market Commentary: Lack of China Specifics Sink Market
There was heavy volume exiting soybeans, which dragged down the broader market today. The lack of a specific Chinese buying commitment for soybeans undermined speculators who had placed bets on state-directed trade. But even the Chinese do not totally ignore market fundamentals. They may still...
Administration to Suspend TRQ Waiver on Beef
On Tuesday, 12 May, WPI reported on an Executive Order being prepared by the Trump Administration to suspend tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means of addressing high beef prices in the United States. After considerable pushback from cattle producer groups,...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Policy Roundup
A federal appeals court paused a USITC ruling against President Trump’s use of Section 122 to impose 10-percent global tariffs. A bipartisan group of 80 House members asked USTR to investigate specialty crop imports from Mexico for unfair trade practices. India notified the WT...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 - 8 May 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing more bullish sentiment despite the traditionally slow pace of business during the May holiday period. Russia celebrates several holidays during early May, with Victory Day on 9 May being t...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Xi-Trump Summit Bottom Line
If the media headlines and Trump critics are to be believed, President Trump is headed to Beijing this Thursday in a weakened position. China is in control, it has the upper hand, and expectations are very low. These are the same critics that argue against overly simplistic zero-sum analyses in...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt reiterated plans to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat supplies for the country’s subsidized bread program by 2028, although the target remains ambitious given current production and consumption dynamics. Egypt consumes approximately 21 MMT of wheat annually, with rough...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$208/head last week, down $24 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices continued to outpace wholesale beef values. The Choice cutout held near $389/cwt, but fed cattle prices climbed to nearly $259/cwt, extending the seasonal squeeze on packer spreads...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
Policy Potpourri
Tax Policy Teed Up The debate over taxes on billionaires is heating up a larger fight over tax policy for the next U.S. Congress. This is good news because a fight solely over whether the wealthy are evil overlooks many larger issues plaguing the system. The journalist Josh Barro says that ever...
DOJ USDA Give Update on Antitrust Investigation into Beef Packing
At a joint press conference last week between the Department of Justice and USDA, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that he and Rollins were present to “... talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable.” The structure of the beef...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Solid Jobs Report, but the Devil is in the Details
Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, beating the consensus expectation for a gain of 65,000. Payroll gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 16,000, resulting in a net gain of 99,000, including revisions. The largest increases in April were health care and social a...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Livestock Round Up: Summer Grilling Season and Exports
It is now May, the kick-off of the retail meat demand surge, and a shift in the types of products. There are a variety of events that result in a notable spike in spending. First, just passed, is Cinco de Mayo, on 5 May, in which shoppers seek out such items as taco fixings and ready-to-heat me...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Dressed Carcass Politicians
Gutless politicians are an unsurprising feature, but are nonetheless disappointing. Their constituents often do not care why beef prices are high; they just want them lowered. And if there is no easy solution, then the politician’s goal is to deflect the criticism toward anyone else, whet...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$184/head last week, down $84 from the prior week as sharply higher fed cattle prices outpaced a modest rebound in the Choice cutout. The cutout firmed to $388/cwt, but fed cattle prices surged to nearly $255/cwt, continuing to compress packer spreads despit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 April - 1 May 2026 The Russian grains market remained volatile but predominantly bullish during the week in review. However, ruble (RUB) movements continue to distort domestic price signals. With export duties at zero for three consecutive weeks and export prices relat...
Market Commentary: Grains Ease on Profit Taking but Bullish Fundamentals Remain
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE infrastructure are sustaining geopolitical risk across energy and commodity markets Broad profit taking and weaker crude oil triggered a pullback across grains, signaling...
House MAHA Hearing on State Laws in Energy and Commerce Committee
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health held a hearing on legislative proposals concerning food regulation and oversight. The hearing was focused on a wide range of bills, in keeping with the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda, ranging from anti–plant-based dairy produc...
China Market Analysis
Decline of China Ag Import Market The media has focused on China’s self-sufficiency effort in agriculture and its implications. In a largely political statement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that the Trump Administration wants to broaden the agricultural imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt and Algeria, in addition to Israel, are being monitored by Ukraine as possible destinations for grain taken by Russia from occupied Ukrainian regions. In April, Egypt had said that it would “stop accepting such shipmen...
Market Commentary: Weather and Biofuels Drive CBOT Strength as Geopolitical Risk Builds
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. launches naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks UAE oil infrastructure, escalating geopolitical risk and supporting energy and broader commodity markets Biofuel demand entering uncharted territory, with soyoil valuation increasingly di...
Ag and Trade Paradigm Shifts
The Middle East is said to be undergoing a transformation as economic priorities transcend security concerns. This is evidenced by diversification away from oil and the UAE’s departure from OPEC. Meanwhile, the Palestine issue has been deprioritized, and Iran has emerged as more destabili...
Market Commentary: Acreage Report Takes Center Stage
What You Need to Know Today: Crude oil prices dropped sharply with traffic flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. There were reports that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman, which would be a violation of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Pr...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
The Credibility Gap: Administrative Optimism Meets Commodity Agriculture
Can we really expect a bushel of corn to carry an environmental passport throughout the entire food system? One that reliably documents its carbon footprint, biodiversity impacts, water use, soil carbon, and other environmental attributes all the way from the farm field to the consumer? This is...
Market Commentary: Focus Turns to New Crop Export Sales
What You Need to Know Today: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) rose 4.1 percent year-over-year, in line with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Bayer secured a favorable Suprem...
Livestock Round Up: Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for 1 June today. There were 73.7 million head, which was down slightly from 1 June 2025, as well as from 1 March 2026. The hog herd sits at the same level it was on 1 September 2025 and is the lowest for June since 2023. From 2016, after the re...
Mid-Year Cow-Calf Profitability Projections
Key Takeaways: Despite rising cost pressures — including the recent run-up in fuel and energy costs — U.S. cow-calf producers are facing another year of record-breaking revenues and net returns for 2026. Cost pressures — particularly non-feed variable costs — and...
Market Commentary: The Battle for Support
Key Market Insights Outside markets dominated today’s session. Crude oil traded below $70 per barrel, the U.S. dollar climbed to a 13-month high, and both gold and silver posted sharp declines as traders increased expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. At the same time, t...
Changing Dynamics of U.S. Farm Ownership and Succession
Key Takeaways: An aging farmer population and fewer younger successors are creating growing farm succession challenges, leaving many operations without a clear future High land values and capital requirements create major barriers to farm ownership for new producers Farmland consolidation and...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 June 2026 The Russian grain market moved lower this week as prices declined across all grain categories ahead of the end of the marketing year. Weakness was observed in both European Russia and the Asian regions, where markets continue to track bearish sentiment in...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 24 June)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “...
Market Commentary: Searching for Something New
What You Need to Know Today: There is a global rotation out of tech stocks right now amid profit-taking and expectations of interest rate hikes later this year. The White House said Iran will use its upcoming unsanctioned oil revenue to buy U.S. agricultural products, a claim that Iran later s...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday. Below are analysts’ estimates for the report. The biggest change since the 1 March report is the number of market hogs, which is expected to be up 1.1 percent from what was implied in March. The percent increase in hogs we...
Argentina’s Agricultural Export Tax Reform at Risk
Key Takeaways: Argentina is a major global agricultural exporter, but producer returns have historically been constrained by export taxes. Export taxes have been a long-standing policy tool since 1955, reintroduced in 2002 after Argentina’s financial crisis, and have since remained a key...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Egypt’s wheat market is very quiet due to good stocks and low demand. Private sector millers are using local wheat production. Egypt’s maize imports have picked up this week, with shipment...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$243/head last week, down $25 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices more than offset a slight decline in the Choice cutout. The cutout eased to $390/cwt while fed cattle prices climbed to $260/cwt - just of all-time highs - extending the seasonal s...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continue to hold broadly bearish sentiments resulted in the ag markets as last week marked another in a string of consecutive net liquidation periods. Managed money traders liquidated another 105,000 contracts (35 percent) of their prior all-ags net long, extending the pullback from the l...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 23 June)
Developer's Note: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where obs...
Market Commentary: Mixed Macro Signals Keeping Grains Rangebound
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. Treasury Department authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days after “productive talks” with Iran in Switzerland over the weekend. Chevron and Microsoft entered into a 20-year agreement to develop Project Kilby, a...
USMCA Renewal Prospects
When the USMCA was renegotiated in 2020, it added a sunset review process under which all three countries — the U.S., Mexico and Canada — are to meet on 1 July to indicate whether they want to renew the pact for another 16 years. That deadline is coming up in nine days, and Trump ha...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina's wheat planting campaign advanced 13.4 percentage points week over week. Despite limited rainfall, low temperatures, and elevated atmospheric humidity, soil recovery remains slow across the southern agricultural belt, where field access for machinery continues to be constrained...
Market Commentary: Selling Across Most Commodities After Hawkish Fed
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Livestock Round Up: Cattle on Feed
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
USMCA: A Review or a Renegotiation?
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) enters its mandated six-year review on 1 July. The original intent of the review is outlined in Article 34.7, which obligates members to: Provide recommendations and decide on appropriate actions. Extend the USMCA for another 16 years and meet aga...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Friday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Monday, 22 June. ...
Market Commentary: Markets on Pins & Needles
Key Market Insights Geopolitical Limbo: Geopolitical risk remained a key driver across global commodity markets today. President Trump stated that the Iran memorandum of understanding is not yet final and warned that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Both sides continue w...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 June 2026 The Russian grain market was highly volatile during the week. The export market, the primary driver of domestic prices, remained stagnant, and bearish sentiment persisted. Weaker demand and expectations for a strong upcoming harvest encouraged exporters to...
Market Commentary: China Buying Rumors Lift Soybeans; Cattle Rise on Beef Demand Hopes
What You Need to Know Today: American and Mexican officials met Tuesday and will meet again Wednesday for another round of trade talks, where ag and energy will be a key topic. Another round is scheduled for 20 July. Ag groups are urging President Trump to renew USMCA for another 16 years, but...
New World Screwworm Spreading North
Since the first U.S. case of New World Screwworm (NWS) was confirmed on 3 June, USDA has confirmed 12 cases. The latest was confirmed in a sheep on 12 June, with four additional cases confirmed in Texas on 11 June, three in cattle and one in a goat. The New Mexico case confirmed that the infect...
Port of Chancay's Success Hinges on Inland Infrastructure
Key Takeaways: China has invested heavily in the Port of Chancay to strengthen trade links between South America and Asia. The port could reduce shipping times to China by up to two weeks and improve export competitiveness. Inland transportation infrastructure remains the primary obstacle to r...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt Grain Situation Recap: Wheat stocks in Egypt are at good levels, with only limited import interest. However, there is some concern over the supply of wheat from the Black Sea later in the year due to current weather problem...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$218/head last week, down $20 from the prior week as a softer Choice cutout combined with slightly lower fed cattle prices. The cutout slipped to $391/cwt while fed cattle prices eased to $256/cwt, leaving packer profits under pressure. Margins remain deeply...
Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Iran Peace Deal Despite Bearish Long-Run Outlook
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on Monday with the deal expected to be signed Friday in Switzerland. The memorandum signed is explicit that Iran will allow 60 days of toll-free transit for all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump annou...
New Agreements on Iran War and EU Tariffs, Questions Remain
The U.S. and Iran announced a framework peace deal. Crude oil futures dropped to $83.08, the lowest since early March. The breakthrough comes as President Trump said that if Iran failed to reach a deal, he would order renewed military attacks. An LNG tanker chartered by India’s Petronet c...
Vertical Farming: A Promising Concept Held Back by Economic Challenges
Key Takeaways: Vertical farming offers year-round production, reduced water use, and the ability to grow fresh produce closer to consumers. High electricity consumption for lighting and climate control has proven to be the industry's biggest obstacle to profitability. Large upfront investments...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall across most of Argentina's agricultural regions during the past week slowed the pace of 2026/27 wheat planting. Even so, planting progress has reached 44.2 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares, following a weekly advance of 11.8 percentage points. Fieldwork was concentra...
Peace Deal in Iran: What Does It Mean for Ags?
Early Sunday evening, President Trump and Iranian officials confirmed the two countries have agreed to a peace deal. The agreement notes the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened (though President Trump cautioned time would be needed “for purposes of mine removal”) and the U.S. bl...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The ongoing shift in ag commodity markets from bullish to bearish sentiments resulted in funds halving their all-ags net long last week, liquidating 330,000 contracts (52 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just five weeks prior. This, combined with the w...
Market Commentary: Quiet Trade Follows WASDE as Livestock Sector Faces Capacity Shifts
What You Need to Know Today: It was a quiet trading day across major agricultural commodities, with most contracts closing within 1 percent of the previous day's settlement. Trading volumes for corn and the soy complex were lighter than earlier in the week, as traders were positioning before a...
Policy Roundup: NWS, Section 122 Tariffs, and Dairy Producer Agenda
New World Screwworm Another day, another case of New World Screwworm. USDA has reported nine cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S. Of the nine reported cases, eight are located across four counties in Texas—Edwards, Gillespie, La Salle, and Zavala. Of the eight cases in Texas, si...
Regenerate, or not? You Get to Choose
It is easy to get overwhelmed by the debates surrounding farm policy and crop production, especially the current back-and-forth about regenerative agriculture. Regeneration appears to be the word of the decade, the one that won’t go away. Its ubiquity cannot be ignored; in the same way we...
Market Commentary: June WASDE Light on Major Balance Sheet Changes
What You Need to Know Today: The June WASDE report was largely in line with expectations, with no major market-altering changes to the balance sheets. The Producer Price Index rose by 1.1 percent month-over-month in May 2026, exceeding economist estimates of a 0.7 percent rise. The annual head...
Livestock Round Up: NWS and USMCA Renegotiation
USDA’s National Veterinary Services confirmed three new cases of New World Screwworm, including one in a calf in La Salle County, Texas, a goat in Texas, and a dog in New Mexico. That brings the total to six cases. The border to Mexico is closed, with Mexico now implementing a prohibition...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: The Return of Risk Premium
Key Market Insights Macro Markets: Inflation and Iran Reenter the Conversation Just when the grain trade had become comfortable focusing almost exclusively on weather, two major macro stories returned to the spotlight this morning: inflation and Iran. May CPI came in hotter than expected, with...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Celebrating Gary Blumenthal’s Retirement After a Storied Career
After more than 40 years serving the agricultural industry and leading World Perspectives, Inc., Gary Blumenthal is retiring. His career—which included time on Capitol Hill, at USDA and the White House—helped shape U.S. and international agricultural policy and guided strategic disc...
U.S. Soybean Exports Become More Diversified as Reliance on China Declines
Key Takeaways: China's rise to become the world's largest soybean importer reshaped global trade flows, but recent trade tensions have reduced its share of U.S. soybean exports. U.S. soybean exports have become increasingly diversified as exporters expanded sales to multiple emerging markets t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 June 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing the first signs of the new season. The shift became visible on export trading platforms as global bearish sentiment intensified, supported by improving crop expectations across Russia's sou...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Stabilization Continues, But What Next?
What You Need to Know Today: Early Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Secretary said vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising in a “very meaningful way.” Tuesday afternoon, however, President Trump said Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter while it was patrolling the Strait of Hormu...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
E15 Moves to Senate
In January of this year, the House passed House Resolution 375, which established an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council and directed the council to investigate the sale of E15, to develop legislative solutions, and to submit those solutions to Congress. E15 legislation was included in a short-te...
Waste Feedstock Constraints Revive Demand for Crop-Based Biofuels
Key Takeaways: Early U.S. biofuel policy relied primarily on crop-based feedstocks such as corn and vegetable oils. California's LCFS increased demand for waste-derived feedstocks by rewarding fuels with lower carbon intensity scores. Supplies of used cooking oil, animal fats, and distillers c...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s currency has weakened in the past few weeks as higher energy costs related to the US/Iran conflict have pushed import prices up. Imports are paid mainly in US dollars and demand for the dollar has caused the Egyptian...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins were essentially unchanged at -$201/head last week as a modest increase in the Choice cutout was offset by steady fed cattle prices. The cutout edged higher to $392/cwt while fed cattle prices held near $257/cwt, leaving packer spreads largely unchanged. Margins remain deepl...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Drives CBOT, Sends Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
What You Need to Know Today: After a volatile weekend with Israel and Iran launching attacks at each other, peace seems to have returned to the region after President Trump called for both sides to cease hostilities. Soybean trade remains defensive as funds are liquidating longs amid no signs...
EU Sovereignty Ruse; Imbalanced Views; USMCA Voices
EU Sovereignty Ruse For years politicians talked like banty roosters about Europe’s soft power leadership, with American leaders hoping that a strong EU would multiply the U.S. power equation. Then Donald Trump ascended to power and called Europe a Potemkin village, infuriating Brussels t...
Mexico’s Drought Accelerated the Growth of U.S. Corn Exports
Key Takeaways: Mexico's drought intensified from 2022 to 2024, with critically low reservoir levels in Sinaloa driving a sharp decline in corn production. Sinaloa produces roughly one-quarter of Mexico's corn crop and is the country's leading supplier of white corn used for staple foods such a...
More Cases of Screwworm in Texas Confirmed
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed two new cases of New World Screwworm (NWS). One was in Zavala County, Texas, the site of the first case. That case was found in a one-month-old calf, 5.6 miles from the first incident, and the quarantine effort in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Planting of the 2026/27 wheat crop continues at an exceptional pace, with 32.4 percent of the projected 6.5 million hectares already seeded. This represents the fastest progress for this time of year since at least the 1998/99 season. Favorable soil moisture conditions have supported rapi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 188,000 contracts (23 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just four weeks...
Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Lowers Risk Appetite
What You Need to Know Today: Non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 jobs in May, above economist expectations of 80,000 jobs. With the job market strong, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to tame inflation. The strong jobs report was a catalyst for lower risk appetite across financial and...
Screwworm Updates; Executive Action on Import Enforcement; Bullish Jobs Report
Newworld screwworm Update The detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in Texas on Wednesday has been volatile for the cattle markets. The confirmation came on Wednesday evening, and the futures market opened sharply lower on Thursday. Market participants cited unknowns about cattle supplies and...
The Great American Cotton Plan: Promise and Practicality
With considerable fanfare—and few specifics—USDA last week announced its Great American Cotton Plan for 2026-2031. Secretary Brooke Rollins and industry leaders described the initiative as a comprehensive strategy to address the persistent challenges facing U.S. cotton production, d...
Man Behind the Curtain; Asia Reversal; Better Mousetrap
Man Behind the Curtain Hypocrisy is a feature and not a bug in politics, but it still deserves no mercy. EU trade minister Maros Sefcovic told Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang that Europe’s trade deficit with the Middle Kingdom is "unsustainable." He urged Li to address it even...
Market Commentary: New World Screwworm Appears in the U.S., Grains and Soy Sink
What You Need to Know Today: A case of New World Screwworm was detected in Texas, the first in the U.S. since 1966. With cases creeping closer to the U.S. border, it was only a matter of time. APHIS confirmed that larvae were detected in the umbilical area of a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County...
U.S. and Global Soy Crush Forecasts
WPI recently completed an expansion of our methodology for estimating and forecasting U.S. and global soybean crushing margins. The new approach incorporates the energy market’s expanding influence on the oilseed sector and the structural changes in global biofuel demand. This report is i...
Livestock Roundup: Screwworm in Texas Problem
The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed a case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Texas. This comes two days after a USDA press conference on New World Screwworm (NWS) where Secretary Rollins noted that a new press conference would be held every two...
Big Ag Understood
Bernie Sanders attracted attention this week by declaring AI a “public resource” and calling for a 50 percent tax on AI companies to fund a sovereign wealth fund. Critics reacted by saying the idea proved that Sanders doesn’t understand AI or business, which is probably true o...
Market Commentary: Risk Premium: Gone or Just Hiding?
Key Market Insights Macro: Dollar Up, Stocks Down The U.S. dollar moved higher today, creating another headwind for American exports. A stronger dollar makes U.S. commodities more expensive on the global market and can make it harder for exporters to compete against South American and Black Sea...
Australia's Wheat Crop Is Set to Decline, but Russia Remains the Key to Global Wheat Prices
Key Takeaways: Australia's wheat crop is expected to decline sharply in 2026/27 as dry conditions and high input costs reduce planted area and yield potential. Some Australian farmers are shifting acreage from wheat to barley and canola in response to weather and profitability concerns.&...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Market, 25-29 May 2026 Russian grain markets remained firm across most of European Russia last week, while activity in Asian regions was more mixed. Farmer selling remains limited despite large carryover stocks, helping support domestic values. The spread between old-crop and new-...
Wolf Joins WPI Team as Director of Commodity Intelligence
World Perspectives, Inc. welcomes Steve Wolf as Director of Commodity Intelligence. Steve brings a broad range of agribusiness, commodity market, and consulting experience to WPI from previous roles at Tyson Foods and Informa Economics (now part of S&P Global). Steve most recently spent thr...
Tariffs II Messaging; Interstate Trade War; Oh Canada
Tariffs II Messaging President Trump’s use of IEPPA as the legal basis for last year’s reciprocal tariffs was struck down but they are returning under a different legal underpinning, Section 301. It is generally recognized that only the legal underpinning has changed while the polic...
Market Commentary: Technical Pressure, Crude Oil Decoupling Drive CBOT Selling
What You Need to Know Today: The USTR says Brazil has committed “unreasonable” acts against global trade rules and is recommending at 25 percent tariff on nearly all Brazilian ag products (unclear whether this includes beef amid President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices)...
Beef Supply and Demand Issues
Beef prices hit record highs in April 2026, and that is in large part due to robust consumer demand. Despite economic pressures on consumers, there is not much evidence of consumers trading down from beef. Much of that was due to the COVID pandemic when consumers learned new ways to...
Cellulosic Ethanol Fell Short of Expectations, but New Opportunities Are Emerging
Key Takeaways: The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set a goal of producing 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually by 2022, but actual production reached only a small fraction of that target. High production costs, feedstock collection challenges, and technological hurdl...
China Market Analysis
Corn The U.S. has yet to ship any corn to China, though last year’s sales were a paltry 32 KMT. Soybeans U.S. soybean export inspections for May rose above the previous year’s level with China as the target market. Citing reduced demand for soymeal, the Ministry of Agriculture...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MENA Region Pakistan has made “major amendments” to its biosafety regulations that it says will “simplify licensing procedures, ease import restrictions and facilitate laboratory research”. Companies will have to appl...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$200/head last week, up $57 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices moved lower. The cutout rose to $392/cwt, continuing its seasonal climb into summer demand, while fed cattle prices eased to $257/cwt. The improvement helpe...
Market Commentary: Bears Control CBOT at Least Until Weather Market Forms
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Friday that the U.S. has seized $1b of Iranian crypto assets. Iran’s IGGC says 15 merchant vessels, including 4 oil tankers, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Managed money traders...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Game of Chicken; Turnberry Precedent
Game of Chicken The U.S. and Mexico just completed an initial round of bilateral negotiations leading up to completing a joint review of the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). A second round is scheduled for June 16-17 in Washington and will include agriculture as a key agenda item. A third...
Poultry and Egg Markets Weighed Against HPAI
From the monthly cold storage report it is interesting to look at the poultry numbers and changes due to HPAI that has been plaguing the sector to some degree since 2022. Total chicken in cold storage was up 1.1 percent on the year and up 0.9 percent on the month. For eggs, the total inve...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Export Tax Reform The Argentine government announced a new long-term schedule for reducing export taxes ("retenciones"), one of the main policy tools affecting agricultural profitability and farmer selling decisions. Export taxes are applied directly to export values and have historic...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long 169,000 contracts (17 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just three weeks pr...
Market Commentary: Risk-off tone hits grains and livestock
What You Need to Know Today: Agricultural commodities were mostly lower on the day, with red-hot soyoil a notable exception. Export sales were a bit underwhelming, particularly for corn with export sales down 52 percent week-over-week. The weakness in ag markets tracked crude oil weakness wit...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Food Inflation; Last Laugh; MAHA Progress; Offense is Defense
Food Inflation The Open Markets Institute, which is notably funded by several “anonymous” donors and liberal foundations, obtained a guest editorial in the New York Times in which they blame agribusiness concentration for higher grocery prices. This is their schtick and it is politi...
Foodflation Coming Home
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026, energy markets have experienced significant disruptions. Crude oil, diesel fuel, and other petroleum products rose sharply as traders responded to uncertainty in one of the world's most important shipping corridors. The question for fo...
U.S. and Global Soy Crush Forecasts
WPI recently completed an expansion of our methodology for estimating and forecasting U.S. and global soybean crushing margins. The new approach incorporates the energy market’s expanding influence on the oilseed sector and the structural changes in global biofuel demand. This report is i...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Livestock Roundup: More Dairy Cow Slaughter Later This Year
A total of 79,000 cows has been added to the dairy herd since last December, which compares to 81,000 head added to the dairy herd over the same period in 2025. This similarity in herd expansion numbers in early 2025 and 2026 has kept dairy cow slaughter at the same level in each of the two yea...
Responsible Use of AI; Ukraine and CAP Money
Responsible Use of AI WPI does not have an encyclical on AI but since it employs real human analysts there is a view towards the technology. In short, it is a tool that should be used responsibly. AI analysis is not bad unless it is the default. It has advanced to the point that it is no longer...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved to -$257/head last week, up $39 from the prior week as the Choice cutout strengthened while fed cattle prices eased. The cutout rose to nearly $390/cwt, while fed cattle prices slipped to $260/cwt, allowing packer spreads to recover modestly from the prior week&rsqu...
Market Commentary: Trading Headlines, Pricing Risk
Key Market Insights Today was another reminder that this market is trading headlines first, facts second. Early optimism surrounding reports of a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding helped pressure energy risk premium and kept the broader commodity space defensive. An hour later, how...
Producers' Share of Beef Value Up, Packer Margins Down
Key Takeaways: Cattle producers are currently capturing a greater proportion of total retail beef values amid tight cattle supplies. Packers are forced to make higher bids on cattle to keep operations running when supplies are tight, hurting packer margins. Sustained poor packer margins...
Dangerously Clueless; Old is New Category (Den of Pirates); Trade Purists
Dangerously Clueless Lazy analysts and food system critics have shifted attention temporarily from how bad our food is (UPFs,) to why it is expensive. Bloomberg correctly sites higher labor costs, tariffs, weather (El Niño), fertilizer prices, higher energy and transportation costs, the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market, 18-22 May 2026 Last week, Russian grain markets remained bullish all over the European part of the country. This times, even the Asian regions saw prices recover to new levels. This rally occurred on the heels of zero export duties and a very strong RUB. The rally i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Better Weather, Geopolitical Trade Dynamics
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. conducted “self-defense strikes” in Iran and said the two sides are “close” to negotiating a ceasefire. “Close” is a relative term, however, and even if 95 percent of the terms are agreed to, the remaining 5 percent is l...
China Partially Lifts HPAI Restrictions
As we reported on 19 May, China has also committed to the resumption of U.S. poultry imports from states without confirmed HPAI detections. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has updated its China export restrictions webpage to reflect that China has lifted HPAI-rel...
Brazil’s Emerging Corn Ethanol Industry Driven by Market Forces and Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Brazil has been the second-largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, but almost all of it was derived from sugarcane until recently. Corn ethanol production has increased due to expanded second-crop corn production, sugarcane storage limitations, and biofuel policy. Brazil is e...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
China Market Analysis
Grain China’s General Administration of Customs says that grain imports were up 34.3 percent in April and an overall 18.1 percent for the January to April period. On the one hand, China produces more grain that it consumes and stockpiles large volumes. But Canadian grain analyst Mitch Mil...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Eid Al-Adha will be celebrated in the Muslim world from 27 to 30 May 2026. The actual dates vary by country. Governments, banks and businesses will all be closed during this period. Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government reports tha...
Market Commentary: Small Gains as Corn/Soybeans Correct; Commodity Supercycle
What You Need to Know Today: The corn and soybean markets closed slightly higher in low-volume trade. The wheat market was mixed, with HRW continuing its downward trek on improved moisture. As expected, the bearish cattle on feed report drove down cattle prices and pulled hogs down with it. Mi...
Memorial Day Holiday
Monday, 25 May is a U.S. holiday, and both the markets and our office will be closed. Please note that the next issue of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 26 May. The WPI staff wishes everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral with Bearish Undertones
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 102 percent of last year. Source: USDA, WPI Placements were up, but part of that is attributable to persistent drought c...
Fake Meat? On the End of the Aisle
Let’s return briefly to the fake meat hype cycle, now sitting somewhere in a dusty corner of your mind, not entirely forgotten. What happened to all those products, known as plant-based alternative proteins? They were supposed to be as good as real meat—cheaper, more environmentally...
Cold Storage Report Summary and Analysis
April 2026 total red meat and poultry stocks were up sharply from March but 1.6 percent below April 2025 levels due to continued declines in poultry and pork stocks. Total poultry stocks were up 0.2 percent year-over-year (YoY) due to a slow expansion in broiler slaughter. Total pork stocks ros...
New Trade Agreements; Hold the Beef; Where’s the Beef
New Trade Agreements U.S. and Indian officials say that bilateral trade negotiations are progressing on a comprehensive deal to expand earlier completed chapters on market access, NTBs and purchases. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has become more free trade oriented since consolidating his power...
Market Commentary: A Market Trading War — Until It Wasn’t
Key Market Insights Macro markets delivered a full whipsaw today. Early in the session, crude oil had rallied back above $100/barrel as traders priced renewed concern over the U.S.-Iran standoff and potential supply risk through the Strait of Hormuz. That strength helped pull grains off their o...
Poultry Profitability Helping to Offset Challenging Beef Environment for Major Protein Producers
Key Takeaways: Major meatpackers are seeing massive losses in their beef divisions, with cattle prices at record levels amid low inventories. Drought continues to persist in cattle-producing areas in the U.S. Cattle herd rebuilding is not at the levels needed to meaningfully raise total cattle...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 May will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 101.4 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.535 million head. This is the first year-over-yea...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Lower on Improved Weather, Pre-Holiday Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese officials indicated that China and the U.S. have agreed to cut 10 percent tariffs on imports. Chinese officials confirmed that a “guiding target” has been set for purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, but fell short of confirming that the U.S. r...
Free Trade to State Direction; Transatlantic Concessions
Free Trade to State Direction Conceptually, American farmers are huge winners under a free trade policy promising fair and equitable terms. As critics of President Trump’s trade wars will be quick to point out, “U.S. farmers have been some of the biggest beneficiaries of U.S...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 - 15 May 2026 The Russian grains market showed a broadly bullish tone across the European part of the country during the week, while conditions in the Asian regions remained stable to slightly bearish. In the southern federal district, the key wheat export hub, prices...
Soyoil Prices Continue to Be Bullish Amid High Energy Prices and Favorable Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Soyoil futures have been trading at the highest levels since 2022. Higher crude oil prices have allowed biofuels to be more cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Recent U.S. biofuel policy, including 45Z, has been favorable toward soyoil as a feedstock. California will be limiting...
Zimmerman Joins WPI Team as Communications Manager
World Perspectives, Inc. is pleased to announce a new member to our team. Cortney Zimmerman joined WPI in January as the Communications Manager. In this role, she supports the editing, production, and publication of the firm’s market analysis and written reports, working closely with anal...
Market Commentary: Markets Pause to Assess China Deal Amid Broadly Bullish Backdrop
What You Need to Know Today: Excitement over China’s agreement to purchase $17 billion of U.S. ag commodities subsided, as traders are cautious amid the yet-unspecified allocation of those purchases. Monday’s Crop Progress report did not significantly change the narrative for corn...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts, reversing a three-week buying trend. Funds reduced the net long on all-ags by 92,000 contracts (8.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016. The...
China Market Analysis
There has been more analysis of the Trump-Xi meeting last week than decades worth of papers written on the fall of Rome and the assassination of JFK. Optimists highlight the pageantry and showmanship; pessimists complain nothing major was accomplished. The divergence of the official assessments...
More on China Trade
As WPI reported, Presidents Trump and Xi held a bilateral summit last week (World Perspectives), the first since 2017, with some uncertainty over the outcome, though Trump commented on some “fantastic” trade deals. Over the weekend, more information was released on those agreements,...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is said to import about 20 million MT of grains and oilseeds annually through Persian Gulf ports, plus about 5.0 million MT on the Caspian Sea. Maize, soybeans, soymeal, and vegetable oil are all highly dependent on imports &...
Texas Joins Beef Antitrust Effort
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Friday launched an investigation into the beef industry over potential anticompetitive conduct among the nation’s largest meatpackers, his office announced Friday. He said the investigation would be conducted alongside a separate antitrust probe announ...
Market Commentary: Assumptions, Uncertainty, Volatility
What You Need to Know Today: Markets opened double digits higher Sunday evening following the release of Chinese and American official summaries of bilateral discussions last week. They chose the more optimistic view of future Chinese purchases of American farm goods versus the more opaque inte...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn harvest remains virtually stalled as producers continue prioritizing the soybean harvest, which has advanced rapidly in recent weeks. During the past week, corn harvest progress increased only two percentage points, while soybean harvest advanced more than 30 percent...
Market Commentary: Funds Come Off Their High Horse
With no bullish surprise out of Beijing this week and good weather taking over many global crop areas, funds spent the past couple of days selling off the peak positions they had built. CNN’s Live Updates blared, “No signs Trump and Xi resolved any thorny challenges.” By...
Trump-Xi Bilateral Meeting Over
The long-awaited meeting between President Trump and President Xi of China has concluded, and details are elusive, though Trump stated today that he and Xi made some “fantastic” trade deals. Both countries reported the meetings as a success, but that has more to do with positioning...
Wheat Prospects in China and India: Much Ado About Nothing?
Key Takeaways Weather conditions in China and India are deteriorating and threatening the wheat crops. Drought conditions in China are not without precedent, and modeling efforts suggest a modest 1.5 percent yield reduction vs. 2025. India’s wheat yields are forecast to fall 3 perc...
Farm Labor: Fix What is Broken?
We at WPI hear frequently that U.S. agriculture is broken and needs fixing. This argument is often heard in MAHA-related discussions and focuses on highly processed food consumption or the overuse of pesticides and chemical fertilizers. Among farmers and food processors, however, especially tho...
Market Commentary: Lack of China Specifics Sink Market
There was heavy volume exiting soybeans, which dragged down the broader market today. The lack of a specific Chinese buying commitment for soybeans undermined speculators who had placed bets on state-directed trade. But even the Chinese do not totally ignore market fundamentals. They may still...
Administration to Suspend TRQ Waiver on Beef
On Tuesday, 12 May, WPI reported on an Executive Order being prepared by the Trump Administration to suspend tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means of addressing high beef prices in the United States. After considerable pushback from cattle producer groups,...
Market Commentary: War, Weather, and Waiting
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...
Policy Roundup
A federal appeals court paused a USITC ruling against President Trump’s use of Section 122 to impose 10-percent global tariffs. A bipartisan group of 80 House members asked USTR to investigate specialty crop imports from Mexico for unfair trade practices. India notified the WT...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 - 8 May 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market began showing more bullish sentiment despite the traditionally slow pace of business during the May holiday period. Russia celebrates several holidays during early May, with Victory Day on 9 May being t...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Xi-Trump Summit Bottom Line
If the media headlines and Trump critics are to be believed, President Trump is headed to Beijing this Thursday in a weakened position. China is in control, it has the upper hand, and expectations are very low. These are the same critics that argue against overly simplistic zero-sum analyses in...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional News Egypt reiterated plans to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat supplies for the country’s subsidized bread program by 2028, although the target remains ambitious given current production and consumption dynamics. Egypt consumes approximately 21 MMT of wheat annually, with rough...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$208/head last week, down $24 from the prior week as higher fed cattle prices continued to outpace wholesale beef values. The Choice cutout held near $389/cwt, but fed cattle prices climbed to nearly $259/cwt, extending the seasonal squeeze on packer spreads...
Market Commentary: Risks Abound During Headline Week
What You Need to Know Today: Energy markets are sharply higher after President Trump rejected a weekend Iranian counter proposal that did not include limits on the country’s nuclear program. The ceasefire looks increasingly fragile, with energy markets unlikely to return to normal soon...
Policy Potpourri
Tax Policy Teed Up The debate over taxes on billionaires is heating up a larger fight over tax policy for the next U.S. Congress. This is good news because a fight solely over whether the wealthy are evil overlooks many larger issues plaguing the system. The journalist Josh Barro says that ever...
DOJ USDA Give Update on Antitrust Investigation into Beef Packing
At a joint press conference last week between the Department of Justice and USDA, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that he and Rollins were present to “... talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable.” The structure of the beef...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to net long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the third straight week as weather concerns sustained risk-on buying. Funds added 97,000 contracts (9.8 percent) to their all-ags net long position last week, essentially reversing the...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Solid Jobs Report, but the Devil is in the Details
Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, beating the consensus expectation for a gain of 65,000. Payroll gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 16,000, resulting in a net gain of 99,000, including revisions. The largest increases in April were health care and social a...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
Market Commentary: Prices Slide on a Hiatus in the Market
What You Need to Know Today Agricultural futures spent a third straight session mostly lower after partially recovering from morning lows. The war in Iran continues to drive energy markets with spillover into ags. After two days lower, crude oil turned higher after Iran demanded unlikely...
Livestock Round Up: Summer Grilling Season and Exports
It is now May, the kick-off of the retail meat demand surge, and a shift in the types of products. There are a variety of events that result in a notable spike in spending. First, just passed, is Cinco de Mayo, on 5 May, in which shoppers seek out such items as taco fixings and ready-to-heat me...
Market Commentary: War Premium Out. Weather Premium Next?
Key Market Insights Macros: Macro markets traded a sharp shift in tone Wednesday as traders aggressively pulled risk premium from the market on growing optimism surrounding a possible U.S.–Iran agreement. Crude oil briefly traded back below $89/barrel while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 push...
Dressed Carcass Politicians
Gutless politicians are an unsurprising feature, but are nonetheless disappointing. Their constituents often do not care why beef prices are high; they just want them lowered. And if there is no easy solution, then the politician’s goal is to deflect the criticism toward anyone else, whet...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins deteriorated to -$184/head last week, down $84 from the prior week as sharply higher fed cattle prices outpaced a modest rebound in the Choice cutout. The cutout firmed to $388/cwt, but fed cattle prices surged to nearly $255/cwt, continuing to compress packer spreads despit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 April - 1 May 2026 The Russian grains market remained volatile but predominantly bullish during the week in review. However, ruble (RUB) movements continue to distort domestic price signals. With export duties at zero for three consecutive weeks and export prices relat...
Market Commentary: Grains Ease on Profit Taking but Bullish Fundamentals Remain
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iranian attacks on vessels and UAE infrastructure are sustaining geopolitical risk across energy and commodity markets Broad profit taking and weaker crude oil triggered a pullback across grains, signaling...
House MAHA Hearing on State Laws in Energy and Commerce Committee
The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health held a hearing on legislative proposals concerning food regulation and oversight. The hearing was focused on a wide range of bills, in keeping with the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda, ranging from anti–plant-based dairy produc...
China Market Analysis
Decline of China Ag Import Market The media has focused on China’s self-sufficiency effort in agriculture and its implications. In a largely political statement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that the Trump Administration wants to broaden the agricultural imports...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt and Algeria, in addition to Israel, are being monitored by Ukraine as possible destinations for grain taken by Russia from occupied Ukrainian regions. In April, Egypt had said that it would “stop accepting such shipmen...
Market Commentary: Weather and Biofuels Drive CBOT Strength as Geopolitical Risk Builds
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. launches naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks UAE oil infrastructure, escalating geopolitical risk and supporting energy and broader commodity markets Biofuel demand entering uncharted territory, with soyoil valuation increasingly di...
Ag and Trade Paradigm Shifts
The Middle East is said to be undergoing a transformation as economic priorities transcend security concerns. This is evidenced by diversification away from oil and the UAE’s departure from OPEC. Meanwhile, the Palestine issue has been deprioritized, and Iran has emerged as more destabili...