European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, a vessel rammed a lock on the Moselle River in Germany, which led Euronext to suspend delivery at French delivery ports on the river for February 2025. The damage was sufficient that initial estimates cited “months” to repair the lock, but more recent news indicate...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the agreement in a press conference in Montevideo and cited the need for more free trade in the fa...
Food’s Fools Gold
Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable. Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but ha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s quota will be reduced to 11 MMT, or about one-third of last year’s 29-MMT quota. During the quota period, no shipments of corn, barley, and...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain unseasonably warm and dry, though the regions received beneficial rains at the end of last week. The Balkans saw unusually heavy rainfall from the same storm system. Polish protesters are planning on blocking the border with Ukr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts. The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
Post-Election Transatlantic
The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
TFP as Focus
The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year to 2.8 percent, versus 0.8 percent for the Euro Area and the 0.9 percent average for the non-U.S. G-7 countries. Competitiveness is said to be the primary term in Brussels these days, as it should be. The avera...
Olive Oil Volatility
Bloomberg notes the problems confronting small scale olive oil producers in Spain and Italy. Production is volatile and has been under duress from drought and climate change. As a result, the price has risen, attracting investors who are creating larger scale farms. The article says, “The Super...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...
Running Out of Protein
Europe ran out of energy when the Russian attack on Ukraine forced it to reduce imports from Russia. Europe lacks the ability to defend itself despite Russia’s threat on its eastern border. Now Europe is reducing its consumption of meat but failing to invest in meat alternatives that coul...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...
How Not to Resuscitate; Micromanagement
How Not to Resuscitate The European Parliament rejected the Commission’s proposal to allow tolerance levels for pesticide residues on some imported foods. Allowing a rat pack of politicians to directly decide scientific issues only contributes to domestic decline. Pesticides can be produc...
New EU Commission; America First Channels Sovereignty
New EU Commission European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made known her nominees to run the government in Brussels and the trade and agriculture portfolios have interesting selections. As was speculated previously, Christophe Hansen from Luxembourg has been picked for the agricultur...
Future of EU Agriculture; Future of U.S. Agriculture
Future of EU Agriculture Mercosur: Newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reiterated French opposition to a trade agreement with Mercosur at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil, saying he is seeking coalition partners for a blocking minority. Meanwhile, Mercosur leaders receive...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU is set to receive beneficial rains across its central region this week with some of that precipitation extending out into parts of western and eastern Europe. That will offer some relief from the drought for central Europe, but the north-central and eastern regions wi...
Competitor Opportunities (Future of EU Agriculture Part II)
Yesterday, we took an initial and cursory look at the outcome of the EU’s Strategic Dialogue on farm support. Basically, it says move away from area payments and focus resources on small farmers not large operations. Today, we look at it in more detail, the current spin on its outcome ver...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, a vessel rammed a lock on the Moselle River in Germany, which led Euronext to suspend delivery at French delivery ports on the river for February 2025. The damage was sufficient that initial estimates cited “months” to repair the lock, but more recent news indicate...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the agreement in a press conference in Montevideo and cited the need for more free trade in the fa...
Food’s Fools Gold
Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable. Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but ha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s quota will be reduced to 11 MMT, or about one-third of last year’s 29-MMT quota. During the quota period, no shipments of corn, barley, and...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain unseasonably warm and dry, though the regions received beneficial rains at the end of last week. The Balkans saw unusually heavy rainfall from the same storm system. Polish protesters are planning on blocking the border with Ukr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts. The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
Post-Election Transatlantic
The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
TFP as Focus
The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year to 2.8 percent, versus 0.8 percent for the Euro Area and the 0.9 percent average for the non-U.S. G-7 countries. Competitiveness is said to be the primary term in Brussels these days, as it should be. The avera...
Olive Oil Volatility
Bloomberg notes the problems confronting small scale olive oil producers in Spain and Italy. Production is volatile and has been under duress from drought and climate change. As a result, the price has risen, attracting investors who are creating larger scale farms. The article says, “The Super...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...
Running Out of Protein
Europe ran out of energy when the Russian attack on Ukraine forced it to reduce imports from Russia. Europe lacks the ability to defend itself despite Russia’s threat on its eastern border. Now Europe is reducing its consumption of meat but failing to invest in meat alternatives that coul...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...
How Not to Resuscitate; Micromanagement
How Not to Resuscitate The European Parliament rejected the Commission’s proposal to allow tolerance levels for pesticide residues on some imported foods. Allowing a rat pack of politicians to directly decide scientific issues only contributes to domestic decline. Pesticides can be produc...
New EU Commission; America First Channels Sovereignty
New EU Commission European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made known her nominees to run the government in Brussels and the trade and agriculture portfolios have interesting selections. As was speculated previously, Christophe Hansen from Luxembourg has been picked for the agricultur...
Future of EU Agriculture; Future of U.S. Agriculture
Future of EU Agriculture Mercosur: Newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reiterated French opposition to a trade agreement with Mercosur at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil, saying he is seeking coalition partners for a blocking minority. Meanwhile, Mercosur leaders receive...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU is set to receive beneficial rains across its central region this week with some of that precipitation extending out into parts of western and eastern Europe. That will offer some relief from the drought for central Europe, but the north-central and eastern regions wi...
Competitor Opportunities (Future of EU Agriculture Part II)
Yesterday, we took an initial and cursory look at the outcome of the EU’s Strategic Dialogue on farm support. Basically, it says move away from area payments and focus resources on small farmers not large operations. Today, we look at it in more detail, the current spin on its outcome ver...