Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.35/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.28/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $314.6/short ton, down $4.1...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other things. Too, the logistical difficulties of moving grain around the December holidays are prompting many to wait until the new year to market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation in export prices, which also held steady. Domestic millers in European Russia returned to the market, supporting stable to slightly bullish...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at about 5.3 MMT then Saudi Arabia at 1.5 MMT, Morocco at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 1.0 MMT and Bangladesh at 770,000 MT. Brazil exported 29.6 MMT of m...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.225/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, down $8...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted both oil and grain trade. Spot prices initially rose by several dollars but returned to previous levels by week’s end. The long-term out...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $327/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months due to “calmer conditions” in the Red Sea. Vessels using the canal during that period were at 4,405 with total cargo at 167.6 MM...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5725/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $330.8/short ton, up $8.3 from...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallies. Too, the firmer euro has further eroded EU export competitiveness just as FOB offers from Argentina near $209–211/MT for 11.5 perce...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.245/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $322.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $321/short ton, up $4.1 from yester...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in individual regions. Wheat export prices remained stable in European Russia. The Asian part of Russia shows appreciation of prices because of a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $3.1 f...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.9 from yester...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag minister Annie Genevard said her country would not sign the deal that “condemns its farmers”. Poland confirmed it will continue its ban...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.17/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.1/short ton, up $4.4 f...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.075/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $312.7/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief recoveries in select regions. Despite improving monthly export volumes, demand continues to lag behind the export surplus. The season began...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.4/short ton, down $3...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23.8 MMT. Iran has imported about 4.7 MMT followed by Egypt at just over 4.0 MMT, Saudi Arabia with 1.1 MMT, Morocco at 900,000 MT and Algeria...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on the import of Ukrainian grains. Milling Wheat Wheat markets adopted a firmer tone last week as CBOT futures rallied on speculati...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0775/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, up $6.9...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibited bearish sentiment due to exportable surplus, while Asian Russia showed signs of price recovery, though uncertainty persists. The bearish...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $8.3 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that have been unloaded and two in Egyptian ports. The total value is said to be in excess of $30 million. The shipper says that there has been s...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4475/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, up $2.3 from yeste...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $3.1 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and firm global demand. Reduced competition among buyers—due to fewer active exporters and limited multinational participation—has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $1.9...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,000 people registered. There were many attendees from Turkey, Egypt, and across North Africa, fewer from Africa and the Middle East but stil...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined this week as producers started to cull herds following seasonal patterns. Slaughter steers and heifer prices, however, were stable as supplie...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.195/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281/short ton, up $4.1 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.9/short ton, up $1.6 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and the Volga Valley, prices in European Russia stabilized and even recovered for staple grains. The sharp downward trend observed in September...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.3/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural development for Tunisia. The program is being supported by €76 million from the Agricultural Investment and Modernization Program funded by...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechanism for export duties. The “damper” lowered the export tax on wheat shipments by about 20 percent for 8-14 October and pushed co...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0675/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275/short ton, down $1.9 f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278/short ton, up $1.1 from yes...
U.S. 2025/26 Crop Balance Sheets Growing Heavy
WPI’s latest forecasts for the U.S. corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum markets in 2025/26 are increasingly leaning bearish due to expected larger supplies and, except for corn, weaker demand. China’s continued absence from the soybean and sorghum markets is a major headwind for the a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 September–03 October 2025 The market remained bearish under pressure from the new crop. However, the export market is fueling optimism. With relatively low export duties, Russian farmers may improve grain margins this year, supported by significant trade volumes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.22/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah Food Company just opened a new feed production facility along with a poultry processing operation – both are part of the company’s $400 million expansion program in Saudi that will hel...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1275/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1775/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $277.1/short ton, down $...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Central and Western Europe saw beneficial and widespread storms last week and over the weekend that aided soil moistures and the fall crop planting outlook. The rains did elevate concerns for planting delays in some areas, however, especially with temperatures cooling down a...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.18/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278.6/short ton, down $0.7...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...
Market Commentary: Snow Falls Across Midwest, Commodities Fall Across CBOT
The U.S. Midwest received heavy snowfall this weekend and as snowflakes drifted lower so – apparently – did CBOT traders’ sentiments. The ag markets were almost entirely on the defensive to start the last month of the year with soyoil being the only major market to see meaning...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced nearly 14 percentage points this past week, reaching 30 percent of the total area. Good weather accelerated maturation in some fields at the same time forecasts of weekend rainfall pushed harvesters to move quickly. Yields continue to surprise, with so...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.45/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.35/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.28/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $314.6/short ton, down $4.1...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling of grains remains limited across most of Europe as low prices and the looming holidays have producers focused on other things. Too, the logistical difficulties of moving grain around the December holidays are prompting many to wait until the new year to market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Low Volume But Solid Intentions
The CME and traders recovered from a data center problem that halted overnight trading but it was the holiday interrupted week that sent trading volumes sharply lower on Friday. The day started with another flash sale of soybeans to China, evidencing that Beijing is committed to its agreement w...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4775/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3775/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.7/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Broadly Bullish
The CBOT was higher heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday with investors across the board seeming to find optimism amid a relatively quiet news day. For the ag markets, news that China continues to book U.S. soybeans – securing as many as 10 cargoes on Tuesday – is supportive,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4525/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.405/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.315/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $0 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 November 2025 The grain market remained stable. A strong ruble limited domestic price growth despite slight appreciation in export prices, which also held steady. Domestic millers in European Russia returned to the market, supporting stable to slightly bullish...
Market Commentary: Taking Back Yesterday’s Losses
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with rumors of Chinese soybean buying and strong performance in equity markets boosting trader sentiment. Tuesday’s trade seemed to reflect the typical pre-Thanksgiving glide into low-volume, low-volatility trade that often dominates the day before an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.235/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3925/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2475/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $320.4/short ton, up $2.1 fr...
China Update
Geopolitics China's reaction to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks on a potential Taiwan crisis has been disproportionately harsh and overtly hostile as it tried to undermine her domestic political support. Beijing’s ban on seafood imports from Japan based on the Fuku...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran remains the largest importer of Brazil maize at about 6.1 MMT followed by Egypt at about 5.3 MMT then Saudi Arabia at 1.5 MMT, Morocco at 1.1 MMT, Algeria at 1.0 MMT and Bangladesh at 770,000 MT. Brazil exported 29.6 MMT of m...
Market Commentary: Grains Fade in Pre-Holiday Trade; Cattle Limit-Down on Plant Closure
The CBOT saw muted and mostly lower trade to open the week of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The day’s trade was predominantly weaker as technical factors and a lack of news immediately relevant to the grain markets prompted fund selling. Monday’s news did include USDA confirmation...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 24 November)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3475/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2325/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, down...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT The Argentine wheat harvest advanced 3.8 percentage points this week, bringing total progress to 20 percent of the area. Yields continued to perform well, and given tight margins after recent price declines, most harvested volumes exceeded breakeven levels. In the core production region,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU MARS Crop Monitoring in Europe report is due out Monday, 24 November, but it has not been released as of WPI’s publishing time. The EU countries voted last Wednesday to postpone the implementation of EUDR and simplify the legislation, the now-mutual agreem...
Market Commentary: Friday’s Ends a Tough Week Except for Soyoil and Dollar
There was a glimmer of hope for bulls on Friday, but it was just a glimmer. Soybeans, meal and HRW closed higher, but the rest of the players fell off the merry-go-round. There was generally lower volume but the trend is clear – there is an over abundance of grain on world markets and U.S...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.255/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.3975/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.25/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, up $1.6 from...
Market Commentary: Unmoved and Uncertain
It was the third straight day of flash soybean sales to China. The IGC tightened global soybean balances. The morning’s USDA’s export sales report showed corn and wheat ahead of last year. The September employment report showed substantially larger gains than expected. Stocks opened...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.225/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $314/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Soybean Sales to China Fail to Impress CBOT
The CBOT was almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with traders booking any long profits and likely adding some short spec positions as momentum wanes from the markets. The down day was a little surprising after USDA reported another 12.1 Mbu of soybeans sold to China for 2025/26, but that news h...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.495/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3625/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $318.9/short ton, down $8...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 7-14 November 2025 Russia reported an air attack on the port of Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea export hub. The attack disrupted both oil and grain trade. Spot prices initially rose by several dollars but returned to previous levels by week’s end. The long-term out...
Market Commentary: Sell The Fact Trade Drives Turnaround Tuesday
The big news in commodity markets Tuesday was USDA’s confirmation that China purchased nearly 800 KMT of soybeans from the U.S. on Monday. That news was corroborated by news stories saying China booked over 20 cargoes from the PNW and Gulf with basis levels rising in both locations as if...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.59/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $327/short ton, down $3.8 from...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Suez Canal revenue is reportedly up by 14.2 percent in the last four months due to “calmer conditions” in the Red Sea. Vessels using the canal during that period were at 4,405 with total cargo at 167.6 MM...
Market Commentary: Bulls Win Post-WASDE Standoff
Monday’s CBOT trade quickly erased any hints of weakness that emerged during Friday’s post-WASDE selloff. The WASDE itself was – in WPI’s view – either bearish or neutral the major commodities, but futures didn’t see it that way on Monday. The soybean and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest advanced 4.9 percent week over week, reaching 16.5 percent of the suitable area. The national average yield continued to rise as combines moved through the core production zones, now at 2.6 MT/ha. In the highest-productivity regions, cutting was still limited, but early tests poin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.4425/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.5725/bushel, up $0.3275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $330.8/short ton, up $8.3 from...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat European wheat markets remain under pressure amid heavy global supplies and as aggressive Black Sea and Argentine offers cap any rallies. Too, the firmer euro has further eroded EU export competitiveness just as FOB offers from Argentina near $209–211/MT for 11.5 perce...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing delays in releasing the backlogged CFTC data, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and o...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2025
USDA’s November 2025 estimate is for U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase 57 million bushels to 901. The projected U.S. season-average wheat price received by farmers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00. The global ending stocks of total wheat increased to 271.4 million; This is the firs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2725/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.245/bushel, down $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $322.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Excitement; Over-Reaction, Under-Reaction
Like Lord Tennyson’s troops lined up in the Crimean War, sometimes we are just fodder in the commodity markets. After 40 days and 40 nights of withdrawal from government data reports, we watched as the momentum built for today’s noon EST release of USDA November WASDE report. In the...
Market Commentary: Corn and Beans Bravely Higher Ahead of the WASDE
The U.S. government reopened today and the data fog partially lifted in Washington. However, many economic reports will first require time to repopulate their databases. USDA made the decision to publish the November WASDE tomorrow ahead of the agreement to reopen the government and traders spe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.415/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $328.4/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Market Commentary: Shutdown Progress, WASDE Hopes Send CBOT Higher
The U.S. government is edging ever closer to reopening, which means Washington can resume its vital work of spending money to see if rabbits enjoy Swedish massages and training mountain lions to run on treadmills (we wish we were kidding). While Washington’s spending habits certainl...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3375/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $321/short ton, up $4.1 from yester...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 3–7 November 2025 During the first week of November ,the market was predominantly bearish with rare temporary recoveries in individual regions. Wheat export prices remained stable in European Russia. The Asian part of Russia shows appreciation of prices because of a...
Market Commentary: CBOT Mixed as Shutdown End Begins
The CBOT was mixed with Monday’s strength in various markets fading quickly and giving way to a “turnaround Tuesday”. Corn and soyoil were the two holdouts from the turnaround pattern as both markets saw demand-side factors boost values to modest gains. Beyond that, traders we...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.36/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.2725/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $3.1 f...
Market Commentary: Markets Rally as Shutdown Starts to End
CBOT markets rode a wave of enthusiasm Monday with the winds of a partial reopening of the U.S. government, China trade optimism, and USDA’s upcoming WASDE report driving the sentiment. The Senate broke the filibuster late Sunday night as several Democrats joined Republicans in passing th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2975/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320/short ton, up $2.9 from yester...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Harvesting is gaining momentum, including in the higher-yielding areas of Córdoba. Yields are good and some are described as impressive - as high as 8 MT/ha. Optimism is high, and for some, the estimates of 22–23 MMT are starting to look conservative. However, there are still...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France is preparing to block a free trade agreement between the EU and Southern Common Market (Mercosur) trade block. French ag minister Annie Genevard said her country would not sign the deal that “condemns its farmers”. Poland confirmed it will continue its ban...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Pre-Weekend Bounce on a Mixed Week
Outside markets continued their downbeat on Friday but ag futures had a few recoveries from yesterday’s trouncing. Corn closed lower for the day and the week. The soy complex closed optimistically for the day but had a mixed week. Winter wheat closed lower on the day and the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2725/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.17/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.1/short ton, up $4.4 f...
WPI Crop Balance Sheet Forecasts
Ahead of next week’s USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, WPI offers our latest projections for the corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. The key findings from this effort are that corn and soybean supplies are set to expand on upward yield revisions. Too, demand for corn an...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.075/bushel, down $0.2675 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $312.7/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Corrections Lower, and Maybe Yet Lower
There was a “show me the money” attitude in today’s trading as caution replaced yesterday’s enthusiasm in both ag markets and on Wall Street. Let’s count the many sources of hesitation. Soybeans, meal, and wheat have all been overbought with high RSI’s. ...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally as China Cuts Tariffs; Cattle Implosion Continues
Trade was once again at the forefront of the CBOT’s trade on Wednesday, with reductions in Chinese tariffs, rumors of Chinese buying, and a dimming political outlook for President Trump’s tariff regime being the most salient factors. China announced today that it will cut tari...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $324.8/short ton, up $7.4 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 27–31 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained predominantly bearish during the final week of October, with only brief recoveries in select regions. Despite improving monthly export volumes, demand continues to lag behind the export surplus. The season began...
Market Commentary: An Appearance of Weakness
Bullish sentiments have been driving the CBOT higher since last week’s U.S.-China trade talks, but bears finally made an appearance on Tuesday. The CBOT saw the entire soy complex pullback as China has not confirmed anything about what the Trump administration claims was agreed to in Sout...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.5025/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.215/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $317.4/short ton, down $3...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran continues to be the largest importer of Brazil maize as total maize exports reach 23.8 MMT. Iran has imported about 4.7 MMT followed by Egypt at just over 4.0 MMT, Saudi Arabia with 1.1 MMT, Morocco at 900,000 MT and Algeria...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Wheat Rally on China Buying; USDA Confirms Report Release
Rumors of Chinese buying supported soybeans and SRW wheat futures on Monday and sent both contracts to new rally highs. For soybeans, the biggest news drivers were details that the White House shared about China’s soybean purchase commitments and China’s confirmation that it will su...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $320.8/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 1.2 percentage points last week, reaching 35 percent of the projected national area. In the central agricultural region, early planting is nearly complete, while some areas in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province still need...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The European Union has threatened Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia with legal action as the three nations have adopted unilateral bans on the import of Ukrainian grains. Milling Wheat Wheat markets adopted a firmer tone last week as CBOT futures rallied on speculati...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Invigorating Week and Now a Candy High
Chicago futures remained hopeful in the wake of this week’s U.S.-China trade agreement. Bears are quick to note that an agreement and sales are two very different animals. U.S. soybean exporters will still face a 13 percent tariff into China and there are no clear penalties should China m...
Market Commentary: Beans for Chips, De-escalation Volatility
It was sell the rumor buy the fact in a Topsy-Turvey 24 hours of trading on what happened in South Korea between the world’s two top leaders. Presidents Trump and Xi made a deal, but the details were initially vague, and some skepticism remains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.2425/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $11.0775/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, up $6.9...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.34/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.3225/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.945/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $308.7/short ton, up $2.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Consolidate while Soymeal Runs Higher and Cattle Firm
The lingering effects of trade agreements and now-confirmed export rumors were the primary drivers of the CBOT’s action on Wednesday. Tuesday’s rumors of China buying some U.S. soybeans ahead of the trade talks with the U.S. on Thursday were confirmed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The m...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 20–24 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained relatively stable with divergent regional trends. European Russia exhibited bearish sentiment due to exportable surplus, while Asian Russia showed signs of price recovery, though uncertainty persists. The bearish...
Market Commentary: Grains Extend Trade-Deal Rally; Cattle Pullback Continues
The CBOT saw continued support and speculative buying from hopes for the upcoming U.S.-China Presidential meeting in South Korea on Thursday and from the recent trade deals with Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. The price-depressive effects of the 2025 trade war(s) need no introduction fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.32/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.29/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.9525/bushel, up $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $306.5/short ton, up $8.3 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt is reportedly late in payment on a number of Ukraine wheat vessels – six that have been unloaded and two in Egyptian ports. The total value is said to be in excess of $30 million. The shipper says that there has been s...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Surge on China Framework, Trade Deals; Cattle Bull Market Is Over
Trade agreements were the story of the day as the U.S. reached deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam and a framework for a U.S.-China agreement that could result in “substantial” purchases of U.S. soybeans. The latter statement came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessen...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.26/bushel, up $0.135 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6725/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $298.2/short ton, up $4.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest is gaining momentum in northern Argentina, with yields exceeding expectations. In the northwest, yields range from 0.8–1.5 MT/ha, above the five-year regional average of 0.82 MT/ha. In the northeast, current averages near 2.7 MT/ha surpass the previous record from...
Daily Estimate of Managed Money Positioning in Ag Futures
Amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, WPI presents the following estimates of managed money traders’ positioning in key agricultural futures markets. WPI’s estimates are based on econometric and signal processing methods that use futures price, volume, and open interest informa...
Market Commentary: Some Weekend Pullbacks but Nothing Scary
It was a pause and reflect day for some contracts, and more getting beat down for the cattle market. The latter invoking more limit-down safeguards. There were slight gains for soymeal, HRW and hogs, with the rest of the complex showing red. There was good volume for a Friday in corn, soybeans,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4175/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $294.1/short ton, up $1.8...
Market Commentary: Reversal Stays Intact as Harvest Nears Final Stages
It was another day of mostly higher markets as the reversal continued its strength particularly in soybeans and soymeal. While the redirection has been less overall price significant in corn, it was the seventh session higher in the past eight. Soybeans have closed higher in six of the past sev...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.28/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.4475/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $292.3/short ton, up $2.3 from yeste...
What Are Funds Doing Now? Forecasting the Missing CFTC Data
One of the key data points the ag (and broader) commodity markets are used to getting from the now-shuttered federal government is the weekly CFTC report, which shows how funds and commercials are positioned in the markets. The data is highly useful for myriad applications, and the current lack...
Market Commentary: Playing Chess and Chicken; Trump Post Triggers Cattle Crash
U.S.-China relations continue to dominate headlines with a midday report from Reuters indicating that the Trump administration is looking to curb an array of software powered exports to China. The products could include items from laptops to jet engines, and the administration is considering ma...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.23/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $290/short ton, up $3.1 from yes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 13–17 October 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish undertone, despite zero export duties and firm global demand. Reduced competition among buyers—due to fewer active exporters and limited multinational participation—has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3075/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $286.9/short ton, up $1.9...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Fall as Political Winds Swirl
The CBOT was mostly red on Tuesday with a combination of technical factors and a policy position reversal from the American Petroleum Institute weighing on markets. The API sent a letter to congress saying it reversed its earlier support for year-round sales of E15 fuel and said the government...
Export Inspections: Corn and Wheat Up, Soybeans and Sorghum Down
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will continue to be issued during the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government, until further notice. However, there is a temporary suspension of the weekly export sales and monthly supply and demand reports. Nonetheless, USDA is repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
16 October was World Bread Day, just in case you missed it. The European Commodity Exchange held in Berlin Germany last week was well attended with over 4,000 people registered. There were many attendees from Turkey, Egypt, and across North Africa, fewer from Africa and the Middle East but stil...
Market Commentary: Trade Optimism Sparks Soy, Corn Rally
News that President Trump may be taking a more conciliatory stand towards China and that key leaders from Beijing and Washington are meeting to discuss the trade war emboldened funds on Monday. The soy complex was the upside leader with soybeans posting a bullish technical day as funds position...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0475/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3175/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $285/short ton, up $4 from ye...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 5 percentage points last week, reaching 29.9 percent of the projected national area. However, excess moisture continues to hinder fieldwork in central and western Buenos Aires provinces. As a result, early planting will likely fall short of in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News German and central European cattle values are starting to decline after their recent, multi-year rally. Slaughter cow values declined this week as producers started to cull herds following seasonal patterns. Slaughter steers and heifer prices, however, were stable as supplie...
Market Commentary: Bottom Signaled; Beef Attacked
Fund buying is signaling it is the market bottom for grains, because they say so. And beef has hit a market top because President Trump says it has. Of course, it is more complex than that but those are authoritative sources. The corn market did not wait for such signals, instead rallying...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.225/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0375/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.195/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $281/short ton, up $4.1 from...
Market Commentary: Mixed But Fruitful Day of Adjustments
Agricultural futures might be called mixed on the day, though that is upbeat by itself. There was a continuation of the bear wheat/bull beef story with a new contract low printed in HRS, and a new contract high in cattle. The corn market continued its rebound story on potential yield declines c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.025/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1075/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, up $1 from y...
Does Bias in CONAB’s Forecasts Imply Even Bigger Crops?
CONAB recently released its first forecasts for the 2025/26 corn, soybean, and wheat crops (among others) and pegged production for the first two at massive levels. The soybean crop was forecast at a record 177.6 MMT, up sharply from the prior year and easily the largest on record due to expand...
Market Commentary: Trump Tweet Can’t Sustain Soyoil Rally; Corn Firms on Yield Concerns
President Trump’s tweet about possibly restricting used cooking oil imports from China and more yield concerns for Midwest corn crops created mixed trade at the CBOT Wednesday. Soyoil, corn, and soymeal all pushed higher in a combination of technical and fundamentally-driven trade with co...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1675/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275.9/short ton, up $1.6 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 6–10 October 2025 The Russian grains market showed mixed dynamics. While bearish sentiment persisted in the Asian regions and the Volga Valley, prices in European Russia stabilized and even recovered for staple grains. The sharp downward trend observed in September...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soybeans Sag; New Highs for Cattle
Corn and wheat found technical support Tuesday that created turnarounds on their respective charts and, in the case of wheat, formed bullish key reversals. News of smaller corn yields in the Midwest and strong export sales performance last week helped boost corn and wheat values following Monda...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.065/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.3/short ton, up $0.2 fro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Tunisia and France have extended their cooperation program in agricultural and rural development for Tunisia. The program is being supported by €76 million from the Agricultural Investment and Modernization Program funded by...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.9675/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $274.1/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: New Lows for Wheat, New Highs for Cattle; Soybeans Eye Trade Talks
President Trump walked back some of his statements regarding China over the weekend, which allowed ag markets to breathe more easily this week. Soybeans and soyoil managed to post small gains to start the week after Friday’s trade-war-news-induced collapse, with traders turning hopeful th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Although nearly 97 percent of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated from normal to excellent, excessive rainfall in some areas is becoming a concern. Certain fields have been inaccessible for months, preventing necessary fieldwork. Fungal diseases are spreading, but farmers are still inve...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia continues to dominate global agricultural export policy headlines after Moscow introduced a floating “damper” mechanism for export duties. The “damper” lowered the export tax on wheat shipments by about 20 percent for 8-14 October and pushed co...
Market Commentary: Lots of Uncertainties Except Certain Problems with China
There was no reversal of yesterday’s decline in commodity markets. The trend is your friend, and that beat out thoughts of a technical reversal. The market was down at the open and then came even more bearish outside influences. Commodity and financial market prices plunged as the t...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.13/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $4.985/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0675/bushel, down $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $275/short ton, down $1.9 f...
Market Commentary: Chop and Drop
Markets continue to chop around looking for some determinant of direction. In the absence of official reports, yesterday’s firmer PNW soybean basis levels provided a brief uplift but that faltered today. China gets mentioned as a possible source of the phantom demand but that seems politi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1825/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Firm on Bull Spreading (and Exports?); Cattle Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly firmer on Wednesday with rumors circulating that export business is getting done – perhaps aggressively – without the USDA to publish the daily “flash” export sales report. Bull spreading in corn and soybeans likely belies this activity, as does the r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0725/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.295/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278/short ton, up $1.1 from yes...
U.S. 2025/26 Crop Balance Sheets Growing Heavy
WPI’s latest forecasts for the U.S. corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum markets in 2025/26 are increasingly leaning bearish due to expected larger supplies and, except for corn, weaker demand. China’s continued absence from the soybean and sorghum markets is a major headwind for the a...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 29 September–03 October 2025 The market remained bearish under pressure from the new crop. However, the export market is fueling optimism. With relatively low export duties, Russian farmers may improve grain margins this year, supported by significant trade volumes...
Market Commentary: Grains Sink on Technicals While Soy Firms on Financial Aid Hopes
The CBOT saw diverging trade on Tuesday with the grains – corn and wheat – seeing weaker trade while soybeans and soyoil managed to push higher and further elevate crush margins. Technical factors were dominant in corn and wheat trade while soybeans and soyoil saw more support from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0675/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.22/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $276.9/short ton, down $0.2 f...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Saudi Arabia’s Tanmiah Food Company just opened a new feed production facility along with a poultry processing operation – both are part of the company’s $400 million expansion program in Saudi that will hel...
Market Commentary: Markets Cautiously Calm Amid Shutdown but Volatility Looms
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with traders increasingly aware of the ongoing government shutdown. Monday’s trade saw the ag markets trade somewhat cautiously with few willing to add much risk amid the reduced USDA data (we say “reduced” and not “eliminated”...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1275/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.1775/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $277.1/short ton, down $...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Argentina’s corn planting advanced 7.4 percentage points over the past week and reached 19.8 percent of the 7.8 MHa projected for the season. Favorable soil moisture continues to support early planting and put progress roughly 7 points ahead of last year. However, western, cent...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Central and Western Europe saw beneficial and widespread storms last week and over the weekend that aided soil moistures and the fall crop planting outlook. The rains did elevate concerns for planting delays in some areas, however, especially with temperatures cooling down a...
Market Commentary: Limping Home After a Dreary Week
Friday involved relatively lower volume and modest price changes as new inputs remain limited. And it wasn’t really due to the lack of USDA reports due to the shutdown since they may not have involved anything market moving. Harvest is progressing, competitors have ample supplies, and buy...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1525/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.18/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $278.6/short ton, down $0.7...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.1475/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2375/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $279.3/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Tweet Yields Another Rally and Perhaps a Floor
After yesterday’s charge forward in soybeans and a lower close in the overnight, optimists on a trade deal with China again took over and brought another higher close that this time infected both the corn and wheat markets. As stated in Matt’s adjacent analysis, this seems overwroug...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Rally on Trump Post About China Negotiations
CBOT markets - and the soy complex in particular - staged a substantial rally Wednesday afternoon after President Trump’s positive comments on reopening ag product trade with China. President Trump posted on social media that he intends to challenge China’s President Xi on the latte...
Summary of Futures
Dec 25 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Wheat closed at $5.0925/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Dec 25 Soymeal closed at $273.6/short ton, up $0.3 from y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 22–26 September 2025 The Russian grains market remained stable with a slightly bearish tone, particularly for corn, which led declines amid ongoing harvests and steady export flows. Barley and corn weakness is expected to pressure feed wheat prices. Peas are also un...