Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Product demand in the soy complex has also been a huge negative factor recently with uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy causing a sharp redu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 12 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 236,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 3 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lower taxes and less regulation but is less enthralled with his attraction to tariffs. In fact, the tariffs are expected to be inflationary, cau...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days or possibly even weeks. National polls indicate a tight race between candidates Trump and Harris, but betting markets tell a different story...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.1 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $4.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $2.1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 244,400 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 12 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets
The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit taking. Wheat futures were higher on poor U.S. conditions ratings and drought conditions in the Southern Plains, despite forecasts of rains this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Market Commentary: Poor Conditions Rally Wheat; Big Crop(s) Pressure Soybeans; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with the wheat market in the lead on worrying crop conditions and persistent drought in the HRW growing region. USDA’s initial crop ratings for the winter wheat crop were the second lowest for the week since the mid-1980s, which means the rains in the two-w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.6525/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, down $3 from y...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
Market Commentary: Oil Drags CBOT Lower; Hogs Hit New Highs; Cattle Rise After Report
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with the sharp decline in crude oil futures dragging soyoil, the broader soy complex, and corn and wheat lower. There was little fresh fundamental news to guide commodity futures for the day, which gave the oil market’s plunge an outsized influence on ag fu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.74/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, down $1 fr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
Market Commentary: Mix Week Reflecting Fundamentals
Yesterday’s bullish Export Sales report was followed by more sales of corn and soybeans today. However, there had already been sufficient gains in the futures market this week and current sales are simply on track with USDA’s forecast. The trade does not want to get too far out in front of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8775/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 11-17, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 276,500 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, down $4.6 from y...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rise on Export Data; Soybeans Fall on South American Weather
Exports remain the name of the commodity game this week with all eyes on the UDSA daily “flash” export sales announcements as well as this week’s weekly Export Sales report. On Thursday, both of those factors did not disappoint and gave the already bullish corn market another boost. USDA report...
Market Commentary: More Exports, More Gains
A sixth straight day of daily “flash” export sales announcements from USDA sent CBOT corn and soybean futures higher with funds covering shorts and commercials positioning bullishly too. The export demand for corn caught the market by surprise and has created the current rally, while the season...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.76/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $317.7/short ton, down $0.6 from yes...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Market Commentary: Exports Rally Corn, Soybeans but Pressure Wheat; Hogs Hit New Contract Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade again to start the week with a slate of fresh daily “flash” export sales announcements supporting corn and soybeans, as did a generally positive Export Inspections report. That helped soybeans recover from Friday’s drubbing and allowed the corn market to follow through...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.81/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, up $2.7 from yest...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.7/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 4-10, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 393,100 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 30 pe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday on Exports, Weather
Bears started out the week in full control of the CBOT, but their grip loosened on Thursday and bulls managed to post at turnaround in several markets. Chief among the turnaround was corn futures where an early dip below $4.00 in the December contract triggered short covering and some commercia...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.1/short ton, up $4.4 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, up $1.9 from yesterd...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.91/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $3.5 f...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.46/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $7.9...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipment of 531,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 perc...
Market Commentary: Biofuel and Trade Policy Worries Pressure CBOT along with Dollar Strength
The CBOT saw another day of pronounced weakness with expectations for larger global soybean and wheat production and stocks in 2025 weighing on values. Product demand in the soy complex has also been a huge negative factor recently with uncertainty over U.S. biofuels policy causing a sharp redu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Market Commentary: Bearish Beat Goes On
The CBOT was essentially all red on Wednesday with traders finding little support from either the fundamental or technical components of commodity price analysis. Wheat was the downside leader for the day as a strong dollar, improving conditions in the Plains, and increasingly tepid exports fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 12 November)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONPakistan has decided to allow the importation of GMO soybeans from the U.S. – critics say that this decision was made without proper risk assessment and was only done due to pressure from large industrial companies. Forty...
Market Commentary: CBOT Slips as Demand Worries Overtake Supply-Side Surprises
The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...
Market Commentary: Somewhat Tumultuous WASDE
The November WASDE report usually involves some tweaking of the numbers by USDA, and that is all it mostly was today, but with some quirky impacts. First, there were a few surprises but not dramatic ones and yet the report spurred larger to outsized volume in trading across the grain and oilsee...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soyoil Rally on Export Numbers; Cattle Gain on Macro Strength
The CBOT was mixed on Thursday following the news of Donald Trump’s election to President of the United States with markets, particularly corn and cattle futures, seeing continued support from “risk on” trade. It’s not necessarily that traders and investors are particularly excited about Trump’...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 25-31, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 374,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 236,900 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 3 percent from the previous week...
Market Commentary: Mild Election Impacts
Outside markets closed higher and the dollar was up, but not because of bullishness over Mr. Trump’s victory. The business sector likes his pledge for lower taxes and less regulation but is less enthralled with his attraction to tariffs. In fact, the tariffs are expected to be inflationary, cau...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 October – 1 November 2024Russian analysts revised the 2024 Russian crop downwards to 128.8 MMT without newly occupied territories but with Crimea which was occupied a decade ago. This new forecast is down 11 percent from the previous year. Wheat is at 85.6 MMT – down 8...
Market Commentary: Election Day Brings CBOT Gains
It’s election day in the U.S. and the nation will decide on new leadership for the White House and Congress, though results may not be available for days or possibly even weeks. National polls indicate a tight race between candidates Trump and Harris, but betting markets tell a different story...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0175/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $0.1 from ye...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGIONTunisia will shortly receive a shipment of 33,000 MT of U.S. corn, the first shipment in quite a while. The U.S. Grains Council office in Tunis says that they expect more U.S. corn imports in the coming weeks.Morocco has...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.6875/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.6/short ton, up $4.3 from yest...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.145/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.68/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.3/short ton, down $4.2 fro...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.945/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $299.5/short ton, down $2.1 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 18-24, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 411,400 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 244,400 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 12 percent from the previ...
Market Commentary: End-of-Month Trade, Profit Taking Create Mixed Markets
The CBOT was mixed in moderate-volume trade on Wednesday with markets across the board seeing impacts from end-of-month position adjusting and profit taking. Wheat futures were higher on poor U.S. conditions ratings and drought conditions in the Southern Plains, despite forecasts of rains this...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21 – 25 October 2024The Russian grain markets remained stable on the export front and slightly bearish after recent peaks. Domestic prices are trying to catch up with export price levels and even in Siberia, prices were recovering. Global pricing effects export prices in...
Market Commentary: Poor Conditions Rally Wheat; Big Crop(s) Pressure Soybeans; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with the wheat market in the lead on worrying crop conditions and persistent drought in the HRW growing region. USDA’s initial crop ratings for the winter wheat crop were the second lowest for the week since the mid-1980s, which means the rains in the two-w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.705/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.6525/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, down $3 from y...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, and AFRICA – MEA REGIONTurkey’s wheat production is seen dropping by 5.5 percent to 20.8 MMT according to Turksat estimates. It also sees barley production down by 11 percent to 8.2 MMT and corn down by 8 percent to 8.3 MMT. Soybean prod...
Market Commentary: Oil Drags CBOT Lower; Hogs Hit New Highs; Cattle Rise After Report
The CBOT was mostly lower for the day with the sharp decline in crude oil futures dragging soyoil, the broader soy complex, and corn and wheat lower. There was little fresh fundamental news to guide commodity futures for the day, which gave the oil market’s plunge an outsized influence on ag fu...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1075/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.74/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $304.8/short ton, down $1 fr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Weather Argentina saw continued rainfall throughout last week and so far during October, nearly all of the country’s agricultural regions experienced at least some precipitation. In areas like the Nucleus Region, totals have even exceeded historical averages for October. This rainfall has...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...
Market Commentary: Mix Week Reflecting Fundamentals
Yesterday’s bullish Export Sales report was followed by more sales of corn and soybeans today. However, there had already been sufficient gains in the futures market this week and current sales are simply on track with USDA’s forecast. The trade does not want to get too far out in front of the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1525/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.69/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8775/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $305.8/short ton, down $4.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 11-17, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 532,900 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 276,500 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 45 percent fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.815/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, down $4.6 from y...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Rise on Export Data; Soybeans Fall on South American Weather
Exports remain the name of the commodity game this week with all eyes on the UDSA daily “flash” export sales announcements as well as this week’s weekly Export Sales report. On Thursday, both of those factors did not disappoint and gave the already bullish corn market another boost. USDA report...
Market Commentary: More Exports, More Gains
A sixth straight day of daily “flash” export sales announcements from USDA sent CBOT corn and soybean futures higher with funds covering shorts and commercials positioning bullishly too. The export demand for corn caught the market by surprise and has created the current rally, while the season...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 October 2024Russian grain markets remained slightly bullish but not as bullish as a week ago. The biggest concern of all grain exporters is a “threat” from the Russian Grain Export Union that October export prices should be $240/MT and that to make this happen the...
Market Commentary: Exports, Weather Concerns Push CBOT Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday as export demand continues to fuel what looks like the start of a demand-led swing higher in the markets. Tuesday marked the fifth straight business day with a “flash” export sales announcement for corn, with Mexico responsible for essentially all of the de...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.165/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.76/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.9175/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $317.7/short ton, down $0.6 from yes...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
The Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFRICA – MEA REGIONAfrica spends $75 billion every year importing cereals according to the African Development Bank – 50 MMT being wheat – 27 MMT imported by North Africa, 12 MMT by East Africa and 9 MMT by West Africa. Wheat...
Market Commentary: Exports Rally Corn, Soybeans but Pressure Wheat; Hogs Hit New Contract Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade again to start the week with a slate of fresh daily “flash” export sales announcements supporting corn and soybeans, as did a generally positive Export Inspections report. That helped soybeans recover from Friday’s drubbing and allowed the corn market to follow through...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.095/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7225/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.81/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.3/short ton, up $2.7 from yest...
The Mercosur Regional Analysis
WeatherThe week continued with rain in some areas of the agricultural region that spread water across almost the entire region, ending a 10-day period of instability. The exceptions were the western part of Buenos Aires Province, which received only a few millimeters despite needing more, and t...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 15 October, funds reversed their short covering trends and emerged as net sellers in the soybean, corn, and soymeal markets after the bearish October WASDE and shift towards wetter weather in South America. Funds doubled their short position in soybean futures and are now short a small...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.7/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.6/short ton, down $2.5 fr...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Outweighs Demand
There was modest to lower volume generally today, except in wheat where there was a gang beating. Wheat closed lower in the overnight, opened lower this morning, and sealed the deal with losses at the close. Soyoil was treated similarly but soybeans and corn each were higher in the overnight an...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for the period October 4-10, 2024.Wheat: Net sales of 504,100 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 393,100 MT were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 30 pe...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Thursday on Exports, Weather
Bears started out the week in full control of the CBOT, but their grip loosened on Thursday and bulls managed to post at turnaround in several markets. Chief among the turnaround was corn futures where an early dip below $4.00 in the December contract triggered short covering and some commercia...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0675/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.895/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8875/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $318.1/short ton, up $4.4 from yest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0475/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.85/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.8/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $313.7/short ton, up $1.9 from yesterd...
Market Commentary: Corn Rallies on Export Sales; Bean Bears Return in Heavy Options Trade
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with corn rising after the USDA reported “flash” export sales of over 1.9 MMT of corn to Mexico and unknown destinations combined. The news put a bid under futures and caused corn spreads to firm slightly with funds buying back some of what they sold earlier this...
The Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7 – 11 October 2024The world has been watching the 2024 Russian grain harvest forecasts, especially wheat production. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture was not making any sharp moves in one direction or the other, while domestic analysts have revised the 2024 grain crop...
Market Commentary: Bears Win Again, but Crush Report Buoys Soybeans
Bears were in control of the CBOT for the second straight day with very few bullish news items seeming to exist on the horizon. Between improving weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere, lower threat of a La Nina this year, strong harvest progress in the U.S., large crop forecasts for Bra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria decided to bar French companies from its wheat import tenders due to France’s support for Morocco’s continued sovereignty over the Western Sahara region. All tender participants have been advis...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0125/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.91/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $3.5 f...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.46/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $7.9...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipment of 531,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 perc...