Trade at the CBOT was dynamic and interesting on Monday with early-day weakness sending wheat, corn, and soybeans all to fresh lows while late-day short-co...

Since the early 2000s, there has been plenty of discussion about whether monetary policy is too loose or too tight given the underlying economic conditions...

NGT Test this Week The Belgian presidency of the EU will make its last effort to obtain approval of a regulatory proposal for new genomic techniques. If it...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.71/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...

U.S. beef production has been falling but pork output is rising. The higher price of beef has made the consumption of competing animal proteins like pork a...

Wheat  It was a short trading week in Argentina with holidays on Monday, Thursday, and Friday and the CBOT being closed on Wednesday, all of which led...

U.S. Cattle and calves in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on June 1, 2024 - less than 1 percent below 2023. &nb...

The CBOT was mixed to close the week with traders seeming to take a break after this week’s generally bearish price action. There was notable short p...

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. Placements were the only category off from the consensus expectation. The range of estimates was a l...

The Market For the week, the July soybean contract fell 1.6 percent in value and is trading at 1160.5/bushel, its lowest level in three years. November soy...

Poor Feed for the Golden Goose Most people understand basic economics, but not all the subtleties of its principles. Competition makes sense, unless someon...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.35/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.615/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales and Shipments for June 7-13, 2024. Wheat:  Net sales of 589,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 Export shipments of 363,600 MT were primar...

Today, everything bled red except live cattle. Generally favorable U.S. weather overhangs the market until USDA’s Acreage Report is issued next week...

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 June...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.3975/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.7275/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close...

Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain p...

The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday blunting trading volume and overall price action. Corn and soybeans settled higher a...

The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Wednesday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.82/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. ...

Tight Margins Prevent Disruption While populist politicians complain about corporate greed, the businesses with long term success in agriculture achieve th...

When President Biden announced higher Section 232 tariffs on a list of Chinese goods (see WPI 14 May) anxieties were raised over possible retaliation (see...

U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleu...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to...

Final planted numbers are unknown until late this month and the spread on that outcome is wide, but weather is only a theoretical threat to what could be a...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.915/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close...

At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the Afri...

Wheat Wheat planting is progressing rapidly. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 43 percent of the estimated 6.2 Mha have been sown. The Rosario...

Grains and soybeans followed the overnight close by trading lower at the open. The early stretch just saw fractional declines but later in the morning, cor...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.1275/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Early this month, USDA proposed the Poultry Grower Payments Systems and Capital Improvement Systems rule, the third in a series of livestock and poultry ma...

The Market If it is better to be lucky than good, it is better to close higher even if only barely. July soybeans rose a half-penny this week or 0.04 perce...

Export Sales and Shipments for May 31-June 6, 2024. Wheat:  A total of 115,300 MT in sales were carried over from the 2023/2024 marketing year, which...

Corn, the soybean complex and SRW all closed higher on the day with Kansas City and Minneapolis fractionally lower. For the trading week thus far, July cor...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.2/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Ju...

Cutting Food Waste USDA issued a national strategy yesterday that aims to cut food waste by 50 percent by 2030. According to the agency, food waste in the...

This week’s WASDE upped the projections for pork and broiler production and trimmed the beef forecast slightly at 5 million pounds.  The beef f...

The CBOT was steady heading into Wednesday’s WASDE report from the USDA and largely remained so after the report’s release. Corn and soybeans s...

Farm Bill Prospects Although the odds are long, there are some political dynamics that benefit the completion of a farm bill. Republicans barely control th...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5425/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.17/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and r...

The CBOT’s trade was primarily focused on last-minute preparation and positioning for the WASDE, which USDA will release at Noon ET on Wednesday. Tha...

Food as National Security Journalists like Greg Ip and Noah Smith have identified the West’s trifecta of tools to counter China: industrial policy, e...

As WPI reported on 13 May, both the House and Senate agriculture committees released broad outlines of their respective farm bill drafts. The House Committ...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.495/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.265/bushel, up $0.19 from yesterday's close. ...

U.S. wheat prices and export sales are moving as expected. Nearing the end of the marketing year, old crop wheat was cheaper and now new crop wheat as harv...

The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and the soy complex seeing some cautious support, mostly concentrated in old crop markets, while the massive...

At a campaign event in Arizona, former President Trump floated the idea of using tariffs on countries who don’t cooperate with the U.S. on illegal im...

As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn wh...

Goodbye Green Deal/F2F The EU’s ruling elites are still assessing the impacts of yesterday’s victories by conservative parties that they had de...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5175/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.075/bushel, down $0.2 from yesterday's close. ...

Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been volatile for decades but when technology and investment should have been making it less so, it has instead g...

Corn This week, the Argentine government confirmed that the sworn export sales declarations (DJVE) will not be extended, unlike the previous administration...

Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilsee...

The Market For the week, front month contracts saw a 4 percent decline (-25.75 cents) in soybeans (1179.25/bushel), a 1 percent decline (-$4) in soymeal ($...

Today’s jobs report indicated that total non-farm payrolls rose 272,000 in May, easily beating the consensus pre-report expectation of 180,000. Total...

UN Secretary General António Guterres has called fossil fuel firms the “grandfathers of climate chaos” and argues that advertising limit...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.275/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&n...

Corn, soybeans, and wheat were both higher in the overnight session and added to that mood today except only HRW amongst the wheats held on to gains. For c...

Total cattle slaughter last week during the shortened Memorial Day holiday week was down 67,000 head from the prior week and down 28,000 from last year. Ho...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.395/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Export Sales and Shipments for May 24-30, 2024   Wheat:  The 2023/2024 crop year for U.S. wheat is winding down:  Net sales reductions...

The CBOT seems to be locked in a game of bearish limbo with markets battling to see which can bend itself beneath the lowest levels of technical support. G...

Farm Bill Prognosis A recent survey of economists indicated most do not believe a new U.S. farm bill will be enacted this year. Some speculated it would be...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.3925/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4675/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close...

Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global mark...

The CBOT was once again mostly lower with traders shedding position length and getting short as U.S. farmers make solid strides seeding the 2024 crop. Ther...

U.S. – Brazil Dialogue The 22nd Plenary of the U.S. – Brazil Commercial Dialogue will be held in September to discuss reducing non-tariff barri...

Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine,...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5825/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Yesterday, the Treasury Department released its Initial Guidance on registration for the Clean Fuel Production tax credit known as Section 45Z. To qualify...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized...

The CBOT was almost strictly lower to start the new month with corn and soybeans leading the way on expectations (that were proved correct) of strong plant...

In addition to attacking China, populist politicians on both the American right and left are finding audience encouragement when they attack big companies...

Brazil produces more than a third of the world’s oranges and controls 70 percent of global exports. This drought, plus disease and other issues has c...

Mexico’s Presidential election was held this weekend; the Mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum, won an overwhelming majority.  President-ele...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.7275/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close...

Regional News  The EU Commission imposed an import tax on Russian wheat, corn, products derived from their processing, and feed. The duties range from...

Wheat  Determining how much wheat will be planted in Argentina is difficult. Production margins have gone from very bad to very good, thereby encourag...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Usually, it’s the month of March that comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, but commodity markets chose to follow that pattern in May, which c...

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) faces a contract expiration on 30 September, now only four months away. The union has signaled its...

The Market The trade shook off earlier concerns about Brazilian flooding and instead focused this week on the good start to the U.S. soybean crop, and Arge...

Brussels versus Beijing: Beijing may launch an investigation into whether the EU is dumping pork into China. Brussels opened an anti-dumping probe on vanil...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4625/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.785/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales and Shipments for May 17-23, 2024.   Wheat:  Net sales reductions of 60,900 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably...

The market open is very telltale about the trade’s beliefs. It can open hard and fast in one direction or another, or it can move in small increments...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.81/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close.&n...

China has just banned beef exports from the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado over ractopamine. A shipment of frozen omasum (the third stomach in a ruminant a...

Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting pr...

As noted yesterday, USDA estimates that the food category incurring the most inflation this year in the U.S. will be fresh vegetables. Part of the problem...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5525/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close...

Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potentia...

Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.625/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $7.0025/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

May is World Trade Month and President Biden declared last week World Trade Week. USDA described it as the perfect opportunity to highlight the importance...

USDA’s Economic Research Service issued its updated forecast for food-related inflation in 2024 and for the most part it involves good news. Year-to-...

As WPI reported, the House Agriculture Committee marked-up the farm bill last Thursday, 23 May. Going into the mark-up, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said the...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zi...

USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed is down one percent for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.6 million on May 1, 2024.  Placement...

Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South Amer...

U.S. financial markets are closed on Monday, 27 May and consequently there will be no Ag Perspectives report on that day. WPI's analysis reports will resum...

The big surprise in this week’s CFTC report was the expansion of funds’ short position in corn by over 54,000 contracts. Funds had been aggress...

The Market For the week, July soybeans rose 20 cents (1.6 percent) to 1248/bushel. The November soybean contract added 16.25 cents. U.S. soybean futures we...

Standards not Tariffs: The complaint against China and some other countries is that production practices are more highly distorted by government policies t...

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today. The numbers came in very close to the pre-report expectations, making the report neural. Placements...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.9725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&...

 Export Sales and Shipments for May 10-16, 2024.   Wheat: Net sales of 17,900 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 77 percent from the p...

Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened t...

Senate Would Reject Obama President Biden has withdrawn his nominee to become the Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, Nelson Cunningham. Cunningham has stell...

Cattle on Feed Report USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattl...

The big development at the CBOT on Wednesday was the lower close and apparent “hook reversal” in wheat futures, which initially traded higher b...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6125/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.93/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Trade and Commerce Divide Populist Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Connecticut) wants her Democratic colleagues to undermine corporate America by disrupting...

Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despi...

Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the foreca...

The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with corn and the soy complex finding pressure after Monday’s Crop Progress report reflected better-than-expected plant...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.58/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.975/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. ...

The Senate Banking Committee’s subcommittee on Economic Policy will be holding a hearing tomorrow entitled "Protecting Consumers’ Pocketbooks:...

Activists have been pressuring the Biden Administration to take more action against Big Ag. The latest is an attack on egg production. Opponents are blamin...

USDA’s Economic Research Service has produced an expansive study entitled, World Agricultural Production, Resource Use, and Productivity, 1961–...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreemen...

Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging...

Ultra-Processed Dog Food The number of pets spiked during COVID but the overall trend has been more domestic animals and fewer human babies. Pets are lower...

Last week on Friday 17 May, WPI outlined the commodity program proposals in the House farm bill draft. Below are some key changes in the conservation and t...

New Zealand famously is a country with more sheep than people, but the competition is slipping in favor of humans. The problem is the economics of wool, wh...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.605/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, up $0.375 from yesterday's close. ...

Regional News  Russia’s agriculture ministry announced that 900,000 hectares of crops will need to be reseeded this year after several frosts/fr...

Corn  Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies...

The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their...

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.&nb...

The Market Despite worries about used cooking oil imports, slow exports, and a drop in the NOPA crush, July soybeans closed the week up 9 cents (0.73 perce...

As we reported Monday, 13 May, the full draft of the House Agriculture Committee’s farm bill was expected to be released today, and it was. Following...

There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly highe...

Going into the summer, a big question for meat has been: how will consumer demand hold up? This is especially the case with steadily increasing beef prices...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.6325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&nb...

China Retaliation? The assumption is that China will retaliate against U.S. agriculture for any new tariffs applied to Chinese goods by President Biden und...

The CBOT started out firm again in the overnight session but quickly turned lower once the day session started. The reason seemed to be “sell the fac...

China understandably responded harshly to the Biden Administration’s sharp increase in tariffs on EV’s and components. However, there is not mu...

Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn productio...

Russian Grain Markets: 6–10 May 2024 This year’s spring weather in Russia is abnormal; last week frost was registered across European Russia ra...

The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during t...

The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties im...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.725/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Tariff Man’s Competitor Former President Donald Trump prided himself on his use of tariffs, which candidate Biden criticized but now President Biden...

U.S. agriculture representatives returning from a trade mission to India are all excited about their prospects for boosting sales to the world’s most...

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on th...

In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerne...

The slow roll of the details of the farm bill continues. On Friday, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) released a title-b...

Psychobiotic Nonsense One component of a book called The Psychobiotic Revolution is scientifically reasonable – that the human gut biome contains tri...

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. ...

U.S. and Mexican dairy industry representatives met and renewed their commitment to “collaborate and advocate for mutually beneficial dairy policies...

Regional News  Frosts in Russia’s central, southern, and Volga regions have halted spring planting efforts, which will likely contribute to lowe...

Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major flood...

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4...