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Farmer Sympathies with Albania

Euractiv reports that 30 percent of the agricultural exporters in Albania have gone bankrupt. The cause? The rapid appreciation of the national currency, t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023  Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to al...

Bent, Not Broken

The recent BRICS+ meeting in South Africa highlighted some of the animosity toward a world order long dominated by countries comprising just a minority of...

Food Service Energy Footprint

There is a lot of discussion around energy use and emissions from the agriculture and food sectors. There are three types of emissions that various models...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8675/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.005/bushel, down $0.165 from yesterday's close.&n...

Minor Reserves

Norway will reportedly begin spending $6 million/year through the end of the decade to purchase 15,000 MT grain each year for a strategic reserve. Although...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat harvest of 27.5 MMT this year is still about 2.6 M...

Following the Stars under Cloudy Skies

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his address to the Federal Reserve’s annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. La...

Vegetable Market Uniqueness

Unlike grains, oilseeds and livestock products, the U.S. is increasingly import dependent for fresh vegetables. About one-third of the U.S. fresh vegetable...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.17/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close.&nb...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Insurance companies involved in offering policies for Russian oil traversing the Black Sea have increased premiums by 1 percent to 1.2-...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The trend for Argentina’s wheat fields is that good plots continue to improve while stressed crops continue to worsen. The country saw rain las...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.2175/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Dog Days of Summer

If not for the ProFarmer Crop Tour, most observers would be looking outside of the agricultural commodity markets for some entertainment this week. And the...

Food Inflation Forecast: Highs and Lows

USDA released its August food CPI forecast today; the expectation for the rest of the year is range bound with a mid-point of 5.9 percent. The most interes...

His Excellency Hyperbole; Expanding USMCA

His Excellency Hyperbole In group dynamics, all manner of threats are used to try and compel action. These include setting deadlines, threatening adverse c...

Oilseed Highlights – Meal Driven Train

The Market The switch in early August to more promising weather for U.S. soybeans has now turned back hot and dry with reasonable impacts on prices. For th...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for August 11-17, 2023   Wheat:  Net sales of 406,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 13 percent from the...

Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages

You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center repor...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8825/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close.&...

More BRICS, Same Problems

The BRICS Group, a club of nations with the goal of tilting the international order away from the West, has invited six countries to join and make it an un...

Livestock Roundup: Livestock and the Farm Bill

Where do livestock issues fit into the coming farm bill debate? With the exception of dairy programs, livestock is always a moving target. In the 1996 farm...

August Cold Storage Report

July 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from June and were 4.2 percent below July 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once agai...

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks

The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River por...

BRICS Differ; EU Agriculture Policy Update

BRICS Differ In the adjacent article on BRICS Dominate, it is noted how the five key countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting this we...

BRICS Domination

The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.905/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.3975/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023  Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growi...

Ag Tech and the Farm Computer Usage Survey

Last week, WPI previewed the Farm Computer Usage and Ownership report. It has been released and is worth a re-visit given the implications for precision ag...

Rejecting Progress; Trump Out-Protections; EATS Failure

Rejecting Progress Two decades ago, the WTO held its Fifth Ministerial in Cancún, Mexico. At the time, Mexico’s campesinos or peasant farmers...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.795/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.275/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

China Flips on Food

Washington goes paranoid over import dependence on microchips and EV’s, but not food despite a recent trade deficit in grub. Nations that have experi...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC said it is ready to act as a re-export center for Russ...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.825/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.255/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Feast or Famine

The COVID supply chain meltdown created anxiety over the availability of agricultural inputs. This compelled many operators to look forward and lock in the...

Argentina Elections and Trade implications

Argentina has an upcoming Presidential election in October. Candidates in Argentina run in an open, or what is called in the U.S. a “jungle,” p...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics After Argentina’s elections and currency devaluation, it experienced another week filled with rumors and uncertainty. Financial and pa...

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Pressure in the American futures markets continued to drive world wheat values lower last week, with the exception for Friday’s s...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol)...

Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory: Higher Placements Again!

USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11 million head...

Cattle on Feed

USDA reported that U.S. Cattle on Feed was down 2 percent to on August 1, 2023 to total 11 million head in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head.&nb...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.93/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.39/bushel, up $0.2375 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseed Highlights - Bounce off the Bottom

The Market Early August delivered cooler air and rain showers, setting up good survival conditions for what is expected to be a return of heat and dryness,...

Friends on IPEF; Dropping Like BRICS; Dispute Acquiescence

Friends on IPEF The Washington Post is generally a friendly newspaper when it comes to the Biden Administration but even it could not countenance the White...

Market Commentary: Hot but it’s Not

For the bull’s, let us count the ways: Midwest weather has turned back hot and dry. Russia is blowing up Ukraine’s grain export capacity; the...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8575/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 23 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for August 4-10, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 359,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 37 percent from the previous we...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; analysts’ pre-report estimates peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 August at 98.4 pe...

Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps

The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offer...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.815/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $5.9775/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023  The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread o...

Rice Constrained

The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice...

Ag Tech and the Farm Computer Usage Survey

On Thursday of this week, USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) will issue a relatively obscure report: Farm Computer Usage and Ownership. Que...

Trade Deficit Focus; Measuring Up China

Trade Deficit Focus The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services declined slightly in June for the second month in a row but the overall annual number is...

Slow Formal Meat Uptake

Sub-Saharan Africa is very diverse and defies a singular stereotype. Income ranges from the Seychelles off the eastern coast at nearly $30,000 per capita,...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.755/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $5.985/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close.&n...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s National Federation of Millers has advised that current w...

No More Mr. Nice Guy; Food System Lies

No Mr. Nice Guy President Biden has kept many of his predecessor’s market access barriers but some of his supporters said that at least it is “...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8775/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.16/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Forex Commodity Business

Exchange rates and the commodity trade are inextricably mixed. Multiple recent developments are forcing board room recalculations as to where forex is goin...

Ag Politics on the Spectrum

Political scientists and theoreticians have long debated the shape of the political spectrum; is it a straight line from left to right? Or is it a curve wh...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics and Politics This weekend, Argentina’s primary elections were held to determine candidates for the general elections scheduled for Oct...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Moldova’s corn production for 2023 will triple in size from the prior year and reach 2.1 MMT, according to government estimates...

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month.  The first survey-based soybean yi...

WASDE Corn

USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more th...

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat produc...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8725/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.2675/bushel, down $0.11 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Oilseed Highlights – WASDE Strengthens the Floor

The Market Today’s USDA August WASDE was bullish because it showed fewer soybeans, and the market reacted by shaving almost 1 percent off the Novembe...

Land Values and Cash Rents

USDA’s annual crop land values and farm rents survey was released last week; crop land values in 2023 average $5,460 per acre. Farm real estate value...

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Costs See Sharp Drop in July After a Sizable Uptick in June Food prices have whipsawed this summer after seeing a steady climb in Q2. A...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9625/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.3775/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Calm before the Calm

Early pattern recognition on the CBOT today ahead of tomorrow’s August WASDE report - bottom line no drama. Volume was slack, except in lean hogs, an...

Livestock Roundup: A New Phase for Livestock and Meat

Last week, WPI reported on the ongoing fertility problems in the broiler breeding flock which is costly to the vertically integrated broiler sector that op...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for July 28-August 3, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 567,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024--a marketing-year high--were up 35...

Trade Without Industry; Content Moderation; Shipless Black Sea

Trade Without Industry If the Biden Administration were doing industry’s bidding, it would be negotiating trade agreements with real increases in mar...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9425/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.35/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close.&n...

Overweight Pig Farms

The value of hogs has fallen 15 percent over the past year and Quebec, Canada’s largest pig producing province, is trying to shed animals. The plan i...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 31 July–4 August 2023  The Russian grain market was predominantly bearish except for corn and rye. Weak domestic currency...

Market Commentary: Shorts Grow Cautious Ahead of WASDE

The CBOT posted a mixed day in light volume trade with preparations for the August WASDE that will come out this Friday driving much of the market action...

Big Picture Trade Snapshot

U.S agricultural exports through May (the June data will be released on Thursday) show that among the 213 categories tracked for agriculture, exports are d...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.5625/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Nov 23...

Similarities of Farming and Manufacturing

Debate around the reauthorization of the U.S. farm bill is focused on the legislation’s two major functions, domestic food assistance and farm price...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey reports it will allow the export of both corn and durum wheat this...

Sorghum Rules

In the context of conventional grain supply and demand, anomalies stand out and that unique breakout currently belongs to sorghum. Also known as milo (grai...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn In addition to implementing a differential exchange rate for corn, exporters were granted a 240-day extension to fulfill export permits that had shipm...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.575/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  India is reportedly considering importing as much as 9 MMT of wheat from Russia to fill its domestic needs, but WPI sources continue to...

Farm Fuel Cost Outlook

Over the past four weeks diesel prices have started to rally moving toward harvest season. The question remains whether this is temporary or a longer-term...

Updating Base Acres Under ARC and PLC

As WPI has reported periodically, there are several policy requests for the Title I programs under the new farm bill. Most of them would add costs, such as...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.33/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. ...

Oilseed Highlights – Nothing Dull This August

The Market Prices generally decline in August ahead of the harvest and that is generally true right now. November soybeans fell 3.5 percent this week and h...

Market Commentary: No Gapping Day

When the close is not too far off the open, the trading range is small and the volume is light, the price must be right. Markets continued their quotidian...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.935/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.27/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Roundup: Broiler Production Issues

Broiler production is up 1 percent on the year through the end of July. USDA’s 2023 annual projected total is 47.1 billion pounds, an increase of 1.9...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for July 21-27, 2023. Wheat:  Net sales of 421,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 81 percent from the previous week...

India's Prolific Agriculture

India is the world’s ninth largest agricultural exporter. The Biden Administration wants to negotiate with India on agricultural trade access, but Ne...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.0725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.5225/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 July 2023  The Russian grain market was predominantly bullish and a big reason was the bombing of Ukrainian Black S...

Farm Labor “Solutions”; Nebraska More Welcome Than China

Farm Labor “Solutions” The Biden Administration is labor-friendly, and all of the labor sector lobby groups are now working the farm bill reaut...

New Era for Sweet

The world’s two largest sugar producing and exporting nations, Brazil and India, also use part of their output to make ethanol. Brazil has a long his...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.0725/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.5225/bushel, down $0.135 from yesterday's close...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Morocco’s Forafric Global has bought 90 percent of Societe Industri...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.13/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $6.6575/bushel, down $0.385 from yesterday's close.&n...

Market Commentary: CBOT Sheds Weather Premium on Forecasts of Midwest Rains

Weekend weather model runs continued to show beneficial rains for the Midwest and Plains over the next two weeks with more moderate temperatures. The forec...

New Proposed Vehicle Fuel Standards and Ethanol

On Friday, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a new corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) schedule to increase mileage effic...

Pope Joins Africans; Take PASS on EATS

Pope Joins Africans As noted last Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s effort to offer succor to African leaders in the form of grain to gain...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The New Agro Dollar Finally, the government confirmed a new agricultural exchange rate – the “agro dollar” program, from which soybeans a...

Türkiye’s Higher Wheat Flour Exports

Türkiye is the world’s largest exporter of wheat flour, and the International Grains Council says the country will export a record 5.4 MMT in MY...

Market Commentary: Weather Rally Fades but Upside Risks Remain

The CBOT continued to drift lower on Friday with the fireworks from the rallies Monday and Tuesday fading on profit taking and more aggressive short sellin...

Preparing USDA for a Government Shutdown?

The House of Representatives passed the veterans and military construction appropriations bill yesterday (on a party line vote) but couldn’t move for...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close.&n...

Oilseed Highlights – Down but Not Out

The Market After November soybeans hit a new year high of 1428/bushel, they slid this week by 19.25 cents to 1382.5/bushel. With 20 percent of U.S. soybean...

Market Commentary: Wait and See

There was little new to guide the markets today. The foundation involves some big supply limits like droughty farm fields and suppression of Black Sea supp...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.4225/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.1275/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close.&...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for July 14-20, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 233,200 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 37 percent from the previous week,...

Beating AMLO at His Own Game

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador imposed a 50 percent tariff on white corn imports largely coming from the U.S. The rationale be...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.4825/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.2/bushel, down $0.4025 from yesterday's close.&nbs...

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Lower on Rains, Yield Estimates

Rain across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday helped push the CBOT lower with wheat leading the way. Nothing has changed about the near-te...

Ukraine Exports and EU Policy; Targeting Brazil

Ukraine Exports and EU Policy Russia is not just attacking Ukraine’s ability to export grains but may be threatening EU member states on the eastern...

Too Good to be True

A second impact analysis on the EU’s Green Deal targets for agriculture has now been reviewed and still the policy is hung up as policymakers debate...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 July 2023  Russian farmers continue harvesting winter crops and the progress is quite good with grain crop forecast...

July Cold Storage Report

June 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from May but were 1.8 percent greater than June 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once...

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday Doesn’t Change Bullish Backdrop

Bull markets need to be constantly “fed” with news and when that feeding slows or lapses, the rally does too. That’s largely what happene...

Black and White; Careful What You Ask

Black and White The European Food Safety Authority concluded after extensive research on the herbicide glyphosate that no “areas of critical concern&...

Exporting Food Insecurity

New Delhi is always one of the first capitals to raise the issue of food insecurity in international fora. It concurrently argues that agricultural subsidi...

Summary of Futures

Dec 23 Corn closed at $5.6525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 23 Wheat closed at $7.6025/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Dairy Outlook

With drought, a late July heat wave, and escalation of the war Ukraine, risk premiums are being priced into the markets – and dairy was no exception...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is facing continued daily power cuts as the very high temperatures...

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Danube Export Doubts

Monday’s trade was all about the weekend, which was hot and dry in the U.S. Midwest and featured more attacks by Russia on Ukrainian infrastructure...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  As noted everywhere, the biggest news in European regional grain markets this week is the end of the Black Sea grain export initiative...

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