European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, a vessel rammed a lock on the Moselle River in Germany, which led Euronext to suspend delivery at French delivery ports on the river for February 2025. The damage was sufficient that initial estimates cited “months” to repair the lock, but more recent news indicate...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the agreement in a press conference in Montevideo and cited the need for more free trade in the fa...
Food’s Fools Gold
Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable. Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but ha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s quota will be reduced to 11 MMT, or about one-third of last year’s 29-MMT quota. During the quota period, no shipments of corn, barley, and...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain unseasonably warm and dry, though the regions received beneficial rains at the end of last week. The Balkans saw unusually heavy rainfall from the same storm system. Polish protesters are planning on blocking the border with Ukr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts. The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
Post-Election Transatlantic
The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
TFP as Focus
The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year to 2.8 percent, versus 0.8 percent for the Euro Area and the 0.9 percent average for the non-U.S. G-7 countries. Competitiveness is said to be the primary term in Brussels these days, as it should be. The avera...
Olive Oil Volatility
Bloomberg notes the problems confronting small scale olive oil producers in Spain and Italy. Production is volatile and has been under duress from drought and climate change. As a result, the price has risen, attracting investors who are creating larger scale farms. The article says, “The Super...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...
Running Out of Protein
Europe ran out of energy when the Russian attack on Ukraine forced it to reduce imports from Russia. Europe lacks the ability to defend itself despite Russia’s threat on its eastern border. Now Europe is reducing its consumption of meat but failing to invest in meat alternatives that coul...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...
How Not to Resuscitate; Micromanagement
How Not to Resuscitate The European Parliament rejected the Commission’s proposal to allow tolerance levels for pesticide residues on some imported foods. Allowing a rat pack of politicians to directly decide scientific issues only contributes to domestic decline. Pesticides can be produc...
New EU Commission; America First Channels Sovereignty
New EU Commission European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made known her nominees to run the government in Brussels and the trade and agriculture portfolios have interesting selections. As was speculated previously, Christophe Hansen from Luxembourg has been picked for the agricultur...
Future of EU Agriculture; Future of U.S. Agriculture
Future of EU Agriculture Mercosur: Newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reiterated French opposition to a trade agreement with Mercosur at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil, saying he is seeking coalition partners for a blocking minority. Meanwhile, Mercosur leaders receive...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU is set to receive beneficial rains across its central region this week with some of that precipitation extending out into parts of western and eastern Europe. That will offer some relief from the drought for central Europe, but the north-central and eastern regions wi...
Competitor Opportunities (Future of EU Agriculture Part II)
Yesterday, we took an initial and cursory look at the outcome of the EU’s Strategic Dialogue on farm support. Basically, it says move away from area payments and focus resources on small farmers not large operations. Today, we look at it in more detail, the current spin on its outcome ver...
Competitiveness versus Social Goals; Food to Energy
Competitiveness versus Social Goals The EU completed a strategic dialogue on the future of the Continent’s agriculture and despite the June elections whittling down the power of the Greens, they have won the debate on farm subsidies. The farmers protesting ahead of this year’s elect...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought in Romania has affected over 2 Mha of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seed with about 40 percent of the crops having been destroyed. This is the fourth year of the past five in which drought has caused significant damage to Romania’s crops. Tunisia p...
Market Commentary: EU and U.S. Wheat Futures Decline Sharply; Soy Climbs on Sales to China
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday with wheat futures seeing the most interesting trade as they posted double-digit losses amid weak European markets and the threats posed by the Canadian railway strike. In contrast, soybeans scored another higher close with support coming from soyoil’...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania’s government announced a drought compensation program for farmers that will range from €200-250/ha with the total aid expense projected to reach €600 million. Algeria purchased durum wheat at prices of $328-332/MT FOB with the grain likely sourc...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new demand to slow the slide. Finding a bottom requires a supply shock, and the potential 20 MMT loss in Black Sea production due to drought is not...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Bounce Higher; Paris Wheat Falls; Livestock Futures Extend Gains
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly higher on Wednesday with soybeans and soymeal seeing a surprise turnaround in the afternoon after scoring new contract lows overnight. There was little fundamental news to drive the reversal in soybeans’ fortunes and WPI attributes most of the day&rsqu...
European Market Analysis
Regional News International demand for wheat has picked up after the recent decline in prices with Egypt and Algeria issuing large tenders last week. Egypt’s GASC set a deadline of 12 August for its large tender for over 3 MMT in several tranches, and early results indicate Ukraine...
Cocoa Consumption and Demand – How Will EUDR Affect the Industry?
Two weeks ago, WPI published an article looking at the supply-side factors in the cocoa market and what has been driving the massive price rally. With this article, we will look at the consumption and demand-side factors that are likely to influence the market and pricing for LH 2024 and into 2...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Market Commentary: CBOT Drifts Lower as Traders Prep for WASDE; Soyoil Rises on UCO Investigation
The CBOT/CME was mostly lower at midweek as traders prepare for what is expected to be a bearish WASDE report next week. The favorable shift in the U.S. weather is adding to negative sentiments for corn, soybeans, and the spring wheat crop and most are expecting large ending stocks increases in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s ag ministry says the country exported a record volume of 70 MMT of grain in 2023/24 but that total will fall to 60 MMT for 2024/25 due to smaller production. Last week, Tunisia purchased 125 KMT of soft wheat at prices ranging from $243.99-246/MT C&F...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan’s grain harvest is expected to coincide with heavy rains forecast for the next few weeks, which will likely cause a significant deterioration of the crop’s quality. Last week, the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring unit adjusted its 2024/...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
Doubling Down on Protectionism; Conflicting CAP Goals
Doubling Down on Protectionism Typically, the party platforms crafted every four years by Republicans and Democrats are equally meaningless. Some of their policy prescriptions become codified but many do not. But speakers at this week’s Republican Convention are leaving no doubt that &ldq...
Capital Investment and Productivity
While much of the focus on Europe relates to political instability in the EU, and threats from Russia, there are ample economic issues that also need to be addressed. This is true in both industrial production and agricultural output. European farms continue to lag their American counterparts i...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no rainfall, however, and Russia was also dry, except for light showers in the southern region. Dryness and heat building over eastern Europe re...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather trends remain unfavorable for crops with drought in Hungary and Romania hurting winter crop development and yield potential while wet weather slowed summer crop seedings across France, Germany, and Italy. Now, heatwaves across Spain, eastern Europe and the B...
NGT Test this Week; New Mexican Authorities
NGT Test this Week The Belgian presidency of the EU will make its last effort to obtain approval of a regulatory proposal for new genomic techniques. If it fails, the effort will be passed along to the Hungarian presidency that begins in July. Chances are, it will fail despite being watered dow...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission imposed an import tax on Russian wheat, corn, products derived from their processing, and feed. The duties range from €95-148/MT for various wheat varieties, €94/MT for grain corn, €93/MT for barley and rye, 3.2-64 percent for sunflower oil,...
Friday Policy Shorts
Standards not Tariffs: The complaint against China and some other countries is that production practices are more highly distorted by government policies than in the West. The Biden Administration and former President Donald Trump look to tariffs to solve the problem. By contrast, the EU erects...
Senate Would Reject Obama; Europe Lives on Crisps
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s agriculture ministry announced that 900,000 hectares of crops will need to be reseeded this year after several frosts/freeze events that destroyed crops in south/central Russia. The French spring crop area is forecast to include 1.44 Mha of corn (up 9.6...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Frosts in Russia’s central, southern, and Volga regions have halted spring planting efforts, which will likely contribute to lower yield potential this year. Russia has completed spring seeding on 16.9 Mha, or 30.2 percent of the planned area, so far. Some of these are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Flimsy Arguments; Bien SUR Pesticides
Flimsy Arguments Certain Americans are taking sides with Hamas in Gaza, arguing that it is Israel to blame. In a similar fashion, progressive groups focused on agriculture are calling on Washington to cease its bullying of Mexico on GMO corn. They defend Mexico City for pursuing “food sov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria purchased 200 KMT of hard wheat – rumored to originate in France – at $249-250/MT C&F. Turkey issued an international tender for the sale of 100 KMT of durum wheat to be exported – not imported – from the country. The winning bid cam...
Olive Oil Gets Tighter
Olive oil is a niche product, comprising just under one percent of total global vegetable oil production. It is also higher priced, and only becoming more so as production drops. Europe produces around 62 percent of global olive oil and supplies half the world trade. Production is primarily in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News ProZerno forecasts Russia’s 2024 total grain production will hit 135-136 MMT, down from 144.9 MMT in 2023. Wheat production is forecast to fall from 92.8 to 88 MMT this year, with barley production down from 21.1 to 18 MMT. Russia’s corn production should fall fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Early-morning frosts were reported across Poland down to France as crops are reaching growth stages that are sensitive to cold. It’s too early to say whether the cold snap will dent yields, but the 2024 crop continues to face weather challenges. Tunisia pur...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Wrong at the Top; Happy Talk
Wrong at the Top We admit as private policy analysts that sometimes we add 1+1 and get three. It turns out top government officials can make the same mistake. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack had mused aloud that China could be buying Brazilian corn and not U.S. corn in retaliation for state-level re...
European Market Analysis
Regional News On Monday morning, Russia announced that its 15 February – 30 June 2025 wheat export quota will be 10.6 MMT, slightly below the 11.0 MMT announced at the EEU meeting last month. Milling Wheat Global wheat markets continue to see pressure from slowing U.S. exports an...
Market Commentary: Some Bouncing Off the Week’s Lows
Except for soyoil and SRW, the market provided a rebound today for the agricultural commodity markets. Most contracts reflected their overnight closes. Key points for today and the week include the following: New contract lows were printed this week in soybeans, soyoil, SRW, and HRS. Only...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 December 2024By Matt HerringtonFreight markets – particularly the dry bulk sector - continue to see thin trade that is leaving rates in the doldrums. Demand and fresh inquiries remain light with vessel overcapacity further depressing rates. Vessel owners are continua...
Transatlantic Dynamic; Doubling Down
Transatlantic DynamicThose in U.S. agricultural trade policy agree with Donald Trump that the EU treats America badly. The large U.S. agricultural trade deficit with the EU has been growing at a compound annual growth rate of over 6 percent. Since WWII, the U.S. has subsidized Europe’s se...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, a vessel rammed a lock on the Moselle River in Germany, which led Euronext to suspend delivery at French delivery ports on the river for February 2025. The damage was sufficient that initial estimates cited “months” to repair the lock, but more recent news indicate...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad
Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the agreement in a press conference in Montevideo and cited the need for more free trade in the fa...
Food’s Fools Gold
Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable. Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but ha...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s quota will be reduced to 11 MMT, or about one-third of last year’s 29-MMT quota. During the quota period, no shipments of corn, barley, and...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain unseasonably warm and dry, though the regions received beneficial rains at the end of last week. The Balkans saw unusually heavy rainfall from the same storm system. Polish protesters are planning on blocking the border with Ukr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...
EU Studies Trading Houses
As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts. The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...
Post-Election Transatlantic
The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...
TFP as Focus
The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year to 2.8 percent, versus 0.8 percent for the Euro Area and the 0.9 percent average for the non-U.S. G-7 countries. Competitiveness is said to be the primary term in Brussels these days, as it should be. The avera...
Olive Oil Volatility
Bloomberg notes the problems confronting small scale olive oil producers in Spain and Italy. Production is volatile and has been under duress from drought and climate change. As a result, the price has risen, attracting investors who are creating larger scale farms. The article says, “The Super...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall
At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding. Milling Wheat Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...
Running Out of Protein
Europe ran out of energy when the Russian attack on Ukraine forced it to reduce imports from Russia. Europe lacks the ability to defend itself despite Russia’s threat on its eastern border. Now Europe is reducing its consumption of meat but failing to invest in meat alternatives that coul...
European Market Analysis
Regional News WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...
How Not to Resuscitate; Micromanagement
How Not to Resuscitate The European Parliament rejected the Commission’s proposal to allow tolerance levels for pesticide residues on some imported foods. Allowing a rat pack of politicians to directly decide scientific issues only contributes to domestic decline. Pesticides can be produc...
New EU Commission; America First Channels Sovereignty
New EU Commission European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made known her nominees to run the government in Brussels and the trade and agriculture portfolios have interesting selections. As was speculated previously, Christophe Hansen from Luxembourg has been picked for the agricultur...
Future of EU Agriculture; Future of U.S. Agriculture
Future of EU Agriculture Mercosur: Newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reiterated French opposition to a trade agreement with Mercosur at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil, saying he is seeking coalition partners for a blocking minority. Meanwhile, Mercosur leaders receive...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
WASDE Soybeans
WASDE SOYBEANS: USDA increased their estimate for global soybean ending stocks by 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million b...
WASDE Wheat
WASDE WHEAT: USDA increased their estimate for 2024/25 global wheat supplies by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks were more than offset by lower production. World wheat trade is raised 1.7 million tons to 216.5 million as higher exports for Australia, Canada,...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU is set to receive beneficial rains across its central region this week with some of that precipitation extending out into parts of western and eastern Europe. That will offer some relief from the drought for central Europe, but the north-central and eastern regions wi...
Competitor Opportunities (Future of EU Agriculture Part II)
Yesterday, we took an initial and cursory look at the outcome of the EU’s Strategic Dialogue on farm support. Basically, it says move away from area payments and focus resources on small farmers not large operations. Today, we look at it in more detail, the current spin on its outcome ver...
Competitiveness versus Social Goals; Food to Energy
Competitiveness versus Social Goals The EU completed a strategic dialogue on the future of the Continent’s agriculture and despite the June elections whittling down the power of the Greens, they have won the debate on farm subsidies. The farmers protesting ahead of this year’s elect...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Drought in Romania has affected over 2 Mha of wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seed with about 40 percent of the crops having been destroyed. This is the fourth year of the past five in which drought has caused significant damage to Romania’s crops. Tunisia p...
Market Commentary: EU and U.S. Wheat Futures Decline Sharply; Soy Climbs on Sales to China
The CBOT saw mixed trade on Wednesday with wheat futures seeing the most interesting trade as they posted double-digit losses amid weak European markets and the threats posed by the Canadian railway strike. In contrast, soybeans scored another higher close with support coming from soyoil’...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Romania’s government announced a drought compensation program for farmers that will range from €200-250/ha with the total aid expense projected to reach €600 million. Algeria purchased durum wheat at prices of $328-332/MT FOB with the grain likely sourc...
Market Commentary: Weather, Specs and Cheap Prices
The weather is bearish, except for spring wheat, and speculators are record short. Even having the cheapest grain in the world cannot spark enough new demand to slow the slide. Finding a bottom requires a supply shock, and the potential 20 MMT loss in Black Sea production due to drought is not...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Bounce Higher; Paris Wheat Falls; Livestock Futures Extend Gains
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly higher on Wednesday with soybeans and soymeal seeing a surprise turnaround in the afternoon after scoring new contract lows overnight. There was little fundamental news to drive the reversal in soybeans’ fortunes and WPI attributes most of the day&rsqu...
European Market Analysis
Regional News International demand for wheat has picked up after the recent decline in prices with Egypt and Algeria issuing large tenders last week. Egypt’s GASC set a deadline of 12 August for its large tender for over 3 MMT in several tranches, and early results indicate Ukraine...
Cocoa Consumption and Demand – How Will EUDR Affect the Industry?
Two weeks ago, WPI published an article looking at the supply-side factors in the cocoa market and what has been driving the massive price rally. With this article, we will look at the consumption and demand-side factors that are likely to influence the market and pricing for LH 2024 and into 2...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Market Commentary: CBOT Drifts Lower as Traders Prep for WASDE; Soyoil Rises on UCO Investigation
The CBOT/CME was mostly lower at midweek as traders prepare for what is expected to be a bearish WASDE report next week. The favorable shift in the U.S. weather is adding to negative sentiments for corn, soybeans, and the spring wheat crop and most are expecting large ending stocks increases in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s ag ministry says the country exported a record volume of 70 MMT of grain in 2023/24 but that total will fall to 60 MMT for 2024/25 due to smaller production. Last week, Tunisia purchased 125 KMT of soft wheat at prices ranging from $243.99-246/MT C&F...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Kazakhstan’s grain harvest is expected to coincide with heavy rains forecast for the next few weeks, which will likely cause a significant deterioration of the crop’s quality. Last week, the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring unit adjusted its 2024/...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia set a new record for wheat exports in MY 2023/24, with the country shipping 55.3 MMT of grain and accounting for 26.1 percent of global exports. Egypt’s GASC secured 20 KMT of sunflower seed oil at $1,013.99/MT for 1-15 September delivery. The original pla...
Doubling Down on Protectionism; Conflicting CAP Goals
Doubling Down on Protectionism Typically, the party platforms crafted every four years by Republicans and Democrats are equally meaningless. Some of their policy prescriptions become codified but many do not. But speakers at this week’s Republican Convention are leaving no doubt that &ldq...
Capital Investment and Productivity
While much of the focus on Europe relates to political instability in the EU, and threats from Russia, there are ample economic issues that also need to be addressed. This is true in both industrial production and agricultural output. European farms continue to lag their American counterparts i...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe saw mixed weather trends last week with showers in western Europe, Scandinavia, and the Balkans. Ukraine received little to no rainfall, however, and Russia was also dry, except for light showers in the southern region. Dryness and heat building over eastern Europe re...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European weather trends remain unfavorable for crops with drought in Hungary and Romania hurting winter crop development and yield potential while wet weather slowed summer crop seedings across France, Germany, and Italy. Now, heatwaves across Spain, eastern Europe and the B...
NGT Test this Week; New Mexican Authorities
NGT Test this Week The Belgian presidency of the EU will make its last effort to obtain approval of a regulatory proposal for new genomic techniques. If it fails, the effort will be passed along to the Hungarian presidency that begins in July. Chances are, it will fail despite being watered dow...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The EU Commission imposed an import tax on Russian wheat, corn, products derived from their processing, and feed. The duties range from €95-148/MT for various wheat varieties, €94/MT for grain corn, €93/MT for barley and rye, 3.2-64 percent for sunflower oil,...
Friday Policy Shorts
Standards not Tariffs: The complaint against China and some other countries is that production practices are more highly distorted by government policies than in the West. The Biden Administration and former President Donald Trump look to tariffs to solve the problem. By contrast, the EU erects...
Senate Would Reject Obama; Europe Lives on Crisps
European Market Analysis
Regional News Russia’s agriculture ministry announced that 900,000 hectares of crops will need to be reseeded this year after several frosts/freeze events that destroyed crops in south/central Russia. The French spring crop area is forecast to include 1.44 Mha of corn (up 9.6...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Frosts in Russia’s central, southern, and Volga regions have halted spring planting efforts, which will likely contribute to lower yield potential this year. Russia has completed spring seeding on 16.9 Mha, or 30.2 percent of the planned area, so far. Some of these are...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Flimsy Arguments; Bien SUR Pesticides
Flimsy Arguments Certain Americans are taking sides with Hamas in Gaza, arguing that it is Israel to blame. In a similar fashion, progressive groups focused on agriculture are calling on Washington to cease its bullying of Mexico on GMO corn. They defend Mexico City for pursuing “food sov...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 April–3 May 2024 Last week Russia celebrated International Labor Day, and on May 9 will celebrate WWII Victory Day, resulting in a long 10-day holiday for many Russian families, including grain traders. This traditionally slows down trade, however, logistics cont...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Algeria purchased 200 KMT of hard wheat – rumored to originate in France – at $249-250/MT C&F. Turkey issued an international tender for the sale of 100 KMT of durum wheat to be exported – not imported – from the country. The winning bid cam...
Olive Oil Gets Tighter
Olive oil is a niche product, comprising just under one percent of total global vegetable oil production. It is also higher priced, and only becoming more so as production drops. Europe produces around 62 percent of global olive oil and supplies half the world trade. Production is primarily in...
European Market Analysis
Regional News ProZerno forecasts Russia’s 2024 total grain production will hit 135-136 MMT, down from 144.9 MMT in 2023. Wheat production is forecast to fall from 92.8 to 88 MMT this year, with barley production down from 21.1 to 18 MMT. Russia’s corn production should fall fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Early-morning frosts were reported across Poland down to France as crops are reaching growth stages that are sensitive to cold. It’s too early to say whether the cold snap will dent yields, but the 2024 crop continues to face weather challenges. Tunisia pur...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Wrong at the Top; Happy Talk
Wrong at the Top We admit as private policy analysts that sometimes we add 1+1 and get three. It turns out top government officials can make the same mistake. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack had mused aloud that China could be buying Brazilian corn and not U.S. corn in retaliation for state-level re...