Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing the dangers of climate change. They’ve had the buy-in from elites and a cooperative media ecosystem giving attention to the “cr...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate pay...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry producers in other states. For some, the suit is a rejection of federalism (states rights) even as the Trump Administration seeks to defang Washin...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus requirement, re-establishing the appellate level in dispute settlement, and use of special and differential treatment. The pending confirmation...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no clothes. The list of upended conventions is long and still growing. Just this past week it was investors noting how economists have been wrong...
FAO Global Food Price Index Down on Month Except for Meat
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global price index for animal proteins is at a record level in September, up 0.9 points over August and 7.9 points above year-ago levels. September was the eighth consecutive increase in the index. The increase in the meat index cam...
Competing Manufacturing Data
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in September. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded 52 points in September, down from 53 a month prior and indicating a weaker rate of expansion of the manufacturing sector. A rea...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progress toward untethered competition in the post-war period, American labor unions became most vocal against trade agreements during the Obama A...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that a shutdown is coming, given the House is in recess until tomorrow, 1 October. President Trump met with the top Congressional leadership at...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It was approved as a basic substance but then a manufacturer incorporated it as the active ingredient in a manufactured product and EU regulat...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to protect U.S. farmers and ranchers from high, and volatile, input costs spanning fertilizer, fuel, seed, and equipment and ensuring competi...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full of grievances and complaints but lacking answers. A more objective view is to question authority or else it will never change or improve. The...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific foreign country on specious reasons. But Chinese import inspectors serve the goals of the all-powerful state. Dim Sums notes a sudden spike in C...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, “I think we found an answer to autism” As previously noted, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report...
WTO and Trump; Analytically Correct, Predictably Wrong
WTO and Trump To quote Wikipedia, James Bacchus is “an American statesman, scholar, writer, and politician". He also served as a founding member and twice chairman of the WTO’s Appellate Body. He now writes from the Libertarian Cato Institute and provocatively asks why the WTO is no...
No Tariffs, No Reforms; Nōgyō for PM; Turnabout is Fair Play
No Tariffs, No Reforms U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. EU officials have signaled they are disinclined to use tariffs, but may be willing to impose sanctions on the companies that transact the oil. Sanct...
Outlook for the Fed Meeting This Week
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week with the make-up of the committee still up in the air. Governor Lisa Cook is questionable regarding her attendance after President Trump has sought her to ouster her on mortgage frau...
Chemo-phobia on Steroids
Notably, Congressional Republicans followed the demands of farm groups and added a provision in the latest government funding bill that some say would shield pesticide companies from lawsuits. Companies like Bayer have battled lawsuits for selling pesticides lawfully approved for use by regulat...
Livestock Roundup: Inflation Is Up
The CPI released this morning showed that August prices increased 0.4 percent and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. For food at home, the index rose to 0.6 percent in August and for 0.3 percent for food away from home. The August data compares to a drop of -0.1 percent in July and 2.7 percen...
Remembering 9-11
Twenty-four years ago, on September 11, 2001, the U.S. experienced one of the most tragic and influential days in the nation’s history. The events of that day would spark great unity, and later division, as our nation grappled with terrorism’s fallout. The days and weeks immediately...
Wheat from the Chaff; Europe Gets Squeezed
Wheat from the Chaff An agricultural meeting in Arkansas last week drew 400 to 500 farmers, a much larger group than expected at harvest time. They vented their angst over low commodity prices, high input costs, and consequently low profitability. One estimate from bankers is that farm bankrupt...
Venting Hypocrisy; Xi – Trump Meeting; Say Cheese Please
Venting Hypocrisy At a BRICS meeting this past weekend, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva characterized President Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool of “blackmail.” The formal definition of blackmail involves demanding benefit from someone in exchange for not reveali...
USG Closure; Ag Gets Special Treatment; Policy Shorts
USG Closure Congressional Democrats are debating whether they should force the U.S. government into closure at the end of this month when the budget (continuing resolution) expires. Back in March, a handful of Democratic U.S. senators joined with the Republicans in ensuring funding through 30 S...
Japan–U.S. Trade Deal Implemented
The U.S.-Japan trade deal is now in place. It provides for a 15 percent tariff on most goods entering from Japan. For goods that were subject to tariffs less than 15 percent will now face higher duties at 15 percent, but goods that faced duties of 15 percent or higher will not increase. The tar...
Inflation Regime Changes and Commodity Market Outlooks
U.S. fiscal and monetary policy is at a crossroads, which is creating uncertainty for macroeconomic and commodity markets. Chief among these concerns is “sticky” inflation that has resisted the Fed’s efforts to control it, which is juxtaposed against a weakening labor market...
Prop 12 Counterattack; Assault on International Organizations; Japan on Point
Prop 12 Counterattack To the great disappointment of key parts of the U.S. agriculture sector, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that California’s Prop 12 is constitutional, and that the state can establish its own rules on meat sold in the state regardless of its origin. The sect...
SCO versus West
Instead of focusing on foes, the transatlantic alliance needs to remediate itself. Media reactions to this past weekend’s Shanghai Cooperation Council was telling. The New York Times was shocked that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “friends.” CNN called it “stark op...
Appellate Court Rules Against Tariffs; Credit Ratings Uncertain
On 28 May, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and ordered that the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on 2 April be vacated. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Feder...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 1 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Tuesday, 2 September. ...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity
Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the grea...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story surrounded Nvidia, which met revenue expectations and exceeded projected earnings per share, but underwhelmed investors on data center sales...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Canada initially retaliated but has now unilaterally reversed some of its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. after deeming them predominantly...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying to frame messages to his favor. This past weekend, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng said that "It goes without saying that [Ame...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was productive after top trade officials have been meeting for months with little to show. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasin...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
BRICS Unload; Pity the European Farmer; Policy Shorts
BRICS Unload President Trump has slow walked or balked at negotiating trade agreements with Brazil, India and South Africa. The supposed reasons include unfair treatment of Brazil’s Bolsonaro, India’s failure to open its market to U.S. farm goods while buying Russian oil, and South...
Consumption Taxes; Food Costs and Adaptation
Consumption Taxes This analyst erroneously implied that value added taxes are cumulative through the supply chain when in fact any VAT paid on an input is deductible, thus ensuring it is the final customer paying the tax. The VAT is an important discussion point because the Trump Administration...
A Look at Inflation and Tariffs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI for July this morning. The CPI was up 0.2 percent for the month and 2.7 percent year-over-year. The rate was down from 0.3 percent in June and steady with the year-over-year of 2.7 percent at the end of June. However, the core CPI, whi...
NCGA Complains About Tariffs and Margins
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), along with 25 state associations, sent a letter on 1 August to USTR Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins complaining about “the calamitous environment for farmers who are trying to plan for harve...
VAT Versus Trump Tariffs; MAHA Win?
VAT versus Trump Tariffs Most imports into the U.S. will face an average 15 tariff under Trump trade policy. Critics and news reports warned of disastrous impacts that have thus far failed to develop. This may be due to their relative context. Most countries apply tariffs such as the EU’s...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the “humiliation” of “submission” to the U.S. But that is just Europe being its usual “bantie rooster.” ...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on dyes and artificial colors. Let’s take a look. First, there is the ongoing volatility of cocoa prices. Prices have been in an a...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to circumvent Congress’s power to levy tariffs. The reported reaction of the co...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Trump Administration, which was widely panned by USDA personnel. One of the primary goals is to move employees out of the high-cost Washington,...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. trading partners. The executive order was signed hours before today’s deadline, but the order also included a provision to start the ne...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive extra punishment. U.S. tariffs on Brazil will be 50 percent as extra was added due to Mr. Trump’s opposition to the judicial treatmen...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where President Xi Jinping rebuffed their demands for rebalancing the trading relationship. China’s overcapacity causes it to dump steel, a...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. This is the Trump Administration’s fifth agreement to date, along with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which is...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for U.S. soybean exporters. Meanwhile, the trade agreement yesterday between President Trump and EU President Ursua von der Leyen offers up many...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recall that this work seeks to identify for the major agricultural commodities where along the forward curve current futures have the greatest er...
15 Percent and Certainty; Purity Tests; Cherry Picking Cherries
15 Percent and Certainty The U.S. trade agreement with Japan announced late yesterday was likely Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s final act. Financial markets reacted positively since the deal at least brings certainty. The surprise concession to 15 percent tariffs now sets a baseline that...
Ready for War; Deals Trickly In
Ready for War Europe has not won a kinetic war without U.S. help, but one German official quoted by the Wall Street Journal boasted, “If they [U.S.] want war, they will get war.” Admittedly, Europe has been far better at defensive trade policy than it has been at fighting Russian ag...
Ten Days and Counting
Outside markets are counting on trade deals or another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) come 1 August. Since the 7 July announcement of the small window to negotiate trade deals with Washington, The Dow is down 0.17 percent, but the S&P 500 is up 1.22 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has...
Tariffs Rock Japan’s Election: Rice, Oil, and Autos
Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on as Prime Minister despite his coalition government losing its majority in the upper house after an election on Sunday. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government is a coalition government with its junior coalition partne...
Strong Retail Sales Report and Inflation Outlook
The June retail sales report beat consensus expectations, rising 0.6 percent. Moreover, it was a strong report, with 10 out of 13 of the sales categories increasing. The largest increase was in the auto sector, a traditionally volatile category. June sales were up 1.2 percent, which came after...
Identifying Mispricing Opportunities in Ag Futures
In many ways, human nature is fascinated with the future – predicting what will and what could be and formulating plans accordingly. This is one factor that makes commodity futures markets inherently intriguing – their role in foretelling the future. As WPI readers have likely exper...
Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering over 60 percent of the budget. Then five years ago the Greens came to dominate European politics and their Green Deal and Farm to Fork refo...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import demand. These market exchanges have likely remained accelerated ahead of the now 1 August tariff deadline, but increased costs were apparent i...
Consumer Price Index and Employment Reports
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June CPI this morning. The CPI increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May. The CPI is at its highest since January of this year. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.7 percen...
Worse Before Better; Tech Rescue; Value Added
Worse Before Better First China announced restrictions on rare earth exports, then President Trump announced 100 percent tariffs and software restrictions starting 1 November in retaliation, until he signaled everything was just a bad day. China then sanctioned a U.S. shipping subsidiary. Some...
Various Campaigns Diagnosed; EU Dependency
Various Campaigns Diagnosed Climate Change: Since the Paris Accord in 2015, environmentalists have poured hundreds of millions of dollars publicizing the dangers of climate change. They’ve had the buy-in from elites and a cooperative media ecosystem giving attention to the “cr...
Cattle Market Relief on the Way, But to What End? And, Higher Tariffs on China
USDA is expected to announce details in the next few weeks on its plan to encourage cattle herd expansion after Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently pledged to “expand access to working lands” and “develop risk mitigation tools.” These options will be relied on...
Reconciliation Bill Increases Crop Payments
The reconciliation bill signed into law on 4 July, aka the One Big Beautiful Bill, increased statutory reference prices under the Agricultural Risk Payments (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs and made some changes to the effective reference prices (ERP) which are used to calculate pay...
Animal Welfare Metrics; Transatlantic NTB’s; More Elegant Trade Rules
Animal Welfare Metrics The U.S. Justice Department is suing California over its Prop 12 animal welfare standards adversely impacting hog and poultry producers in other states. For some, the suit is a rejection of federalism (states rights) even as the Trump Administration seeks to defang Washin...
WTO Stalemate; Off Again, On Again; Dem Bones
WTO Stalemate The World Trade Organization remains unable to move forward on its reform agenda under a stalemate over issues like the current consensus requirement, re-establishing the appellate level in dispute settlement, and use of special and differential treatment. The pending confirmation...
Breaking Convention
No political leader has broken rules and norms like President Trump but only because previous leaders refused to bravely declare that the emperor has no clothes. The list of upended conventions is long and still growing. Just this past week it was investors noting how economists have been wrong...
FAO Global Food Price Index Down on Month Except for Meat
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global price index for animal proteins is at a record level in September, up 0.9 points over August and 7.9 points above year-ago levels. September was the eighth consecutive increase in the index. The increase in the meat index cam...
Competing Manufacturing Data
According to S&P Global, the US manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in September. The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded 52 points in September, down from 53 a month prior and indicating a weaker rate of expansion of the manufacturing sector. A rea...
Recent Market Volatility Increases Futures Mispricing
Following the recent shocks to the grain markets – the Grain Stocks report data and news that soybeans will be on the negotiating table when Presidents Trump and Xi meet next – many are wondering what happens next as far as commodity pricing goes. WPI certainly doesn’t have a...
Shutdown Impacts on Ag
In the now fifth U.S. government shutdown in the past 30 years, everyone is guessing about its duration because each shutdown has had its own unique circumstances. The online prediction markets have a range of guesses, all tending toward the shorter side of the last one under Mr. Trump, 35 days...
Trade versus Self-Sufficiency
David Ricardo’s concept of comparative advantage has not been disproven; it has just been ignored for the past 200 years. While there has been progress toward untethered competition in the post-war period, American labor unions became most vocal against trade agreements during the Obama A...
Impact of Potential Government Shutdown
It is 30 September, the last day of the fiscal year. Congress must pass a funding bill by midnight tonight or face a government shutdown. The odds are that a shutdown is coming, given the House is in recess until tomorrow, 1 October. President Trump met with the top Congressional leadership at...
Chemically Named; Farms In, Government Out
Chemically Named Europe’s wine grape growers are complaining that EU regulations prohibit them from using the fungicide sodium hydrogen carbonate. It was approved as a basic substance but then a manufacturer incorporated it as the active ingredient in a manufactured product and EU regulat...
Flow of Government Funds to Agriculture
In the face of increasing input costs, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to protect U.S. farmers and ranchers from high, and volatile, input costs spanning fertilizer, fuel, seed, and equipment and ensuring competi...
2026 Minor Crop Acreage Outlook
Yesterday, WPI presented our initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year with a focus on the major crops (corn, soybeans, and all-wheat). Today, we extend that analysis to show our forecasts for more minor crop acres. Briefly, our modeling results show that producers across the U.S. a...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Rebalancing and Reducing
WPI’s initial acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres at the expense of corn while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, which will lead to a 0.4-pe...
International Disorder
President Trump receives harsh criticism for disrupting the international order and his UN speech is no different. His critics called it meandering, full of grievances and complaints but lacking answers. A more objective view is to question authority or else it will never change or improve. The...
Argentina Suspends Export Tax on Soy
Yesterday, Argentina temporarily stopped its export tax on grains and co-products, as well as beef and poultry, something President Javier Milei had proposed during his campaign. The final decision, however, came as the country is desperate for U.S. dollars to shore up the flagging peso. Furthe...
Surreptitious NTB; Geopolitical Sacrifices; Strategic Opposition
Surreptitious NTB Import inspectors in Western democracies would blow the whistle if politically told to single out and reject product from a specific foreign country on specious reasons. But Chinese import inspectors serve the goals of the all-powerful state. Dim Sums notes a sudden spike in C...
Convenience over Causation; Rules and Convenience; GI’s in America; Transatlantic Work Views
Convenience over Causation A months’ long commitment to delivering in September led to today’s announcement by chemo-phobe RFK, Jr. that, “I think we found an answer to autism” As previously noted, the Trump Administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report...
WTO and Trump; Analytically Correct, Predictably Wrong
WTO and Trump To quote Wikipedia, James Bacchus is “an American statesman, scholar, writer, and politician". He also served as a founding member and twice chairman of the WTO’s Appellate Body. He now writes from the Libertarian Cato Institute and provocatively asks why the WTO is no...
No Tariffs, No Reforms; Nōgyō for PM; Turnabout is Fair Play
No Tariffs, No Reforms U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the EU to join him in imposing tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. EU officials have signaled they are disinclined to use tariffs, but may be willing to impose sanctions on the companies that transact the oil. Sanct...
Outlook for the Fed Meeting This Week
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week with the make-up of the committee still up in the air. Governor Lisa Cook is questionable regarding her attendance after President Trump has sought her to ouster her on mortgage frau...
Chemo-phobia on Steroids
Notably, Congressional Republicans followed the demands of farm groups and added a provision in the latest government funding bill that some say would shield pesticide companies from lawsuits. Companies like Bayer have battled lawsuits for selling pesticides lawfully approved for use by regulat...
Livestock Roundup: Inflation Is Up
The CPI released this morning showed that August prices increased 0.4 percent and 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. For food at home, the index rose to 0.6 percent in August and for 0.3 percent for food away from home. The August data compares to a drop of -0.1 percent in July and 2.7 percen...
Remembering 9-11
Twenty-four years ago, on September 11, 2001, the U.S. experienced one of the most tragic and influential days in the nation’s history. The events of that day would spark great unity, and later division, as our nation grappled with terrorism’s fallout. The days and weeks immediately...
Wheat from the Chaff; Europe Gets Squeezed
Wheat from the Chaff An agricultural meeting in Arkansas last week drew 400 to 500 farmers, a much larger group than expected at harvest time. They vented their angst over low commodity prices, high input costs, and consequently low profitability. One estimate from bankers is that farm bankrupt...
Venting Hypocrisy; Xi – Trump Meeting; Say Cheese Please
Venting Hypocrisy At a BRICS meeting this past weekend, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva characterized President Trump’s use of tariffs as a tool of “blackmail.” The formal definition of blackmail involves demanding benefit from someone in exchange for not reveali...
USG Closure; Ag Gets Special Treatment; Policy Shorts
USG Closure Congressional Democrats are debating whether they should force the U.S. government into closure at the end of this month when the budget (continuing resolution) expires. Back in March, a handful of Democratic U.S. senators joined with the Republicans in ensuring funding through 30 S...
Japan–U.S. Trade Deal Implemented
The U.S.-Japan trade deal is now in place. It provides for a 15 percent tariff on most goods entering from Japan. For goods that were subject to tariffs less than 15 percent will now face higher duties at 15 percent, but goods that faced duties of 15 percent or higher will not increase. The tar...
Inflation Regime Changes and Commodity Market Outlooks
U.S. fiscal and monetary policy is at a crossroads, which is creating uncertainty for macroeconomic and commodity markets. Chief among these concerns is “sticky” inflation that has resisted the Fed’s efforts to control it, which is juxtaposed against a weakening labor market...
Prop 12 Counterattack; Assault on International Organizations; Japan on Point
Prop 12 Counterattack To the great disappointment of key parts of the U.S. agriculture sector, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that California’s Prop 12 is constitutional, and that the state can establish its own rules on meat sold in the state regardless of its origin. The sect...
SCO versus West
Instead of focusing on foes, the transatlantic alliance needs to remediate itself. Media reactions to this past weekend’s Shanghai Cooperation Council was telling. The New York Times was shocked that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “friends.” CNN called it “stark op...
Appellate Court Rules Against Tariffs; Credit Ratings Uncertain
On 28 May, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled Trump had overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and ordered that the "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on 2 April be vacated. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Feder...
U.S. Labor Day Holiday
The U.S. will celebrate Labor Day on Monday, 1 September, and the U.S. markets as well as our office will be closed that day. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Tuesday, 2 September. ...
Brazil Retaliation to U.S. Tariffs
The Foreign Ministry of Brazil notified the U.S. today that it has directed its trade body, Camex, to investigate whether it can retaliate against the 50 percent tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on several goods imported from Brazil. The investigation will conducted be under a law pa...
Identifying Mispricing in Ag Futures: Corn, Soybeans Offer Opportunity
Readers will likely be familiar with WPI’s work over the past month or so exploring mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. WPI’s work in this area seeks to identify (for the major agricultural commodities) where along the forward curve current futures prices have the grea...
Technology Impacts; Science and UPF’s; Perpetuating the Museum
Technology Impacts Technology is driving markets around the world, but not always in the same direction or with the same results. Today’s big story surrounded Nvidia, which met revenue expectations and exceeded projected earnings per share, but underwhelmed investors on data center sales...
Future of Tariffs
Some countries have reacted harshly to the tariffs imposed by President Trump, while other countries responded more mutedly or negotiated a settlement. Canada initially retaliated but has now unilaterally reversed some of its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. after deeming them predominantly...
New World Screwworm Human Case
Protectionists’ Spin; Transatlantic Spin; India’s New Bed
Protectionists’ Spin U.S. President Donald Trump is vilified for statements that his critics say are blatantly untrue, but he is not alone in trying to frame messages to his favor. This past weekend, China’s Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng said that "It goes without saying that [Ame...
Canada Exempts USMCA Products from Tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump had a telephone conversation last Thursday to discuss trade. By all accounts, the discussion was productive after top trade officials have been meeting for months with little to show. In late July, Trump signed an executive order increasin...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
BRICS Unload; Pity the European Farmer; Policy Shorts
BRICS Unload President Trump has slow walked or balked at negotiating trade agreements with Brazil, India and South Africa. The supposed reasons include unfair treatment of Brazil’s Bolsonaro, India’s failure to open its market to U.S. farm goods while buying Russian oil, and South...
Consumption Taxes; Food Costs and Adaptation
Consumption Taxes This analyst erroneously implied that value added taxes are cumulative through the supply chain when in fact any VAT paid on an input is deductible, thus ensuring it is the final customer paying the tax. The VAT is an important discussion point because the Trump Administration...
A Look at Inflation and Tariffs
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the CPI for July this morning. The CPI was up 0.2 percent for the month and 2.7 percent year-over-year. The rate was down from 0.3 percent in June and steady with the year-over-year of 2.7 percent at the end of June. However, the core CPI, whi...
NCGA Complains About Tariffs and Margins
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), along with 25 state associations, sent a letter on 1 August to USTR Jamieson Greer, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins complaining about “the calamitous environment for farmers who are trying to plan for harve...
VAT Versus Trump Tariffs; MAHA Win?
VAT versus Trump Tariffs Most imports into the U.S. will face an average 15 tariff under Trump trade policy. Critics and news reports warned of disastrous impacts that have thus far failed to develop. This may be due to their relative context. Most countries apply tariffs such as the EU’s...
Infuriating Ingratiation; Soul Crushing Jobs
Infuriating Ingratiation Based on European press reports, the terms of the transatlantic trade deal (see Tariffs as a Tax) are less objectionable than the “humiliation” of “submission” to the U.S. But that is just Europe being its usual “bantie rooster.” ...
Snacking Turmoil
There are a lot of issues working against the snack world right now from tariffs to cocoa and sugar prices, to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) ban on dyes and artificial colors. Let’s take a look. First, there is the ongoing volatility of cocoa prices. Prices have been in an a...
Politics of Tariffs; Tariffs as a Tax
Politics of Tariffs The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington heard legal arguments last week regarding Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to circumvent Congress’s power to levy tariffs. The reported reaction of the co...
USDA Reorganization
USDA has opened a comment period on its agency reorganization plan. Comments will be accepted until 26 August. The plan is similar to that of the first Trump Administration, which was widely panned by USDA personnel. One of the primary goals is to move employees out of the high-cost Washington,...
Tariffs, Mexico Extension, Federal Reserve, and Jobs Report
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday unveiling a massive overhaul of U.S. tariff policy, introducing a series of new tariff rates for U.S. trading partners. The executive order was signed hours before today’s deadline, but the order also included a provision to start the ne...
Friday’s Tariffs; China and Europe; MAHA Outlook
Friday’s Tariffs Brazil and India are two of the bigger countries facing President Trump’s tariff escalation this Friday, and both will receive extra punishment. U.S. tariffs on Brazil will be 50 percent as extra was added due to Mr. Trump’s opposition to the judicial treatmen...
Trump Trade Squeezes; USDA Staff Relocation; Scale and Trade
Trump Trade Squeezes It did not help the EU’s trade negotiating position in Scotland this past Sunday when its leaders had just come from China where President Xi Jinping rebuffed their demands for rebalancing the trading relationship. China’s overcapacity causes it to dump steel, a...
U.S.-EU Trade Agreement
President Trump and EU President Ursula von der Lynen announced on Sunday that they reached an outline of a Cooperation Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. This is the Trump Administration’s fifth agreement to date, along with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, which is...
Humiliating; Keep Your Enemies Close; Contradicting
Humiliating U.S. trade talks with China this week are not expected to net anything more than an extension of the current standoff, which means nothing for U.S. soybean exporters. Meanwhile, the trade agreement yesterday between President Trump and EU President Ursua von der Leyen offers up many...
Further Identification of Mispricing in Ag Futures
WPI offers the following analysis as a continuation of last week’s work examining mispricing opportunities in agricultural futures. Readers may recall that this work seeks to identify for the major agricultural commodities where along the forward curve current futures have the greatest er...
15 Percent and Certainty; Purity Tests; Cherry Picking Cherries
15 Percent and Certainty The U.S. trade agreement with Japan announced late yesterday was likely Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s final act. Financial markets reacted positively since the deal at least brings certainty. The surprise concession to 15 percent tariffs now sets a baseline that...
Ready for War; Deals Trickly In
Ready for War Europe has not won a kinetic war without U.S. help, but one German official quoted by the Wall Street Journal boasted, “If they [U.S.] want war, they will get war.” Admittedly, Europe has been far better at defensive trade policy than it has been at fighting Russian ag...
Ten Days and Counting
Outside markets are counting on trade deals or another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) come 1 August. Since the 7 July announcement of the small window to negotiate trade deals with Washington, The Dow is down 0.17 percent, but the S&P 500 is up 1.22 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has...
Tariffs Rock Japan’s Election: Rice, Oil, and Autos
Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to stay on as Prime Minister despite his coalition government losing its majority in the upper house after an election on Sunday. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government is a coalition government with its junior coalition partne...
Strong Retail Sales Report and Inflation Outlook
The June retail sales report beat consensus expectations, rising 0.6 percent. Moreover, it was a strong report, with 10 out of 13 of the sales categories increasing. The largest increase was in the auto sector, a traditionally volatile category. June sales were up 1.2 percent, which came after...
Identifying Mispricing Opportunities in Ag Futures
In many ways, human nature is fascinated with the future – predicting what will and what could be and formulating plans accordingly. This is one factor that makes commodity futures markets inherently intriguing – their role in foretelling the future. As WPI readers have likely exper...
Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering over 60 percent of the budget. Then five years ago the Greens came to dominate European politics and their Green Deal and Farm to Fork refo...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import demand. These market exchanges have likely remained accelerated ahead of the now 1 August tariff deadline, but increased costs were apparent i...
Consumer Price Index and Employment Reports
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the June CPI this morning. The CPI increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, after rising 0.1 percent in May. The CPI is at its highest since January of this year. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.7 percen...