Ag Lags Economy Despite a trade war, a government shutdown, Brexit, declines in factory output and consumer spending plus other worries, the stock market had its best first quarter since 1998. And agricultural commodities? Of the nearly 100 financial instruments (stock indices, currencies, commodity futures, etc.) tracked by the Wall Street Journal, farm commodities made up nearly 20 percent of the losers in the first quarter and just 3.6 percent of the winners. Last week wasn’t much better as ag was 6.45 percent of the losers and showed no gainers. Yet, economic policy uncertainty is at its second-highest level in decades (see graph below), and it is at a record high in China. But should it be? There is a credit crunch, but with lo...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.