Recent Biofuels Analysis
Quick Hits: Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins Update
Ethanol Ethanol production margins continue to experience a counter-seasonal surge, with the energy market rally driving the bulk of the move. Prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, U.S. ethanol margins were already trending above year-ago levels by $0.10-0.20/gallon...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Ethanol Production Outlook Amid Energy Rally
Yesterday, WPI briefly examined how biodiesel production margins have surged alongside broader energy markets following the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict. The surge in energy prices lifted biodiesel margins to two-year, if not higher, levels and has exerted a similar, positive effect on ethanol pro...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
Quick Hits: Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins Update
Ethanol Ethanol production margins continue to experience a counter-seasonal surge, with the energy market rally driving the bulk of the move. Prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, U.S. ethanol margins were already trending above year-ago levels by $0.10-0.20/gallon...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
45Z: The Next Big Thing or the Next Big Mess?
The U.S. Treasury Department is (still!) working on the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. The broad legislative effort for the act was launched in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and picked up with some significant adjustments in President Trump’s One Big...
Ethanol Production Outlook Amid Energy Rally
Yesterday, WPI briefly examined how biodiesel production margins have surged alongside broader energy markets following the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict. The surge in energy prices lifted biodiesel margins to two-year, if not higher, levels and has exerted a similar, positive effect on ethanol pro...
Market Commentary: Easing But Not Ending Novelty and Risk
There were more modest volumes trading in today’s session, perhaps reflecting growing resilience and circumspection about geopolitical uncertainties. The trade has had an ample opportunity to react to the modest changes in USDA’s March WASDE report, and there is still plenty of expe...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
WPI Spring Acreage Outlook
Heading into the USDA’s annual Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) next week, there is heightened speculation and anticipation about what the 2026/27 crop outlook will be. WPI updated our acreage forecasting models to help clients know what to expect—most likely—from the upcoming AOF forec...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
E15 Dropped from Appropriations Bill
In a years-long, ongoing policy battle, a provision to secure E15 was dropped at the last minute from the appropriations bill. On paper, the path forward looks clear, as the oil refiners’ association is now onboard with E15; however, there are still many other smaller mechanisms in the le...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...