Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several weeks have featured modest changes in the net ag position (the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three classes of...
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybeans saw a bullish day from the confluence of three factors – the NOPA crush report, fresh “flash” export sales, and Presiden...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net short. Funds cut 11,700 contacts (14.5 percent) off their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold relatively neutral posi...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: A Day and a Week of Surprises
There isn’t always a common theme across markets. Sometimes a session starts amid diverse influences. Sometimes, shorts or longs will dominate an open, then be tested by participants with different ideas. Each jockeying to have their way. Today’s trading opened bearishly for major g...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the livestock and wheat complexes. Funds pared back bearish bets across the ag space by 28 percent (26,700 contracts) last week and now hold a re...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bearish the major ag markets, last week with steady net selling across the grains and oilseed complex. Funds expanded their net short position across all ags by roughly 4.7 times last week and now hold a meaningful pos...
Market Commentary: Export Demand Steadies Corn; Soybeans Fall with Midwest Rain
The CBOT showed mixed trends across its major ag markets on Wednesday with corn and KC wheat finding some short covering that stabilized values and led to small gains. A big part of the stability that came to corn futures was from a flood of export interest that has recently entered the market...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several weeks have featured modest changes in the net ag position (the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three classes of...
Market Commentary: Three-Factor Rally for Soy Complex; Corn Extends Gains
Overnight trade saw short covering and corrective trade in corn, soybeans, and wheat but only the former two markets were able to hold their gains. Soybeans saw a bullish day from the confluence of three factors – the NOPA crush report, fresh “flash” export sales, and Presiden...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money surprisingly shifting into a more bullish stance across the ag space, though still retaining a small net short. Funds cut 11,700 contacts (14.5 percent) off their small net short across all ag futures last week and now hold relatively neutral posi...
Market Commentary: Cattle Retreat on Import News; Corn Posts New Lows on Midwest Rains
With the June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports past, the CBOT resumed trading its favorite variable for the peak of summer – weather. For Tuesday’s trade, this meant a focus on five-year highs in corn ratings and an excellent outlook for the crop into mid-July at least, which were t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: A Day and a Week of Surprises
There isn’t always a common theme across markets. Sometimes a session starts amid diverse influences. Sometimes, shorts or longs will dominate an open, then be tested by participants with different ideas. Each jockeying to have their way. Today’s trading opened bearishly for major g...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the livestock and wheat complexes. Funds pared back bearish bets across the ag space by 28 percent (26,700 contracts) last week and now hold a re...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bearish the major ag markets, last week with steady net selling across the grains and oilseed complex. Funds expanded their net short position across all ags by roughly 4.7 times last week and now hold a meaningful pos...