Recent Biofuels Analysis
USDA and Sugar: An Arranged Marriage
USDA and sugar have been married since 1934. With such an old marriage, there are all manner of promises, obligations and compromises. There are disagreements and arguments, and occasional calls for divorce, but they lack real conviction. We outsiders find it all so difficult to understand. The...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Dairy Feed Cost Volatility and Margins
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean meal markets are tightening together for the first time in more than a year, driven by lower U.S. yield expectations and continued Chinese soybean demand. A strong El Niño is replacing last year’s La Niña, shifting crop risk across the Americ...
Why the Black Sea Dominates the Global Sunflower Oil Market
Key Takeaways: Sunflower oil is a major global vegetable oil despite its relatively limited presence in the United States, with sunflowerseed containing substantially more oil than soybeans. Russia and Ukraine sit at the center of the global sunflower oil market, together accounting for 57 per...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Paraguay’s Unique Place in the Global Soybean Trade
Key Takeaways: Paraguay typically ranks among the world’s largest soybean exporters, with roughly two-thirds of its production destined for export markets, although most shipments remain within South America. As a landlocked country, Paraguay relies heavily on the Paraguay-Paraná...
EPA Announces 2025 SREs under the RFS: 1.76 Billion RINs
On Monday, 31 August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced decisions for 34 small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2025. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), EPA reviewed and considered information su...
EPA Grants 29 SREs, but Reallocation is the Story
Key Takeaways: EPA granted full or partial Small Refinery Exemptions to 29 of the 34 petitions under consideration, removing approximately 1.76 billion RINs from 2025 compliance obligations, roughly 770 million more RINs than EPA had previously anticipated. The larger exemption total does not...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Argentina’s Record Corn Crop Drives Export Growth
Key Takeaways: Argentina is on pace for a record corn crop and record exports in the current marketing year, with abundant supplies likely to keep the country highly competitive in global export markets. Argentina’s record exportable surplus is allowing it to offer highly competitive pri...
USDA and Sugar: An Arranged Marriage
USDA and sugar have been married since 1934. With such an old marriage, there are all manner of promises, obligations and compromises. There are disagreements and arguments, and occasional calls for divorce, but they lack real conviction. We outsiders find it all so difficult to understand. The...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Dairy Feed Cost Volatility and Margins
Key Takeaways: Corn and soybean meal markets are tightening together for the first time in more than a year, driven by lower U.S. yield expectations and continued Chinese soybean demand. A strong El Niño is replacing last year’s La Niña, shifting crop risk across the Americ...
Why the Black Sea Dominates the Global Sunflower Oil Market
Key Takeaways: Sunflower oil is a major global vegetable oil despite its relatively limited presence in the United States, with sunflowerseed containing substantially more oil than soybeans. Russia and Ukraine sit at the center of the global sunflower oil market, together accounting for 57 per...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Paraguay’s Unique Place in the Global Soybean Trade
Key Takeaways: Paraguay typically ranks among the world’s largest soybean exporters, with roughly two-thirds of its production destined for export markets, although most shipments remain within South America. As a landlocked country, Paraguay relies heavily on the Paraguay-Paraná...
EPA Announces 2025 SREs under the RFS: 1.76 Billion RINs
On Monday, 31 August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced decisions for 34 small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2025. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), EPA reviewed and considered information su...
EPA Grants 29 SREs, but Reallocation is the Story
Key Takeaways: EPA granted full or partial Small Refinery Exemptions to 29 of the 34 petitions under consideration, removing approximately 1.76 billion RINs from 2025 compliance obligations, roughly 770 million more RINs than EPA had previously anticipated. The larger exemption total does not...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Concerns about U.S. corn and soybean yields and continued disruptions in the Black Sea drove a week of bullish activity at the CBOT. Managed money traders bought 127,000 contracts across the ag markets, expanding their all-ags net long 29 percent in the process. The biggest drivers of the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Favorable U.S. weather and pre-WASDE positioning last week overrode the Black Sea export and allowed bearish sentiments to dominate the CBOT for the second straight week. Managed money traders sold 63,000 contracts across the ag markets, reducing their all-ags net long 12.5 percent in the proce...
Argentina’s Record Corn Crop Drives Export Growth
Key Takeaways: Argentina is on pace for a record corn crop and record exports in the current marketing year, with abundant supplies likely to keep the country highly competitive in global export markets. Argentina’s record exportable surplus is allowing it to offer highly competitive pri...