Recent Biofuels Analysis
New Mexico’s Clean Fuel Program Adds Pressure to Renewable Feedstock Markets
Key Takeaways: New Mexico’s Clean Transportation Fuel Program expands demand for low-carbon fuels and creates another market for renewable feedstocks, adding incremental pressure to already limited supplies of lower-carbon inputs. Growing competition for waste-based feedstocks such as an...
Trade Overview: USMCA, Brazil Section 301 Investigation, Section 122 Tariffs
USMCA Re-Negotiations At the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit on Friday, former USTR Robert Lighthizer stated that the USMCA renegotiations should focus on the trade deficit with Mexico rather than the trade pact itself. The U.S. deficit with Mexico exceeds $170 billion, including a net deficit...
USDA: From Bureaucracy to Ad Hocracy
There was a time, not so long ago, when you could easily explain U.S. agricultural policy. It was countercyclical and focused on risk management, especially for traditional row crops. There were a few exceptions, like dairy and sugar, which maintained the remnants of supply control. Participati...
Global Soybean Crush Margin Forecasts
Key Takeaways: Continued domestic demand for soyoil in the U.S. will drive prices higher and create a firmer outlook for global soybean values and crush margins. U.S. soyoil prices are set to increase 13-16 percent over the next four months as the domestic demand expansion takes hold. Th...
Ethanol Margin and Corn Use Outlook
The latest EIA data showed some interesting anomalies in the ethanol industry, changes that will have a material impact on the industry’s profits and corn consumption for 2025/26 and early 2026/27. The EIA reported that ethanol production fell 4.8 percent for the week ending 10 July...
Soyoil Clears an EU Regulatory Hurdle, but Demand Growth Faces Other Challenges
Key Takeaways: The European Parliament rejected a proposal to classify soyoil as a high ILUC-risk feedstock, preventing a potential phaseout from EU biofuel markets by 2030. Palm oil remains the only major vegetable oil designated as high ILUC-risk in the EU due to concerns over expansion into...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Indonesia’s B50 Mandate Reshapes Global Vegetable Oil Markets
Key Takeaways: Indonesia will raise its biodiesel mandate from B40 to B50 on 1 July, increasing palm oil–based diesel blending to 50 percent. The policy supports domestic palm oil demand and reduces reliance on imported diesel. Indonesia’s biodiesel program has steadily expanded si...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Waste Feedstock Constraints Revive Demand for Crop-Based Biofuels
Key Takeaways: Early U.S. biofuel policy relied primarily on crop-based feedstocks such as corn and vegetable oils. California's LCFS increased demand for waste-derived feedstocks by rewarding fuels with lower carbon intensity scores. Supplies of used cooking oil, animal fats, and distillers c...
Market Commentary: Technical Pressure, Crude Oil Decoupling Drive CBOT Selling
What You Need to Know Today: The USTR says Brazil has committed “unreasonable” acts against global trade rules and is recommending at 25 percent tariff on nearly all Brazilian ag products (unclear whether this includes beef amid President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices)...
Cellulosic Ethanol Fell Short of Expectations, but New Opportunities Are Emerging
Key Takeaways: The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set a goal of producing 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually by 2022, but actual production reached only a small fraction of that target. High production costs, feedstock collection challenges, and technological hurdl...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Brazil’s Emerging Corn Ethanol Industry Driven by Market Forces and Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Brazil has been the second-largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, but almost all of it was derived from sugarcane until recently. Corn ethanol production has increased due to expanded second-crop corn production, sugarcane storage limitations, and biofuel policy. Brazil is e...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
Soyoil Prices Continue to Be Bullish Amid High Energy Prices and Favorable Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Soyoil futures have been trading at the highest levels since 2022. Higher crude oil prices have allowed biofuels to be more cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Recent U.S. biofuel policy, including 45Z, has been favorable toward soyoil as a feedstock. California will be limiting...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...
New Mexico’s Clean Fuel Program Adds Pressure to Renewable Feedstock Markets
Key Takeaways: New Mexico’s Clean Transportation Fuel Program expands demand for low-carbon fuels and creates another market for renewable feedstocks, adding incremental pressure to already limited supplies of lower-carbon inputs. Growing competition for waste-based feedstocks such as an...
Trade Overview: USMCA, Brazil Section 301 Investigation, Section 122 Tariffs
USMCA Re-Negotiations At the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit on Friday, former USTR Robert Lighthizer stated that the USMCA renegotiations should focus on the trade deficit with Mexico rather than the trade pact itself. The U.S. deficit with Mexico exceeds $170 billion, including a net deficit...
USDA: From Bureaucracy to Ad Hocracy
There was a time, not so long ago, when you could easily explain U.S. agricultural policy. It was countercyclical and focused on risk management, especially for traditional row crops. There were a few exceptions, like dairy and sugar, which maintained the remnants of supply control. Participati...
Global Soybean Crush Margin Forecasts
Key Takeaways: Continued domestic demand for soyoil in the U.S. will drive prices higher and create a firmer outlook for global soybean values and crush margins. U.S. soyoil prices are set to increase 13-16 percent over the next four months as the domestic demand expansion takes hold. Th...
Ethanol Margin and Corn Use Outlook
The latest EIA data showed some interesting anomalies in the ethanol industry, changes that will have a material impact on the industry’s profits and corn consumption for 2025/26 and early 2026/27. The EIA reported that ethanol production fell 4.8 percent for the week ending 10 July...
Soyoil Clears an EU Regulatory Hurdle, but Demand Growth Faces Other Challenges
Key Takeaways: The European Parliament rejected a proposal to classify soyoil as a high ILUC-risk feedstock, preventing a potential phaseout from EU biofuel markets by 2030. Palm oil remains the only major vegetable oil designated as high ILUC-risk in the EU due to concerns over expansion into...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
High Oleic Soybeans: Premium Demand Growing, But Adoption Remains Limited
Key Takeaways: High oleic soybeans produce oil containing 70–80 percent oleic acid, improving stability and eliminating the need for partial hydrogenation, which eliminates trans fats. There are three primary varieties of high oleic soybeans available commercially: Plenish, Vistive Gold,...
Indonesia’s B50 Mandate Reshapes Global Vegetable Oil Markets
Key Takeaways: Indonesia will raise its biodiesel mandate from B40 to B50 on 1 July, increasing palm oil–based diesel blending to 50 percent. The policy supports domestic palm oil demand and reduces reliance on imported diesel. Indonesia’s biodiesel program has steadily expanded si...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
Soybean Crush Margin Forecast
What You Need to Know Today… Crush margins are set to pull back after their recent rallies, though U.S. markets will fare better than others. U.S. demand-led strength in soyoil pricing is a key driver of U.S. margin profitability and will remain so into mid-autumn. Soymeal prices are th...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Waste Feedstock Constraints Revive Demand for Crop-Based Biofuels
Key Takeaways: Early U.S. biofuel policy relied primarily on crop-based feedstocks such as corn and vegetable oils. California's LCFS increased demand for waste-derived feedstocks by rewarding fuels with lower carbon intensity scores. Supplies of used cooking oil, animal fats, and distillers c...
Market Commentary: Technical Pressure, Crude Oil Decoupling Drive CBOT Selling
What You Need to Know Today: The USTR says Brazil has committed “unreasonable” acts against global trade rules and is recommending at 25 percent tariff on nearly all Brazilian ag products (unclear whether this includes beef amid President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices)...
Cellulosic Ethanol Fell Short of Expectations, but New Opportunities Are Emerging
Key Takeaways: The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set a goal of producing 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol annually by 2022, but actual production reached only a small fraction of that target. High production costs, feedstock collection challenges, and technological hurdl...
Key Factors that Sparked Brazil’s Growth into an Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Acidity: Brazil’s agricultural production rose significantly after agricultural researchers were able to reduce soil acidity in the Cerrado region. Rotation: Farmers in the Center-West of Brazil, where the Cerrado is located, enjoy a soybean/corn double cropping advantage...
Commodity Policy Being Shaped by Unfolding Farm Crisis
With the war in Iran affecting fuel and fertilizer prices, higher tariffs, weak commodity prices, ag labor constraints, and other factors, farm bankruptcies are now at a 6-year high, a signal of growing stress. During the month of April, 62 Chapter 12 bankruptcies were filed, which is a 1...
Market Commentary: Grains and oilseeds see strength on high PCE reading, Crude oil and macros remain topsy-turvy with U.S.-Iran headline risk
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. During a cabinet meeting, President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz is international waters and will be open to everybody, which appears to be wishful thinking. Control of the Strait...
Brazil’s Emerging Corn Ethanol Industry Driven by Market Forces and Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Brazil has been the second-largest producer of fuel ethanol globally, but almost all of it was derived from sugarcane until recently. Corn ethanol production has increased due to expanded second-crop corn production, sugarcane storage limitations, and biofuel policy. Brazil is e...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds reducing net long positions across most of the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week. Funds reduced the all-ags net long by 4,300 contracts (0.4 percent), pulling back from the largest net long since at least 2016 forged just two weeks p...
Soyoil Prices Continue to Be Bullish Amid High Energy Prices and Favorable Biofuel Policy
Key Takeaways: Soyoil futures have been trading at the highest levels since 2022. Higher crude oil prices have allowed biofuels to be more cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Recent U.S. biofuel policy, including 45Z, has been favorable toward soyoil as a feedstock. California will be limiting...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
Al Gore and the Unidentified Opportunity Costs
Twenty years ago, An Inconvenient Truth helped bring climate risk into the public foreground. Al Gore’s film and book contributed to a transformation in how climate change was understood, moving it from a largely scientific discussion into a broad political and cultural movement. Its infl...