CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...
Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week
With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some input, and especially focus on the May 12 WASDE. It will be the first keen look at the balance sheets for MY 2025/26. It was the fifth...
North Dakota and Glyphosate
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years – whether it will remain the only domestic producer of glyphosate in the U.S. Anderson became CEO in 2023 and at the time promised to have th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 25 April)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 25 April 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets turned higher this week as buyers booked May-June cargoes after the USTR said the 301 port fees against Chinese vessels will not start until October. Shipping lines remain reluc...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseeds. Both opened lower this morning but climbed out of the hole to end higher. Wheat closed lower overnight and opened that way this mornin...
Livestock Round Up: 2024 Slaughter Totals
The annual livestock slaughter data for 2024 was released Tuesday from USDA. Despite a reduced cattle supply, beef production totaled 27 billion pounds, up slightly from 2023 based on heavier weights, especially in the fall. For 2023, total pounds produced were also about 27 billion pounds, dow...
Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong
The Market The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in global trade war(s) offering support. CBOT soybean futures have pushed slightly higher with support from firmer soyoil values, and this has hel...
Market Commentary: Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Hits New Lows; More Trump Uncertainty
The CBOT was mixed again on Wednesday with grains seeing pressure from fund selling and a lack of significant news while soybeans and livestock traded higher. There are no serious weather issues in the U.S., South America, or Europe right now, which is taking ammunition away from grain bulls. T...
Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid
Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). U.S. EPA, the EU’s EFSA and other reputable government agencies have found this to not be true. But it is enough for Bayer to los...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition. According to Mr. Mishustin, winter crops cover around 20 million ha (Mha). He is expecting that...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop analysts’ upward revisions to the Brazilian and Argentine corn crops, which combined with a strong start to planting the U.S. 2025 crop...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds are slightly increasing bullish bets across the ag space, primarily in the soy complex and livestock futures. Managed money traders’ net ag position (the combined position across the soybean complex, the three U.S. wheat contracts, corn, and th...
Market Commentary: No Raucous End to the Week
With no new input on fundamentals, traders passively went through the day making only minor changes. Monday’s crop progress report will provide some input, and especially focus on the May 12 WASDE. It will be the first keen look at the balance sheets for MY 2025/26. It was the fifth...
North Dakota and Glyphosate
Bayer CEO Bill Anderson averred in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that the company will make a decision “in months” - not years – whether it will remain the only domestic producer of glyphosate in the U.S. Anderson became CEO in 2023 and at the time promised to have th...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
U.S. soybean processing margins have seen considerable volatility over the past month as multiple fundamental factors upended global oilseed and product prices. The most obvious influence was the recent trade war and tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs between the U.S. and, which was exacerbated...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 25 April)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 25 April 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets turned higher this week as buyers booked May-June cargoes after the USTR said the 301 port fees against Chinese vessels will not start until October. Shipping lines remain reluc...
Market Commentary: Markets Continue Rebound
Soybeans and corn rose in overnight trading on optimism about the de-escalation of the trade war with China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseeds. Both opened lower this morning but climbed out of the hole to end higher. Wheat closed lower overnight and opened that way this mornin...
Livestock Round Up: 2024 Slaughter Totals
The annual livestock slaughter data for 2024 was released Tuesday from USDA. Despite a reduced cattle supply, beef production totaled 27 billion pounds, up slightly from 2023 based on heavier weights, especially in the fall. For 2023, total pounds produced were also about 27 billion pounds, dow...
Oilseed Highlights: Vegoils Rally; Old Crop Demand Remains Strong
The Market The oilseed markets are mostly higher this week with U.S. old crop demand, a slow harvest start in Argentina, and a slight settling in global trade war(s) offering support. CBOT soybean futures have pushed slightly higher with support from firmer soyoil values, and this has hel...
Market Commentary: Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Hits New Lows; More Trump Uncertainty
The CBOT was mixed again on Wednesday with grains seeing pressure from fund selling and a lack of significant news while soybeans and livestock traded higher. There are no serious weather issues in the U.S., South America, or Europe right now, which is taking ammunition away from grain bulls. T...
Green Win/Lose, China Win, China Lose, Foreign Aid
Greens Win/Lose The only government-backed organization to say glyphosate is carcinogenic is the UN’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). U.S. EPA, the EU’s EFSA and other reputable government agencies have found this to not be true. But it is enough for Bayer to los...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14 – 18 April 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that around 90 percent of all winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition. According to Mr. Mishustin, winter crops cover around 20 million ha (Mha). He is expecting that...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Planting Pace, Weather, South American Outlook
The CBOT ended mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed through a slew of different data points. Perhaps the most influential news for the day was private crop analysts’ upward revisions to the Brazilian and Argentine corn crops, which combined with a strong start to planting the U.S. 2025 crop...