Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region North African and Middle East wheat, corn, and barley importers will see more competition from Russian grains as Russia has reduced its grain export taxes to zero. Russia hopes to increase grain exports which are down by 13.3 perc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as highlighted by Mexico’s retraction of its proposal to ban GMO corn, and main line U.S. agricultural groups lined up last week at the US...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest progressed by 11.5 percent during the week, lifting completion to 45 percent of the harvestable area. Fieldwork moved across the central agricultural region at a normal pace, with yields continuing to surpass historical averages. Most of the remaining standing area was either dryi...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset corn area losses while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, wh...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of uncertainty. Volatility in CBOT board soybean crush margins has lessened over the past month with the soybean futures rally being almost equal...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region North African and Middle East wheat, corn, and barley importers will see more competition from Russian grains as Russia has reduced its grain export taxes to zero. Russia hopes to increase grain exports which are down by 13.3 perc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Technical Factors, SA Weather and Exports Sink CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with traders reluctant to add bullish risk ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report on Tuesday. Too, technical weakness rapidly enveloping the soy complex spooked traders and prompted a more cautious approach. Favorable weather in Brazil, slow soybean s...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as highlighted by Mexico’s retraction of its proposal to ban GMO corn, and main line U.S. agricultural groups lined up last week at the US...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT Harvest progressed by 11.5 percent during the week, lifting completion to 45 percent of the harvestable area. Fieldwork moved across the central agricultural region at a normal pace, with yields continuing to surpass historical averages. Most of the remaining standing area was either dryi...
Market Commentary: Cattle are Hot Again, Grain Not so Much
Despite assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the announcement this morning of nearly a half million tons of new soybean sales to China, the trade just doesn’t see the plausibility of a full 12 MMT of beans being bought near-term by Beijing. Particularly not when commitment...
2026 Acreage Outlook: Expected Crop Shifts Diminishing
WPI’s second fall acreage forecasts for the 2026 U.S. crop year show producers executing a mild expansion of soybean acres that will not quite offset corn area losses while simultaneously reducing wheat area. Producers are also expected to keep minor crop acreage essentially unchanged, wh...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Market Commentary: Mixed Session and More Ahead
Corn and soybeans traded much the way they did in the overnight session, though wheat posted something of a reversal. There were flash sales of corn to Mexico and Colombia but no new soybeans sales, which was bearish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is reportedly rising as a lead po...
Soybean Crushing Margins Outlook for Q1 2025
With China back in the market for U.S. soybeans and soy product margins diverging from recent patterns, soybean crushing margins are again in a state of uncertainty. Volatility in CBOT board soybean crush margins has lessened over the past month with the soybean futures rally being almost equal...