Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports
The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...
Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation
Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance at the national level. After a weekly gain of 2.2 percentage points, harvest has reached 15.2 percent of the suitable area. Although recent rainfall has partially limited fieldwork, it has not had a significant impact on overall...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the tenth straight week. Funds added 67,000 contracts (7.7 percent) to their all-ags net long position – nearly doubling the prior week’s purchases - with buying in corn and so...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Downside Risk for Wheat into 2026/27
The current rally in wheat futures is widely known to be driven by fund buying in response to the conflict in the Middle East. Part of the price gains has also been motivated by concerns for the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains amid dry weather and the strong U.S. wheat export pace to date. What has...
Grassley and Smith Introduce Meat Industry Consolidation Bill
Previously, on 24 March, WPI wrote about fertilizer consolidation and an effort by Majority Leader John Thune to introduce mandatory price reporting for fertilizer, similar to the process for meat and dairy. However, the efforts to address concentration and market transparency continue. More re...
Transportation Perspectives - 27 March
President Trump’s announcement on Monday this week that the U.S. would postpone any attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days increased hopes that a peaceful and quick resolution can be found to the war. Subsequent conflicting messaging from both sides has undermined these hopes,...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Why Beef and Pork Prices May Fall Despite Strong Demand
Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed...
Livestock Roundup: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.3 million head, up slightly from March 2025 but down 1.5 percent from 1 December. The report was in line with the previous five-year average of a decrease of 1.8 percent from December to...
Market Commentary: CBOT Cautious Ahead of Acreage, Stocks Reports
The CBOT took a bit of a breather on Monday as traders waited for the upcoming Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, which the USDA will issue Tuesday at midday. Traders were reluctant to expand risk too much ahead of these two reports, which often change market direction and tone for...
Forlorn or Failure; Fertile or Futile; AI Impacts; Dirty Dozen Disinformation
Forlorn or Failure The spin from the WTO on the organization’s recent MC14 meetings was that a lot of decisions were adopted, progress was made, and while the event “ran out of time,” new commitments on outstanding issues can still be made in Geneva. Director-General Ngozi Oko...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance at the national level. After a weekly gain of 2.2 percentage points, harvest has reached 15.2 percent of the suitable area. Although recent rainfall has partially limited fieldwork, it has not had a significant impact on overall...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds expanding long positions across the major ag futures contracts for the tenth straight week. Funds added 67,000 contracts (7.7 percent) to their all-ags net long position – nearly doubling the prior week’s purchases - with buying in corn and so...
Market Commentary: Expected Biofuel Announcement Cannot Dislodge War Worries
Thursday marked the worst day for stocks in weeks despite word on the street to “buy,” since valuations have once again become attractive. But apparently not yet. History suggests a rebound with President Trump politically compelled to dream up some form of policy stimulus on top of...
Downside Risk for Wheat into 2026/27
The current rally in wheat futures is widely known to be driven by fund buying in response to the conflict in the Middle East. Part of the price gains has also been motivated by concerns for the HRW crop in the U.S. Plains amid dry weather and the strong U.S. wheat export pace to date. What has...
Grassley and Smith Introduce Meat Industry Consolidation Bill
Previously, on 24 March, WPI wrote about fertilizer consolidation and an effort by Majority Leader John Thune to introduce mandatory price reporting for fertilizer, similar to the process for meat and dairy. However, the efforts to address concentration and market transparency continue. More re...
Transportation Perspectives - 27 March
President Trump’s announcement on Monday this week that the U.S. would postpone any attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days increased hopes that a peaceful and quick resolution can be found to the war. Subsequent conflicting messaging from both sides has undermined these hopes,...
Market Commentary: War Worries Continue to Drive the Narrative
War-related higher energies are a mixed story for ags. They could stymie economic growth and thus demand, but they open the door for better biofuel sales. Ags were mostly in the green today, betting on the biofuel market. Reports Export Sales: Last week’s new commitments by foreign...
Why Beef and Pork Prices May Fall Despite Strong Demand
Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed...
Livestock Roundup: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA released its quarterly hogs and pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.3 million head, up slightly from March 2025 but down 1.5 percent from 1 December. The report was in line with the previous five-year average of a decrease of 1.8 percent from December to...