World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious

Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was found that these imports are undermining national security and should be subject to both tariffs and quotas. The U.S. can assert a national se...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...

Heitkamp versus Cramer: It’s On!

A little “water cooler” office conversation (albeit conducted electronically) at WPI this week centered on handicapping the North Dakota Senate race now that at-large Republican Representative Kevin Cramer is apparently is about to throw his hat in the ring against incumbent Democra...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The annual USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum will take place next week (22-23 February) in Washington, DC. USDA will issue preliminary unofficial estimates of the U.S. 2018 corn, soybean and wheat crops as part of the 10-year projections. It had released preliminary baselines in November 2017, an...

Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets

Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant proteins are now labeling their own products as “clean meat,” implying the same product at its base but qualitatively better. Prote...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly overnight with prices holding mostly steady to mildly firmer. However, prices for soybeans and wheat began to tick higher soon after trading resumed for the day session. Support was offered by agreement among all three major weather models that the so...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Fundamental Winds of Change

USDA made several changes a week ago to its supply/demand estimates for the U.S. and the world that were unusual for a February WASDE. With South American harvests just underway at this time and Northern Hemisphere supplies/demand patterns/trade flows well in place, revisions made in February W...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Weather; Export Sales; Brazil’s Soy Losses, NOPA Crush Report

Little Rain in Dry Argentine Areas until March Two weather forecasters in Argentina have told Reuters that they do not expect any break in the drought impacting parts of Argentina until at least March. "The situation is serious. It would almost take a miracle for the drought not to continue thr...

livestock feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

If this was NPR’s Marketplace, we’d be playing the happy music right now. CBOT grains and oilseeds, along with most CME livestock futures, closed higher today with active end-user buying. The soy complex continues to rally and give excellent margins to both U.S. and Argentine crushe...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the latter shows interesting trends in corn and soybean exports, and it also provides insights into YTD bookings for wheat, barley, soymeal and soy...

livestock

Aussie Beef; U.S. Cattle; Moratorium on Iowa Livestock Sought

Aussie Beef Back on the Global Market Australia’s beef exports are making a comeback, up 19.7 percent last month over January 2017, and they could be back on trend to match a more normal five-year average. All five of Australia’s top markets imported more beef in January than a year...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The overnight session found prices trading mostly lower, which was in line with selling late Tuesday that took prices down to closes that were mostly well below session highs. No doubt some of that late selling was profit taking after the recent rally. However, open interest increases for soyme...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 February 2018 A moderate upward trend continued in the domestic grain market (in RUB expression) due to growing export prices and the weakening ruble. On the export market, milling wheat prices rose to $199/MT FOB Black Sea (+$1/MT) with purchase prices up slightly at...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changing supply and demand situation, while live cattle and lean hog futures point to opportunities in the meat sector.  ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

It was a mixed day at the CBOT with wheat lower, corn higher, and the entire soy complex (yes, including soyoil) higher. Trading, however, lacked the vigor of recent days with little fresh news to act upon.  Outside markets are mixed with U.S. equities higher (Dow gaining 207 points and th...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course and Falls Below 1 MMT Pre-Lunar New Year holiday demand pushed wholesale soymeal prices slightly higher as of 2 February 2018 and also helped send the nationwide inventory back below the 1 MMT threshold to 934,900 MT, a 116,800 MT (-11.1 percent) drop...

soy-oilseeds

Four Reasons to be Bearish Soybeans

Yesterday soybean contracts experienced a momentary setback because of China's cancellation of U.S. soybeans and a weak export inspection number. Traders who shorted the soy complex may now question if their selling was premature. However, their selling was probably just fine because the domina...

Historical Inequality; Fighting Fear; Not Innovative; Spinning Wheels

Historical Inequality This week President Trump resurrected his contention that a “reciprocal tax” should be imposed that equalizes the tariffs applied by the U.S. on imports with those applied by trading partners on equivalent goods from the United States. Such a move would likely...

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious

Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was found that these imports are undermining national security and should be subject to both tariffs and quotas. The U.S. can assert a national se...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...

Heitkamp versus Cramer: It’s On!

A little “water cooler” office conversation (albeit conducted electronically) at WPI this week centered on handicapping the North Dakota Senate race now that at-large Republican Representative Kevin Cramer is apparently is about to throw his hat in the ring against incumbent Democra...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The annual USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum will take place next week (22-23 February) in Washington, DC. USDA will issue preliminary unofficial estimates of the U.S. 2018 corn, soybean and wheat crops as part of the 10-year projections. It had released preliminary baselines in November 2017, an...

Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets

Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant proteins are now labeling their own products as “clean meat,” implying the same product at its base but qualitatively better. Prote...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly overnight with prices holding mostly steady to mildly firmer. However, prices for soybeans and wheat began to tick higher soon after trading resumed for the day session. Support was offered by agreement among all three major weather models that the so...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Fundamental Winds of Change

USDA made several changes a week ago to its supply/demand estimates for the U.S. and the world that were unusual for a February WASDE. With South American harvests just underway at this time and Northern Hemisphere supplies/demand patterns/trade flows well in place, revisions made in February W...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Weather; Export Sales; Brazil’s Soy Losses, NOPA Crush Report

Little Rain in Dry Argentine Areas until March Two weather forecasters in Argentina have told Reuters that they do not expect any break in the drought impacting parts of Argentina until at least March. "The situation is serious. It would almost take a miracle for the drought not to continue thr...

livestock feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

If this was NPR’s Marketplace, we’d be playing the happy music right now. CBOT grains and oilseeds, along with most CME livestock futures, closed higher today with active end-user buying. The soy complex continues to rally and give excellent margins to both U.S. and Argentine crushe...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Futures Prices

Today’s closing prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hog futures are shown along with USDA’s Export Sales results. Analysis of the latter shows interesting trends in corn and soybean exports, and it also provides insights into YTD bookings for wheat, barley, soymeal and soy...

livestock

Aussie Beef; U.S. Cattle; Moratorium on Iowa Livestock Sought

Aussie Beef Back on the Global Market Australia’s beef exports are making a comeback, up 19.7 percent last month over January 2017, and they could be back on trend to match a more normal five-year average. All five of Australia’s top markets imported more beef in January than a year...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The overnight session found prices trading mostly lower, which was in line with selling late Tuesday that took prices down to closes that were mostly well below session highs. No doubt some of that late selling was profit taking after the recent rally. However, open interest increases for soyme...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 February 2018 A moderate upward trend continued in the domestic grain market (in RUB expression) due to growing export prices and the weakening ruble. On the export market, milling wheat prices rose to $199/MT FOB Black Sea (+$1/MT) with purchase prices up slightly at...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into HRW and HRS wheat futures. Shifts in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures indicate a changing supply and demand situation, while live cattle and lean hog futures point to opportunities in the meat sector.  ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

It was a mixed day at the CBOT with wheat lower, corn higher, and the entire soy complex (yes, including soyoil) higher. Trading, however, lacked the vigor of recent days with little fresh news to act upon.  Outside markets are mixed with U.S. equities higher (Dow gaining 207 points and th...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course and Falls Below 1 MMT Pre-Lunar New Year holiday demand pushed wholesale soymeal prices slightly higher as of 2 February 2018 and also helped send the nationwide inventory back below the 1 MMT threshold to 934,900 MT, a 116,800 MT (-11.1 percent) drop...

soy-oilseeds

Four Reasons to be Bearish Soybeans

Yesterday soybean contracts experienced a momentary setback because of China's cancellation of U.S. soybeans and a weak export inspection number. Traders who shorted the soy complex may now question if their selling was premature. However, their selling was probably just fine because the domina...

Historical Inequality; Fighting Fear; Not Innovative; Spinning Wheels

Historical Inequality This week President Trump resurrected his contention that a “reciprocal tax” should be imposed that equalizes the tariffs applied by the U.S. on imports with those applied by trading partners on equivalent goods from the United States. Such a move would likely...

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