World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

Reading Trump, Again; Economic Focus; Market Signals; Iran and China Impacts

Reading Trump, Again The Trump administration’s announcement of a Section 232 investigation into automobile imports as a national security threat only reinforced the viewpoint of critics that he is a protectionist. However, the goal is not new duties on car imports but leverage to negotia...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The general grain and soy rally surged ahead overnight with soybeans and wheat reaching double-digit gains, while more timid corn futures managed to climb 3-4 cents. Speculation that China may commit to purchase a large amount of additional U.S. ag products and a list of weather concerns around...

livestock

Cattle on Feed

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May to be 104.8 percent of last year with April placements and marketings at 90.6 percent and 106 percent, respectively, of the totals for April 20...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Export Taxes; China’s Soy Purchases…

Argentina May Freeze Soy Export Tax Rates Argentine Finance Minister Nicolas Dujovne has proposed freezing export tax rates for soybeans and soymeal/soyoil at the current levels of 27.5 percent and 24.5 percent, respectively. Under current policy, they are supposed to decline by a half-percent...

wheat soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Grains and oilseeds started the morning sharply higher on weather worries and the improved trade outlook. As the day progressed, however, President Trump’s comments seemingly downplaying the progress made on the trade front weighed on the markets. Profit taking was notable today as well,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Trade Crossroads

It can be argued that the most immediate impact on prices for major U.S. agricultural crops and products that the government can cause comes from actions affecting the short-term volume of exports. The form and direction of farm policies and farm programs may have a more important long-term eff...

Clobbering Europe; Technology Downfall

Clobbering Europe EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malmström correctly expressed doubts that the latest offer to the Trump administration for avoiding its steel and aluminum tariffs would be acceptable. It is notable that Europe’s offer for better balancing transatlantic relations involved...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures traded both narrowly and slightly lower overnight in diminished volume. A flurry of sometimes contradictory statements from administration trade officials, including the inevitable tweets from President Trump, left many observers wondering just what had been agreed to with...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 May 2018 Domestic grain prices on the Russian market mainly increased for last season’s production in all regions except the South, which saw a drop as traders anticipated market entry of the new crop. Meanwhile, export prices decreased. The average milling wh...

livestock wheat feed-grains

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

It was a day of green at the CBOT/CME, with grains, oilseeds, and livestock contracts all rising. Trade resolutions (tentative though they may be) added to export expectations while weather continues supporting the wheat market.  U.S. equities are slightly higher presently with the S&P...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Again as Crushing Output Drops Because of declining downstream demand, domestic crushers cut utilization rates to below 50 percent capacity. Even with the lower prices for soymeal, feed producers have been reluctant to make significant commitments with the hog m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s active trade-driven session saw the huge unwinding of long soybean—short corn/wheat spreads, thanks to the agreement to suspend threats of tariffs from both the U.S. and China. The overnight session found corn and wheat futures trying to bounce back from being the sell l...

More Massive, Meaningful; NAFTA Reality; Farm Bill Deal

More Massive, Meaningful There are still problems interpreting the meaning of the China-U.S. trade truce announced this past weekend as well as questions of substance and about durability. President Trump said there would be “massive” increases in Chinese purchases while the joint s...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Global Soybean Demand Growth; South American and Ukrainian Crop Forecasts

Global Soybean Demand Continues to Outpace Demand for Other Major Crops USDA’s forecasts for global demand in 2018/19 indicate growth in that for soybeans will continue to outpace increases for other major commodities. This has been the pattern for the past 27 years provided adequate supp...

wheat soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Weather support and trade optimism boosted the grains markets today. The spread unwinding that hammered the wheat market yesterday was done, allowing the complex to recover. Livestock futures were mixed with a bullish rally stalled for today.  U.S. equities mixed presently with the S&P...

Fed’s Next Move

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting again in June, and the markets are expecting a federal fund rate hike to 2 percent. The only real surprise would be if the increase was more than 25 basis points. When the rate was raised in March to the current 1...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Ramadan, the month of fasting, started last week in the region’s Muslim countries. It continues until about 16 June and is then followed by the Eid holidays. Business and banking hours will be reduced during this time, and customer conta...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Wheat’s Story

We often talk about the stories that are told to grain and soy futures markets (and those who trade in them) by the underlying crop that each represents. Essentially, these stories are simply the conclusions drawn from current and prospective supply/demand fundamentals regarding how they might...

Immodest Measurements; Debtor Impacts; Confess the Data

Immodest Measurements The China-U.S. truce and concentrated effort at achieving a trade agreement has brought optimism, but it should be a limited amount. President Trump announced that China has agreed to buy “massive” amounts of additional agricultural products from the U.S. As a...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian soybean market fell steadily last week as the depreciating Brazilian real pressured prices. The currency reached 3.8 reals/USD this past week, marking a 22 percent year-to-date devaluation (the exchange rate was 3.1 reals/USD in early 2018). Farmer selling has been...

feed-grains

The Importance of Sorghum

China removed the import duties on U.S. sorghum last week, and that gave the corn market a real lift. It has been importing U.S. sorghum since the flap over the unapproved Syngenta corn hybrid started several years ago. While the removal of these duties was important to the market from a psycho...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets opened strong last night, and the soybean market extended that strength into big gains today. The story was the unexpectedly good news that the U.S. and China have declared a truce in the potential trade war with all potential duties and tariffs suspended. U.S. soybean exports to China...

Senate Farm Bill Outlook

Now that the farm bill failed in a vote on the House floor, all eyes are on the Senate as a chance to regain some momentum. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) and Ranking Minority Member Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) are expected to have an agreement this week regarding...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The cash market in the Black Sea remained about unchanged despite the U.S. and EU futures markets’ sharp rally. Crop conditions in Russia and Ukraine are generally considered as good, although there are dry regions in both countries where the wheat is starting to suffer from...

Reading Trump, Again; Economic Focus; Market Signals; Iran and China Impacts

Reading Trump, Again The Trump administration’s announcement of a Section 232 investigation into automobile imports as a national security threat only reinforced the viewpoint of critics that he is a protectionist. However, the goal is not new duties on car imports but leverage to negotia...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The general grain and soy rally surged ahead overnight with soybeans and wheat reaching double-digit gains, while more timid corn futures managed to climb 3-4 cents. Speculation that China may commit to purchase a large amount of additional U.S. ag products and a list of weather concerns around...

livestock

Cattle on Feed

USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total number of cattle on feed as of 1 May to be 104.8 percent of last year with April placements and marketings at 90.6 percent and 106 percent, respectively, of the totals for April 20...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Export Taxes; China’s Soy Purchases…

Argentina May Freeze Soy Export Tax Rates Argentine Finance Minister Nicolas Dujovne has proposed freezing export tax rates for soybeans and soymeal/soyoil at the current levels of 27.5 percent and 24.5 percent, respectively. Under current policy, they are supposed to decline by a half-percent...

wheat soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Grains and oilseeds started the morning sharply higher on weather worries and the improved trade outlook. As the day progressed, however, President Trump’s comments seemingly downplaying the progress made on the trade front weighed on the markets. Profit taking was notable today as well,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Trade Crossroads

It can be argued that the most immediate impact on prices for major U.S. agricultural crops and products that the government can cause comes from actions affecting the short-term volume of exports. The form and direction of farm policies and farm programs may have a more important long-term eff...

Clobbering Europe; Technology Downfall

Clobbering Europe EU Trade Minister Cecilia Malmström correctly expressed doubts that the latest offer to the Trump administration for avoiding its steel and aluminum tariffs would be acceptable. It is notable that Europe’s offer for better balancing transatlantic relations involved...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures traded both narrowly and slightly lower overnight in diminished volume. A flurry of sometimes contradictory statements from administration trade officials, including the inevitable tweets from President Trump, left many observers wondering just what had been agreed to with...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 14-18 May 2018 Domestic grain prices on the Russian market mainly increased for last season’s production in all regions except the South, which saw a drop as traders anticipated market entry of the new crop. Meanwhile, export prices decreased. The average milling wh...

livestock wheat feed-grains

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

It was a day of green at the CBOT/CME, with grains, oilseeds, and livestock contracts all rising. Trade resolutions (tentative though they may be) added to export expectations while weather continues supporting the wheat market.  U.S. equities are slightly higher presently with the S&P...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Falls Again as Crushing Output Drops Because of declining downstream demand, domestic crushers cut utilization rates to below 50 percent capacity. Even with the lower prices for soymeal, feed producers have been reluctant to make significant commitments with the hog m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s active trade-driven session saw the huge unwinding of long soybean—short corn/wheat spreads, thanks to the agreement to suspend threats of tariffs from both the U.S. and China. The overnight session found corn and wheat futures trying to bounce back from being the sell l...

More Massive, Meaningful; NAFTA Reality; Farm Bill Deal

More Massive, Meaningful There are still problems interpreting the meaning of the China-U.S. trade truce announced this past weekend as well as questions of substance and about durability. President Trump said there would be “massive” increases in Chinese purchases while the joint s...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Global Soybean Demand Growth; South American and Ukrainian Crop Forecasts

Global Soybean Demand Continues to Outpace Demand for Other Major Crops USDA’s forecasts for global demand in 2018/19 indicate growth in that for soybeans will continue to outpace increases for other major commodities. This has been the pattern for the past 27 years provided adequate supp...

wheat soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Weather support and trade optimism boosted the grains markets today. The spread unwinding that hammered the wheat market yesterday was done, allowing the complex to recover. Livestock futures were mixed with a bullish rally stalled for today.  U.S. equities mixed presently with the S&P...

Fed’s Next Move

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be meeting again in June, and the markets are expecting a federal fund rate hike to 2 percent. The only real surprise would be if the increase was more than 25 basis points. When the rate was raised in March to the current 1...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Ramadan, the month of fasting, started last week in the region’s Muslim countries. It continues until about 16 June and is then followed by the Eid holidays. Business and banking hours will be reduced during this time, and customer conta...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Wheat’s Story

We often talk about the stories that are told to grain and soy futures markets (and those who trade in them) by the underlying crop that each represents. Essentially, these stories are simply the conclusions drawn from current and prospective supply/demand fundamentals regarding how they might...

Immodest Measurements; Debtor Impacts; Confess the Data

Immodest Measurements The China-U.S. truce and concentrated effort at achieving a trade agreement has brought optimism, but it should be a limited amount. President Trump announced that China has agreed to buy “massive” amounts of additional agricultural products from the U.S. As a...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The Brazilian soybean market fell steadily last week as the depreciating Brazilian real pressured prices. The currency reached 3.8 reals/USD this past week, marking a 22 percent year-to-date devaluation (the exchange rate was 3.1 reals/USD in early 2018). Farmer selling has been...

feed-grains

The Importance of Sorghum

China removed the import duties on U.S. sorghum last week, and that gave the corn market a real lift. It has been importing U.S. sorghum since the flap over the unapproved Syngenta corn hybrid started several years ago. While the removal of these duties was important to the market from a psycho...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets opened strong last night, and the soybean market extended that strength into big gains today. The story was the unexpectedly good news that the U.S. and China have declared a truce in the potential trade war with all potential duties and tariffs suspended. U.S. soybean exports to China...

Senate Farm Bill Outlook

Now that the farm bill failed in a vote on the House floor, all eyes are on the Senate as a chance to regain some momentum. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) and Ranking Minority Member Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) are expected to have an agreement this week regarding...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The cash market in the Black Sea remained about unchanged despite the U.S. and EU futures markets’ sharp rally. Crop conditions in Russia and Ukraine are generally considered as good, although there are dry regions in both countries where the wheat is starting to suffer from...

Select Filters to Apply

  • Markets
  • World

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up