Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates
There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn or soybeans for their loved ones today, but maybe a wee bit of HRS, which closed up today and uniquely was higher for the week. There were...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record Low Placements, Second Lowest Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of November since the series began in 1996, dropping 11 percent on the year due to a tight cattle su...
It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025
December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For cow-calf producers, the results from all but the last two weeks of the year indicate profits easily hit a record high, even on an inflation-ad...
Market Commentary: Corn Firm, Bean Weak, Weak Wheat Rebound
Overall, it remains a sideways market with corn showing the most confidence but overall market weakness that is both seasonal, and reflective of the fundamentals. China’s purchases of soybeans are now humdrum, but rumor of a possible Chinese corn purchase added a little spice to the marke...
Livestock Roundup: Meat Market Recap, Beef is Driver
Reported November meat sales data show meat department sales were positive and have remained so since Q1 of 2023. In all cases, dollar gains were from a combination of inflation and demand growth. Indeed, meat demand has remained remarkably resilient through 2025. On a per capita basis, chicken...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms
Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 December 2025 Russia’s grain market continued its bearish trend that began in early December. Global fundamentals remain the primary pressure point, and Russia is no exception given its strong linkage to international trade flows. Exceptions include barte...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 17 December)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers
Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...
Bearish Sugar Prices to Continue Despite Production Increases
The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.119 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 1,800 STRV from November as the decrease in expected imports of refined organic and specialty sugar, which pays the high tier, out of quota duty, more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks and...
China Market Analysis
Beans to Storage China is carrying out its annual purge of stored soybeans, selling them at around a half million tons per week over two months at auction. The amount of market discount depends more on quality, which is better than a few years ago when the need for stock rotation was newly appr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling stayed limited across much of Europe last week as low flat prices, year-end cash-flow planning, and holiday-period logistics reduced the appetite to move tonnage. The practical impact was a thinner spot market: bids softened on paper, but physical values in se...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Iran says that there will be no problems with grain imports and distribution although news stories say that major importer Modalal Group is facing financial difficulties due to EU banking sanctions and a severe shortage of foreign...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
EXPORT TAXES The government announced last week a permanent reduction in export taxes on major agricultural products. The revised rates are as follows: Soybeans: 26 percent to 24 percent Byproducts: 24.5 percent to 22.5 percent Wheat and barley: 9.5 percent to 7.5 percent Corn and sorghum: 9.5...
European Revival; The Worm Turns
European Revival The transatlantic relationship is rapidly evolving and the story is told by some recent headlines… The U.S. has already swamped Europe with its technology and now it wants to own the EU’s energy market as well. European diplomats in Washington message the Tr...
Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Early Details
The USDA will base the $12 billion in farmer payments it recently announced under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program on 2025 planted acreage. The department announced that acreage reports, as of 19 December, by 5 p.m., should be “accurate.” Payment rates will be announced th...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were softer last week with Capesize markets seeing weaker interest from East Australia and other Pacific locales. Traders are describing spot tonnage in the Pacific as “abundant”, a mentality that is pressuring rates. Similarly, demand for C3 ex Brazil and West Afri...
Trade Deficit Shrinks, Fed Cuts Federal Funds Rate at December
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020. The decline in the deficit was due to a large increase in exports, which rose $8.4 billion. Imports were up a more modest $1.9 billion. The President may see this as a win, as the cor...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheets
Following the December WASDE report from Tuesday, WPI has updated our corn, wheat, and soybean supply and use models to examine market trends for the rest of MY 2025/26. Current indications for U.S. grain complex point to uneven fundamentals across these crops, particularly in terms of global e...
Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates
There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn or soybeans for their loved ones today, but maybe a wee bit of HRS, which closed up today and uniquely was higher for the week. There were...
Cattle on Feed Report: Record Low Placements, Second Lowest Marketings
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.7 million head, 98 percent of last year. Placements were the lowest for the month of November since the series began in 1996, dropping 11 percent on the year due to a tight cattle su...
It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025
December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For cow-calf producers, the results from all but the last two weeks of the year indicate profits easily hit a record high, even on an inflation-ad...
Market Commentary: Corn Firm, Bean Weak, Weak Wheat Rebound
Overall, it remains a sideways market with corn showing the most confidence but overall market weakness that is both seasonal, and reflective of the fundamentals. China’s purchases of soybeans are now humdrum, but rumor of a possible Chinese corn purchase added a little spice to the marke...
Livestock Roundup: Meat Market Recap, Beef is Driver
Reported November meat sales data show meat department sales were positive and have remained so since Q1 of 2023. In all cases, dollar gains were from a combination of inflation and demand growth. Indeed, meat demand has remained remarkably resilient through 2025. On a per capita basis, chicken...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 2 December. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Wheat, Soybeans Fall Further
Bears were once again in charge of the CBOT on Wednesday, though they temporarily relinquished control of the corn market to bulls. Funds were aggressive sellers again in soybeans, soymeal, and wheat futures amid bearish fundamentals for each of the commodities and pushed wheat to a new contrac...
Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms
Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grains Market: 8–12 December 2025 Russia’s grain market continued its bearish trend that began in early December. Global fundamentals remain the primary pressure point, and Russia is no exception given its strong linkage to international trade flows. Exceptions include barte...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins reversed sharply lower last week, swinging back into negative territory after six straight weeks of positive returns. Margins fell $145/head to –$75 as fed cattle prices rebounded $7/cwt (live basis), while the Choice cutout slipped nearly $7/cwt. The rapid compression...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 17 December)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Market Commentary: Downtrend Dominance; Wheat Hits New Lows; Soy Falls on Crush Numbers
Each year, the Chinese zodiac calendar features one animal to mark and typify the coming 365 days. If that process were applied to CBOT trade, Tuesday would have been the “day of the bear”, with all major grain markets ending in the red. The only specific trigger was the bearish NOP...
Bearish Sugar Prices to Continue Despite Production Increases
The U.S. 2025/26 sugar supply is forecast at 14.119 million short tons, raw value (STRV), down 1,800 STRV from November as the decrease in expected imports of refined organic and specialty sugar, which pays the high tier, out of quota duty, more than offsets the increase in beginning stocks and...
China Market Analysis
Beans to Storage China is carrying out its annual purge of stored soybeans, selling them at around a half million tons per week over two months at auction. The amount of market discount depends more on quality, which is better than a few years ago when the need for stock rotation was newly appr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Farmer selling stayed limited across much of Europe last week as low flat prices, year-end cash-flow planning, and holiday-period logistics reduced the appetite to move tonnage. The practical impact was a thinner spot market: bids softened on paper, but physical values in se...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – Mea Region Iran says that there will be no problems with grain imports and distribution although news stories say that major importer Modalal Group is facing financial difficulties due to EU banking sanctions and a severe shortage of foreign...
Market Commentary: Grain Futures Buying Demand; Livestock Futures Buying Time
Bears were in control of the CBOT again on Monday with technical pressure and bearish fundamental headlines driving prices lower. Soybeans and wheat were the downside leaders for the day as funds accelerated their exit from long positions in these markets amid the chart weakness. Corn futures s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
EXPORT TAXES The government announced last week a permanent reduction in export taxes on major agricultural products. The revised rates are as follows: Soybeans: 26 percent to 24 percent Byproducts: 24.5 percent to 22.5 percent Wheat and barley: 9.5 percent to 7.5 percent Corn and sorghum: 9.5...
European Revival; The Worm Turns
European Revival The transatlantic relationship is rapidly evolving and the story is told by some recent headlines… The U.S. has already swamped Europe with its technology and now it wants to own the EU’s energy market as well. European diplomats in Washington message the Tr...
Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Early Details
The USDA will base the $12 billion in farmer payments it recently announced under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program on 2025 planted acreage. The department announced that acreage reports, as of 19 December, by 5 p.m., should be “accurate.” Payment rates will be announced th...
Market Commentary: Bear, Bear, Every Where a Bear
Today was National Poinsettia Day, a plant that is supposed to symbolize goodwill and success but that is only true for the bears today. There was red all over Chicago and New York as investors counted their blessings of too much grain and too much risk. The only thing rising in value was...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry-bulk markets were softer last week with Capesize markets seeing weaker interest from East Australia and other Pacific locales. Traders are describing spot tonnage in the Pacific as “abundant”, a mentality that is pressuring rates. Similarly, demand for C3 ex Brazil and West Afri...
Trade Deficit Shrinks, Fed Cuts Federal Funds Rate at December
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020. The decline in the deficit was due to a large increase in exports, which rose $8.4 billion. Imports were up a more modest $1.9 billion. The President may see this as a win, as the cor...
WPI Quarterly Grain Balance Sheets
Following the December WASDE report from Tuesday, WPI has updated our corn, wheat, and soybean supply and use models to examine market trends for the rest of MY 2025/26. Current indications for U.S. grain complex point to uneven fundamentals across these crops, particularly in terms of global e...