Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year. Total placements were down 6 percent but were above the average pre-report estimate. Marketings were down 6 percent, in...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize markets falling back after their recent rally while Panamax and Supramax values continue to firm. The Atlantic and Pacific markets saw diverging trends with the former seeing generally steady trade (except for spot positions) while the latter...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to changes in global crop ending stocks. The reasoning offered was the perception that corn futures are becoming less responsive to declining glo...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 97.4 and 98.6 percent of 1 August 2024. Those estimates imply an on-feed i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 August)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market needs and this caused bearish sentiments in most of Russia’s regions. Some regions like Siberia and Ural are sensitive to the harvesting...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest an increase from last year’s 3.43 MMT purchase. The government had originally targeted a very enthusiastic 5.0 MMT. The local wheat ha...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain deeply negative, however, which will be a concern for cattle markets going forward. One encouraging factor is the broad-based strength acros...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Oil Cost and Input Forecast
According to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. petroleum production is forecast to hit 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 due primarily to improved well productivity. Increased supply will lower prices in 2026 and result in a fall in output to 13.28 million bpd in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from the 2024 crop. Wheat production was increased from 21.6 MMT to 22.4 MMT and corn from 4.5 MMT to 4.6 MMT. Heavy July rains boosted corn yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...
Market Commentary: Some Odds, Some Ends, Some Notable Developments
Grain and oilseed contracts traded mixed to lower on Friday, torn between being over-weight against large yields, and under bought in the face of a late summer loss of moisture combined with a litany of potentially damaging disease outbreaks. The number of foliar diseases that have been s...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Report
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today at 3 p.m. Total cattle on feed amounted to 10.9 million head, 98 percent of last year. Total placements were down 6 percent but were above the average pre-report estimate. Marketings were down 6 percent, in...
WPI Grain Transportation Report
Dry Bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize markets falling back after their recent rally while Panamax and Supramax values continue to firm. The Atlantic and Pacific markets saw diverging trends with the former seeing generally steady trade (except for spot positions) while the latter...
Market Commentary: Market Wiggles on Pro Farmer, Weather and Demand
Yesterday’s grain and oilseed rally extended, for the most part, today. While wheat led the complex upward yesterday, today’s higher volume trading corn and the soy complex gave the thrust in today’s session. Soymeal and the livestock complex took a breather today. The incomin...
Are Commodity Prices Ignoring Global Stocks?
WPI recently received a question from a client asking, in effect, if global crop prices have become immune – or at least less sensitive – to changes in global crop ending stocks. The reasoning offered was the perception that corn futures are becoming less responsive to declining glo...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.1 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 97.4 and 98.6 percent of 1 August 2024. Those estimates imply an on-feed i...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies, but is it a Correction or a Trend Reversal?
The CBOT turned higher at mid-week with wheat leading the way and corn and soybeans following on somewhat minor news items. Wheat saw a strong rally develop that created bullish key reversals on the charts after rumors of Asian export demand – fueled by the U.S. Gulf’s discount to R...
Rearranged Trade Impacts
U.S. tariffs are reordering world trade and may further impact the nation’s agricultural exports. While soybean exports to China are stalled as that nation redirects all of its purchases to South America, that has been a political position that ignores the lower cost of U.S. soybeans. How...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 August)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11 – 15 August 2025 During the second week of August, the market realized that harvesting produces all the grain the market needs and this caused bearish sentiments in most of Russia’s regions. Some regions like Siberia and Ural are sensitive to the harvesting...
Market Commentary: Green Crop Fields Create Sea of Market Red
The CBOT was sharply lower on Tuesday as traders reacted to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, in which corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions and development were highly favorable. That, combined with high corn yield and soybean pod count estimates from various crop tours sent the mark...
MAHA Draft Report Softens Pesticide Language
On 13 February President Trump signed Executive Order 14212 entitled “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission (MAHA),” establishing the commission and charging it to submit an assessment on the status of the health of America, which was submitted on...
Weaponizing Trade; De-Weaponizing MAHA
Weaponizing Trade Using trade to influence geopolitical outcomes is not new but its use has intensified. While some might use the U.S. as the cause of its escalation, the American reaction is more of a lag effect to pre-existing conditions. Australia and now Canada can attest that China’s...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s government purchased 3.93 MMT of local wheat from this year’s harvest an increase from last year’s 3.43 MMT purchase. The government had originally targeted a very enthusiastic 5.0 MMT. The local wheat ha...
Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins improved for the second straight week, adding more than $100/head to profits thanks to record highs in the beef market. Margins remain deeply negative, however, which will be a concern for cattle markets going forward. One encouraging factor is the broad-based strength acros...
Market Commentary: Corn Defies Red Trend at CBOT
The CBOT started the new week on a mixed note with wheat and soybeans turning lower while corn strengthened for the fourth straight day. Technical action was mixed as funds covered corn shorts but expanded bearish positions in wheat and, to a lesser extent, the soy complex. Fresh news was light...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 18 August)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Oil Cost and Input Forecast
According to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. petroleum production is forecast to hit 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 due primarily to improved well productivity. Increased supply will lower prices in 2026 and result in a fall in output to 13.28 million bpd in...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Grains Wheat Argentina’s wheat crop continues to show good development across most of the country. While some areas remain affected by flooding, favorable weather has helped reduce excess moisture in many fields. In the core region, July rainfall exceeded the historical average, leaving c...
Negotiating Positions; Righteous Stand
Negotiating Positions Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is being joined in Washington today by EU leaders as they discuss with President Trump the next possible steps in the peace effort with Russia. European leaders bristled over being left out of the initial talks last Friday with Vladim...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The Association of German Cooperatives (DRV) raised its forecast for the German grain harvest from 41.7 MMT to 43.0 MMT, up 10 percent from the 2024 crop. Wheat production was increased from 21.6 MMT to 22.4 MMT and corn from 4.5 MMT to 4.6 MMT. Heavy July rains boosted corn yield...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back their slightly bearish combined bets across the ag space. The past several weeks have featured few meaningful changes in the net ag position — the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three class...
Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week
Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...
Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...