World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets

Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant proteins are now labeling their own products as “clean meat,” implying the same product at its base but qualitatively better. Prote...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course and Falls Below 1 MMT Pre-Lunar New Year holiday demand pushed wholesale soymeal prices slightly higher as of 2 February 2018 and also helped send the nationwide inventory back below the 1 MMT threshold to 934,900 MT, a 116,800 MT (-11.1 percent) drop...

soy-oilseeds

Four Reasons to be Bearish Soybeans

Yesterday soybean contracts experienced a momentary setback because of China's cancellation of U.S. soybeans and a weak export inspection number. Traders who shorted the soy complex may now question if their selling was premature. However, their selling was probably just fine because the domina...

Historical Inequality; Fighting Fear; Not Innovative; Spinning Wheels

Historical Inequality This week President Trump resurrected his contention that a “reciprocal tax” should be imposed that equalizes the tariffs applied by the U.S. on imports with those applied by trading partners on equivalent goods from the United States. Such a move would likely...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Rains Disappoint; Soy Sales Cancellations; Egypt’s Sunflower Oil Purchase

Argentine Rains Disappoint The rains that fell last Friday and Saturday in Argentina were far too little and not widespread enough to help the soybean crop, occurring mostly in the northern provinces that did not need precipitation. The driest areas are in the provinces of Buenos Aires and La P...

Rural Infrastructure; Chinese Countryside; EU Identity Politics; Ag Budget

Rural Infrastructure President Trump’s newly announced infrastructure plan gives some priority to rural areas by making them an early beneficiary of the funding match. A boost to rural broadband service is mentioned as a priority. Skeptics argue that the proposed federal portion cannot at...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets started with good gains in the Sunday evening session, led by double-digit increases in soybeans on the heels of a sharp rally in soymeal futures. Overnight volume was also good with over 40,000 contracts of corn and 36,000 contracts of soybeans. Chicago wheat volume exceeded 20,000...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics On 9 February, a portion of the grain truck drivers’ union called for a strike across Argentina that is also preventing those who are not members from working as well. The strike is generating losses of $100 million/day across the entire value chain. The combination of not...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The February WASDE

The February WASDE typically generates few surprises. In that sense, today’s report stands out as containing some changes that exceeded expectations. The surprises, if that is what they should be called, are not a matter of direction but of degree. And they involve changes in U.S. supply/...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

Soybean oil prices are forecast at 31 to 34 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.  Global oilseed crush for 2017/18 is projected at 487.5 million tons, down 1.0 million. Reduced soybean crush for Argentina and India accounts for most of the change. Global oilseed stocks are pr...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets

Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant proteins are now labeling their own products as “clean meat,” implying the same product at its base but qualitatively better. Prote...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course and Falls Below 1 MMT Pre-Lunar New Year holiday demand pushed wholesale soymeal prices slightly higher as of 2 February 2018 and also helped send the nationwide inventory back below the 1 MMT threshold to 934,900 MT, a 116,800 MT (-11.1 percent) drop...

soy-oilseeds

Four Reasons to be Bearish Soybeans

Yesterday soybean contracts experienced a momentary setback because of China's cancellation of U.S. soybeans and a weak export inspection number. Traders who shorted the soy complex may now question if their selling was premature. However, their selling was probably just fine because the domina...

Historical Inequality; Fighting Fear; Not Innovative; Spinning Wheels

Historical Inequality This week President Trump resurrected his contention that a “reciprocal tax” should be imposed that equalizes the tariffs applied by the U.S. on imports with those applied by trading partners on equivalent goods from the United States. Such a move would likely...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentine Rains Disappoint; Soy Sales Cancellations; Egypt’s Sunflower Oil Purchase

Argentine Rains Disappoint The rains that fell last Friday and Saturday in Argentina were far too little and not widespread enough to help the soybean crop, occurring mostly in the northern provinces that did not need precipitation. The driest areas are in the provinces of Buenos Aires and La P...

Rural Infrastructure; Chinese Countryside; EU Identity Politics; Ag Budget

Rural Infrastructure President Trump’s newly announced infrastructure plan gives some priority to rural areas by making them an early beneficiary of the funding match. A boost to rural broadband service is mentioned as a priority. Skeptics argue that the proposed federal portion cannot at...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets started with good gains in the Sunday evening session, led by double-digit increases in soybeans on the heels of a sharp rally in soymeal futures. Overnight volume was also good with over 40,000 contracts of corn and 36,000 contracts of soybeans. Chicago wheat volume exceeded 20,000...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Macroeconomics On 9 February, a portion of the grain truck drivers’ union called for a strike across Argentina that is also preventing those who are not members from working as well. The strike is generating losses of $100 million/day across the entire value chain. The combination of not...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The February WASDE

The February WASDE typically generates few surprises. In that sense, today’s report stands out as containing some changes that exceeded expectations. The surprises, if that is what they should be called, are not a matter of direction but of degree. And they involve changes in U.S. supply/...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

Soybean oil prices are forecast at 31 to 34 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.  Global oilseed crush for 2017/18 is projected at 487.5 million tons, down 1.0 million. Reduced soybean crush for Argentina and India accounts for most of the change. Global oilseed stocks are pr...

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