Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
China Market Analysis
2025 Review The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China produced a record 714.9 MMT of grain in 2025, an increase of 8.4 MMT, or 2.6 percent. The volume was achieved despite bouts of drought, prolonged rainfall, and flooding. Most of the increase was in maize, and output was booste...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
China Market Analysis
Economy and Diet The decline in China’s population, with the birthrate falling 17 percent to its lowest since 1949, is likely having some impact on total food consumption. Slower-than-reported economic growth may also be a factor, as 2025 saw lower agricultural prices and fewer imports. M...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
China Market Analysis
Beef China’s new import safeguard on beef continues to stir the market. Its largest impact is on the biggest supplier of protein, Brazil. Suppliers in that country say they will have to reduce production and slaughter capacity. Meanwhile, Ireland is pleased that Beijing has lifted a ban t...
WASDE Corn - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre ris...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
China Market Analysis
2025 Review The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China produced a record 714.9 MMT of grain in 2025, an increase of 8.4 MMT, or 2.6 percent. The volume was achieved despite bouts of drought, prolonged rainfall, and flooding. Most of the increase was in maize, and output was booste...
Water Wars: 2026 Edition
Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and reports of shortages, debates on policy, and conflicts about ownership and usage pop up every few years with the reliability and sameness of Fa...
2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year
With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. That outlook suffered a bit of a shock following the January WASDE report, as USDA reiterated the large-supply narrative for U.S. and world gr...
GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye
GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess the text for its legality. Once that exercise is complete, Europe’s politicians promise plenty more hurdles to stymie agricultural impor...
China Market Analysis
Economy and Diet The decline in China’s population, with the birthrate falling 17 percent to its lowest since 1949, is likely having some impact on total food consumption. Slower-than-reported economic growth may also be a factor, as 2025 saw lower agricultural prices and fewer imports. M...
Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT
The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments. Futures were oversold based on short-term technical factors and, consequently, were ripe for a little bounce. The day’s news confirme...
China Market Analysis
Beef China’s new import safeguard on beef continues to stir the market. Its largest impact is on the biggest supplier of protein, Brazil. Suppliers in that country say they will have to reduce production and slaughter capacity. Meanwhile, Ireland is pleased that Beijing has lifted a ban t...
WASDE Corn - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre ris...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oi...
Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China
The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp pullback in crude oil prices was primarily responsible for the soy complex weakness as it eliminated a key piece of support for soyoil. In...