World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge

War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

More Tales from Export Sales

Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the volumes of export sales and shipments. The fact that such issues currently involve China, Mexico and Canada ensures that whatever happens in th...

UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers

UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines and faces tougher challenges ahead. There was little discussion about Title I commodity programs, and most of the debate involved committee...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course With the brief holiday concluded, the increased cost of soybeans and reduced crush output pushed soymeal inventories down last week. The estimated nationwide total fell 40,900 MT (-5.21 percent) to 785,100 MT as of 13 April, but that is up 158,600 MT (...

Safeguard and Security; Ugly Analysis; Trade Agreement Certainty

Safeguards and Security The Trump administration specifically asserted the “national security” rationale in applying duties to imported steel and aluminum because of its exception under WTO rules. However, China and now the EU as well as others are challenging that characterization...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese users at unfairly low prices, thus damaging China’s corn producers and others. The study found those import prices declined 13 percent bet...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans After the instability of two weeks ago, soybean trading around the world was steadier last week. Since the Chinese prime minister announced then that his country would apply 25 percent import duties on U.S. soybeans, there has been no further update. This allowed the soybean market to...

soy-oilseeds

U.S. Soybean Numbers Still Bearish

The U.S. soybean market has had a bearish fundamental outlook for well over a year. Record U.S. and Brazilian crops in 2017 pushed world supplies to record levels despite the consistent growing demand from China. Most market analysts expected soybean futures prices would drop to below $9.00/bus...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat was the big mover during the overnight session. Its direction was downward as weather models indicated that after another seven days of dry conditions, 19-21 April will offer a fair chance of moderate rain showers over parts of Kansas. Amounts are supposed to be heavy enough to cheer up w...

livestock feed-grains biofuel

Huge Day for Ag Policy

It was a huge day for agriculture policy in Washington today with three major developments: The House Agriculture Committee released the Chairman’s Mark draft of the 2018 Farm Bill. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) might be back on the negotiating table. President Trump is saying publ...

soy-oilseeds

Trade War Aid for Farmers

U.S. farmers rightly see themselves as being extremely vulnerable to repercussions from President Trump’s nationalistic “cut the balance of trade deficit no matter what” trade policies. Among other things, threats to withdraw from NAFTA could greatly shrink agricultural export...

Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge

War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

More Tales from Export Sales

Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the volumes of export sales and shipments. The fact that such issues currently involve China, Mexico and Canada ensures that whatever happens in th...

UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers

UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines and faces tougher challenges ahead. There was little discussion about Title I commodity programs, and most of the debate involved committee...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course With the brief holiday concluded, the increased cost of soybeans and reduced crush output pushed soymeal inventories down last week. The estimated nationwide total fell 40,900 MT (-5.21 percent) to 785,100 MT as of 13 April, but that is up 158,600 MT (...

Safeguard and Security; Ugly Analysis; Trade Agreement Certainty

Safeguards and Security The Trump administration specifically asserted the “national security” rationale in applying duties to imported steel and aluminum because of its exception under WTO rules. However, China and now the EU as well as others are challenging that characterization...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese users at unfairly low prices, thus damaging China’s corn producers and others. The study found those import prices declined 13 percent bet...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans After the instability of two weeks ago, soybean trading around the world was steadier last week. Since the Chinese prime minister announced then that his country would apply 25 percent import duties on U.S. soybeans, there has been no further update. This allowed the soybean market to...

soy-oilseeds

U.S. Soybean Numbers Still Bearish

The U.S. soybean market has had a bearish fundamental outlook for well over a year. Record U.S. and Brazilian crops in 2017 pushed world supplies to record levels despite the consistent growing demand from China. Most market analysts expected soybean futures prices would drop to below $9.00/bus...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat was the big mover during the overnight session. Its direction was downward as weather models indicated that after another seven days of dry conditions, 19-21 April will offer a fair chance of moderate rain showers over parts of Kansas. Amounts are supposed to be heavy enough to cheer up w...

livestock feed-grains biofuel

Huge Day for Ag Policy

It was a huge day for agriculture policy in Washington today with three major developments: The House Agriculture Committee released the Chairman’s Mark draft of the 2018 Farm Bill. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) might be back on the negotiating table. President Trump is saying publ...

soy-oilseeds

Trade War Aid for Farmers

U.S. farmers rightly see themselves as being extremely vulnerable to repercussions from President Trump’s nationalistic “cut the balance of trade deficit no matter what” trade policies. Among other things, threats to withdraw from NAFTA could greatly shrink agricultural export...

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