World Perspectives

Recent Asia Analysis

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is slightly firmer. The Russian 12.5 pro is offered at $200/MT FOB, which is about $2/MT higher than last Monday despite the weaker ruble. The EU exported 157,000 MT last week, bringing the cumulated total to 12.6 MMT versus 15.3 MMT at the same time last year...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 60 million from last month, reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil. Wit...

Addressing China’s Mercantilism; Rush to Work Less

Addressing China’s Mercantilism U.S. sorghum prices plummeted 25 percent on word that China has used imports of this commodity from the U.S. as a retaliation target for trade restrictions imposed by the Trump administration. It is likely to get worse before it gets better. There is debate...

Farm Bill Moolah; Competitive Future; Kill with Kindness?; N-Ozone

Farm Bill Moolah The farm bill is ready to begin moving in a few short weeks with the only holdup being the lack of money desired by congressional farm leaders to spend on cotton and dairy. Commodity support subsidies cost $13 billion more last year than originally forecast in 2014, partially o...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The overnight trading session for grains and the soy complex opened with the backdrop of the biggest single-day decline of the Dow ever. It was not the biggest percentage loss, however. World stock markets were also trading down very sharply with most global stock indices giving up all of their...

TPP Reality?; U.S.-China Trade War

TPP Reality? Aggies are trying to decipher the degree of seriousness behind President Trump’s announcement in Davos that he would reconsider joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On the one hand, most things that go into a presidential speech are well vetted and discussed. Treasury...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was stable last week with some movement in February and March shipments, which is where Chinese demand is showing up. There was also some interest for April onward, but the market is not that active for deferred positions. February traded at 157 and...

Action on RINs Reform and Tax Credit Key to Biodiesel Forecast

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), biodiesel production totaled 148 million gallons in November 2017, the same amount as in October and 5 million gallons more than in November 2016. Production during January-November 2017 totaled 1.447 billion gallons (101.5 percent...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has gained about $2.00. The FOB prices followed the rally of the U.S. and EU futures’ markets early in the week but not their later correction. The domestic market in Russia remained stable in rubles, and that currency weakened slightly against the USD d...

Trump Globalism; Auto Narcissism; Dual Quality Fight; Shutdown/Immigration

Trump Globalism U.S. President Donald Trump is repeatedly called a nationalist and a protectionist. Robert Manning at the Brent Scowcroft Center claims that his reversal on joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reflects a nationalist being mugged by global economic realities. The depictio...

soy-oilseeds softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximately 9.88 percent to 1.058 MMT versus 1.174 MMT in December 2016. They totaled 2.283 MMT for the two months of November and December 2017, down...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is slightly firmer. The Russian 12.5 pro is offered at $200/MT FOB, which is about $2/MT higher than last Monday despite the weaker ruble. The EU exported 157,000 MT last week, bringing the cumulated total to 12.6 MMT versus 15.3 MMT at the same time last year...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 60 million from last month, reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil. Wit...

Addressing China’s Mercantilism; Rush to Work Less

Addressing China’s Mercantilism U.S. sorghum prices plummeted 25 percent on word that China has used imports of this commodity from the U.S. as a retaliation target for trade restrictions imposed by the Trump administration. It is likely to get worse before it gets better. There is debate...

Farm Bill Moolah; Competitive Future; Kill with Kindness?; N-Ozone

Farm Bill Moolah The farm bill is ready to begin moving in a few short weeks with the only holdup being the lack of money desired by congressional farm leaders to spend on cotton and dairy. Commodity support subsidies cost $13 billion more last year than originally forecast in 2014, partially o...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The overnight trading session for grains and the soy complex opened with the backdrop of the biggest single-day decline of the Dow ever. It was not the biggest percentage loss, however. World stock markets were also trading down very sharply with most global stock indices giving up all of their...

TPP Reality?; U.S.-China Trade War

TPP Reality? Aggies are trying to decipher the degree of seriousness behind President Trump’s announcement in Davos that he would reconsider joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On the one hand, most things that go into a presidential speech are well vetted and discussed. Treasury...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was stable last week with some movement in February and March shipments, which is where Chinese demand is showing up. There was also some interest for April onward, but the market is not that active for deferred positions. February traded at 157 and...

Action on RINs Reform and Tax Credit Key to Biodiesel Forecast

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), biodiesel production totaled 148 million gallons in November 2017, the same amount as in October and 5 million gallons more than in November 2016. Production during January-November 2017 totaled 1.447 billion gallons (101.5 percent...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has gained about $2.00. The FOB prices followed the rally of the U.S. and EU futures’ markets early in the week but not their later correction. The domestic market in Russia remained stable in rubles, and that currency weakened slightly against the USD d...

Trump Globalism; Auto Narcissism; Dual Quality Fight; Shutdown/Immigration

Trump Globalism U.S. President Donald Trump is repeatedly called a nationalist and a protectionist. Robert Manning at the Brent Scowcroft Center claims that his reversal on joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reflects a nationalist being mugged by global economic realities. The depictio...

soy-oilseeds softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximately 9.88 percent to 1.058 MMT versus 1.174 MMT in December 2016. They totaled 2.283 MMT for the two months of November and December 2017, down...

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