USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bushels as the United States is expected to face strong competition. The result is that the projected 2025/26 ending stocks of U.S. wheat are 10 percent above last year at 923 million bushels, the highest level in six years. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is $5.30 per bushel, down $0.20 from last year on higher stocks. The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies and slightly higher stocks; Supplies...
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
Mexico Trade Deal The Trump Administration is looking for a win before the November midterm elections, now just five weeks away, especially as trade relations with Canada worsen and there is now a truce with China. The U.S. has made it clear to Mexican officials that it wants a deal with Mexico...
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.