Australia
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers
UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines and faces tougher challenges ahead. There was little discussion about Title I commodity programs, and most of the debate involved committee...
Barley Supplies Will Be Smallest in Over 25 Years
Market commentaries rarely discuss any crops other than corn, wheat or soybeans. This is because they have futures markets, and that means speculators. Another reason is that the production volumes of the minor crops are very small relative to the “big three.” These crops include ba...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers
UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines and faces tougher challenges ahead. There was little discussion about Title I commodity programs, and most of the debate involved committee...
Barley Supplies Will Be Smallest in Over 25 Years
Market commentaries rarely discuss any crops other than corn, wheat or soybeans. This is because they have futures markets, and that means speculators. Another reason is that the production volumes of the minor crops are very small relative to the “big three.” These crops include ba...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - primarily due to Morocco’s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stoc...
Asia
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
Pig in an R&D Poke; Regenerative Economics; Language Squeeze
Pig in an R&D Poke Various coalitions of U.S. agricultural research universities are lamenting that the House Agriculture Committee-approved farm bill failed to include increases in federal subsidies for their research. It is natural for these largely academic institutions to seek greater s...
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
Pig in an R&D Poke; Regenerative Economics; Language Squeeze
Pig in an R&D Poke Various coalitions of U.S. agricultural research universities are lamenting that the House Agriculture Committee-approved farm bill failed to include increases in federal subsidies for their research. It is natural for these largely academic institutions to seek greater s...
Abe-Trump Tête-à-Tête; Milk Shake
Abe-Trump Tête-à-Tête Donald Trump wants a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) with Japan, only rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a fallback position and if it includes “substantial improvements” over the one he exited. Meanwhile, Shinzö Abe d...
Black Sea
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 April 2018 The key factor influencing the Russian grain markets was the U.S. introduction of new sanctions on 6 April, which caused the ruble rate to drop significantly. Sellers immediately raised their offer prices, and bid prices also grew but at a slower rate. The...
Signs of Life for Black Sea Wheat Futures
The production of wheat as a cultivated food crop began before recorded history. It was almost certainly the first crop of any kind to be traded between different population groups, probably as a primitive exchange for tools, animal skins and the like. Wheat was also probably the first bulk agr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as offers for Russian 12.5 pro were difficult to find below $215/MT FOB. The Russia-U.S. tensions have pressured the ruble, which fell about 10 percent in one week. Consequently, domestic prices moved up sharply (in RUB expression), rising...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 April 2018 The key factor influencing the Russian grain markets was the U.S. introduction of new sanctions on 6 April, which caused the ruble rate to drop significantly. Sellers immediately raised their offer prices, and bid prices also grew but at a slower rate. The...
Signs of Life for Black Sea Wheat Futures
The production of wheat as a cultivated food crop began before recorded history. It was almost certainly the first crop of any kind to be traded between different population groups, probably as a primitive exchange for tools, animal skins and the like. Wheat was also probably the first bulk agr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as offers for Russian 12.5 pro were difficult to find below $215/MT FOB. The Russia-U.S. tensions have pressured the ruble, which fell about 10 percent in one week. Consequently, domestic prices moved up sharply (in RUB expression), rising...
U.S. Soybean Numbers Still Bearish
The U.S. soybean market has had a bearish fundamental outlook for well over a year. Record U.S. and Brazilian crops in 2017 pushed world supplies to record levels despite the consistent growing demand from China. Most market analysts expected soybean futures prices would drop to below $9.00/bus...
China
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
More Tales from Export Sales
Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the volumes of export sales and shipments. The fact that such issues currently involve China, Mexico and Canada ensures that whatever happens in th...
UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers
UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines and faces tougher challenges ahead. There was little discussion about Title I commodity programs, and most of the debate involved committee...
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
More Tales from Export Sales
Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the volumes of export sales and shipments. The fact that such issues currently involve China, Mexico and Canada ensures that whatever happens in th...
UnSNAPped and Prop 2; CRP Crossover; Sorghum Numbers
UnSNAPped and Prop 2 The U.S. House Agriculture Committee today approved H.R. 2, the Agriculture and Nutrition Act of 2018, but it passed along party lines and faces tougher challenges ahead. There was little discussion about Title I commodity programs, and most of the debate involved committee...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
Europe
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Safeguard and Security; Ugly Analysis; Trade Agreement Certainty
Safeguards and Security The Trump administration specifically asserted the “national security” rationale in applying duties to imported steel and aluminum because of its exception under WTO rules. However, China and now the EU as well as others are challenging that characterization...
Signs of Life for Black Sea Wheat Futures
The production of wheat as a cultivated food crop began before recorded history. It was almost certainly the first crop of any kind to be traded between different population groups, probably as a primitive exchange for tools, animal skins and the like. Wheat was also probably the first bulk agr...
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Safeguard and Security; Ugly Analysis; Trade Agreement Certainty
Safeguards and Security The Trump administration specifically asserted the “national security” rationale in applying duties to imported steel and aluminum because of its exception under WTO rules. However, China and now the EU as well as others are challenging that characterization...
Signs of Life for Black Sea Wheat Futures
The production of wheat as a cultivated food crop began before recorded history. It was almost certainly the first crop of any kind to be traded between different population groups, probably as a primitive exchange for tools, animal skins and the like. Wheat was also probably the first bulk agr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as offers for Russian 12.5 pro were difficult to find below $215/MT FOB. The Russia-U.S. tensions have pressured the ruble, which fell about 10 percent in one week. Consequently, domestic prices moved up sharply (in RUB expression), rising...
India
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; Indian Monsoon; Braziian Soy Production
NOPA’s March Soybean Crush a Record Monthly High Yesterday the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its monthly crush report for March. It indicated 171.858 million bushels (4.68 MMT) of soybeans were crushed, up 18.8 million bushels (10.9 percent) from March 2017 and t...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, which is ready for harvest. In those areas where harvesting has begun, the stock arrivals at market yards have been similarly impacted by rainf...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; Indian Monsoon; Braziian Soy Production
NOPA’s March Soybean Crush a Record Monthly High Yesterday the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its monthly crush report for March. It indicated 171.858 million bushels (4.68 MMT) of soybeans were crushed, up 18.8 million bushels (10.9 percent) from March 2017 and t...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, which is ready for harvest. In those areas where harvesting has begun, the stock arrivals at market yards have been similarly impacted by rainf...
Senator Chamberlain; Catharsis and Anecdote; Go India!
Senator Chamberlain The Trump administration proposes to compensate American farmers for any adverse fallout from its efforts to secure greater trading rights abroad. With the courage of a multi-decade member of Congress, U.S. Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), chairman of the Senate Agriculture C...
Middle East & Africa
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE/EASTMEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government has set its purchase price for local wheat, and the highest quality is fixed at $212-215/MT. While this is above the level of last year and reportedly based on an average of the international prices paid by Egypt in rece...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Sales and Shipments; WASDE Report
Soybean Exporters Realigning Sales/Shipments Due to Possible Chinese Tariff China’s announcement that it will impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans if the U.S. applies a similar tariff on imports from that country has caused soybean importers and exporters to quickly realign sales a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS North African buyers of French wheat are finding that their shipments are delayed because of railway strikes in France that have created a logistics problem in moving grain. This has been further compounded by a sudden port worker strike in Rou...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE/EASTMEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government has set its purchase price for local wheat, and the highest quality is fixed at $212-215/MT. While this is above the level of last year and reportedly based on an average of the international prices paid by Egypt in rece...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Sales and Shipments; WASDE Report
Soybean Exporters Realigning Sales/Shipments Due to Possible Chinese Tariff China’s announcement that it will impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans if the U.S. applies a similar tariff on imports from that country has caused soybean importers and exporters to quickly realign sales a...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS North African buyers of French wheat are finding that their shipments are delayed because of railway strikes in France that have created a logistics problem in moving grain. This has been further compounded by a sudden port worker strike in Rou...
Trade War Adjustments; Imports Too!
Trade War Adjustments Back in 1973, the U.S. imposed a soybean export embargo and then export licensing requirements due to short supply concerns. The result was the birth of the Brazilian soybean industry as Japan sought to diversify its suppliers and began investments in South America. Now ma...
North America
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is looking much better across the U.S. than a week ago. It will be warmer and drier, and that means farmers will get the planters rolling. A later...
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is looking much better across the U.S. than a week ago. It will be warmer and drier, and that means farmers will get the planters rolling. A later...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
South America
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
More Tales from Export Sales
Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the volumes of export sales and shipments. The fact that such issues currently involve China, Mexico and Canada ensures that whatever happens in th...
Russia
Market Commentary
Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, though, and that held corn down as well. Last Friday night’s military action in Syria had no apparent effect on either U.S. commodity mar...
Market Commentary
Markets all started easier Thursday evening and finished the night session mixed with corn down less than a penny, soybeans up 1-2 cents, KC and Chicago wheat down 6-7 cents, and Minneapolis wheat 1-2 cents lower. This pattern didn’t change throughout today’s session except for soyb...
Trade War Aid for Farmers
U.S. farmers rightly see themselves as being extremely vulnerable to repercussions from President Trump’s nationalistic “cut the balance of trade deficit no matter what” trade policies. Among other things, threats to withdraw from NAFTA could greatly shrink agricultural export...
Market Commentary
Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, though, and that held corn down as well. Last Friday night’s military action in Syria had no apparent effect on either U.S. commodity mar...
Market Commentary
Markets all started easier Thursday evening and finished the night session mixed with corn down less than a penny, soybeans up 1-2 cents, KC and Chicago wheat down 6-7 cents, and Minneapolis wheat 1-2 cents lower. This pattern didn’t change throughout today’s session except for soyb...
Trade War Aid for Farmers
U.S. farmers rightly see themselves as being extremely vulnerable to repercussions from President Trump’s nationalistic “cut the balance of trade deficit no matter what” trade policies. Among other things, threats to withdraw from NAFTA could greatly shrink agricultural export...
Market Commentary
A war of words between the U.S. and Russia over a possible U.S. missile strike against the Syrian regime, intended as a response to its purported gas attack on civilians, is raising geopolitical tensions. Yesterday’s calming conciliatory remarks on trade from Chinese President Xi have pro...