Australia
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is unchanged for exports and slightly higher ending stocks to 931 million bushels - 9 percent higher than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel. The global outlook fo...
New Trade Agreements
Just as Donald Trump’s dismantling of the world order is said to have motivated Europe’s conclusion of trade agreements with Mercosur and India, his trade agreements with India and Argentina are thought to have been motivated by Europe’s trade moves. A novel question: who is f...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is unchanged for exports and slightly higher ending stocks to 931 million bushels - 9 percent higher than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel. The global outlook fo...
New Trade Agreements
Just as Donald Trump’s dismantling of the world order is said to have motivated Europe’s conclusion of trade agreements with Mercosur and India, his trade agreements with India and Argentina are thought to have been motivated by Europe’s trade moves. A novel question: who is f...
WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026
USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90. The wo...
WASDE Wheat - Dec 2025
USDA’s Dec 2025 estimate is that the 2025/26 season-average wheat price received by U.S. farmers will remain at $5.00 per bushel. Global wheat stocks rose 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries...
Asia
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
Black Sea
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 February 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market showed localized volatility across interior regions but remained generally stable at export terminals, the country’s primary trading platform. Among commodities, top-grade milling wheat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 February 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market showed localized volatility across interior regions but remained generally stable at export terminals, the country’s primary trading platform. Among commodities, top-grade milling wheat...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
China
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Hogs and Pork Outlook
The recent volatility in lean hog futures — from fresh contract highs at the end of January to the dramatic early-February selloff — has many in the industry (and WPI clients) wondering what will happen next. WPI’s latest analysis indicates that while pork demand remains stron...
Europe
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest crop update from the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring division reported “broadly satisfactory” conditions across much of the bloc through February. Persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe is a concern for the winter crops, pa...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The latest crop update from the EU Commission’s MARS crop monitoring division reported “broadly satisfactory” conditions across much of the bloc through February. Persistent frost in parts of northern and eastern Europe is a concern for the winter crops, pa...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
India
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. As a result, the season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53 cents per pound. Global 2025/26 soybean endin...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
WASDE Soybeans - Feb 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. As a result, the season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $295 per short ton and 53 cents per pound. Global 2025/26 soybean endin...
Rock, Paper, Scissors
Markets still do not know how to react to President Trump’s announcement that he has completed a trade deal with India. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the details are being papered, or written up, now. The deal has sparked a transatlantic war of words, with Brussels mocking...
India’s Catbird Seat; Targeting Cuba; Good and Bad GMOs
India’s Catbird Seat China is a state-run economy with formidable output, utilizing abundant, lower-cost labor. India is a democracy with a massive low-cost labor pool and countless restrictions on imports. The EU and now the U.S. have completed very different trade agreements with India,...
Markets Not Government; Fueling and Building Cars; Middle Power Potential; EU Mimics China
Markets Not Government A common refrain from U.S. agriculture groups is that they prefer to get their income from the market than the government. Most of their income is derived from the market but it looks more romantic than real when one considers that government supplements determine the bre...
Middle East & Africa
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s flour exports in 2025, at 2.36 MMT, were back up close to 2019 levels but well below the five-year average of close to 3.0 MMT. Exports were low due to drought and Turkey’s export restrictions. Shipments of fl...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Turkey’s flour exports in 2025, at 2.36 MMT, were back up close to 2019 levels but well below the five-year average of close to 3.0 MMT. Exports were low due to drought and Turkey’s export restrictions. Shipments of fl...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
North America
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 20-26, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 348,900 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 24 percent fro...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.535/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.8375/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.7925/bushel, up $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $0.6 f...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for February 20-26, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 203,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 16 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 348,900 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 24 percent fro...
Livestock Round Up: Preview of Feedlot Placements and Changing Canada Dynamics
Feeder cattle sales were up over a year ago in February, but much of that was due to February 2025 sales being light. Still, the increase in activity bears watching, both for what it implies about feedlot placements and for herd rebuilding. In the four weeks ending February 27, total feed...
South America
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 4 March)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “How To”...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
Transportation and Export Report - 26 February
The start of 2026 has been the exact opposite of what dry bulk markets and traders expected at the end of 2025. Typically, the Lunar New Year and post-holiday demand lulls mean that Q1 freight rates are often the weakest of the year. This year, however, rates rallied sharply on unexpected deman...
Russia
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 February 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market showed localized volatility across interior regions but remained generally stable at export terminals, the country’s primary trading platform. Among commodities, top-grade milling wheat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23–27 February 2026 The Russian grain market turned bearish during the final week of February as global trends and heavy domestic stocks pressured values across most regions. According to updated 2025 crop data from Rosstat, total grain production reached 141.15 mil...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16–20 February 2026 During the week under review, the Russian grain market showed localized volatility across interior regions but remained generally stable at export terminals, the country’s primary trading platform. Among commodities, top-grade milling wheat...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 February 2026 The feature of the second week of February was appreciation of prices on the export platform, meaning regions in close proximity to seaports showed higher prices across all grains, including wheat, barley, corn and even peas. This is somewhat para...