World Perspectives

Recent World Analysis

Australia

livestock

Aussie Beef; U.S. Cattle; Moratorium on Iowa Livestock Sought

Aussie Beef Back on the Global Market Australia’s beef exports are making a comeback, up 19.7 percent last month over January 2017, and they could be back on trend to match a more normal five-year average. All five of Australia’s top markets imported more beef in January than a year...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export forecasts for several major competitors are increased. Estimated food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 955 million, based on the NASS Fl...

livestock

Aussie Beef; U.S. Cattle; Moratorium on Iowa Livestock Sought

Aussie Beef Back on the Global Market Australia’s beef exports are making a comeback, up 19.7 percent last month over January 2017, and they could be back on trend to match a more normal five-year average. All five of Australia’s top markets imported more beef in January than a year...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export forecasts for several major competitors are increased. Estimated food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 955 million, based on the NASS Fl...

TPP Reality?; U.S.-China Trade War

TPP Reality? Aggies are trying to decipher the degree of seriousness behind President Trump’s announcement in Davos that he would reconsider joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On the one hand, most things that go into a presidential speech are well vetted and discussed. Treasury...

Asia

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is slightly firmer. The Russian 12.5 pro is offered at $200/MT FOB, which is about $2/MT higher than last Monday despite the weaker ruble. The EU exported 157,000 MT last week, bringing the cumulated total to 12.6 MMT versus 15.3 MMT at the same time last year...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 60 million from last month, reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil. Wit...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is slightly firmer. The Russian 12.5 pro is offered at $200/MT FOB, which is about $2/MT higher than last Monday despite the weaker ruble. The EU exported 157,000 MT last week, bringing the cumulated total to 12.6 MMT versus 15.3 MMT at the same time last year...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 60 million from last month, reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil. Wit...

Addressing China’s Mercantilism; Rush to Work Less

Addressing China’s Mercantilism U.S. sorghum prices plummeted 25 percent on word that China has used imports of this commodity from the U.S. as a retaliation target for trade restrictions imposed by the Trump administration. It is likely to get worse before it gets better. There is debate...

Black Sea

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 February 2018 A moderate upward trend continued in the domestic grain market (in RUB expression) due to growing export prices and the weakening ruble. On the export market, milling wheat prices rose to $199/MT FOB Black Sea (+$1/MT) with purchase prices up slightly at...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in bulk vessel, reportedly for shipment to Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh with additional sales to Asian destinations. According to the lates...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5-9 February 2018 A moderate upward trend continued in the domestic grain market (in RUB expression) due to growing export prices and the weakening ruble. On the export market, milling wheat prices rose to $199/MT FOB Black Sea (+$1/MT) with purchase prices up slightly at...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in bulk vessel, reportedly for shipment to Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh with additional sales to Asian destinations. According to the lates...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is slightly firmer. The Russian 12.5 pro is offered at $200/MT FOB, which is about $2/MT higher than last Monday despite the weaker ruble. The EU exported 157,000 MT last week, bringing the cumulated total to 12.6 MMT versus 15.3 MMT at the same time last year...

China

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets

Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant proteins are now labeling their own products as “clean meat,” implying the same product at its base but qualitatively better. Prote...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets

Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant proteins are now labeling their own products as “clean meat,” implying the same product at its base but qualitatively better. Prote...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course and Falls Below 1 MMT Pre-Lunar New Year holiday demand pushed wholesale soymeal prices slightly higher as of 2 February 2018 and also helped send the nationwide inventory back below the 1 MMT threshold to 934,900 MT, a 116,800 MT (-11.1 percent) drop...

Europe

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...

Origin Labeling Loser; War of Words; Taxes and Budgets

Origin Labeling Loser The U.S. beef industry feels embattled. After years of contending with health risk warnings about its product, marketers of plant proteins are now labeling their own products as “clean meat,” implying the same product at its base but qualitatively better. Prote...

India

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious

Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was found that these imports are undermining national security and should be subject to both tariffs and quotas. The U.S. can assert a national se...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious

Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was found that these imports are undermining national security and should be subject to both tariffs and quotas. The U.S. can assert a national se...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in bulk vessel, reportedly for shipment to Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh with additional sales to Asian destinations. According to the lates...

Middle East & Africa

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in bulk vessel, reportedly for shipment to Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh with additional sales to Asian destinations. According to the lates...

North America

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious

Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was found that these imports are undermining national security and should be subject to both tariffs and quotas. The U.S. can assert a national se...

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

Undermining 232 Rationale; Trump View Vindicated; MAAlicious

Undermining 232 Rationale The U.S. Commerce Department announced the results of its Section 232 investigation into imports of aluminum and steel. It was found that these imports are undermining national security and should be subject to both tariffs and quotas. The U.S. can assert a national se...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...

South America

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly overnight with prices holding mostly steady to mildly firmer. However, prices for soybeans and wheat began to tick higher soon after trading resumed for the day session. Support was offered by agreement among all three major weather models that the so...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil After very strong movement two weeks ago, last week was very quiet in general. The previously discussed Carnival holiday (see Ag Perspectives, 12 February) occurred on Monday and Tuesday, and the seven-day Chinese New Year began on Wednesday. As a result, there has been no futur...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets traded rather quietly overnight with prices holding mostly steady to mildly firmer. However, prices for soybeans and wheat began to tick higher soon after trading resumed for the day session. Support was offered by agreement among all three major weather models that the so...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Fundamental Winds of Change

USDA made several changes a week ago to its supply/demand estimates for the U.S. and the world that were unusual for a February WASDE. With South American harvests just underway at this time and Northern Hemisphere supplies/demand patterns/trade flows well in place, revisions made in February W...

Russia

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Fundamental Winds of Change

USDA made several changes a week ago to its supply/demand estimates for the U.S. and the world that were unusual for a February WASDE. With South American harvests just underway at this time and Northern Hemisphere supplies/demand patterns/trade flows well in place, revisions made in February W...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note that U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. A three-day weekend in the middle of a weather market tends to make traders a bit nervous because of the potential for significant changes in the forecasts. Volume today was just slightly better than average, and marke...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Fundamental Winds of Change

USDA made several changes a week ago to its supply/demand estimates for the U.S. and the world that were unusual for a February WASDE. With South American harvests just underway at this time and Northern Hemisphere supplies/demand patterns/trade flows well in place, revisions made in February W...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

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