Australia
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat - USDA’s April 2025 estimates are for increased U.S. wheat imports by 10 million bushels to 150 million - the largest since 2017/18. Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use. U.S. wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million. As a r...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
WASDE Wheat - Feb 2025
USDA made a small reduction in ending stocks of U.S. wheat by 4 million bushels to 794 million but are 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.55 per bushel. The projection for global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 was lowered 1.3 million tons to 257.6 mill...
Asia
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 9 May)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 9 May 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets saw little action this past week with China on a 5-day Labor Day holiday. Between the Chinese holiday, uncertainty on the global economic outlook for the next 6 months, cargo deman...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 9 May)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 9 May 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets saw little action this past week with China on a 5-day Labor Day holiday. Between the Chinese holiday, uncertainty on the global economic outlook for the next 6 months, cargo deman...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Black Sea
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to reach 83.8 MMT. They attribute the upgrade to rains in the wheat belt of Russia during the first 10 days of May. As a result, they also revis...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to reach 83.8 MMT. They attribute the upgrade to rains in the wheat belt of Russia during the first 10 days of May. As a result, they also revis...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Corn - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies and total use: Higher ending stocks are expected to result from 15.8 billion bushels of corn production, up 6 percent from a year ago. Projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade. The corn y...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
China
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Oilseed Highlights: RVO Rumors Sink Soyoil; Sesame Demand Slows
The Market There were four big “stories” for oilseeds markets to follow this past week: the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the May WASDE report, news that the U.S. Congress may be planning to extend the 45Z tax credits, and Thursday’s rumors that the EPA may be undercutt...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Europe
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather for the UK and northern Europe remains a major concern for crops. The UK is currently experiencing its driest year of the 21st century while western and northern Europe are slated for more dry conditions over the next two weeks. The EU model now favors more rain...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
European Market Analysis
Regional News The weather for the UK and northern Europe remains a major concern for crops. The UK is currently experiencing its driest year of the 21st century while western and northern Europe are slated for more dry conditions over the next two weeks. The EU model now favors more rain...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Phase II Deal; EU Strategy; Mimicking EU
Phase II Deal U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that a phase-one deal may be a model for trade talks with China. It may be the only model that would help U.S. farmers. Brazil still has a price edge on soybeans, and even a 10 percent tariff is enough to price out U.S. commodities...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
India
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is for lower ending stocks: The U.S. share of global soybean exports is forecast at 26 percent - down from 28 percent last year. Accordingly, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bushels, down 35 million from 2024/25. The 2025/26 U.S...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans - USDA’s April 2025 estimates increase U.S. soybeans oil exports by 500 million pounds due to strong export commitments. U.S. soybean exports are unchanged and imports increased slightly – resulting in a 5 million bushel decrease in ending stocks to 375 million. The U.S. se...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimates for the U.S. 2024/25 season are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The price estimates for meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Middle East & Africa
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is expected to have a record maize crop in 2025 due to increases in planting maize versus wheat or rice. Total maize planting area is up by close to 7 percent which could see the maize crop reach a record of 5.1 MMT &nd...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 9 May)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 9 May 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets saw little action this past week with China on a 5-day Labor Day holiday. Between the Chinese holiday, uncertainty on the global economic outlook for the next 6 months, cargo deman...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Bangladesh is expected to have a record maize crop in 2025 due to increases in planting maize versus wheat or rice. Total maize planting area is up by close to 7 percent which could see the maize crop reach a record of 5.1 MMT &nd...
WASDE Wheat - May 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for supplies to be up 2 percent from 2024/25 as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production. The average wheat yield is projected at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from last year. Exports are projected lower at 800 million bush...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 9 May)
Transportation and Freight Market Comments - 9 May 2025 By Matt Herrington Dry-Bulk Ocean Freight Dry bulk markets saw little action this past week with China on a 5-day Labor Day holiday. Between the Chinese holiday, uncertainty on the global economic outlook for the next 6 months, cargo deman...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran’s 2025 wheat production is being hurt by very dry weather. Rainfall up to February 2025 was much below average but did improve in March. However, Iran does have reasonable wheat stocks due to the good 2024 crop and whea...
North America
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by Memorial Day. The President told House Republicans today that they should not cut Medicaid, and they should not raise the cap on deducting st...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.545/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.17 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.53/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $292.6/short ton, up $1.5 from yeste...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Corn Rally on Weather Worries; Cattle Consolidate but Beef Rallies
The CBOT turned higher on Tuesday with wheat leading the way. Wheat turned higher overnight and started the broader CBOT rally as traders are increasingly concerned about the Black Sea weather, and, to a lesser extent, the EU and U.S. forecasts as well. Too, wheat saw more action as it is where...
Crunch Time; Miscellaneous
Crunch Time The “Big Beautiful Bill” providing the tax cut extensions sought by President Trump is supposed to be passed by the U.S. House by Memorial Day. The President told House Republicans today that they should not cut Medicaid, and they should not raise the cap on deducting st...
Red Meat Exports
In Q1, U.S. pork exports to Mexico grew by 11 percent year-over-year according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). That’s despite U.S. exports hitting a record $2.6 billion in 2024. According to USMEF, pork consumption in the country has increased more than 50 percent over the las...
South America
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Market Commentary: Short Covering, Weather, Exports, and Weak Dollar Lift CBOT
The CBOT turned higher to start the week with wheat, corn, soybeans, and soy oil, all finding their way to higher ground amid a mix of factors. The big news for the day was Moody’s weekend downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, from “triple-A” to “double-A”. That new...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Farmers remain focused on the soybean harvest at the expense of executing fieldwork for corn. With favorable weather over the past few days, 20 percent of the soybean area has been harvested. As a result, corn harvest progress was limited, with only a 2.4 percentage point weekl...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger
The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...
Market Commentary: Corrections from Oversold/Overbought, Big Crops, Facts and Rumors
There was again a lot to unpack in today’s trade action, and not all of it was pretty. Big Crops: There is no getting around the fact that favorable weather for the most part is leading to big crops. Conab raised its soybean estimate to 169 MMT, now just 1 MMT below USDA. The Wheat Qualit...
Russia
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to reach 83.8 MMT. They attribute the upgrade to rains in the wheat belt of Russia during the first 10 days of May. As a result, they also revis...
Policy Quick Hits
The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...
Wheat Problem Areas
As noted yesterday, global wheat consumption has been growing faster than the expansion in production. Sometimes it takes non-agricultural researchers to look at an issue in a different way. Petroleum engineers at the Colorado School of Mines studied global areas where the loss of sub-surface s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5 – 9 May 2025 Crop Outlook 2025 Russian analysts from IKRAR increased the wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.3 MMT to reach 83.8 MMT. They attribute the upgrade to rains in the wheat belt of Russia during the first 10 days of May. As a result, they also revis...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 April – 2 May 2025 Russian audit, corporate finance, and consultancy company BEFL published a rating of Russia’s largest megafarms which included 75 companies – half the number registered a year ago. This is telling us that large farms are becom...