WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion
WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...
Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms
Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...
European Revival; The Worm Turns
European Revival The transatlantic relationship is rapidly evolving and the story is told by some recent headlines… The U.S. has already swamped Europe with its technology and now it wants to own the EU’s energy market as well. European diplomats in Washington message the Tr...
Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Early Details
The USDA will base the $12 billion in farmer payments it recently announced under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program on 2025 planted acreage. The department announced that acreage reports, as of 19 December, by 5 p.m., should be “accurate.” Payment rates will be announced th...
Trade Deficit Shrinks, Fed Cuts Federal Funds Rate at December
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020. The decline in the deficit was due to a large increase in exports, which rose $8.4 billion. Imports were up a more modest $1.9 billion. The President may see this as a win, as the cor...
No Trade Bailout; Statements Betray USMCA
No Trade Bailout The Trump Administration’s $12 billion economic assistance package to farmers is being framed by the media as a “bailout” for the adverse impact of the President’s tariffs and trade wars. But there is no adverse impact in most instances. Wheat prices hav...
China Market Analysis
Moving the Goal Posts China is a critical demand driver for U.S. soybean farmers and they rallied when the White House announced on Halloween that China had committed to buying 12 MMT of soybeans by year’s end, and then 25 MMT over the coming three years. There were ample skeptics at the...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as highlighted by Mexico’s retraction of its proposal to ban GMO corn, and main line U.S. agricultural groups lined up last week at the US...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...
WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion
WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligations under the WTO but the signal was clear that the U.S. would no longer be constrained by any agreements at the WTO. Still, the Administratio...
Europe; Greening; AI; Ice Cream; UPFs; Algorithms
Europe Pivot Point EU leaders will hold a very pivotal meeting tomorrow covering a range of issues including the use of Russian assets and security guarantees for Ukraine, and a trade agreement with Mercosur. More importantly, their reputations are at risk. President Trump predicts Europe&rsquo...
European Revival; The Worm Turns
European Revival The transatlantic relationship is rapidly evolving and the story is told by some recent headlines… The U.S. has already swamped Europe with its technology and now it wants to own the EU’s energy market as well. European diplomats in Washington message the Tr...
Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Early Details
The USDA will base the $12 billion in farmer payments it recently announced under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program on 2025 planted acreage. The department announced that acreage reports, as of 19 December, by 5 p.m., should be “accurate.” Payment rates will be announced th...
Trade Deficit Shrinks, Fed Cuts Federal Funds Rate at December
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020. The decline in the deficit was due to a large increase in exports, which rose $8.4 billion. Imports were up a more modest $1.9 billion. The President may see this as a win, as the cor...
No Trade Bailout; Statements Betray USMCA
No Trade Bailout The Trump Administration’s $12 billion economic assistance package to farmers is being framed by the media as a “bailout” for the adverse impact of the President’s tariffs and trade wars. But there is no adverse impact in most instances. Wheat prices hav...
China Market Analysis
Moving the Goal Posts China is a critical demand driver for U.S. soybean farmers and they rallied when the White House announced on Halloween that China had committed to buying 12 MMT of soybeans by year’s end, and then 25 MMT over the coming three years. There were ample skeptics at the...
Trump Announces Farm Bailout
President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs. The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...
Federal Reserve Meeting and Hearing This Week
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Wednesday to decide what to do about short-term interest rates. The Federal Funds Futures market puts the chance of a rate cut at about 90 percent following cuts in September and October. That meeting will also be when the Fed publishes a ne...
One Sided Equation; Then and Now
One Sided Equation Canada and Mexico are America’s largest trading partners. U.S. exports of row crop commodities have benefited from the USMCA, as highlighted by Mexico’s retraction of its proposal to ban GMO corn, and main line U.S. agricultural groups lined up last week at the US...
USMCA Review Underway
U.S. trade officials have started the formal review process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), inviting public comment ahead of next year's renegotiation of the pact. Under the process, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will eventually be required to provide reports...
Waste Energy; Selective Protectionism
Waste Energy The cudgel held over agriculture-based feedstocks has typically been indirect land use. The U.S. biofuel industry is currently battling with California regulators over its calculation. Works in Progress editor Samuel Hughes identifies land use restrictions as newly common across al...