EPA Grants 29 SREs, but Reallocation is the Story
Key Takeaways: EPA granted full or partial Small Refinery Exemptions to 29 of the 34 petitions under consideration, removing approximately 1.76 billion RINs from 2025 compliance obligations, roughly 770 million more RINs than EPA had previously anticipated. The larger exemption total does not...
Readout on the Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
The Federal Reserve Board holds an annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, each year about this time, and this year’s meeting is now. It’s always a “must-watch” event, but this year, amidst persistent inflation and with a new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, it drew additiona...
An Exploration of the Colorado River and Its Many Legal and Economic Canyons
You cannot escape the vortex of opinions about water scarcity in the Western United States, especially in the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin. Agriculture is the villain in many of these editorials. Agriculture uses too much water, so it should use less, is the refrain. We all wish it was...
Why U.S. Lamb Prices Are Import-Anchored and Why Carcass Divergence Matters
Key Takeaways: Imports supply 70–75 percent of U.S. lamb disappearance, with Australia and New Zealand accounting for nearly all imported volume. The deficit is structural, not cyclical: domestic production cannot scale quickly enough to displace imports or reset the market’s refer...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Canada Imposes Retaliatory Tariffs
Today, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on 700 products exported from the U.S., aiming to match “dollar for dollar” the duties imposed on Canada. They will take effect on 8 September (see the complete list here). 50 percent tariffs: steel, aluminum, furniture, clothing, video g...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
President Trump Announces Move on Over Quota Beef Tariffs - Again
On Friday, at 6:57 AM, President Donald Trump announced, via a social media post, a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas—a move aimed at bringing down costs for American consumers. This is the secon...
How Much for That Bushel of Credibility?
In agriculture and food processing, we think a lot about infrastructure: transportation and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and delivery. It is a physical system of roads, railroads, and rivers; concrete and steel storage; processing plants, warehouses, and machinery; and, event...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Fertilizer’s Bullish Outlook for 2027
Unlike the 2022 fertilizer shock, today’s disruption is rooted less in rerouted trade flows and more in damaged production capacity, raw material constraints and uncertain recovery timelines. That makes this a longer-duration risk for U.S. agricultural producers and retailers who must sec...
Beef Capacity Disappearing
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...
EPA Grants 29 SREs, but Reallocation is the Story
Key Takeaways: EPA granted full or partial Small Refinery Exemptions to 29 of the 34 petitions under consideration, removing approximately 1.76 billion RINs from 2025 compliance obligations, roughly 770 million more RINs than EPA had previously anticipated. The larger exemption total does not...
Readout on the Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
The Federal Reserve Board holds an annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, each year about this time, and this year’s meeting is now. It’s always a “must-watch” event, but this year, amidst persistent inflation and with a new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, it drew additiona...
An Exploration of the Colorado River and Its Many Legal and Economic Canyons
You cannot escape the vortex of opinions about water scarcity in the Western United States, especially in the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin. Agriculture is the villain in many of these editorials. Agriculture uses too much water, so it should use less, is the refrain. We all wish it was...
Why U.S. Lamb Prices Are Import-Anchored and Why Carcass Divergence Matters
Key Takeaways: Imports supply 70–75 percent of U.S. lamb disappearance, with Australia and New Zealand accounting for nearly all imported volume. The deficit is structural, not cyclical: domestic production cannot scale quickly enough to displace imports or reset the market’s refer...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
Canada Imposes Retaliatory Tariffs
Today, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on 700 products exported from the U.S., aiming to match “dollar for dollar” the duties imposed on Canada. They will take effect on 8 September (see the complete list here). 50 percent tariffs: steel, aluminum, furniture, clothing, video g...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
President Trump Announces Move on Over Quota Beef Tariffs - Again
On Friday, at 6:57 AM, President Donald Trump announced, via a social media post, a 90-day window during which up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef could be imported outside of tariff-rate quotas—a move aimed at bringing down costs for American consumers. This is the secon...
How Much for That Bushel of Credibility?
In agriculture and food processing, we think a lot about infrastructure: transportation and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and delivery. It is a physical system of roads, railroads, and rivers; concrete and steel storage; processing plants, warehouses, and machinery; and, event...
USMCA 11th Hour and New Tariffs for Canada Not Over
Based on a Depression-era statute, President Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of exports to the U.S., or about 5.2 percent of the $383 billion worth of goods the U.S. imported from Canada in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Of that total, about $39.3 billion was agricu...
Fertilizer’s Bullish Outlook for 2027
Unlike the 2022 fertilizer shock, today’s disruption is rooted less in rerouted trade flows and more in damaged production capacity, raw material constraints and uncertain recovery timelines. That makes this a longer-duration risk for U.S. agricultural producers and retailers who must sec...
Beef Capacity Disappearing
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...