Iran War Impacts; Trade Agreements
Iran War Impacts Confidence in the economy is often tied to partisan politics, with Democrats seeing green when they control the White House, and Republicans ready to invest when their party is in charge. War always creates uncertainty, but uncertainty does not determine the market. A famous gr...
China Market Analysis
Balanced Trade Bilateral trade in both directions between the U.S. and China has slowed, but Chinese Premier Li Qiang told last week’s meeting of the China Development Forum 2026 that Beijing pledges balanced trade and greater openness. His country is seeking to reassure foreign investors...
Thune Introduces Fertilizer Price Reporting Bill
The war in Iran has brought the four-year simmering focus on fertilizer prices to a quick boil. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) introduced the Fertilizer Transparency Act, cosponsored by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsi...
WTO Realism; Reindustrialization; Canadian Ego
WTO Realism The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins later this week, and while some have high hopes, pragmatists understand the elongated nature of consensus-based multinational policy development. EU trade minister Maroš Šefčovič expresses the hopes of his constituents...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Great Timing; Farm Skeptics; War’s Impact; Thursday’s Tumults
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...
China Market Analysis
Bilateral Postponement The upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is being delayed about “a month or so” at the request of Trump. He says he needs the time to focus on the war in Iran. Chinese leaders may also benefit from the extra time to assess the...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Iran War Impacts; Trade Agreements
Iran War Impacts Confidence in the economy is often tied to partisan politics, with Democrats seeing green when they control the White House, and Republicans ready to invest when their party is in charge. War always creates uncertainty, but uncertainty does not determine the market. A famous gr...
China Market Analysis
Balanced Trade Bilateral trade in both directions between the U.S. and China has slowed, but Chinese Premier Li Qiang told last week’s meeting of the China Development Forum 2026 that Beijing pledges balanced trade and greater openness. His country is seeking to reassure foreign investors...
Thune Introduces Fertilizer Price Reporting Bill
The war in Iran has brought the four-year simmering focus on fertilizer prices to a quick boil. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) introduced the Fertilizer Transparency Act, cosponsored by Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsi...
WTO Realism; Reindustrialization; Canadian Ego
WTO Realism The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins later this week, and while some have high hopes, pragmatists understand the elongated nature of consensus-based multinational policy development. EU trade minister Maroš Šefčovič expresses the hopes of his constituents...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Great Timing; Farm Skeptics; War’s Impact; Thursday’s Tumults
Great Timing The workers’ union at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley, Colorado, is on strike. The union is demanding more pay for its members, of course, and they want the company to pay for gloves. Given the shortage of cattle, there is overcapacity in cattle slaughter, and JBS has be...
China Market Analysis
Bilateral Postponement The upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is being delayed about “a month or so” at the request of Trump. He says he needs the time to focus on the war in Iran. Chinese leaders may also benefit from the extra time to assess the...
China Ag Purchases; Tariffs and More
China Ag Purchases The market reacted today to suggestions that President Trump will delay his planned trip to China at the end of the month due to the war in Iran. The excuse is somewhat of a surprise considering this President is usually hyper-multitasking. Soybean investors took it hard, but...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
New, Old Approach; Scale Assault; Bumpy Road
New, Old Approach Having had its broad IEEPA approach to applying global tariffs shot down by the High Court, USTR announced yesterday that it is launching Section 301 investigations against 16 countries for unfair trading practices. Unlike IEEPA, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 has a long...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...