Feed Grains
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is looking much better across the U.S. than a week ago. It will be warmer and drier, and that means farmers will get the planters rolling. A later...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is looking much better across the U.S. than a week ago. It will be warmer and drier, and that means farmers will get the planters rolling. A later...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...
Soy & Oilseeds
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is looking much better across the U.S. than a week ago. It will be warmer and drier, and that means farmers will get the planters rolling. A later...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is looking much better across the U.S. than a week ago. It will be warmer and drier, and that means farmers will get the planters rolling. A later...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...
Wheat
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is looking much better across the U.S. than a week ago. It will be warmer and drier, and that means farmers will get the planters rolling. A later...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and that trend continued into the day session. One word that described today’s market action was weather, which is looking much better across the U.S. than a week ago. It will be warmer and drier, and that means farmers will get the planters rolling. A later...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
Livestock
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on April 1, 2018. The inventory was 7 percent above April 1, 2017 – and that is the second highest April 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.92 million hea...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Closing Futures Prices
WPI provides a summary of the week’s futures price activity and the gains/losses experienced by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today’s data from the CFTC points to changing views among managed money funds. Meanwhile, commercial traders’ positions are evol...
Cattle on Feed
Cattle on Feed in U.S. feedlots of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on April 1, 2018. The inventory was 7 percent above April 1, 2017 – and that is the second highest April 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.92 million hea...
Cattle on Feed; Farm Bill Update
Cattle on Feed Tomorrow USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report. The industry’s pre-report estimates peg the total number on feed as of 1 April to be 107.6 percent of last year with March placements and marketings at 91 percent and 96 percent ,respectively, of the totals...
Biofuels
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
Huge Day for Ag Policy
It was a huge day for agriculture policy in Washington today with three major developments: The House Agriculture Committee released the Chairman’s Mark draft of the 2018 Farm Bill. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) might be back on the negotiating table. President Trump is saying publ...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
Huge Day for Ag Policy
It was a huge day for agriculture policy in Washington today with three major developments: The House Agriculture Committee released the Chairman’s Mark draft of the 2018 Farm Bill. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) might be back on the negotiating table. President Trump is saying publ...
Market Commentary
A war of words between the U.S. and Russia over a possible U.S. missile strike against the Syrian regime, intended as a response to its purported gas attack on civilians, is raising geopolitical tensions. Yesterday’s calming conciliatory remarks on trade from Chinese President Xi have pro...
Farm Inputs
Ag Review - March 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Rust; Argentine Weather and Soy Export Taxes; Monsanto
Growing Soybean Rust Problem in Parana Asian soybean rust can be a devastating pathogen if not adequately controlled, and agronomists in Brazil recommend that farmers spray their crop at least every two weeks as a preventative measure. However, dry periods are required for this process to be ef...
Ag Review - December 2017
2017 was an eventful year for the U.S. economy and the agricultural markets. 2018 promises to be just as interesting, although perhaps not as bullish. A few ag sectors look to continue patterns of the current year as the U.S. biofuels industry is under strong political influence. Meanwhil...
Ag Review - March 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Rust; Argentine Weather and Soy Export Taxes; Monsanto
Growing Soybean Rust Problem in Parana Asian soybean rust can be a devastating pathogen if not adequately controlled, and agronomists in Brazil recommend that farmers spray their crop at least every two weeks as a preventative measure. However, dry periods are required for this process to be ef...
Ag Review - December 2017
2017 was an eventful year for the U.S. economy and the agricultural markets. 2018 promises to be just as interesting, although perhaps not as bullish. A few ag sectors look to continue patterns of the current year as the U.S. biofuels industry is under strong political influence. Meanwhil...
More Things to Keep You Up at Night
Soy complex prices eased a bit this week on better chances for precipitation across the driest parts of southern Brazil and Argentina over the next 10-14 days. Bob Kohlmeyer’s piece about La Nina and Argentine crop production (see Ag Perspectives, 14 December) explained the current situat...
Equities
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
Market Commentary
Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese users at unfairly low prices, thus damaging China’s corn producers and others. The study found those import prices declined 13 percent bet...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
Market Commentary
Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese users at unfairly low prices, thus damaging China’s corn producers and others. The study found those import prices declined 13 percent bet...
Market Commentary
Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, though, and that held corn down as well. Last Friday night’s military action in Syria had no apparent effect on either U.S. commodity mar...
Energy
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere, livestock futures (live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs) are showing technical signals that may influence how traders should manage the...
Summary of Futures
Ag, energy, and soft commodity futures’ technical patterns, including momentum and long-term indicators, are examined. Changes in the forward curve for grain futures have important implications while livestock momentum indicators provide directional insights. ...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
Summary of Futures
Changes in Commodity Analytics’ short-term technical indicators for grain futures should be carefully examined against long-term signals. Elsewhere, livestock futures (live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hogs) are showing technical signals that may influence how traders should manage the...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
Softs
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, which is ready for harvest. In those areas where harvesting has begun, the stock arrivals at market yards have been similarly impacted by rainf...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, which is ready for harvest. In those areas where harvesting has begun, the stock arrivals at market yards have been similarly impacted by rainf...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Stocks and Prospective Plantings
USDA’s 1 March quarterly stocks and initial planting intentions reports have a history of providing market-moving surprises, and today’s releases add to that history. The corn and soybean stocks had been expected to be record large, and they were. Along with those of wheat, they all...
Macroeconomics
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Ag Review - March 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
To no one’s surprise, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate a quarter-percent to a still historically low 1.75 percent. This increase, the sixth since December 2015, was approved unanimously by the voting members of the committee. T...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Ag Review - March 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Market Commentary
To no one’s surprise, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its interest rate a quarter-percent to a still historically low 1.75 percent. This increase, the sixth since December 2015, was approved unanimously by the voting members of the committee. T...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good recovery in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, the sugar industry expects 2017/18 sugar production to reach 29.2 MMT, a record. That is...