Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
More Tales from Export Sales
Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the volumes of export sales and shipments. The fact that such issues currently involve China, Mexico and Canada ensures that whatever happens in th...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Poor Yields in Rio Grande do Sul; Argentine Soy Crop
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 12 April was well above average for U.S. soybeans. Net sales totaled 1,040,700 MT for shipment in 2017/18, mostly to unknown destinations (581,000 MT), Mexico (129,900 MT), Indonesia (77,800 MT), Egypt...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course With the brief holiday concluded, the increased cost of soybeans and reduced crush output pushed soymeal inventories down last week. The estimated nationwide total fell 40,900 MT (-5.21 percent) to 785,100 MT as of 13 April, but that is up 158,600 MT (...
Market Commentary
Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese users at unfairly low prices, thus damaging China’s corn producers and others. The study found those import prices declined 13 percent bet...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; Indian Monsoon; Braziian Soy Production
NOPA’s March Soybean Crush a Record Monthly High Yesterday the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its monthly crush report for March. It indicated 171.858 million bushels (4.68 MMT) of soybeans were crushed, up 18.8 million bushels (10.9 percent) from March 2017 and t...
Market Commentary
Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, though, and that held corn down as well. Last Friday night’s military action in Syria had no apparent effect on either U.S. commodity mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans After the instability of two weeks ago, soybean trading around the world was steadier last week. Since the Chinese prime minister announced then that his country would apply 25 percent import duties on U.S. soybeans, there has been no further update. This allowed the soybean market to...
U.S. Soybean Numbers Still Bearish
The U.S. soybean market has had a bearish fundamental outlook for well over a year. Record U.S. and Brazilian crops in 2017 pushed world supplies to record levels despite the consistent growing demand from China. Most market analysts expected soybean futures prices would drop to below $9.00/bus...
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Summer Weather?
Everyone wants to know what the U.S. growing season will be like in 2018. Analysts with a bearish bent are projecting record corn and soybean yields before the crops have been planted. Those with a bullish bent are saying severe weather and yield problems aren’t needed to reduce ending su...
Market Commentary
In terms of market-moving news, the last several days have been something of a desert. The unlikelihood that the forecast weekend rains will provide much relief for the Plains and NOAA’s outlook that dryness will continue into May are supporting KC HRW futures but little else. This was th...
More Tales from Export Sales
Insofar as cash and futures markets for grain and the soy complex are concerned, the impacts of U.S. trade policy issues are ultimately measured by the volumes of export sales and shipments. The fact that such issues currently involve China, Mexico and Canada ensures that whatever happens in th...
Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Poor Yields in Rio Grande do Sul; Argentine Soy Crop
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 12 April was well above average for U.S. soybeans. Net sales totaled 1,040,700 MT for shipment in 2017/18, mostly to unknown destinations (581,000 MT), Mexico (129,900 MT), Indonesia (77,800 MT), Egypt...
Market Commentary
Other than Plains weather, overnight grain and soy markets had little on which to trade. Weather models keep reducing the amount of moisture and shifting the coverage of the widely-advertised weekend rains further east. Much of Kansas will apparently receive less than a half-inch or be missed e...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reverses Course With the brief holiday concluded, the increased cost of soybeans and reduced crush output pushed soymeal inventories down last week. The estimated nationwide total fell 40,900 MT (-5.21 percent) to 785,100 MT as of 13 April, but that is up 158,600 MT (...
Market Commentary
Trade issues with China continue. In an antidumping action, its government declared a study has shown that U.S. grain sorghum has been sold to Chinese users at unfairly low prices, thus damaging China’s corn producers and others. The study found those import prices declined 13 percent bet...
Oilseed Highlights: NOPA Crush Report; Indian Monsoon; Braziian Soy Production
NOPA’s March Soybean Crush a Record Monthly High Yesterday the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its monthly crush report for March. It indicated 171.858 million bushels (4.68 MMT) of soybeans were crushed, up 18.8 million bushels (10.9 percent) from March 2017 and t...
Market Commentary
Markets were again soft to start the Sunday night session and the week. Soybeans traded mostly back and forth overnight. Wheat markets were quite weak, though, and that held corn down as well. Last Friday night’s military action in Syria had no apparent effect on either U.S. commodity mar...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans After the instability of two weeks ago, soybean trading around the world was steadier last week. Since the Chinese prime minister announced then that his country would apply 25 percent import duties on U.S. soybeans, there has been no further update. This allowed the soybean market to...
U.S. Soybean Numbers Still Bearish
The U.S. soybean market has had a bearish fundamental outlook for well over a year. Record U.S. and Brazilian crops in 2017 pushed world supplies to record levels despite the consistent growing demand from China. Most market analysts expected soybean futures prices would drop to below $9.00/bus...