World Perspectives

Recent South America Analysis

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally

The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT down to 54 MMT last week. The main reasons are the February heatwave (which affected the mid- and late-season corn), excessive rainfall, and inclement weather that caused yield losses...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on Vegoil Strength; Record Cow-Calf Profits Forecast for 2024

The CBOT largely reversed the trends of the prior two days as wheat futures pulled back while the soy complex jumped to sharp gains and the corn market saw quiet strength. The soy complex is reacting to growing strength in broader vegoil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, and that fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Gains Continue while Corn, Soy Slide Sideways

The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with traders consolidating positions ahead of next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports. Fresh fundamental news was light, which left corn and the soy complex to drift sideways/lower while wheat futures pushed higher with support comi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat

When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...

livestock

Brazil’s Meat Opportunity

Brazil has famously surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and it could become a more consistent top exporter of corn. However, its livestock production lags. Brazil’s soybean production has been expanding at an average 5.5 percent per year, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Intense rains have fallen over practically all of Argentina’s agricultural region in the last few days, delaying the corn harvest. The reported weekly progress was only 1 percent, and the total harvested area stands at only 3.2 percent. Several days of good weather will be nece...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals

The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s early corn harvest has begun in various regions of the country with good yields, although it's too early to draw conclusions as the harvested area has only reached 2 percent of the total area. While one should expect the harvest to pick up speed in the coming days, the fo...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February.  The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24.  The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February.  The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year.  The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes

The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE

With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW.  Tomorrow will see the release...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE

The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower

The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise

The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary: Higher CBOT and Corn Reversal Deny Long-Run Bearish Outlook

The CBOT turned mostly higher to start the week amid some bullish fundamental developments and funds covering shorts after the market’s recent and wildly profitable plunge lower. Corn was the upside leader with the May contract posting a bullish key reversal on the chart as export inspect...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans  Market Overview  Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and  last week Brazil saw movement for March...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying

The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise

Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally

The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT down to 54 MMT last week. The main reasons are the February heatwave (which affected the mid- and late-season corn), excessive rainfall, and inclement weather that caused yield losses...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on Vegoil Strength; Record Cow-Calf Profits Forecast for 2024

The CBOT largely reversed the trends of the prior two days as wheat futures pulled back while the soy complex jumped to sharp gains and the corn market saw quiet strength. The soy complex is reacting to growing strength in broader vegoil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, and that fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Gains Continue while Corn, Soy Slide Sideways

The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with traders consolidating positions ahead of next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports. Fresh fundamental news was light, which left corn and the soy complex to drift sideways/lower while wheat futures pushed higher with support comi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Complex Pause Rallies while Technical Buying Lifts Wheat

When markets opened on Monday there were just nine trading sessions before the quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Intentions reports from USDA, which meant that traders were focused on adjusting positions and forecasts ahead of those numbers. Beyond that, the weather is the market’s prima...

livestock

Brazil’s Meat Opportunity

Brazil has famously surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and it could become a more consistent top exporter of corn. However, its livestock production lags. Brazil’s soybean production has been expanding at an average 5.5 percent per year, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Intense rains have fallen over practically all of Argentina’s agricultural region in the last few days, delaying the corn harvest. The reported weekly progress was only 1 percent, and the total harvested area stands at only 3.2 percent. Several days of good weather will be nece...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals

The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s early corn harvest has begun in various regions of the country with good yields, although it's too early to draw conclusions as the harvested area has only reached 2 percent of the total area. While one should expect the harvest to pick up speed in the coming days, the fo...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February.  The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24.  The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February.  The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year.  The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes

The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Markets Move Ahead of March WASDE

With the exception of SRW, markets generally closed above overnight levels as short-covering progressed ahead of tomorrow’s USDA March WASDE. There was solid volume pushing corn, soybeans, and soyoil higher, but there was also high volume selling SRW.  Tomorrow will see the release...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Dumpster Fire Continues; Corn, Soy Complex Stable Before WASDE

The dumpster fire that is the wheat market continued to rage on Wednesday with Paris, CBOT, and KCBT markets all scoring new contract lows. The fundamental reason for the weakness is hardly new – rampant competition from the Black Sea and Europe – but prices in the physical market c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: South American Rains, Export Competition Push CBOT Lower

The CBOT turned lower on Tuesday with wheat leading the way on new contract lows in Paris wheat and aggressive competition from Ukraine and Russia on the export market. CBOT wheat also scored new contract lows as traders again piled into short positions on the emerging technical weakness. Corn...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Next Week Won’t Be Boring as Wheat, Corn Pull Back and Soybeans Rise

The CBOT was mixed to end the week and start the month of March with livestock futures extending their rallies amid strong fundamentals. Grain trade, however, was less decisive with wheat futures dropping sharply lower amid greater competition from Ukraine and a bearish breakdown in technical c...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary: Higher CBOT and Corn Reversal Deny Long-Run Bearish Outlook

The CBOT turned mostly higher to start the week amid some bullish fundamental developments and funds covering shorts after the market’s recent and wildly profitable plunge lower. Corn was the upside leader with the May contract posting a bullish key reversal on the chart as export inspect...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans  Market Overview  Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and  last week Brazil saw movement for March...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying

The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Inflation and U.S. Dollar Rise

Macroeconomic trade largely defined price action in the ag markets on Tuesday as higher-than-expected CPI inflation spooked markets. The U.S. CPI came in above expectations at 3.1 percent, which sent the U.S. dollar index sharply higher as it implies the Fed will have to keep interest rates hig...

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