FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 18 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain generally good and, in some cases, surpass initial expectations, prompting upward revisions to production estimates. The market projects 18–1...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily focused in the central agricultural region. Standing crops are transitioning from late grain filling to physiological maturity, with 80.7 p...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceeding the historical monthly average in most areas. After three years of severe drought, the rainfall is a welcome development for soil moistu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Mixed Monday on Risk-off Trade; Feeder Cattle Rally on Import Ban
The holiday trading season is officially here, which means the CBOT will likely see fading volume and volatility until the new year. Ag markets reflected much of that sentiment on Monday with wheat and corn falling amid reduced concerns about the conflict in the Black Sea while soybeans and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat High temperatures in recent days have slightly accelerated crop maturity and the harvest in Argentina. Weekly harvest progress reached 12 percent, with 30 percent of the area harvested. Yields show significant variability. In some cases, yields are improving as harvesters move into t...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing the total to 17 percent of the sown area. The harvest begins in the north and gradually moves southward. In the northwest, the harvest is nea...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 18 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...
Market Commentary: Corn Bounces while Soybeans Fall; Cattle and Hogs Post Bearish Reversals
The CBOT was mixed on the start of the last full trading week of 2024 with exports and South American weather being the primary variables to affect market dynamics. The corn market turned higher on the strong export pace and on some hints of dryness emerging in south-central Argentina. The KC w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest recorded a week-on-week progress of 15.8 percentage points and reached 63.9 percent of the total area. Yields remain generally good and, in some cases, surpass initial expectations, prompting upward revisions to production estimates. The market projects 18–1...
Argentina’s Economy One Year after Milei
A look at Argentina’s fiscal and economic policy is instructive on two levels. First, understanding its impact for Argentina’s position in ag commodity trade, and second as a policy analog. President-elect Trump will create the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will be part o...
Wasde Soybeans
WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...
Wasde Corn
WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...
Wasde Wheat
WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Argentine wheat harvest has reached 48.1 percent of the expected area, with weekly progress of 9.4 percentage points, with efforts primarily focused in the central agricultural region. Standing crops are transitioning from late grain filling to physiological maturity, with 80.7 p...
Trump Tariffs Round Two – Canada and Mexico
In various social media posts, President-elect Trump last week announced his plans to implement a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, stating “… as one of my first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25 percent tariff on all pro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
November Rainfall and Crop Impacts in ArgentinaRecent rains have brought significant rain accumulation for Argentina, with precipitation in November exceeding the historical monthly average in most areas. After three years of severe drought, the rainfall is a welcome development for soil moistu...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sees Mixed Monday on Risk-off Trade; Feeder Cattle Rally on Import Ban
The holiday trading season is officially here, which means the CBOT will likely see fading volume and volatility until the new year. Ag markets reflected much of that sentiment on Monday with wheat and corn falling amid reduced concerns about the conflict in the Black Sea while soybeans and soy...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat High temperatures in recent days have slightly accelerated crop maturity and the harvest in Argentina. Weekly harvest progress reached 12 percent, with 30 percent of the area harvested. Yields show significant variability. In some cases, yields are improving as harvesters move into t...
China-Brazil Bilateral at the G20 Summit: New Deals to Be Announced
The G20 meets in Rio de Janeiro this week, and Presidents Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva of Brazil and Xi Jinping of China have a bilateral side meeting on their respective calendars. The agenda is focused on promoting development strategies between China and Brazil.Brazil’s Ag Minister Carlos Fav...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The wheat harvest in Argentina is progressing at a steady pace. Last week, the harvested area share increased by 5 percentage points, bringing the total to 17 percent of the sown area. The harvest begins in the north and gradually moves southward. In the northwest, the harvest is nea...
Market Commentary: Funds Resume Soy Complex Selling; Wheat Falls on Improved Weather
The CBOT was almost uniformly in the red on Tuesday with any bullish supply-side implications from the November WASDE largely forgotten (or ignored) amid bearish demand-side developments. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar is threatening to undo much of the export demand gains the market has w...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat As of the end of the first week of November, 12 percent of Argentina’s sown wheat area has already been harvested. Harvesting is progressing quickly in the country’s north, with yields that are low but within expectations. Although a few more weeks will pass before the harvest is wid...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Corn - Nov 2024
WASDE Corn – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease in U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to be slightly...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Market Commentary: Grains Rise on Export Demand; Soyoil, Livestock Fall on Technical Trade
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with fresh daily export sales announcements and a solid Export Inspections report underpinning the day’s moves. While corn, soybeans, and KC wheat all settled higher for the day, gains were muted as few traders were interested in adding significant r...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The long-awaited rains have finally arrived in southeastern Buenos Aires, with precipitation totals ranging from 20–50 mm. While the rainfall isn’t sufficient to complete the wheat crop, it provides relief to an area where plants were beginning to suffer. For now, it halts the declin...
Market Commentary: A Week of Notable Numbers
Except for soymeal, the rest of the grains and oilseeds contracts traded higher in the overnight, and opened higher this morning, but only corn and soyoil ended the day higher. New contract highs were scored today in lean hogs and Malaysian palm oil. A new contract low was marked today fo...
U.S. Soybean Crush Margin Outlook
The three legs of the U.S. soybean crush have each seen interesting and divergent dynamics over the past month that have influenced the crush margin outlook. Notably, soymeal prices have slumped $30/MT lower since early October and are hovering near contract lows just below the $300 mark. Conve...
Market Commentary: CBOT Debates Following Seasonal Rules
The CBOT was mixed for the day with wheat futures sinking lower after the HRW and SRW growing regions received favorable rains Wednesday and early Thursday. That, combined with export pressure from Russia and the Black Sea countries, put wheat on the defensive with funds emerging as net sellers...