Recent Softs Analysis
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, which is ready for harvest. In those areas where harvesting has begun, the stock arrivals at market yards have been similarly impacted by rainf...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Stocks and Prospective Plantings
USDA’s 1 March quarterly stocks and initial planting intentions reports have a history of providing market-moving surprises, and today’s releases add to that history. The corn and soybean stocks had been expected to be record large, and they were. Along with those of wheat, they all...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Shows Deficit While the government of India (GOI) has forecast the 2017/18 soybean crop at 11.39 MMT, the trade and industry is projecting 7.2-7.5 MMT. Domestic crushers have procured 0.1 MMT from various African origins (mainly Ethiopia) in recent months as th...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good recovery in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, the sugar industry expects 2017/18 sugar production to reach 29.2 MMT, a record. That is...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends China’s Ag Imports Climb Nearly 13 Percent in 2017 With the conclusion of China’s Lunar New Year celebrations, its Ministry of Commerce has started to release year-end data. Farm-related products entering the country in 2017 were valued at $125.9 billion, up 12.8 percen...
Let the Guessing Games Begin
The noted economist John Kenneth Galbraith famously observed that “the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,” which is interesting since he was one of the foremost economic forecasters of his time. His remark could be considered especially appl...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices Up, but DDGS Not Available as Alternative The Soybean Oil Processors Association (SOPA) has again trimmed its estimate for India’s 2017/18 soybean production (harvest in October-November 2017), reducing the previous forecast of 9.15 MMT to 8.35 MMT. The government of India...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Duties on Sugar and Chickpea Imports Have Immediate Effect To keep a check on prices, the government of India (GOI) has raised the duty on sugar from 50 percent to 100 percent. The increase was a demand from the sugar industry as sugar prices were below the cost of production. Both carry...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximately 9.88 percent to 1.058 MMT versus 1.174 MMT in December 2016. They totaled 2.283 MMT for the two months of November and December 2017, down...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Exports Trending Lower For FY 2017/18 (April-March), India’s soymeal exports totaled 1.156 MMT, up from 0.916 MMT the previous year. However, they were lower in the first six months at 0.666 MMT versus 0.840 MMT during the same period of FY 2016/17. After peaking at 0.207 MMT in N...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Wheat Procurement Starts; New Crop Quality Issues Unseasonal rains across the wheat belt (north India) in the last week have somewhat damaged the crop, which is ready for harvest. In those areas where harvesting has begun, the stock arrivals at market yards have been similarly impacted by rainf...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...
Stocks and Prospective Plantings
USDA’s 1 March quarterly stocks and initial planting intentions reports have a history of providing market-moving surprises, and today’s releases add to that history. The corn and soybean stocks had been expected to be record large, and they were. Along with those of wheat, they all...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Shows Deficit While the government of India (GOI) has forecast the 2017/18 soybean crop at 11.39 MMT, the trade and industry is projecting 7.2-7.5 MMT. Domestic crushers have procured 0.1 MMT from various African origins (mainly Ethiopia) in recent months as th...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Record Sugar Production Expected Based on the projected increase in sugarcane production (see Ag Perspectives, 2 March), a higher crush as well as good recovery in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, the sugar industry expects 2017/18 sugar production to reach 29.2 MMT, a record. That is...
China In-Country Analysis
Macro Trends China’s Ag Imports Climb Nearly 13 Percent in 2017 With the conclusion of China’s Lunar New Year celebrations, its Ministry of Commerce has started to release year-end data. Farm-related products entering the country in 2017 were valued at $125.9 billion, up 12.8 percen...
Let the Guessing Games Begin
The noted economist John Kenneth Galbraith famously observed that “the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,” which is interesting since he was one of the foremost economic forecasters of his time. His remark could be considered especially appl...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Soymeal Prices Up, but DDGS Not Available as Alternative The Soybean Oil Processors Association (SOPA) has again trimmed its estimate for India’s 2017/18 soybean production (harvest in October-November 2017), reducing the previous forecast of 9.15 MMT to 8.35 MMT. The government of India...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Sugar Prices Firm; Export Duty Could Be Removed Sugar prices continue to firm following the imposition of an export duty and stock limits on sugar mills. According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) data, the bottom spot price occurred on 5 February 2018 with prices rising 8...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Higher Duties on Sugar and Chickpea Imports Have Immediate Effect To keep a check on prices, the government of India (GOI) has raised the duty on sugar from 50 percent to 100 percent. The increase was a demand from the sugar industry as sugar prices were below the cost of production. Both carry...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
High Duty Reduces Edible Oil Imports Edible oil imports dropped in December 2017 following an increase in the duty the previous month, falling approximately 9.88 percent to 1.058 MMT versus 1.174 MMT in December 2016. They totaled 2.283 MMT for the two months of November and December 2017, down...