World Perspectives

Softs Recent Softs Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...

softs

USA Gone Nuts

While oilseeds receive much of the attention, tree nuts, which are technically a seed and containing oil, have gone even more gangbusters for U.S. producers in recent years. Almonds have received much of the focus as the U.S. produces nearly 80 percent of the crop and a comparable share of the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...

softs

Going up with a Bang

A futures contract that persistently moves up or down by just a penny or two each day imposes its own burden on the market. While speculators are said to prosper from volatility, and sellers want higher prices and buyers prefer them lower, everyone prefers a story. Apparently, the cotton market...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...

softs

Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall

At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...

softs

Say Cheese!

Ilena Peng from Bloomberg has written about the expansion of U.S. cheese exports. Former French President Charles de Gaulle once noted that his country has hundreds of different cheeses and the U.S. had hundreds of different religions. But the U.S. has since become a major producer of many diff...

softs

Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?

Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...

feed-grains softs

Kenya’s Crop Choices

In yesterday’s WPI Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional analysis report, it was noted that Kenyan farmers are switching from growing maize to growing sweet potatoes. The latter being easier to grow than drought sensitive maize and netting three crops per year. But whether maize...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations.  In the soy complex...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...

softs

Pulses Not Pulsing

The International Grains Council (IGC), Rabobank, and others have followed countries and companies moving into the pulses space. It is logical that plant-based proteins like pulses should be an attractive market. However, the compound average growth rate (CAGR) for the larger category is only 2...

softs

Sugar Price Response

The March 2025 No. 11 sugar contract rebounded last week but it is still down over 20 percent from its high. Analysts started the year expecting sugar prices to rise this year on short supplies. The International Sugar Organization is still warning of a net deficit once global consumption is su...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...

softs

Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook

Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25.  Cotton Production  World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...

softs

Dairy Trade Expands Despite Hurdles

Concerns about faltering U.S. dairy exports last year have now subsided as growth has returned to the sector. This despite: production growth leveling off as increases in milk per cow do not offset the fall in the number of dairy farms; an 18 percent rise in dairy futures over the past year...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The major theme of the latest CFTC report is funds paring back risk in corn and the soy complex heading into the December WASDE report and/or the holiday season. Corn’s range-bound trade these past two weeks prompted funds to shed 13 percent of their long position in the market and have liquida...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Once again, the major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds still remain solidly bullish corn and added another 7 percent to their long position in that market. That was particularly impressive as the week ending 19 November (the reporting deadline for the CFTC report) included days wit...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report is that funds are increasingly and somewhat aggressively bullish corn as they rapidly expanded a small long into a near-100,000 contract bullish position. Over the period 5 through 12 November, funds bought over 96,000 contracts, which is the 11th large...

softs

USA Gone Nuts

While oilseeds receive much of the attention, tree nuts, which are technically a seed and containing oil, have gone even more gangbusters for U.S. producers in recent years. Almonds have received much of the focus as the U.S. produces nearly 80 percent of the crop and a comparable share of the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The major finding of Friday’s CFTC report was the confirmation that funds have officially flipped their formerly massive net short in corn to a net long. After buying back nearly 40,000 contracts last week, funds now sit long 3,035 contracts as of 5 November, a position which was extended signi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 29 October, funds continued their aggressive short covering in the corn market with strong export sales justifying the move. Funds reduced their net short position by about 60 percent last week, and now hold a relatively small position of 35,000 contracts short. The continued exit from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 22 October, funds engaged in the expected short covering in the corn market amid the unexpected surge in exports. Funds’ total buying volume, however, was below expectations at just shy of 20,000 contracts though they certainly added to that number after Tuesday’s data reporting deadlin...

softs

Going up with a Bang

A futures contract that persistently moves up or down by just a penny or two each day imposes its own burden on the market. While speculators are said to prosper from volatility, and sellers want higher prices and buyers prefer them lower, everyone prefers a story. Apparently, the cotton market...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...

softs

Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall

At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...

softs

Say Cheese!

Ilena Peng from Bloomberg has written about the expansion of U.S. cheese exports. Former French President Charles de Gaulle once noted that his country has hundreds of different cheeses and the U.S. had hundreds of different religions. But the U.S. has since become a major producer of many diff...

softs

Coffee Rally Stalls as Weather Shifts, Bear Move Ahead?

Coffee futures have been on a massive rally in 2024 with the ICE “C” contract rising above $2.60/lb last week, breaching that point for just the fifth time since 1970. The catalyst for the rally has been well reported this year, with declining stocks and weather issues in major prod...

feed-grains softs

Kenya’s Crop Choices

In yesterday’s WPI Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional analysis report, it was noted that Kenyan farmers are switching from growing maize to growing sweet potatoes. The latter being easier to grow than drought sensitive maize and netting three crops per year. But whether maize...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations.  In the soy complex...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...

softs

Pulses Not Pulsing

The International Grains Council (IGC), Rabobank, and others have followed countries and companies moving into the pulses space. It is logical that plant-based proteins like pulses should be an attractive market. However, the compound average growth rate (CAGR) for the larger category is only 2...

softs

Sugar Price Response

The March 2025 No. 11 sugar contract rebounded last week but it is still down over 20 percent from its high. Analysts started the year expecting sugar prices to rise this year on short supplies. The International Sugar Organization is still warning of a net deficit once global consumption is su...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...

softs

Cotton Market Basics and 2024/25 Outlook

Following recent client requests, WPI provides the following overview of the cotton market, its basic structure and recent trends, and a short outlook for MY 2024/25.  Cotton Production  World cotton production is highly concentrated with four countries (China, India, Brazil, and the...

softs

Dairy Trade Expands Despite Hurdles

Concerns about faltering U.S. dairy exports last year have now subsided as growth has returned to the sector. This despite: production growth leveling off as increases in milk per cow do not offset the fall in the number of dairy farms; an 18 percent rise in dairy futures over the past year...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...

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