Market Commentary: SOH Confusion Persists, but Ags Focus on Weather, Exports
The situation in the Persian Gulf remains as volatile as ever since it started on 28 February with a supposed weekend peace agreement dissolving into the U.S. Navy firing upon an Iranian vessel. The vessel was trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly did not heed commands to h...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.06/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $6 from...
Aid versus Trade; Idealism versus Competition; AI and Ag; Untethered Presidency
Aid versus Trade Development assistance has a long and unsatisfying history. The causes of poverty were long ago identified as poor governance and the lack of rule of law. But the UN could not criticize the national leaders that form its membership, and so for decades development assistance has...
Iran Peace Talks on Again, Off Again: Impacting Fertilizer
President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels. Araghchi’s post said the strait will stay open for the remainder of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump said, “the Str...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 20 April)
Update for 6 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week as signs of hope in the Middle East triggered an exit of geological “risk on” trades from commodity markets. Funds sold 40,000 contracts (4...
Cattle on Feed - April 1 2026
U.S. cattle on feed totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2026, 1 percent below April 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.71 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.63 million head, 6 percent below 2025. Other disa...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.8/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Rebound for Corn, Beans on Iran News; Wheat Declines
New variables specifically in the agricultural markets were light today, but the Iran war news hit some markets like a tsunami. The war and Iran’s chokehold on global oil supplies have subjugated economies for nearly seven weeks with outsized petrol prices. Everything became distorted aro...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more of capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 99 percent of last year. The steer and steer calf inventory was down slightly from a year ago at 7.256 million head,...
Market Commentary: More Wheat Weather Premium, but Weakness Elsewhere
There was generally modest volume today, with the exception of wheat, which was also uniquely higher on the day. New highs for the calendar year were printed in HRW as the fledgling crop is about to have the double-whammy of freezing temperatures added to drought as the welcoming committee for...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 April will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.6 million head. The big line item to watch agai...
Market Commentary: SOH Confusion Persists, but Ags Focus on Weather, Exports
The situation in the Persian Gulf remains as volatile as ever since it started on 28 February with a supposed weekend peace agreement dissolving into the U.S. Navy firing upon an Iranian vessel. The vessel was trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly did not heed commands to h...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.52/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Wheat closed at $6.06/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 26 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $6 from...
Aid versus Trade; Idealism versus Competition; AI and Ag; Untethered Presidency
Aid versus Trade Development assistance has a long and unsatisfying history. The causes of poverty were long ago identified as poor governance and the lack of rule of law. But the UN could not criticize the national leaders that form its membership, and so for decades development assistance has...
Iran Peace Talks on Again, Off Again: Impacting Fertilizer
President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on social media Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels. Araghchi’s post said the strait will stay open for the remainder of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump said, “the Str...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 20 April)
Update for 6 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds paring back their net long position across the major ag futures contracts for the second straight week as signs of hope in the Middle East triggered an exit of geological “risk on” trades from commodity markets. Funds sold 40,000 contracts (4...
Cattle on Feed - April 1 2026
U.S. cattle on feed totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2026, 1 percent below April 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.71 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.63 million head, 6 percent below 2025. Other disa...
Summary of Futures
May 26 Corn closed at $4.4875/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 26 Wheat closed at $5.9125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.6725/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 26 Soymeal closed at $331.8/short ton, down $0...
Market Commentary: Rebound for Corn, Beans on Iran News; Wheat Declines
New variables specifically in the agricultural markets were light today, but the Iran war news hit some markets like a tsunami. The war and Iran’s chokehold on global oil supplies have subjugated economies for nearly seven weeks with outsized petrol prices. Everything became distorted aro...
Cattle on Feed Report: Neutral
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released today. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more of capacity amounted to 11.6 million head, 99 percent of last year. The steer and steer calf inventory was down slightly from a year ago at 7.256 million head,...
Market Commentary: More Wheat Weather Premium, but Weakness Elsewhere
There was generally modest volume today, with the exception of wheat, which was also uniquely higher on the day. New highs for the calendar year were printed in HRW as the fledgling crop is about to have the double-whammy of freezing temperatures added to drought as the welcoming committee for...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report for 1 April will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 99.3 percent of last year. Those estimates imply an on-feed inventory of 11.6 million head. The big line item to watch agai...