Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ margin outlook continues to improve despite the recent pullback in feeder cattle prices. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015 but are now within striking distance of those records and could easily break them this fa...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize vessel rates initially pushing higher, but then failing on reduced coal, iron ore, and bauxite demand and shipments. Rates for Capes were particularly sensitive to China’s weakening coal import demand and the country&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3275/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Wheat and War Rattle Ahead of Holiday
Corn and soybeans closed lower overnight and danced that way this morning but once again could not resist the pull of wheat higher. The wheat market doubled down on yesterday’s weather premium mood as the Southern Plains remain overly wet. The Fed walked back some of its previous alarm be...
Livestock Roundup: Big Cattle on Feed Report on Friday
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.8 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.1 and 99.4 percent of 1 June 2024. Over the past six...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, up $0.2525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Friday, 20 June. ...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. According to the Committee, the bill … prevents a more-than $4 trillion tax hike on American families a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.74/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $285.1/short ton, up $1.4 from...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped to achieve trade deals, only the UK’s Keir Starmer has managed an agreement. However, G7 members are moving closer to Mr. Trump’...
AP Quant: Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins are on a one-way trip to a very unpleasant place and despite a brief rebound last week, remain absolutely dismal. Packer margins improved $66/head last week thanks to a massive surge in beef values and modest fed cattle gains, but profits were still horrid at -$237/head, whi...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Locks Limit Up Again; Wheat, Corn Fall; New Highs for Hogs
Soyoil remained the star of the CBOT on Monday and locked limit-up for the second day following the surprisingly bullish EPA RVO mandates released Friday. That carried soybeans and ICE canola futures higher – along with other vegoil markets – for the day, but soybean and soyoil were...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6975/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $283.7/short ton, down $8.2 f...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 16 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the livestock and wheat complexes. Funds pared back bearish bets across the ag space by 28 percent (26,700 contracts) last week and now hold a re...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4375/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6975/bushel, up $0.275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $2.6 fro...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
Immigration and Trade: Update on the Chaos
After ICE raids of businesses – with more to come according to Tom Homan – President Trump admitted that his strict immigration policies are negatively impacting at least the farming and hotel sectors. A recent television news story showed empty radish fields in California devoid of...
Cow-Calf Profitability Improves, Indicates Herd Rebuilding
Southern Plains cow-calf producers’ margin outlook continues to improve despite the recent pullback in feeder cattle prices. Returns on an inflation-adjusted basis remain below those of 2014 and 2015 but are now within striking distance of those records and could easily break them this fa...
WPI Transportation Report
Dry Bulk Markets Dry bulk markets were mixed this week with Capesize vessel rates initially pushing higher, but then failing on reduced coal, iron ore, and bauxite demand and shipments. Rates for Capes were particularly sensitive to China’s weakening coal import demand and the country&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3275/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7375/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7275/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, up $0...
Market Commentary: Wheat and War Rattle Ahead of Holiday
Corn and soybeans closed lower overnight and danced that way this morning but once again could not resist the pull of wheat higher. The wheat market doubled down on yesterday’s weather premium mood as the Southern Plains remain overly wet. The Fed walked back some of its previous alarm be...
Livestock Roundup: Big Cattle on Feed Report on Friday
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventory on feed to be 98.8 percent of last year with the range of estimates between 98.1 and 99.4 percent of 1 June 2024. Over the past six...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.7425/bushel, up $0.2525 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.7475/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $284.9/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Thursday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Friday, 20 June. ...
Market Commentary: Grain Consolidation Begins while Cattle Correction Continues
With the notable exception of soyoil, the CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with funds covering shorts ahead of the midweek holiday amid a few bullish headlines. Wheat was the upside leader as harvest delays and quality concerns mount for the Southern Plains HRW crop amid persistent rains. Soyb...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. According to the Committee, the bill … prevents a more-than $4 trillion tax hike on American families a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.49/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.74/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $285.1/short ton, up $1.4 from...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped to achieve trade deals, only the UK’s Keir Starmer has managed an agreement. However, G7 members are moving closer to Mr. Trump’...
AP Quant: Livestock Industry Margins
Beef packer margins are on a one-way trip to a very unpleasant place and despite a brief rebound last week, remain absolutely dismal. Packer margins improved $66/head last week thanks to a massive surge in beef values and modest fed cattle gains, but profits were still horrid at -$237/head, whi...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Locks Limit Up Again; Wheat, Corn Fall; New Highs for Hogs
Soyoil remained the star of the CBOT on Monday and locked limit-up for the second day following the surprisingly bullish EPA RVO mandates released Friday. That carried soybeans and ICE canola futures higher – along with other vegoil markets – for the day, but soybean and soyoil were...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.3475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.365/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6975/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $283.7/short ton, down $8.2 f...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 16 June)
Update for 28 April 2025: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where o...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders became slightly more bullish the major ag market last week, due primarily to strong buying in the livestock and wheat complexes. Funds pared back bearish bets across the ag space by 28 percent (26,700 contracts) last week and now hold a re...
WASDE Soybeans – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is lower ending stocks compared with 2024/25. U.S. soybean crush for 2025/26 is projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from the 2024/25 as higher soybean meal disappearance increases 2 percent due to greater pork and poultry production. I...
WASDE Corn – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for record supplies to create higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.8 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago due to increases in both area and yield. Planted area is estimated to be 95.3 million acres and yield is projected t...
WASDE Wheat – June 2025
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for yields to average 51.6 bushels per acre, which is up 0.4 bushels from last year. Hard Red Winter and White account for most of the increase. Total 2025/26 domestic use is a record 977 million bushels, mostly on food use. Exports are projected l...
Summary of Futures
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.4375/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.6975/bushel, up $0.275 from yesterday's close. Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $2.6 fro...
Market Commentary: RFS Luck on Friday the 13th
Soybeans and soyoil were already spiking due to Israel’s attack on Iran and the bolt higher in the petroleum market and then the Trump Administration goosed it even higher by issuing a biofuel blend mandate of 24.02 billion gallons in 2026. It will be a record amount under the Renewable F...
Immigration and Trade: Update on the Chaos
After ICE raids of businesses – with more to come according to Tom Homan – President Trump admitted that his strict immigration policies are negatively impacting at least the farming and hotel sectors. A recent television news story showed empty radish fields in California devoid of...