World Perspectives

Recent North America Analysis

Good Friday

Tomorrow, 29 March is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 1 April. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wow, Some Fun Information!

USDA’s much anticipated Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports had few shockers, but they did shuffle the board a bit. First, the top line stuff: Corn Planted area was expected to drop due to higher input costs and lower prices, but USDA’s 90-million-acre number was at t...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report Neutral with Bearish Undertones

Today, USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the December through February quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.6 million head, which was 101 percent of March 2023 and the highest since 2020. That was slightly higher than pre-report expectations. Total...

Divergent Perspectives

China doesn’t offer the best business environment for American companies and FDI has plummeted. But Xi Jinping told CEO’s that his country will continue building a “first class business environment.” Meanwhile, Joe Biden tells American companies that they are monopolies...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6025/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.915/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $337.7/short ton, down $1.3 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for period March 15-21, 2024. Wheat:  Net sales of 339,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 408,900 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week, but do...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $0.8 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Acreage Outlooks Weaken Corn, Soy; Wheat Gains on Firmer Russian Offers

Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower heading into Thursday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports from the USDA, but wheat futures managed to find midday support and settle higher. Wheat’s strength came from another week of cautious gains in Russian FOB offers, which is seen...

BRICS Grain Exchange; EU Policy Foibles; Yen Implosion

BRICS Grain Exchange Russia is reportedly pushing other BRICS members to use the bloc as a grain exchange in competition with the West. The assertion is that these countries already control 42 percent of the grain trade. Add the new members like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UAE, plus other...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Sinks on Risk-Off Trade; Cattle Futures Crash on HPAI Discovery

Reactions to news headlines dominated Tuesday’s commodity trade with markets selling off in defensive, risk-off price action. As is discussed in more detail below and in nearby pages, bearish news hit the markets from the overnight collapse of a bridge in Baltimore, Maryland that closed t...

Factless Nostalgia; Cash is King

Factless Nostalgia There is yet another crusader against the modern agrifood system. This time it is Austin Frerick, who claims authenticity due to his Iowa roots but he is just another Ivy League university (Yale) pontificator hollering from the ivory tower. His book, “Barons,” com...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $339.8/short ton, down $1...

livestock

The Next Bull is a Cow

The market reacted bearishly to reports of HPAI in dairy cows in Texas and Kansas, implying concerns about a demand shock. USDA advised there is no risk to human health and the animals are recovering. Nonetheless, feeder cattle futures dropped $3-5 and live cattle prices dropped over $2/cwt. Cl...

HPAI Spreads to Mammals; Detected on Dairy Farms

Yesterday, there were two reports made public of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) detections in livestock. First, kid goats in Minnesota, who were in what was a former backyard poultry operation depopulated due to HPAI. That set of circumstances created a situation where there was a hig...

livestock

February Cold Storage

The February Cold Storage report’s numbers reflect a significant drawdown in red meat and poultry stocks compared to one year ago. Total red meat and poultry inventories were down nearly 9 percent year-over-year, despite higher slaughter and meat production numbers for the month. The repo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally

The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...

Revising Down the Economy

We’ve now had a couple of months in 2024 where economic report revisions have come in, and they have been significant. This has changed the outlook on the economy from bullish during the last part of 2023 and January, to now being more uncertain.  First, the February payroll report s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.55/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.0925/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $341.7/short ton, up $2.6 fr...

livestock

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed is up 1 percent in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.8 million head on March 1, 2024.  Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.89 million head, 10 percent above 2023. (Placements were the highest for February since the series began i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3925/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.195 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $339.1/short ton, down $5.2...

soy-oilseeds softs biofuel

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports

The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...

Good Friday

Tomorrow, 29 March is a holiday for the CBOT/CME markets in observance of Good Friday. Please note that our office will also be closed. The next Ag Perspectives will be published Monday, 1 April. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wow, Some Fun Information!

USDA’s much anticipated Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports had few shockers, but they did shuffle the board a bit. First, the top line stuff: Corn Planted area was expected to drop due to higher input costs and lower prices, but USDA’s 90-million-acre number was at t...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report Neutral with Bearish Undertones

Today, USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the December through February quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.6 million head, which was 101 percent of March 2023 and the highest since 2020. That was slightly higher than pre-report expectations. Total...

Divergent Perspectives

China doesn’t offer the best business environment for American companies and FDI has plummeted. But Xi Jinping told CEO’s that his country will continue building a “first class business environment.” Meanwhile, Joe Biden tells American companies that they are monopolies...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6025/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.915/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $337.7/short ton, down $1.3 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for period March 15-21, 2024. Wheat:  Net sales of 339,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 408,900 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week, but do...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $0.8 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Acreage Outlooks Weaken Corn, Soy; Wheat Gains on Firmer Russian Offers

Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower heading into Thursday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports from the USDA, but wheat futures managed to find midday support and settle higher. Wheat’s strength came from another week of cautious gains in Russian FOB offers, which is seen...

BRICS Grain Exchange; EU Policy Foibles; Yen Implosion

BRICS Grain Exchange Russia is reportedly pushing other BRICS members to use the bloc as a grain exchange in competition with the West. The assertion is that these countries already control 42 percent of the grain trade. Add the new members like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UAE, plus other...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 March)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 March 2024 By Matt Herrington The Baltic Dry Indexes strengthened earlier this week, but those gains faded by Thursday afternoon and markets turned mixed for the week. Capesize markets continue to struggle as they wait for Chinese demand to increase while Panamax and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Sinks on Risk-Off Trade; Cattle Futures Crash on HPAI Discovery

Reactions to news headlines dominated Tuesday’s commodity trade with markets selling off in defensive, risk-off price action. As is discussed in more detail below and in nearby pages, bearish news hit the markets from the overnight collapse of a bridge in Baltimore, Maryland that closed t...

Factless Nostalgia; Cash is King

Factless Nostalgia There is yet another crusader against the modern agrifood system. This time it is Austin Frerick, who claims authenticity due to his Iowa roots but he is just another Ivy League university (Yale) pontificator hollering from the ivory tower. His book, “Barons,” com...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $339.8/short ton, down $1...

livestock

The Next Bull is a Cow

The market reacted bearishly to reports of HPAI in dairy cows in Texas and Kansas, implying concerns about a demand shock. USDA advised there is no risk to human health and the animals are recovering. Nonetheless, feeder cattle futures dropped $3-5 and live cattle prices dropped over $2/cwt. Cl...

HPAI Spreads to Mammals; Detected on Dairy Farms

Yesterday, there were two reports made public of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) detections in livestock. First, kid goats in Minnesota, who were in what was a former backyard poultry operation depopulated due to HPAI. That set of circumstances created a situation where there was a hig...

livestock

February Cold Storage

The February Cold Storage report’s numbers reflect a significant drawdown in red meat and poultry stocks compared to one year ago. Total red meat and poultry inventories were down nearly 9 percent year-over-year, despite higher slaughter and meat production numbers for the month. The repo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally

The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...

Revising Down the Economy

We’ve now had a couple of months in 2024 where economic report revisions have come in, and they have been significant. This has changed the outlook on the economy from bullish during the last part of 2023 and January, to now being more uncertain.  First, the February payroll report s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3775/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.55/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.0925/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $341.7/short ton, up $2.6 fr...

livestock

Cattle on Feed

U.S. Cattle on Feed is up 1 percent in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.8 million head on March 1, 2024.  Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.89 million head, 10 percent above 2023. (Placements were the highest for February since the series began i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 24 Corn closed at $4.3925/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5475/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.195 from yesterday's close.  May 24 Soymeal closed at $339.1/short ton, down $5.2...

soy-oilseeds softs biofuel

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on EU Tariffs; Soy, Corn Drift Lower Before Stocks, Acres Reports

The wheat market was the surprising upside leader for the day with Matif Paris futures posting large gains after sources said the EU Commission is considering applying a €95/MT tariff on Russian wheat imports. That strength spilled over into the U.S. markets, though U.S. wheat exports are...

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