Soybean futures and the broader soy complex saw heightened volatility this week on a combination of domestic and international demand drivers. Following these moves, it is relevant to examine what seasonal pricing patterns suggest for the futures market, as well as what the implications are for soybean crushing margins. WPI’s models indicate that U.S. soybean and soyoil prices are overvalued at current levels, with increasingly attractive downside opportunities. Soybean crushing margins are, in light of global supply and demand dynamics, expected to see some near-term weakness before resuming their existing upward trend. Anyone connected to the commodity markets is undoubtedly familiar with the volatility that has engulfed the s...
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen Thursday as persistent inflation reinforced expectations for additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Higher Treasury yields have helped support the dollar, potentially reducing the competitiveness of U.S. agricultural...
In yesterday’s WASDE, USDA reduced its overall red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 as declines in beef and broiler output more than offset increases in pork and turkey production. Fourth-quarter beef production was revised downward because of slower fed cattle marketings and...
Key Takeaways: Dry bulk freight markets were stronger this week, but the rally was uneven and due to divergent dynamics across basins and vessel classes. Panamax markets were broadly higher, but Atlantic grain demand was primarily responsible while Asian activity was subdued. That trend...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.