World Perspectives

Recent Middle East & Africa Analysis

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in bulk vessel, reportedly for shipment to Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh with additional sales to Asian destinations. According to the lates...

Scale in Africa; Theory versus History; Glyphosate Bubbling; Export Restriction

Scale Needed in Africa The Overseas Development Institute (ODI), a research group funded by governments, international organizations and development groups, notes the limits of rural advancement in Africa. Most development organizations advocate a focus on improving subsistence agriculture, but...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export forecasts for several major competitors are increased. Estimated food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 955 million, based on the NASS Fl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has revised its terms for government wheat purchases after suppliers were refusing to participate in recent tenders. The major change regards demurrage fees, which suppliers were previously responsible for at discharge and in some cases...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was stable last week with some movement in February and March shipments, which is where Chinese demand is showing up. There was also some interest for April onward, but the market is not that active for deferred positions. February traded at 157 and...

Dollar Strength; Serious Africa Development; Warsaw-Brussels Fight

Dollar Strength U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stirred the currency market last week by initially saying at Davos that a weaker U.S. dollar would be good for U.S. exports (which is true), but he then subsequently asserted that a strong U.S. dollar is in the country’s long-term inte...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Hints of Changing Dynamics

Simplistic economics suggest that the value of any freely-traded commodity is ultimately determined by the balance between its supplies and demand. That is especially true for renewable crops such as grains and oilseeds that have their supplies replenished annually or semi-annually if productio...

2018 Energy Outlook

The ability to export crude oil, which was granted to U.S. producers in December 2015, is still a game changer in the energy markets. Global crude oil averaged $54/barrel in 2017, up $10/barrel from the previous year. That increase is fairly limited, however, given the 4.5 percent cut in produc...

feed-grains wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS News reports concerning a possible ADM/Bunge merger have raised questions about the future of G3 Canada, the Saudi Arabia SALIC and Bunge joint grain handling venture. However, there doesn’t seem to be much reason for concern yet since t...

Steel Steals; Colonialism versus Slavery; India’s Farm Policy; Immigration and Inflation

Steel Steals from Farmers If the Trump White House accepts the advice of the Section 232 investigation by the Ross Commerce Department and raises tariffs on steel imports, it could be U.S. farmers who are hurt. That is the calculation of former U.S. ITC commissioner Daniel Pearson. He notes tha...

feed-grains wheat

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firm as it gained about $4 in one week. Domestic prices in Russia are steady to slightly higher, and the ruble was higher with the recovery of the crude oil market. The main reason that Russian wheat continues to rally is that there is no longer any signifi...

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion; What Protectionism?

TPP Necessity: Loss Aversion President Donald Trump has called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster” and a “rape” of our country, but reality is going to make him crawl back to rejoin it and without gaining many changes. After months of briefings about the geo...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat sales are said to have reached about 750,000 MT at FOB prices of $190-195 /MT in bulk vessel, reportedly for shipment to Kenya, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh with additional sales to Asian destinations. According to the lates...

Scale in Africa; Theory versus History; Glyphosate Bubbling; Export Restriction

Scale Needed in Africa The Overseas Development Institute (ODI), a research group funded by governments, international organizations and development groups, notes the limits of rural advancement in Africa. Most development organizations advocate a focus on improving subsistence agriculture, but...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export forecasts for several major competitors are increased. Estimated food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 955 million, based on the NASS Fl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt has revised its terms for government wheat purchases after suppliers were refusing to participate in recent tenders. The major change regards demurrage fees, which suppliers were previously responsible for at discharge and in some cases...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil Brazil’s soybean market was stable last week with some movement in February and March shipments, which is where Chinese demand is showing up. There was also some interest for April onward, but the market is not that active for deferred positions. February traded at 157 and...

Dollar Strength; Serious Africa Development; Warsaw-Brussels Fight

Dollar Strength U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stirred the currency market last week by initially saying at Davos that a weaker U.S. dollar would be good for U.S. exports (which is true), but he then subsequently asserted that a strong U.S. dollar is in the country’s long-term inte...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Hints of Changing Dynamics

Simplistic economics suggest that the value of any freely-traded commodity is ultimately determined by the balance between its supplies and demand. That is especially true for renewable crops such as grains and oilseeds that have their supplies replenished annually or semi-annually if productio...

2018 Energy Outlook

The ability to export crude oil, which was granted to U.S. producers in December 2015, is still a game changer in the energy markets. Global crude oil averaged $54/barrel in 2017, up $10/barrel from the previous year. That increase is fairly limited, however, given the 4.5 percent cut in produc...

feed-grains wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS News reports concerning a possible ADM/Bunge merger have raised questions about the future of G3 Canada, the Saudi Arabia SALIC and Bunge joint grain handling venture. However, there doesn’t seem to be much reason for concern yet since t...

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