Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Safeguard and Security; Ugly Analysis; Trade Agreement Certainty
Safeguards and Security The Trump administration specifically asserted the “national security” rationale in applying duties to imported steel and aluminum because of its exception under WTO rules. However, China and now the EU as well as others are challenging that characterization...
Signs of Life for Black Sea Wheat Futures
The production of wheat as a cultivated food crop began before recorded history. It was almost certainly the first crop of any kind to be traded between different population groups, probably as a primitive exchange for tools, animal skins and the like. Wheat was also probably the first bulk agr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as offers for Russian 12.5 pro were difficult to find below $215/MT FOB. The Russia-U.S. tensions have pressured the ruble, which fell about 10 percent in one week. Consequently, domestic prices moved up sharply (in RUB expression), rising...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Argentine Soybeans; Impact of Late U.S. Winter
Large Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report showed last week was again brisk for U.S. soybeans and products. Importantly, it did not include any cancellations of soybean sales to China, although it did indicate large sales to unknown destinations. 1,510,500 MT of soy...
Strategies Needed for Trade and Development; RFS Fix; Organic Death
Strategy for Trade Business groups told the U.S. Congress this week that the government needs a strategy for approaching China. In truth, there are many areas where strategy needs to be assessed and perhaps changed. One of those that is clearly inefficient and distorted is global agricultural p...
Senator Chamberlain; Catharsis and Anecdote; Go India!
Senator Chamberlain The Trump administration proposes to compensate American farmers for any adverse fallout from its efforts to secure greater trading rights abroad. With the courage of a multi-decade member of Congress, U.S. Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), chairman of the Senate Agriculture C...
Fake Analysis; Dubious Compensation; Schizophrenic Agriculture; MENAvoid
Fake Analysis There are various interpretations of the relative success or failure of President Trump’s provocative approach to trade policy. The analysis of the “Resist” camp, perhaps represented by former Obama administration official Larry Summers, warns that it has managed...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Sales and Shipments; WASDE Report
Soybean Exporters Realigning Sales/Shipments Due to Possible Chinese Tariff China’s announcement that it will impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans if the U.S. applies a similar tariff on imports from that country has caused soybean importers and exporters to quickly realign sales a...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced Argentina corn production is due to lower harvested area and yield. Yield results seem to have been below expectations and dry conditions are expected to increase the amount of corn harvested for forage. Brazil corn production is reduced reflecting expectations of lower...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - primarily due to Morocco’s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stoc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS North African buyers of French wheat are finding that their shipments are delayed because of railway strikes in France that have created a logistics problem in moving grain. This has been further compounded by a sudden port worker strike in Rou...
Wars on Chinese Consumers, EU Farmers, and Foreign Investors; Japanese Challenge
War on Chinese Consumers China’s National Grain & Oil Information Centre (CNGOIC) is honest and forthright as it reported this week that soymeal prices have surged on fears of an escalating U.S.-China trade war. The graphs below document the rise in soybean and soymeal prices. The res...
Safeguard and Security; Ugly Analysis; Trade Agreement Certainty
Safeguards and Security The Trump administration specifically asserted the “national security” rationale in applying duties to imported steel and aluminum because of its exception under WTO rules. However, China and now the EU as well as others are challenging that characterization...
Signs of Life for Black Sea Wheat Futures
The production of wheat as a cultivated food crop began before recorded history. It was almost certainly the first crop of any kind to be traded between different population groups, probably as a primitive exchange for tools, animal skins and the like. Wheat was also probably the first bulk agr...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week as offers for Russian 12.5 pro were difficult to find below $215/MT FOB. The Russia-U.S. tensions have pressured the ruble, which fell about 10 percent in one week. Consequently, domestic prices moved up sharply (in RUB expression), rising...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Argentine Soybeans; Impact of Late U.S. Winter
Large Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report showed last week was again brisk for U.S. soybeans and products. Importantly, it did not include any cancellations of soybean sales to China, although it did indicate large sales to unknown destinations. 1,510,500 MT of soy...
Strategies Needed for Trade and Development; RFS Fix; Organic Death
Strategy for Trade Business groups told the U.S. Congress this week that the government needs a strategy for approaching China. In truth, there are many areas where strategy needs to be assessed and perhaps changed. One of those that is clearly inefficient and distorted is global agricultural p...
Senator Chamberlain; Catharsis and Anecdote; Go India!
Senator Chamberlain The Trump administration proposes to compensate American farmers for any adverse fallout from its efforts to secure greater trading rights abroad. With the courage of a multi-decade member of Congress, U.S. Senator Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), chairman of the Senate Agriculture C...
Fake Analysis; Dubious Compensation; Schizophrenic Agriculture; MENAvoid
Fake Analysis There are various interpretations of the relative success or failure of President Trump’s provocative approach to trade policy. The analysis of the “Resist” camp, perhaps represented by former Obama administration official Larry Summers, warns that it has managed...
Oilseed Highlights: Soybean Sales and Shipments; WASDE Report
Soybean Exporters Realigning Sales/Shipments Due to Possible Chinese Tariff China’s announcement that it will impose a 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans if the U.S. applies a similar tariff on imports from that country has caused soybean importers and exporters to quickly realign sales a...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced Argentina corn production is due to lower harvested area and yield. Yield results seem to have been below expectations and dry conditions are expected to increase the amount of corn harvested for forage. Brazil corn production is reduced reflecting expectations of lower...
WASDE Wheat
USDA estimates that world wheat supplies in 2017/18 will be nearly 3.0 million tons larger as production is raised to a new record of 759.8 million - primarily due to Morocco’s higher production estimate as it recovered from a severe drought in 2016/17. 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stoc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEANCOMMENTS North African buyers of French wheat are finding that their shipments are delayed because of railway strikes in France that have created a logistics problem in moving grain. This has been further compounded by a sudden port worker strike in Rou...