World Perspectives

Recent Europe Analysis

FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 December)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...

soy-oilseeds

Wasde Soybeans

WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...

feed-grains

Wasde Corn

WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...

wheat

Wasde Wheat

WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...

Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad

Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the agreement in a press conference in Montevideo and cited the need for more free trade in the fa...

Food’s Fools Gold

Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable.  Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but ha...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s quota will be reduced to 11 MMT, or about one-third of last year’s 29-MMT quota. During the quota period, no shipments of corn, barley, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain unseasonably warm and dry, though the regions received beneficial rains at the end of last week. The Balkans saw unusually heavy rainfall from the same storm system. Polish protesters are planning on blocking the border with Ukr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...

EU Studies Trading Houses

As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts.  The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024

WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...

wheat

WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024

WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...

Post-Election Transatlantic

The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...

TFP as Focus

The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year to 2.8 percent, versus 0.8 percent for the Euro Area and the 0.9 percent average for the non-U.S. G-7 countries. Competitiveness is said to be the primary term in Brussels these days, as it should be. The avera...

soy-oilseeds

Olive Oil Volatility

Bloomberg notes the problems confronting small scale olive oil producers in Spain and Italy. Production is volatile and has been under duress from drought and climate change. As a result, the price has risen, attracting investors who are creating larger scale farms. The article says, “The Super...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...

softs

Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall

At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding.  Milling Wheat  Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...

livestock

Running Out of Protein

Europe ran out of energy when the Russian attack on Ukraine forced it to reduce imports from Russia. Europe lacks the ability to defend itself despite Russia’s threat on its eastern border. Now Europe is reducing its consumption of meat but failing to invest in meat alternatives that coul...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...

FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 December)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 December 2024By Matt HerringtonDry bulk freight markets are in the middle of the holiday-season slowdown with thin and very quiet trade characterizing what little market activity is present. The peak demand period from the North American grain harvest has now past bu...

soy-oilseeds

Wasde Soybeans

WASDE Soybeans: 2024/25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. There was a significant increase in soybean oil exports by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. However, that increase was partly offset by reduction in food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil by 200 millio...

feed-grains

Wasde Corn

WASDE Corn: 2024/25 U.S. corn use for ethanol production is increased by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion. U.S. corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion. The result is that corn ending stocks are reduced by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price rec...

wheat

Wasde Wheat

WASDE Wheat: 2024/25 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million - which USDA notes is still 14 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.USDA's g...

Regulation Ruse; FTA’s Needed; Big is Bad

Regulation RuseFarmers in Europe oppose the recently completed free trade agreement with Mercosur, and have long prevented a transatlantic agreement with the U.S. They argue that their competitors in the Americas produce under less stringent environmental and labor standards. That may be true b...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News The EU and Mercosur trade blocs finally signed a free trade agreement that had been delayed and debated for 25 years or so. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heralded the agreement in a press conference in Montevideo and cited the need for more free trade in the fa...

Food’s Fools Gold

Correlation is not causation, but many nations focus their investments on agriculture due to idealizing food self-sufficiency. That can come at the expense of other investments that could prove more valuable.  Egypt has made a concentrated effort to improve its food self-sufficiency but ha...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Russia announced last week that it will impose its now-typical export quota on grains from 15 February though 30 June 2025. This year’s quota will be reduced to 11 MMT, or about one-third of last year’s 29-MMT quota. During the quota period, no shipments of corn, barley, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain unseasonably warm and dry, though the regions received beneficial rains at the end of last week. The Balkans saw unusually heavy rainfall from the same storm system. Polish protesters are planning on blocking the border with Ukr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Last week, the European Parliament voted on the EUDR regulation and officially delayed the full implementation of the ruling until December 2025.After a soggy start to autumn for most of continental Europe, particularly the western regions, the recent weather and two-week for...

EU Studies Trading Houses

As part of its witch hunt for unfair market practices, the EU Parliament’s AGRI Committee requested a study of the major agricultural commodity trading companies and their impacts.  The study may inform populists in the U.S. that also see consolidated industries as inherently harmful, but...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024

WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...

wheat

WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024

WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Algeria bought 600 KMT of wheat in its tender that closed on Monday, buying the full volume permitted, and prices are rumored to be near $263/MT C&F. Traders suspect much of the wheat is Black Sea-origin, given the diplomatic tensions between Paris and Algiers right now...

Post-Election Transatlantic

The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Russia’s winter crops may see 1.5 million hectares (Mha) go unseeded this year due to poor weather in key growing regions. Originally, 20 Mha was expected to be sown to all winter crops. Grain production in 2025 is unlikely to exceed 120 MMT now, due to the acreage reduction...

TFP as Focus

The International Monetary Fund increased its forecast for U.S. GDP growth this year to 2.8 percent, versus 0.8 percent for the Euro Area and the 0.9 percent average for the non-U.S. G-7 countries. Competitiveness is said to be the primary term in Brussels these days, as it should be. The avera...

soy-oilseeds

Olive Oil Volatility

Bloomberg notes the problems confronting small scale olive oil producers in Spain and Italy. Production is volatile and has been under duress from drought and climate change. As a result, the price has risen, attracting investors who are creating larger scale farms. The article says, “The Super...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Kazakhstan and Egypt are working to negotiated trade terms that would allow wheat to trade from the former country to the latter. The two countries are reportedly working on resolving issues that prevent Kazakhstan from participating in GASC tenders and are discussing the pos...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...

softs

Cocoa Market Update: Prices Rise as Stocks Fall

At the end of July 2024, WPI published an article looking at the drivers of the cocoa market’s massive rally in 2023 and 2024 and that offered an outlook for MY 2024/25. This article offers a brief update on market conditions and developments that have occurred in the two months since our...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News Four regions in Russia’s Siberia have declared states of emergency due to heavy rains and flooding.  Milling Wheat  Wheat markets were higher last week with U.S. futures rising about $5/MT while the Paris market added €1.25/MT for the week. Markets remain conc...

livestock

Running Out of Protein

Europe ran out of energy when the Russian attack on Ukraine forced it to reduce imports from Russia. Europe lacks the ability to defend itself despite Russia’s threat on its eastern border. Now Europe is reducing its consumption of meat but failing to invest in meat alternatives that coul...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  WPI sources in Brussels say it’s increasingly likely that the EU Deforestation Regulations will be delayed until the region can develop better implementing systems. Recall that EUDR – which would force massive reporting and traceability requirements on seven comm...

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