Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Trade and Jobs Reports
Now that the Administration’s tariff plans are out, what is happening to the trade deficit? After hitting a record in January, the trade deficit shrank to $122.7 billion in February as exports grew by $8 billion while imports declined slightly. Still, that leaves the monthly trade deficit...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if there is no negotiated settlement, there will be an appropriate response. Domestic pundits emphasize this is a tax on American consumers and...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberation Day” came to a head today with the announcement of a minimum 10 percent import tariff and rates at generally half those charged by...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan will not end is the duplicity of its opponents. Let’s look at some of the sturm und drang and its meaning. East Asia: A joint statement...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA employees were sent an email last night titled “Deferred Resignation Program 2.0,” which says they must make a decision by the dead...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and critic James Carville says the Administration has collapsed in less than three months. Morgan Stanley calls all the stated goals for tariffs as...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm groups are asking for import protections, others are advising a more strategic trade approach that opens up overseas markets. It is reported...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conducts and releases the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) every four years. The latest iteration shows the third consecutive increas...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observes that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum likely has the best three componen...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witnesses include those from agriculture, those impacted by trade retaliation, services, and former Republican trade officials. The Trump Adminis...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debate about the increasing U.S. agricultural trade deficit, and the advisability of the Trump tariff war. President Trump’s goal is...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tariff on each country supplying goods to the U.S. The few countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. may escape receiving a number but fo...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2025. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this bill would set...
Deciphering Trump
The first 100 days of the second Trump presidency doesn’t end until 30 April and is a meaningless metric because Donald Trump’s initiatives will last four years. Washington and the world are not handling the first 55 days very well and they need to figure it out or there will contin...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Tariff Waste; Changing the EU; Cost of Data; Fake Food Safety
Tariff Waste Now that Trump tariffs are going into full swing, the question is for what objective? The President says other countries treat America unfairly, indicating he sees an imbalance in trade concessions. That is why he warned he would double punitive duties on Canadian steel and aluminu...
Making Sense of the Economy
Q1 GDP growth is expected to be negative, per the Atlanta Fed “GDPNow.” Spending data is still generally positive through January, however, consumer confidence eroded sharply in February. In recent weeks, numerous economic indicators have shown decelerating spending and declining co...
Contextualizing the Scope of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs
The second Trump administration has roiled global markets in just its first few weeks in office, with some of the biggest impacts coming from the application of tariffs against major trading partners. These tariffs have, as expected, been met with retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and China. Fur...
New Canadian Prime Minister Selected
Last night, Canada selected a new prime minister-elect, as Justin Trudeau's reign, since November 2015, comes to a close amid a trade war with the U.S. On 6 January, Trudeau announced his resignation, opening up his seat. In the meantime, Canada's Liberal Party announced that Mark Carney was ch...
Small Ideas; Technical Barriers; Advice to DOGE
Small Ideas U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the objective is to reduce the role of the government. This makes sense considering the explosion in government debt to the point investor Ray Dalio says otherwise there will be a debt crisis in three years. There are two ways to addr...
First Jobs Report of Trump Administration Released
Economists predicted that the number of jobs added last month would be 160,000 ahead of the employment report, however, the actual figure was lower than expected. The report follows a month of widespread federal layoffs through Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), immig...
It’s Tarriff Day!
It’s tariff day! President Trump followed through on his plan to impose tariffs on various imported products across the economy. At 12:01 a.m. EST today, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and an additional 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy products went into effect. Pres...
Tariff Tuesday; Profit for Eggs; Green Goals Implode
Tariff Tuesday As usual, there is some agreement with Donald Trump on his goal, in this case – improved terms of trade for a country running a perpetual trillion-dollar trade deficit. But then his negotiating tactic is so over-the-top kinetic that it throws the baby out with the bath wate...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Everything Will Be OK, Says Secretary Rollins
As President Trump gears up to roll out his sweeping tariff plans tomorrow, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is promising farmers she’ll be “in the room” to protect them from the economic consequences. Speaking to producers and industry groups at the Commodity Classic in C...
Extreme is Necessary
While most economists and mainstream media outlets are criticizing the Trump tariff war, none are professing that free trade is fair. To quote Bloomberg’s Tyler Cowen, the world trading order is “weighted against the exporting interests of the U.S.” Moreover, it is growing wor...
EU and China on EV Tariffs
Yesterday, European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, Maros Sefcovic, came to Washington for meetings with U.S. officials. The trip follows comments from Ursula von der Lyden. The European Commission issued an official statement: "In response to the widespread disruption cause...
Budget Reconciliation: A Step Closer to “One Big Beautiful Bill”
Yesterday, the House of Representatives passed a budget bill by a vote of 216 to 214. The two Republican “no” votes were from Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, neither of which was a surprise. Massie has been a skeptic of the bill all along and Spartz famousl...
Tariff War Patience; Self-Sufficiency; Reciprocal Treatment
Tariff War Patience The latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers fell 12 points or nearly 8 percent on concerns about the trade war’s impact on export markets. Surveys indicate that the American public expects tariffs to raise their cost of living. They al...
A Timeline of Tariffs
As WPI readers will be fully aware, there has recently been a flood of discussion about tariffs facing U.S. agricultural exports and imports. To date, WPI has been dissatisfied with the presentation of the timeline of these tariffs and evaluation of the full duties U.S. exports face entering fo...
War, what is it Good For?
It was another day of market turmoil over tariffs. There is still not enough clarity or transition time for businesses. The high tariffs between the U.S. and China seem likely to be permanent. The public will only accept the high cost of this war if they understand and accept its goals. History...
Some Clarity, But Long Haul
Trump officials this past weekend kept up the mixed messaging over whether reciprocal tariffs were merely a negotiating strategy or a permanent fixture. Breaking too fast to negotiate with other countries would look weak, and retaining tariffs is still viewed by some in the White House as neces...
Market Commentary: Retaliation Hits as Trade War Deepens Outlook
Many stock market experts this week were advising not to start panic selling, but apparently many did. Major stock indices dropped 6-7 percent. Agricultural commodities are typically the worst hurt in trade wars, and yet the results were mixed (see below). The fundamental questions are how far...
Trade and Jobs Reports
Now that the Administration’s tariff plans are out, what is happening to the trade deficit? After hitting a record in January, the trade deficit shrank to $122.7 billion in February as exports grew by $8 billion while imports declined slightly. Still, that leaves the monthly trade deficit...
Tight Supplies, Strong U.S. Demand to Support Cattle Prices Despite Trade War
Anyone following the beef and cattle markets recently has seen the volatility that preceded the recent surge to new contract highs, and the lack of consensus in the industry’s outlook. Now, the outlook is further complicated by the tariffs that will be placed on Mexican feeder cattle impo...
While Swinging for the Fence
Early reactions to President Trump’s tariff war are as expected. Major foreign trading partners are expressing shock and assuring Washington that if there is no negotiated settlement, there will be an appropriate response. Domestic pundits emphasize this is a tax on American consumers and...
“Reciprocal” Tariffs; Apocalypse Day, or Not; Misdirection
“Reciprocal” Tariffs President Trump’s political opponents acknowledge he is a great marketer and his multi-day hype of a “Liberation Day” came to a head today with the announcement of a minimum 10 percent import tariff and rates at generally half those charged by...
Uncertainty Ends
Trump’s tariff threats are said to be causing uncertainty, though its intent is transparent. One thing tomorrow’s release of the tariff plan will not end is the duplicity of its opponents. Let’s look at some of the sturm und drang and its meaning. East Asia: A joint statement...
Quick Hits: Agency Employment, Grains Reports, and Biofuels
USDA Retirement: USDA employees have until 8 Apil to decide whether to participate in the administration's so-called deferred resignation program. USDA employees were sent an email last night titled “Deferred Resignation Program 2.0,” which says they must make a decision by the dead...
Liberation Day Minus One; States Rights, National Losses; The Hammer and USDA
Liberation Day Minus One The Trump team is said to be weighing 20 percent across the board tariffs, reducing the share of U.S. funding of the WTO, and critic James Carville says the Administration has collapsed in less than three months. Morgan Stanley calls all the stated goals for tariffs as...
Liberation Day is Coming!
President Trump said yesterday, his reciprocal tariffs will launch this Wednesday, calling it “Liberation Day.” Those new tariffs will affect "all countries." However, the Administration has yet to reveal many of the key details of his plan, or when actual duties will be implemented...
Trade War Maneuvering; MAHA HaHa; Russian Grain Agreement
Trade War Maneuvering Wall Street trading sank lower on word that the White House will announce today tariffs on automobile imports. While some U.S. farm groups are asking for import protections, others are advising a more strategic trade approach that opens up overseas markets. It is reported...
U.S. Manufacturing Energy Consumption
U.S. manufacturing energy consumption has continued to increase, according to the EIA’s recently released survey results for 2022. The agency conducts and releases the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) every four years. The latest iteration shows the third consecutive increas...
Transatlantic Provocations; Indian Adjustments; Grain Industry Threats
Transatlantic Provocations No one knows what to fully expect on 2 April and the launch of President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Bill Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies observes that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum likely has the best three componen...
Monday Policy Potpourri
Hill Trade Advice: The U.S. House Ways & Means’ Trade Subcommittee holds a hearing tomorrow on American trade negotiation priorities. Witnesses include those from agriculture, those impacted by trade retaliation, services, and former Republican trade officials. The Trump Adminis...
92 Percent of Economists Agree U.S. is in a Trade War
The U.S. has imposed tariffs widely against a host of trading partners, and those partners have retaliated with duties of their own. AgWeb's March monthly survey showed that 92 percent of economists now agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war. It’s not clear where the other 8 percent t...
Trade War Fractures
Today was National Agriculture Trade Day, an effort to boost awareness about the benefits of trade to the sector. However, the milestone also sparked debate about the increasing U.S. agricultural trade deficit, and the advisability of the Trump tariff war. President Trump’s goal is...
‘Dirty 15’; Ukraine’s Ag Exports; WTO and National Security
‘Dirty 15’ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump Administration may provide one unique number as the newly applied general tariff on each country supplying goods to the U.S. The few countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. may escape receiving a number but fo...
Budget Deal Made Just in Time
The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate have both passed the full-year Continuing Appropriations Act, which would fund the government under a continuing resolution (CR) for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2025. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that this bill would set...
Deciphering Trump
The first 100 days of the second Trump presidency doesn’t end until 30 April and is a meaningless metric because Donald Trump’s initiatives will last four years. Washington and the world are not handling the first 55 days very well and they need to figure it out or there will contin...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
Tariff Waste; Changing the EU; Cost of Data; Fake Food Safety
Tariff Waste Now that Trump tariffs are going into full swing, the question is for what objective? The President says other countries treat America unfairly, indicating he sees an imbalance in trade concessions. That is why he warned he would double punitive duties on Canadian steel and aluminu...
Making Sense of the Economy
Q1 GDP growth is expected to be negative, per the Atlanta Fed “GDPNow.” Spending data is still generally positive through January, however, consumer confidence eroded sharply in February. In recent weeks, numerous economic indicators have shown decelerating spending and declining co...
Contextualizing the Scope of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs
The second Trump administration has roiled global markets in just its first few weeks in office, with some of the biggest impacts coming from the application of tariffs against major trading partners. These tariffs have, as expected, been met with retaliation from Canada, Mexico, and China. Fur...
New Canadian Prime Minister Selected
Last night, Canada selected a new prime minister-elect, as Justin Trudeau's reign, since November 2015, comes to a close amid a trade war with the U.S. On 6 January, Trudeau announced his resignation, opening up his seat. In the meantime, Canada's Liberal Party announced that Mark Carney was ch...
Small Ideas; Technical Barriers; Advice to DOGE
Small Ideas U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the objective is to reduce the role of the government. This makes sense considering the explosion in government debt to the point investor Ray Dalio says otherwise there will be a debt crisis in three years. There are two ways to addr...
First Jobs Report of Trump Administration Released
Economists predicted that the number of jobs added last month would be 160,000 ahead of the employment report, however, the actual figure was lower than expected. The report follows a month of widespread federal layoffs through Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), immig...
It’s Tarriff Day!
It’s tariff day! President Trump followed through on his plan to impose tariffs on various imported products across the economy. At 12:01 a.m. EST today, 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and an additional 10 percent tariff on Canadian energy products went into effect. Pres...
Tariff Tuesday; Profit for Eggs; Green Goals Implode
Tariff Tuesday As usual, there is some agreement with Donald Trump on his goal, in this case – improved terms of trade for a country running a perpetual trillion-dollar trade deficit. But then his negotiating tactic is so over-the-top kinetic that it throws the baby out with the bath wate...
Tariffs, Retaliatory Measures Sink CBOT
The CBOT saw pressure develop overnight and continue through the day session as The Global Times reported that China is preparing retaliatory measures against the White House’s threatened additional 10 percent tariff against Chinese goods. Markets were also unnerved by the lack of clarity...
Everything Will Be OK, Says Secretary Rollins
As President Trump gears up to roll out his sweeping tariff plans tomorrow, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is promising farmers she’ll be “in the room” to protect them from the economic consequences. Speaking to producers and industry groups at the Commodity Classic in C...