Little Hope for Rumored Black Sea Civilian Vessel Agreement
Key Takeaways: Grain futures pulled back sharply in overnight trade Friday on rumors that Ukraine proposed two possible options for ensuring civilian vessel safety in the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine have recently targeted civilian vessels carrying oil and grain in the Sea of Azov...
Section 301: A New Tariff Architecture
Just when we thought it was safe to step outside and enjoy some certainty in the world of international commerce, the Trump Administration announced on Thursday afternoon a barrage of tariffs on 60 countries based on its recent Section 301 investigations. Section 301 permits the executive branc...
Shifts in Global Hunger
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
The Cotton Demand Impacts of Military Conflict
Key Takeaways: Global and U.S. cotton demand has struggled since the post-COVID-19 pandemic surge, which has left cotton prices drifting lower in the U.S. The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with their impact on global energy markets, could boost cotton demand...
Agricultural Labor Shortages Accelerate Automation, but Challenges Remain
Key Takeaways: Persistent labor shortages are increasing operational challenges and costs across U.S. agriculture, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as specialty crops, dairy, and meat processing. Immigrant workers, including H-2A employees, remain essential to the agricultural work...
The Growing Move Toward More Ad Hoc Farm Payments
As WPI reported on 17 July, the recently passed budget reconciliation bill in the House Budget Committee includes $12 billion in emergency farm assistance. This would be the seventh of the past nine years with ad hoc farm payments (FY2018, FY2019, FY2020, FY2022, FY2023, FY2024, and potentially...
Russia’s Diesel Export Ban Tightens Global Fuel Markets and Raises Agricultural Costs
Key Takeaways: Russia’s diesel export ban is tightening global fuel supplies and increasing dependence on alternative exporters. Limited refining capacity and logistical constraints make diesel markets especially sensitive to supply disruptions. Diesel supply disruptions are more difficu...
Trade Overview: USMCA, Brazil Section 301 Investigation, Section 122 Tariffs
USMCA Re-Negotiations At the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit on Friday, former USTR Robert Lighthizer stated that the USMCA renegotiations should focus on the trade deficit with Mexico rather than the trade pact itself. The U.S. deficit with Mexico exceeds $170 billion, including a net deficit...
Reconciliation Passes House Committee, Prospects Dim in Senate
Congress returned this week from its Fourth of July recess, with another break scheduled for the month of August, to face a busy agenda before adjourning for the August recess. Congress has several priorities, including the National Defense Authorization Act, a potential third reconciliation pa...
USDA: From Bureaucracy to Ad Hocracy
There was a time, not so long ago, when you could easily explain U.S. agricultural policy. It was countercyclical and focused on risk management, especially for traditional row crops. There were a few exceptions, like dairy and sugar, which maintained the remnants of supply control. Participati...
Global Soybean Crush Margin Forecasts
Key Takeaways: Continued domestic demand for soyoil in the U.S. will drive prices higher and create a firmer outlook for global soybean values and crush margins. U.S. soyoil prices are set to increase 13-16 percent over the next four months as the domestic demand expansion takes hold. Th...
Consumer Price Index Falls in June
This morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report makes it less likely that the Fed will hike short-term rates at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Consumer prices declined in June as energy prices moved sharply lower following a temporary peace agreement between...
Trade Deficit Data Reflects AI, Petroleum, and Soybeans
The trade deficit in goods and services came in at $77.6 billion in May, slightly smaller than the consensus estimate of $78.4 billion. After a few months of relative stability, the trade deficit widened in May. The increase in the deficit for the month was due to both a rise in imports, which...
Soyoil Clears an EU Regulatory Hurdle, but Demand Growth Faces Other Challenges
Key Takeaways: The European Parliament rejected a proposal to classify soyoil as a high ILUC-risk feedstock, preventing a potential phaseout from EU biofuel markets by 2030. Palm oil remains the only major vegetable oil designated as high ILUC-risk in the EU due to concerns over expansion into...
Choice Boxed Beef Price Falls to Yearly Low
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending
The final reading for real GDP growth in Q1 was revised upward to a 2.1 percent rate from a prior estimate of 1.6 percent, but the underlying details show a weaker mix. The stronger headline reflected a large upward revision to net exports, along with smaller upward adjustments to inventories a...
Celebrating America's 250th Anniversary
On 4 July 2026, the United States will commemorate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. In observance of the Fourth of July holiday, Ag Perspectives will not be published on Friday, 3 July. We will resume our normal publication schedule on Monday, 6 July...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Poultry’s Cost Effectiveness and Versatility Fueling Consumption Growth
Key Takeaways: Poultry is the fastest-growing major animal protein, supported by lower production costs, affordability, and broad consumer appeal. Broilers are the most feed-efficient major livestock species, giving chicken a lasting cost advantage over beef and pork. Short production cycles a...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Senate Farm Bill, Prop 12, and NWS Update
Proposition 12: The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has advocated for a fix to Proposition 12, the California animal welfare law, in the Senate farm bill. The House version of the farm bill included a fix, but the Senate bill, based on the discussion draft released by Chairman John Boozm...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
The Credibility Gap: Administrative Optimism Meets Commodity Agriculture
Can we really expect a bushel of corn to carry an environmental passport throughout the entire food system? One that reliably documents its carbon footprint, biodiversity impacts, water use, soil carbon, and other environmental attributes all the way from the farm field to the consumer? This is...
Changing Dynamics of U.S. Farm Ownership and Succession
Key Takeaways: An aging farmer population and fewer younger successors are creating growing farm succession challenges, leaving many operations without a clear future High land values and capital requirements create major barriers to farm ownership for new producers Farmland consolidation and...
USMCA Renewal Prospects
When the USMCA was renegotiated in 2020, it added a sunset review process under which all three countries — the U.S., Mexico and Canada — are to meet on 1 July to indicate whether they want to renew the pact for another 16 years. That deadline is coming up in nine days, and Trump ha...
USMCA: A Review or a Renegotiation?
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) enters its mandated six-year review on 1 July. The original intent of the review is outlined in Article 34.7, which obligates members to: Provide recommendations and decide on appropriate actions. Extend the USMCA for another 16 years and meet aga...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Friday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Monday, 22 June. ...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Port of Chancay's Success Hinges on Inland Infrastructure
Key Takeaways: China has invested heavily in the Port of Chancay to strengthen trade links between South America and Asia. The port could reduce shipping times to China by up to two weeks and improve export competitiveness. Inland transportation infrastructure remains the primary obstacle to r...
New Agreements on Iran War and EU Tariffs, Questions Remain
The U.S. and Iran announced a framework peace deal. Crude oil futures dropped to $83.08, the lowest since early March. The breakthrough comes as President Trump said that if Iran failed to reach a deal, he would order renewed military attacks. An LNG tanker chartered by India’s Petronet c...
Vertical Farming: A Promising Concept Held Back by Economic Challenges
Key Takeaways: Vertical farming offers year-round production, reduced water use, and the ability to grow fresh produce closer to consumers. High electricity consumption for lighting and climate control has proven to be the industry's biggest obstacle to profitability. Large upfront investments...
Policy Roundup: NWS, Section 122 Tariffs, and Dairy Producer Agenda
New World Screwworm Another day, another case of New World Screwworm. USDA has reported nine cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S. Of the nine reported cases, eight are located across four counties in Texas—Edwards, Gillespie, La Salle, and Zavala. Of the eight cases in Texas, si...
Regenerate, or not? You Get to Choose
It is easy to get overwhelmed by the debates surrounding farm policy and crop production, especially the current back-and-forth about regenerative agriculture. Regeneration appears to be the word of the decade, the one that won’t go away. Its ubiquity cannot be ignored; in the same way we...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Celebrating Gary Blumenthal’s Retirement After a Storied Career
After more than 40 years serving the agricultural industry and leading World Perspectives, Inc., Gary Blumenthal is retiring. His career—which included time on Capitol Hill, at USDA and the White House—helped shape U.S. and international agricultural policy and guided strategic disc...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...
Little Hope for Rumored Black Sea Civilian Vessel Agreement
Key Takeaways: Grain futures pulled back sharply in overnight trade Friday on rumors that Ukraine proposed two possible options for ensuring civilian vessel safety in the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine have recently targeted civilian vessels carrying oil and grain in the Sea of Azov...
Section 301: A New Tariff Architecture
Just when we thought it was safe to step outside and enjoy some certainty in the world of international commerce, the Trump Administration announced on Thursday afternoon a barrage of tariffs on 60 countries based on its recent Section 301 investigations. Section 301 permits the executive branc...
Shifts in Global Hunger
Key Takeaways: The latest UN data shows solid progress reducing global hunger and food insecurity. The geography of hunger-affected people has shifted substantially, however, and Africa is now the most affected region. To understand why hunger patterns have shifted and what policy option...
The Cotton Demand Impacts of Military Conflict
Key Takeaways: Global and U.S. cotton demand has struggled since the post-COVID-19 pandemic surge, which has left cotton prices drifting lower in the U.S. The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with their impact on global energy markets, could boost cotton demand...
Agricultural Labor Shortages Accelerate Automation, but Challenges Remain
Key Takeaways: Persistent labor shortages are increasing operational challenges and costs across U.S. agriculture, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as specialty crops, dairy, and meat processing. Immigrant workers, including H-2A employees, remain essential to the agricultural work...
The Growing Move Toward More Ad Hoc Farm Payments
As WPI reported on 17 July, the recently passed budget reconciliation bill in the House Budget Committee includes $12 billion in emergency farm assistance. This would be the seventh of the past nine years with ad hoc farm payments (FY2018, FY2019, FY2020, FY2022, FY2023, FY2024, and potentially...
Russia’s Diesel Export Ban Tightens Global Fuel Markets and Raises Agricultural Costs
Key Takeaways: Russia’s diesel export ban is tightening global fuel supplies and increasing dependence on alternative exporters. Limited refining capacity and logistical constraints make diesel markets especially sensitive to supply disruptions. Diesel supply disruptions are more difficu...
Trade Overview: USMCA, Brazil Section 301 Investigation, Section 122 Tariffs
USMCA Re-Negotiations At the Iowa Farm Bureau Economic Summit on Friday, former USTR Robert Lighthizer stated that the USMCA renegotiations should focus on the trade deficit with Mexico rather than the trade pact itself. The U.S. deficit with Mexico exceeds $170 billion, including a net deficit...
Reconciliation Passes House Committee, Prospects Dim in Senate
Congress returned this week from its Fourth of July recess, with another break scheduled for the month of August, to face a busy agenda before adjourning for the August recess. Congress has several priorities, including the National Defense Authorization Act, a potential third reconciliation pa...
USDA: From Bureaucracy to Ad Hocracy
There was a time, not so long ago, when you could easily explain U.S. agricultural policy. It was countercyclical and focused on risk management, especially for traditional row crops. There were a few exceptions, like dairy and sugar, which maintained the remnants of supply control. Participati...
Global Soybean Crush Margin Forecasts
Key Takeaways: Continued domestic demand for soyoil in the U.S. will drive prices higher and create a firmer outlook for global soybean values and crush margins. U.S. soyoil prices are set to increase 13-16 percent over the next four months as the domestic demand expansion takes hold. Th...
Consumer Price Index Falls in June
This morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report makes it less likely that the Fed will hike short-term rates at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Consumer prices declined in June as energy prices moved sharply lower following a temporary peace agreement between...
Trade Deficit Data Reflects AI, Petroleum, and Soybeans
The trade deficit in goods and services came in at $77.6 billion in May, slightly smaller than the consensus estimate of $78.4 billion. After a few months of relative stability, the trade deficit widened in May. The increase in the deficit for the month was due to both a rise in imports, which...
Soyoil Clears an EU Regulatory Hurdle, but Demand Growth Faces Other Challenges
Key Takeaways: The European Parliament rejected a proposal to classify soyoil as a high ILUC-risk feedstock, preventing a potential phaseout from EU biofuel markets by 2030. Palm oil remains the only major vegetable oil designated as high ILUC-risk in the EU due to concerns over expansion into...
Choice Boxed Beef Price Falls to Yearly Low
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending
The final reading for real GDP growth in Q1 was revised upward to a 2.1 percent rate from a prior estimate of 1.6 percent, but the underlying details show a weaker mix. The stronger headline reflected a large upward revision to net exports, along with smaller upward adjustments to inventories a...
Celebrating America's 250th Anniversary
On 4 July 2026, the United States will commemorate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. In observance of the Fourth of July holiday, Ag Perspectives will not be published on Friday, 3 July. We will resume our normal publication schedule on Monday, 6 July...
U.S. Exports to Cuba: It’s About Displacement
As Cuba's economic crisis has deepened, discussions about the country's eventual economic and political transition have reemerged. One question that inevitably follows is what opportunities might emerge for U.S. agricultural exports. So, here’s a brief review of those opportunities, but n...
Poultry’s Cost Effectiveness and Versatility Fueling Consumption Growth
Key Takeaways: Poultry is the fastest-growing major animal protein, supported by lower production costs, affordability, and broad consumer appeal. Broilers are the most feed-efficient major livestock species, giving chicken a lasting cost advantage over beef and pork. Short production cycles a...
Ethanol and Biodiesel Margins
What You Need To Know Today: Ethanol margins continue to run well above year-ago and normal seasonal values, but have slipped in recent weeks on weaker DDGS and ethanol pricing. WPI’s models project a steady decrease in returns to ethanol production following the end of the summer...
Senate Farm Bill, Prop 12, and NWS Update
Proposition 12: The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has advocated for a fix to Proposition 12, the California animal welfare law, in the Senate farm bill. The House version of the farm bill included a fix, but the Senate bill, based on the discussion draft released by Chairman John Boozm...
Senate Farm Bill and $11 Billion Supplemental Appropriation Request
On Wednesday, the White House submitted a national security supplemental spending request for $87.6 billion. The majority of the request includes funding for the conflict in the Middle East, but there are agricultural provisions as well. The supplemental funding package includes more than $11 b...
The Credibility Gap: Administrative Optimism Meets Commodity Agriculture
Can we really expect a bushel of corn to carry an environmental passport throughout the entire food system? One that reliably documents its carbon footprint, biodiversity impacts, water use, soil carbon, and other environmental attributes all the way from the farm field to the consumer? This is...
Changing Dynamics of U.S. Farm Ownership and Succession
Key Takeaways: An aging farmer population and fewer younger successors are creating growing farm succession challenges, leaving many operations without a clear future High land values and capital requirements create major barriers to farm ownership for new producers Farmland consolidation and...
USMCA Renewal Prospects
When the USMCA was renegotiated in 2020, it added a sunset review process under which all three countries — the U.S., Mexico and Canada — are to meet on 1 July to indicate whether they want to renew the pact for another 16 years. That deadline is coming up in nine days, and Trump ha...
USMCA: A Review or a Renegotiation?
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) enters its mandated six-year review on 1 July. The original intent of the review is outlined in Article 34.7, which obligates members to: Provide recommendations and decide on appropriate actions. Extend the USMCA for another 16 years and meet aga...
U.S. Juneteenth Holiday
The CBOT/CME markets and our offices will be closed tomorrow, Friday, 19 June in observance of the U.S. Juneteenth holiday. Please note that the next Ag Perspectives will be published on Monday, 22 June. ...
Naturally Resilient Crops Are Key to Drought Mitigation
Key Takeaways: Drought remains a major threat to global agricultural production, particularly in regions with limited rainfall and growing water scarcity. Commercially available drought-tolerant traits in corn, soybeans, and wheat have generally delivered modest yield improvements, limiting th...
Port of Chancay's Success Hinges on Inland Infrastructure
Key Takeaways: China has invested heavily in the Port of Chancay to strengthen trade links between South America and Asia. The port could reduce shipping times to China by up to two weeks and improve export competitiveness. Inland transportation infrastructure remains the primary obstacle to r...
New Agreements on Iran War and EU Tariffs, Questions Remain
The U.S. and Iran announced a framework peace deal. Crude oil futures dropped to $83.08, the lowest since early March. The breakthrough comes as President Trump said that if Iran failed to reach a deal, he would order renewed military attacks. An LNG tanker chartered by India’s Petronet c...
Vertical Farming: A Promising Concept Held Back by Economic Challenges
Key Takeaways: Vertical farming offers year-round production, reduced water use, and the ability to grow fresh produce closer to consumers. High electricity consumption for lighting and climate control has proven to be the industry's biggest obstacle to profitability. Large upfront investments...
Policy Roundup: NWS, Section 122 Tariffs, and Dairy Producer Agenda
New World Screwworm Another day, another case of New World Screwworm. USDA has reported nine cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the U.S. Of the nine reported cases, eight are located across four counties in Texas—Edwards, Gillespie, La Salle, and Zavala. Of the eight cases in Texas, si...
Regenerate, or not? You Get to Choose
It is easy to get overwhelmed by the debates surrounding farm policy and crop production, especially the current back-and-forth about regenerative agriculture. Regeneration appears to be the word of the decade, the one that won’t go away. Its ubiquity cannot be ignored; in the same way we...
Then, Now and Next - Final Thoughts
Why read this? Because Mark Twain correctly noted that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” One of the most successful commodity traders and an eventual analyst at WPI was Bob Kohlmeyer. He was a history major from Princeton. After 47 years of profession...
Celebrating Gary Blumenthal’s Retirement After a Storied Career
After more than 40 years serving the agricultural industry and leading World Perspectives, Inc., Gary Blumenthal is retiring. His career—which included time on Capitol Hill, at USDA and the White House—helped shape U.S. and international agricultural policy and guided strategic disc...
China Market Analysis
Miscellaneous Initial excitement over China’s pledges to buy American farm products has faded, as no purchases have immediately materialized. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden said he is confident that China will meet its purchase commitments from the U.S., but market conditions and tra...