China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
China Market Analysis
Farm Policy Next week is China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ (the People’s Congress plus a consultative body) where Beijing releases its next Five-Year Plan. It has already released its 15th Five-Year Plan for agriculture. It reflects the nation’s evolution from a develo...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Tariff Impacts; HPF: the New Climate Change
Tariff Impacts Calculating the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs is heavy fodder for economists. Many made predictions about their impacts long before the rubber even met the road. Predictions of a tariff-caused recession have been debunked, and there is little impact on inflation. Now...
China Market Analysis
Corn/Feed USDA reports that Chinese domestic production of corn and wheat exceeds demand, but that barley is in a supply deficit and must be imported. China’s overall feed production is growing faster than its meat and egg output. China’s corn crop has been damaged by wetness, and i...
House Farm Bill Text Released
Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), released the text of the farm bill on Friday. Markup is scheduled for next week. Some key highlights are shown below. Commodities: Directs reporting on dairy production expenses to ensure that producer costs ar...
President's Day
In observance of Presidents’ Day, both the CME/CBOT and our offices will be closed on Monday, 16 February. The next edition of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 17 February...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
Sovereignty and Competitiveness; USMCA Battle
Sovereignty and Competitiveness So-called food sovereignty has animated European politics for decades. Now there is AI sovereignty because English is annoying or a national security risk. Taxes, regulations, and fines are thrown at dominant foreign companies to the point that Bloomberg says som...
A Year in Review: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Processing Machinery
We now have nearly a year of data to work with on the impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. When they were first announced, there was quite a bit of conjecture and some sophisticated economic analysis about how trade flows would be impacted. This brief analysis will focus br...
WPI Website Security Update - 10 February
On the morning of 9 February, WPI identified unauthorized activity on our website server. Upon discovery, we immediately secured the website and server, took the necessary and advisable steps to examine the environment for comprimises, and deployed the website to a new, secure server. Our...
New World Screwworm Facility in the U.S.
In June 2025, Secretary Rollins announced a five-pronged plan to enhance USDA’s ability to detect, control, and eliminate NWS. As part of that announcement, she also shared plans to build a sterile NWS fly dispersal facility in South Texas. That announcement was made on 30 January, when U...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dim Sums report that Chinese propaganda’s focus on soybean self-sufficiency has faded as Brazil has become the top foreign supplier. In short, dependence on a main rival for a staple crop was the problem. China’s self-sufficiency in soybeans in 2025 was 16.2 percent, versus...
Argentina Beef Imports Outlook for 2026
At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., urged producers to expand the beef herd in a “fireside chat” with National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Buck Wehrbein. Kennedy, however, acknowledged that he...
New Trade Agreements
Just as Donald Trump’s dismantling of the world order is said to have motivated Europe’s conclusion of trade agreements with Mercosur and India, his trade agreements with India and Argentina are thought to have been motivated by Europe’s trade moves. A novel question: who is f...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...
China Market Analysis
Iran War The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran are said to complicate the visit later this month by President Trump to China. As an ally of Iran and a major purchaser of its oil, China has an acute interest in the current war. It is especially being harmed by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
Market Commentary: Crude Oil Rally and Crash Drives Whipsaw CBOT Action
The massive rally in energy markets remains the primary story underpinning ag markets. Front-month crude oil futures ripped higher overnight and traded above $100/brl for the first time since July 2022 before scoring an overnight high just shy of $120/brl. That strength pulled ag markets &ndash...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Farm Bill Clears House of Representatives
After two days of mark-up, the so-called “skinny farm bill,” the Farm, Food, and National Security Act, cleared the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee by a vote of 34-17, with 7 Democrats joining all 27 Republicans voting in favor. It will now move to the House floor and...
Market Commentary: Middle East Turmoil Keeps Commodities Higher
War-related upward pressure in petroleum prices continues to provide support to grain prices. Brent crude oil hit $85/barrel and WTI crude rose 8.5 percent, its biggest jump since July 2024 and the first time above $80/barrel in over a year. HRW hit its highest price in a year, corn broke throu...
Market Commentary: Geopolitics, Energy, and Macro Correlations Shape Agricultural Markets
Key Market Developments Markets opened mixed after reports that Iran signaled a willingness to discuss ending the conflict with the United States. Sentiment improved further after President Trump stated that U.S. strikes had significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities and outlined meas...
Old World Order; People Not Plants; Tariff Refunds
Old World Order The geopolitical impacts of the war on Iran continue, but Wall Street recovered today, aided by strong employment data. Iran announced a ban on food exports to protect its own food security. The measure will impact sales of saffron, pistachios, dates, and other products. While o...
Market Commentary: Fundamentals in the Backseat; Conflict Impacts Driving Markets
Four days into the U.S.-Iran conflict, it is becoming apparent that the conflict will last longer than a few days, and impacts could be more widespread than expected. That sentiment drove macroeconomic and commodity futures markets on Tuesday, which meant risk-off trading in the macro sector an...
China Market Analysis
War and China The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran also involve China, tangentially if not directly. Iran has been supplying about 13.4 percent of China’s oil imports, roughly 1 million barrels per day. The attacks follow the U.S. removal of Venezuela’s leader, a country that is a s...
Schumer Planning a Bill to Force Divestiture in Meat Industry
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is currently seeking co-sponsors for a bill he will introduce as early as Thursday of this week, the Family Grocer and Farmer Relief Act. The plan promises to “break up dominant meatpackers, rein in foreign-controlled corporate giants, and use...
Market Commentary: Gulf Conflict Creates Volatility but Little Support for Grains
The primary drivers of Monday’s grain trade were, of course, the U.S. and Israel’s weekend attacks on Iran that killed the latter country’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and the subsequent cascade of impacts on global markets. WPI covers these impacts in more detail in our nearby ar...
Conflict in the Gulf: Impacts on Shipping and Energy
For weeks now, global energy and geopolitical markets have been speculating about a possible conflict in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., but they still seemed unprepared and entirely surprised by what happened this weekend. Without going into the details that news outlets have alrea...
Transatlantic Sensitivities; Political Calculations
Transatlantic Sensitivities The frustration between the U.S. and Europe runs both ways, but the calculation is still one of mutual need, as articulated by American Secretary of State Marco Rubio at last month’s Munich Security Conference. Two recent data points will exasperate the White H...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Cold Storage Report: Up over Last Month, Down on the Year
The Cold Storage report for January showed that red meat and poultry supplies rose from the month ending December, but total supplies are down from a year ago and well below the 5-year average. Total supplies were 1.878 billion pounds, down 2.5 percent from a year ago. This indicates a tighteni...
Policy Roundup
Fuzzy Math Among President Trump’s various assertions in last night’s State of the Union address was that tariffs would someday replace the income tax, but that is a mathematical impossibility. The value of imported goods is around $3 trillion, and the income tax generates nearly $5...
China Market Analysis
Farm Policy Next week is China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ (the People’s Congress plus a consultative body) where Beijing releases its next Five-Year Plan. It has already released its 15th Five-Year Plan for agriculture. It reflects the nation’s evolution from a develo...
Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs: Out with Old, In with New
Last Thursday, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld a lower court ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were “contrary to the law.” However, as President Trump noted, the opinion remained silent on the issue of rebatin...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Cattle on Feed Report: Bullish Outlook
USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report was released Friday. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.5 million head, unchanged from last month, but 98 percent of last year. Marketings totaled 1.63 million head, or 87 percent of last year, in li...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Tariff Impacts; HPF: the New Climate Change
Tariff Impacts Calculating the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs is heavy fodder for economists. Many made predictions about their impacts long before the rubber even met the road. Predictions of a tariff-caused recession have been debunked, and there is little impact on inflation. Now...
China Market Analysis
Corn/Feed USDA reports that Chinese domestic production of corn and wheat exceeds demand, but that barley is in a supply deficit and must be imported. China’s overall feed production is growing faster than its meat and egg output. China’s corn crop has been damaged by wetness, and i...
House Farm Bill Text Released
Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), released the text of the farm bill on Friday. Markup is scheduled for next week. Some key highlights are shown below. Commodities: Directs reporting on dairy production expenses to ensure that producer costs ar...
President's Day
In observance of Presidents’ Day, both the CME/CBOT and our offices will be closed on Monday, 16 February. The next edition of Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 17 February...
Who is Paying for U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of the year to 13 percent by year-end. It then spiked in April and May, when tariffs on Chinese goods were raised by 125 percentage points, before being reversed by 115 percentage points...
Sovereignty and Competitiveness; USMCA Battle
Sovereignty and Competitiveness So-called food sovereignty has animated European politics for decades. Now there is AI sovereignty because English is annoying or a national security risk. Taxes, regulations, and fines are thrown at dominant foreign companies to the point that Bloomberg says som...
A Year in Review: Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Processing Machinery
We now have nearly a year of data to work with on the impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs. When they were first announced, there was quite a bit of conjecture and some sophisticated economic analysis about how trade flows would be impacted. This brief analysis will focus br...
WPI Website Security Update - 10 February
On the morning of 9 February, WPI identified unauthorized activity on our website server. Upon discovery, we immediately secured the website and server, took the necessary and advisable steps to examine the environment for comprimises, and deployed the website to a new, secure server. Our...
New World Screwworm Facility in the U.S.
In June 2025, Secretary Rollins announced a five-pronged plan to enhance USDA’s ability to detect, control, and eliminate NWS. As part of that announcement, she also shared plans to build a sterile NWS fly dispersal facility in South Texas. That announcement was made on 30 January, when U...
China Market Analysis
Soybeans Dim Sums report that Chinese propaganda’s focus on soybean self-sufficiency has faded as Brazil has become the top foreign supplier. In short, dependence on a main rival for a staple crop was the problem. China’s self-sufficiency in soybeans in 2025 was 16.2 percent, versus...
Argentina Beef Imports Outlook for 2026
At the 2026 Cattle Industry Convention, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., urged producers to expand the beef herd in a “fireside chat” with National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) President Buck Wehrbein. Kennedy, however, acknowledged that he...
New Trade Agreements
Just as Donald Trump’s dismantling of the world order is said to have motivated Europe’s conclusion of trade agreements with Mercosur and India, his trade agreements with India and Argentina are thought to have been motivated by Europe’s trade moves. A novel question: who is f...
Biofuels Policy: 45Z and E15
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has signed off on a rule for the 45Z tax credit. The credit was created by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 during the Biden Administration for the production and sale of low-emission transportation fuels. It was updated and extended as part of the r...