FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 28 May)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Greer Approval; Tariffs and Trading Partners; Executive Power; Tech Reality
Greer Approval Jamieson Greer is expected to win approval from the Senate Finance Committee tomorrow to become the next U.S. Trade Representative. His hearing last week was notable mostly for the dissatisfaction in the Congress over trade policy under Biden and now under Trump. Former USTR Kath...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
Japan Boosts Corn and Protein
Japan’s population is declining by a half percent per year and will be 2 million smaller this year than in 2020. Nearly a third of the population is over 65 years of age, adding to the lower food demand factors. Yet the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreig...
Eat Your Rice
South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing food products made from rice flour. Rice production is dropping as population growth has stalled, but rice consumption is dropping even faster...
Grain Substitution
Grain producers saw the value of their output fall in 2023 and the best they can hope for in 2024 is to stem the bleeding. Meanwhile, Europeans are frustrated as the price of cocoa has risen more than 50 percent over the past year. Asians are frightened as the price of rice has risen nearly 40...
Fostering Rice for Flour Unsustainable
South Korea has had a problem. Its farmers insist on growing rice while its consumers are increasingly switching consumption to wheat-based products. For the second time in recent years the government has contrived a subsidy plan to reduce rice output in favor of wheat or soybeans. It provides...
Tangential Rice Market Impacts
Given current tight global rice stocks and high prices (see graph below), the question is how much wheat will be substituted for food or feed use. Rice prices have dropped since their peak early this year, but wheat is still 35 percent cheaper by weight than rice as a food grain. It is one reas...
Vietnam’s Steady Growth
USDA/FAS forecasts Vietnam’s feed demand to grow to 26.6 MMT. This is largely pushed by a 3.3 percent expansion in pig production, and poultry rising by 2.3 percent. The overall economy is forecast to grow by 5 percent this year. Over the most recent four-year period, soybean imports are...
Rice Signals Future
Global rice stocks are down just 2.7 percent this year, but the drop is larger in key rice consuming countries, plus the largest rice exporting nation, India, imposed an export restriction. This has caused an exaggerated response in price with global values rising 29 percent year-on-year. ...
Rice Constrained
The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice after China, and this purchase will ensure it is a record year for Philippine imports. For most staple commodities, this is not a large volu...
Similarities of Farming and Manufacturing
Debate around the reauthorization of the U.S. farm bill is focused on the legislation’s two major functions, domestic food assistance and farm price supports. The former involves Republicans trying to reduce the most generous portions of what amounts to 81 percent of farm bill spending, a...
Türkiye’s Higher Wheat Flour Exports
Türkiye is the world’s largest exporter of wheat flour, and the International Grains Council says the country will export a record 5.4 MMT in MY 2023/24. That is up 12.5 percent from MY 2022/23. Part of the reason is a bumper domestic wheat crop based largely on higher yield. Rains a...
Forever Poor
Dhaka’s The Daily Star reports that Bangladesh seeks to avoid the increased trade disciplines that comes with the country’s elevation above least developed status. Except for the covid lockdown period, Bangladesh’s economy has been growing at 7 percent or better each year. Off...
South Korean Beef Supply
South Korea imposed increased inspection requirements on U.S> supplied beef following the finding of an atypical BSE case in South Carolina. Atypical cases occur spontaneously and, importantly, rarely. The U.S. remains in the category of being a negligible risk for BSE according to World Org...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 28 May)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App **** Note: After our recent website update, we're having difficulty correctly linking the app to this page. Until we get this fixed, please visit the app directly via the link below. *** https://worldperspectives.shinyapps.io/Combined_FOB_Price_...
Market Commentary: Technical Buying Drives Grains, Livestock Higher
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday as bulls emerged from a two-day respite as technical conditions remained favorable. Perhaps the biggest news of the day was that U.S. officials are in Japan for trade negotiation discussions, a key development for a historically significant partner and the se...
Livestock Roundup: High Prices and China Persist
What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided atte...
Section 301 Measures Will Fail to Make America Great Again
The U.S. grain export industry – and the transportation sector broadly – are increasingly concerned about the USTR’s proposed Section 301 measures in connection to the “Investigation of China's Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance&...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA reduced U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 season by 15 million bushels and increased imports by 10 million bushels. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18 percent from last year. Thus, the U.S. season-average farm price is re...
Greer Approval; Tariffs and Trading Partners; Executive Power; Tech Reality
Greer Approval Jamieson Greer is expected to win approval from the Senate Finance Committee tomorrow to become the next U.S. Trade Representative. His hearing last week was notable mostly for the dissatisfaction in the Congress over trade policy under Biden and now under Trump. Former USTR Kath...
WASDE Soybeans - Nov 2024
WASDE Soybeans – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is a decrease of 80 million bushels in U.S. soybean ending stocks to 470 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at...
WASDE Wheat - Nov 2024
WASDE Wheat – USDA’s latest November estimate for the 2024/25 season is for an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. U.S. wheat exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bush...
Bangladesh Food Import Projection
Bangladesh is the third largest food importer in the world. It imports over $15 billion worth of food annually or about 11 percent of its total food consumption. Imports include 5 MMT of grain (3.57 MMT is wheat), plus palm oil, milk powder, and other products. Roughly 3.5 percent of its food i...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 9 August)
*** Developer Note ***This app is deprecated as of 13 August 2024 and will no longer be updated. Ocean Freight Comments - 9 August 2024By Matt HerringtonDry-bulk markets continue to chop sideways with gains one week yielding losses the next before gains emerge again. This past week was one...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
Japan Boosts Corn and Protein
Japan’s population is declining by a half percent per year and will be 2 million smaller this year than in 2020. Nearly a third of the population is over 65 years of age, adding to the lower food demand factors. Yet the latest Global Agricultural Information Network report from the Foreig...
Eat Your Rice
South Korea wants more rice to be consumed and is subsidizing rice for college students, the cohort least likely to eat breakfast, and is incentivizing food products made from rice flour. Rice production is dropping as population growth has stalled, but rice consumption is dropping even faster...
Grain Substitution
Grain producers saw the value of their output fall in 2023 and the best they can hope for in 2024 is to stem the bleeding. Meanwhile, Europeans are frustrated as the price of cocoa has risen more than 50 percent over the past year. Asians are frightened as the price of rice has risen nearly 40...
Fostering Rice for Flour Unsustainable
South Korea has had a problem. Its farmers insist on growing rice while its consumers are increasingly switching consumption to wheat-based products. For the second time in recent years the government has contrived a subsidy plan to reduce rice output in favor of wheat or soybeans. It provides...
Tangential Rice Market Impacts
Given current tight global rice stocks and high prices (see graph below), the question is how much wheat will be substituted for food or feed use. Rice prices have dropped since their peak early this year, but wheat is still 35 percent cheaper by weight than rice as a food grain. It is one reas...
Vietnam’s Steady Growth
USDA/FAS forecasts Vietnam’s feed demand to grow to 26.6 MMT. This is largely pushed by a 3.3 percent expansion in pig production, and poultry rising by 2.3 percent. The overall economy is forecast to grow by 5 percent this year. Over the most recent four-year period, soybean imports are...
Rice Signals Future
Global rice stocks are down just 2.7 percent this year, but the drop is larger in key rice consuming countries, plus the largest rice exporting nation, India, imposed an export restriction. This has caused an exaggerated response in price with global values rising 29 percent year-on-year. ...
Rice Constrained
The Philippines Department of Agriculture announced the need to import another 500 KMT of rice. The country is already the second largest importer of rice after China, and this purchase will ensure it is a record year for Philippine imports. For most staple commodities, this is not a large volu...
Similarities of Farming and Manufacturing
Debate around the reauthorization of the U.S. farm bill is focused on the legislation’s two major functions, domestic food assistance and farm price supports. The former involves Republicans trying to reduce the most generous portions of what amounts to 81 percent of farm bill spending, a...
Türkiye’s Higher Wheat Flour Exports
Türkiye is the world’s largest exporter of wheat flour, and the International Grains Council says the country will export a record 5.4 MMT in MY 2023/24. That is up 12.5 percent from MY 2022/23. Part of the reason is a bumper domestic wheat crop based largely on higher yield. Rains a...
Forever Poor
Dhaka’s The Daily Star reports that Bangladesh seeks to avoid the increased trade disciplines that comes with the country’s elevation above least developed status. Except for the covid lockdown period, Bangladesh’s economy has been growing at 7 percent or better each year. Off...
South Korean Beef Supply
South Korea imposed increased inspection requirements on U.S> supplied beef following the finding of an atypical BSE case in South Carolina. Atypical cases occur spontaneously and, importantly, rarely. The U.S. remains in the category of being a negligible risk for BSE according to World Org...