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Ag Review: Agribusiness Margins in the Face of Uncertainty

WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness

A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance.

The Grain Industry

Low prices are leading farmers to pursue cost-cutting decisions. In turn, this will pressure margins at all levels of the farm economy, especially seed and other farm input suppliers.

Oilseed Processing

Positive domestic and global factors should all overcome the record U.S. soybean crop and bode well for U.S. soybean farmers, exporters, processors and animal producers.

The U.S. Biofuels Industry

By 30 November, the EPA will release the final Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) rule for biofuel use under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), and the question that remains is whether there will be a change in these volumes.

The U.S. Livestock Industry

Production and supply of all three major proteins are growing, aided by low feed costs that will extend into next year. U.S. domestic consumption is also rising with moderating prices, and exports are projected to increase for 2017, helping to find a home for new larger supplies.

Farm Inputs

Burdensome supplies are chasing insufficient demand, while a projected crude oil price recovery has been elusive and hardly supportive to fertilizer prices. However, falling natural gas prices are improving nitrogen production margins.

Policy Trends

Donald Trump’s surprise election alters the glide path for U.S. policy with positive, negative and uncertain impacts.

Trends and Agribusiness

Mergers and acquisitions in agribusiness are driven by a myriad of factors, and this year's merger activity is no exception. An evaluation of historic mergers, their rationales and impacts provides insight into the future of agribusiness around the world.

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Summary of Futures

Please refer to Summary Page...

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From WPI Consulting

Infrastructure investment due diligence

On behalf of a Canadian oilseed processer WPI's team provided market analysis, econometric modeling and financial due diligence in support of a $24 million-dollar investment in a Ukrainian crush plant. Consistent with WPI's findings, local production to supply the plant and the facility's output have expanded exponentially since the investment. WPI has conducted parallel work on behalf of U.S., South American and European clients, both private and public, in the agri-food space.

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