GDP for Q4 2022 will come out on Thursday of this week; the consensus expectations is for 2.5 percent growth. But the question is what lies ahead for 2023? Consider, since Q3 2020, a huge increase in the M2money supply pulled the economy out of the Q2 COVID lockdown recession. That lead to growth, but it also lead to inflation in 2021 and 2022.
A good illustration of the inflationary impact comes from looking at the velocity of M2, i.e., how many times a dollar turns over in the economy per quarter. In 2019, one dollar would turnover between 1.4 and 1.45 times. Since COVID, the velocity ratio has been under 1.2 times. A good way to look at that is: with a higher supply of money and a lower velocity consumers are not buying more stuff, t...
What You Need to Know Today: The hot, dry weather forecast continues to drive strength in grain futures with corn and soybeans hitting another day of strong gains. Monday’s Crop Progress and Conditions data were in line with market expectations and showed relatively few concerns for the...
Yesterday we wrote about the Q1 GDP numbers and the June employment reports in an article entitled Real GDP for Q1 Relying on AI Buildout, Held Back by Consumer Spending. That article mentioned that consumer spending had become a drag on GDP. Nonetheless, real GDP in Q1 was revised upward to 2...
Key Takeaways: The Middle East and North Africa's arid climate and limited water resources have created a structural dependence on imported wheat. Government wheat tenders in major importing countries serve as important benchmarks for global trade, providing insight into exporter competitivene...
