GDP for Q4 2022 will come out on Thursday of this week; the consensus expectations is for 2.5 percent growth. But the question is what lies ahead for 2023? Consider, since Q3 2020, a huge increase in the M2money supply pulled the economy out of the Q2 COVID lockdown recession. That lead to growth, but it also lead to inflation in 2021 and 2022.
A good illustration of the inflationary impact comes from looking at the velocity of M2, i.e., how many times a dollar turns over in the economy per quarter. In 2019, one dollar would turnover between 1.4 and 1.45 times. Since COVID, the velocity ratio has been under 1.2 times. A good way to look at that is: with a higher supply of money and a lower velocity consumers are not buying more stuff, t...
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
Key Takeaways: On Friday afternoon, President Trump announced that Russia will “immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel” to the United States. The deal, typical of this administration, is light on details but promises an additional 500,000 tons in November and 1 m...
The USDA has lowered its 2026 red meat production forecasts slightly while forecasting a slight increase in broiler production. Beef is now projected at 24.802 billion pounds, 75 million pounds less than in September. Cow slaughter is expected to be up; however, this will be offset by lower ste...
