The continuing decline in wheat, corn and soybean prices is good news for the world’s consumers, but it is very bad news for the world’s producers. Hardly a day has gone by recently without a reminder that world crop production prospects for 2019 are much better than last year. World consumption of virtually every agricultural crop continues to set records every year. Annual soybean consumption increases have been especially significant, led of course by China.

The assumption a year ago was that Chinese soybean imports would exceed 100 MMT this marketing year. The latest USDA estimate is significantly lower at 88 MMT, but that could still be too large as the African swine fever (ASF) problem is worsening instead of improving...