.S. soybean supplies at the end of MY 2019/20 could exceed a record 1 billion bushels. However, the following factors could change that outlook:

A steep reduction in U.S. plantings coupled with a yield problem A continuation and worsening of the dry weather across Brazil A quick end to the China trade dispute and a corresponding sharp increase in U.S. soybean exports to that country

The table below is our first glance at the potential U.S. soybean balance sheet for that marketing year, which includes several key elements. First, there is a 2.1-million-acre reduction from 2018, although some analysts think the decrease could reach 4 million acres. Our hesitance to cut acres that much is based on soybeans’ general profitability...