Russian Grain Markets: 4 – 8 November 2024We have heard the voices from various sources forecasting a new grain crop in Russia and most of them differ in numbers. We will have to deal with terminology like bunker weight (straight from the combine) and standard weight (cleaned and dried accepted by the storage facility,) and geopolitical terms like “new regions”, occupied territories, and Crimea. Some include both and some include only certain territories.Russian Grain Union (RGU) downgraded the grain crop in standard weight not bunker weight to 126 MMT, reporting that 98 percent of the crop has been harvested. RGU forecasts export potential of Russia at 56 MMT of which 45 MMT is wheat. As of 1 November, Russia already exported 25.1 MMT whic...
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Key Takeaways: Russia recently said it would convert existing export terminals in the Baltic and Arctic Seas to handle grain as the Black and Azov Seas remain closed to maritime trade. Futures markets reacted negatively to this news, but does the conversion matter to short-term and long-...
Key Takeaways: 1 September corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels, 171 million above expectations and 544 million above last year, providing additional cushion for the 2026/27 balance sheet and potentially adding near-term pressure to prices. June-August corn disappearance increased just 10...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.