The long-term CR is likely to be based on the budget resolution, and the cuts to mandatory spending are likely to be in any such legislation that appears in December, creating the same battle as last year (only on slightly different parliamentary turf) that led to a government shutdown.

Here’s an update on fiscal policy, which will be the primary issue in Congress over the last few months of the current session. First, Congress passed a clean continuing resolution (CR) last week; clean means that it was strictly limited to funding the government without making any policy changes, budgetary or otherwise. That avoided a government shutdown on the first day of the new fiscal year, 1 October. Recall that one occurred last year due to a...