Canada will hold its federal parliamentary election on Monday 21 October. Polling shows a tight race. The latest 10 major published polls (for what polling is worth) conducted from 11 through 16 October shows the following:

Overnight tracking this week by CBC shows the Liberal Party moving up by 1 point and the Conservative Party moving down by 1 point. With both parties under 33 percent, no party is likely to get a majority of Parliament’s 338 seats resulting in a minority government. A loss for the Trudeau government would be a major shift; the Liberal Party now has 177 seats compared to the Conservative Party’s 95 (there are five vacant seats currently). It is worth noting that since 1935 no sitting Prime Minister with an...