Pasture conditions are deteriorating as 2023 comes to a close and the grazing season closes out. This has potential implications for the rebuilding of the cattle herd. As of 15 October, conditions have improved over the last three years, but are not back to pre-drought levels. Going into the winter without sufficient forage is clearly an obstacle to herd expansion – and the reason why beef cow slaughter peaked in Q4 in all but six of the last 50 years. How much it peaks is something to watch this year.

One positive is that hay supplies are up. Production in 2023 is up 10 percent for alfalfa and 8.1 percent for other hay. But the bigger question with beef cattle herd rebuilding leads to question about the structure of the cow calf s...