With the Good Friday holiday tomorrow, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report, detailing the number on feed as of 1 April, today after the markets close. Pre-report forecasts peg the total inventory in feedlots of 1,000 head capacity at 101.8 percent of last year. Note that the previous month’s report was expected to show a slight reduction, but it instead came in with the 27th straight month of year-over-year increases.

Despite the continuing expansion of cattle on feed inventory (assuming the expectations are correct this month), there are several factors to consider in the cattle market equation. First, the African swine fever (ASF) situation in China increases export demand for pork and helps ensure both pork and h...