Declining feed costs and higher prices for feeder cattle and cull cows have lifted WPI’s expectations of cow/calf profitability for 2020. Compared to our forecast one month ago, the “average” producer in Kansas is expected to lose $1.94/cow unit in 2020, an $18/cow unit improvement over the June forecast. More significantly, cow/calf producers are forecast to have returns $58 larger than was forecast this time last year. The improving profitability will be a welcome development for producers in Kansas and around the U.S. (who face similar but not necessarily equal profitability forecasts) after three consecutive years of negative returns. Since June, expected per-cow revenues have increased $7.74 thanks to firming f...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.